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Squamous cell carcinoma-antigen messenger RNA level in peripheral blood predicts recurrence after resection in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to clarify whether preoperative squamous cell carcinoma-antigen messenger RNA (SCC-Ag mRNA) level in peripheral blood can be used to predict tumor recurrence after curative resection for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. METHODS: A prospective analysis was conducted for 46 consecutive patients who underwent curative esophagectomy and who had no residual tumor. The SCC-Ag mRNA level in the peripheral blood of each patient was measured preoperatively by using quantitative reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction. Median follow-up period was 34 months. RESULTS: Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated that the optimal cutoff level of SCC-Ag mRNA was 40. Patients were divided into the high SCC-Ag mRNA level group (n = 14) and the low SCC-Ag mRNA level group (n = 32). The cumulative probabilities of tumor recurrence were higher in the high SCC-Ag mRNA level group (probability of recurrence was 71% at 2 years) than in the low group (22% at 2 years; P = .0005). SCC-Ag mRNA level (relative risk, 3.00; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-8.54; P = .040) was the strongest independent predictor of recurrence by multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative SCC-Ag mRNA levels in the peripheral blood are the best predictive factor for recurrence in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who undergo curative resection (R0).

Aged↗

Absence of HER4 expression predicts recurrence of ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast.

The type 1 tyrosine kinase receptor HER2 (c-erbB2/neu) is associated with resistance to hormone therapy and poor survival in invasive breast cancer, whereas HER4 expression is associated with endocrine responsiveness. Patterns of tyrosine kinase receptor coexpression may aid prediction of recurrence risk after surgery for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Women who had undergone surgery for pure DCIS were studied. Out of 129 primary tumors, 39 had recurred and 90 had not recurred after 5 years of follow-up. Primary tumors were compared for HER2, HER3, and HER4, estrogen receptor, and Ki67 by immunohistochemistry. HER2 was expressed in 58%, HER3 in 49%, and HER4 in 63% of nonrecurrent DCIS, compared with HER2 expression in 82% (P = 0.008), HER3 expression in 71% (P = 0.04), and HER4 expression in 36% (P = 0.004) in DCIS that subsequently recurred. Dually expressing HER2/4 DCIS was more likely to be estrogen receptor positive than HER2-only-expressing DCIS (73% versus 53%; P = 0.05). HER2 expression was associated with a higher percentage and HER4 expression a significantly lower percentage of proliferating DCIS cells (median, 13.8% versus 8.4%; P = 0.001). Coexpression of HER2 with HER4 was associated with reduced recurrence compared with HER2-only positive DCIS (P = 0.003). This association remained significant when analyzing only high nuclear-grade DCIS (P = 0.015). Low nuclear grade, low proliferation rate and presence of HER4 expression were independent predictors of nonrecurrence. Potentially, HER4 expression may identify women who could avoid radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery for DCIS.

Adult↗

Psychological distress and fatigue predicted recurrence and survival in primary breast cancer patients.

This study examined whether psychological distress in newly diagnosed breast cancer patients was associated with their survival. We analyzed data from 1,588 breast cancer patients who filled in the EORTC QLQ-C30 questionnaire and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) 2 months after their primary operation. The median follow-up time was 12.9 years. Psychological distress (EORTC QLQ-C30 emotional function; HADS anxiety; HADS depression) and EORTC fatigue, physical function, and overall ratings were used to predict recurrence-free and overall survival, controlling for the known clinical and histopathological prognostic factors (biological model) using Cox multivariate regression analysis. Low levels of psychological distress (good EORTC emotional function) and low fatigue independently predicted longer recurrence-free and overall survival, controlling for biological factors. Lack of anxiety (HADS) also predicted longer recurrence-free survival. When added in combination to the biological model, fatigue remained a significant predictor of recurrence-free survival (P = 0.0004; risk ratio 1.32 (1.13-1.54)) and emotional function remained a significant predictor of overall survival (P = 0.0074; risk ratio 0.81 (0.70-0.95)). Low psychological distress and a low level of fatigue may cause a greater cancer resistance or may reflect underlying mental and physical robustness.

Adult↗

P wave signal-averaged electrocardiography predicts recurrence of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation in patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome who underwent successful catheter ablation: a prospective study.

INTRODUCTION: Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) frequently occurs in patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) syndrome. Catheter ablation of the accessory pathway eliminates PAF in some patients, but PAF frequently recurs in other patients. The present study was designed to determine prospectively whether P wave signal-averaged electrocardiography (P-SAECG) predicts the recurrence of PAF after successful ablation in patients with WPW syndrome. METHODS AND RESULTS: Forty-six patients with WPW syndrome who had episodes of PAF were prospectively followed. SAECG recording was performed on day 7 after successful ablation of the accessory pathway at study entry. Abnormal P-SAECG for the prediction of recurrence of PAF was defined as a filtered P wave duration > 130 msec. Eleven patients had an abnormal P-SAECG (group 1), whereas 35 patients (group 2) did not. The two groups did not differ in terms of gender, age, left atrial dimension, and atrial vulnerability as determined by electrophysiologic study. During follow-up (40 +/- 19 months), the recurrence of PAF was noted in 10 (91%) of 11 patients in group 1, whereas it was observed in only 2 (6%) of 35 patients in group 2. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that the recurrence of PAF was significantly more frequent in group 1 than in group 2 (log rank test, P < 0.0001). By multivariate analysis, filtered P wave duration >130 msec was an independent predictor of recurrence of PAF after ablation (Chi-square = 21.5, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The results of this study indicate that P-SAECG may be useful for identifying patients at risk for recurrence of PAF after successful ablation of WPW syndrome.

Adolescent↗

Cathepsin D and epidermal growth factor receptor immunohistochemistry does not predict recurrence of prostate cancer in patients undergoing radical prostatectomy.

PURPOSE: We determined if immunohistochemical expression of the epidermal growth factor receptor and cathepsin D in the primary tumor was of prognostic value in clinically localized prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Immunohistochemical staining for epidermal growth factor receptor and cathepsin D was performed on 105 radical prostatectomy specimens from 2 academic centers. The epidermal growth factor receptor and cathepsin D expressions were graded using H scoring by an experienced pathologist blinded to other patient data, and compared with age, grade, stage, race and initial serologic (prostate specific antigen) recurrence. Univariate and multivariate statistical testing was performed. RESULTS: Immunohistochemically detectable epidermal growth factor receptor and cathepsin D expression was not correlated to age, race, stage or Gleason grade. In univariate and multivariate testing epidermal growth factor receptor and cathepsin D were not prognostic markers for disease progression following radical prostatectomy. CONCLUSIONS: Immunohistochemical analysis of the biomarkers cathepsin D and epidermal growth factor receptor in radical prostatectomy specimens does not predict disease recurrence. Further biological marker study is needed in clinically localized prostate cancer.

Aged↗

Large paraesophageal varices on endosonography predict recurrence of esophageal varices and rebleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recurrence of varices and rebleeding after endoscopic therapy is very common. Data on the prediction of recurrent varices after initial obliteration by endoscopic therapy are few. The aim of this study was to correlate the presence and the size of paraesophageal varices (PEVs) in patients after endoscopic variceal ligation with recurrent varices and rebleeding. METHODS: Forty patients who underwent endoscopic banding ligation for esophageal variceal bleeding were studied by endosonography within 4 weeks after obliteration of varices. PEVs were classified as none, small, or large (maximum diameter, > or =0.5 cm). Esophagoscopy and endosonography were then repeated every 6 months for up to 1 year. RESULTS: Two patients (5%) were not detected to have PEVs. Small and large PEVs were identified in 24 (60%) and 14 (35%) patients, respectively. During the follow-up period of 1-year, recurrent submucosal esophageal varices were detected in 24 patients, including 13 patients (93%) with large PEVs and 11 patients (46%) with no or small PEVs (P = 0.0019). Recurrent bleeding occurred in 6 patients (43%) with large PEVs and in 3 patients (12%) with small PEVs (P = 0.044). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with large PEVs have a higher risk of developing recurrent varices and rebleeding.

Adult↗

Is timing of death from tumor recurrence predictable after curative resection for gastric cancer?

It is still difficult to predict whether cancer in patients who undergo curative gastrectomy for gastric cancer will recur and when they will die of recurrence. This study clarified predictive factors related to timing of death from tumor recurrence. A multivariate analysis was used to assess the dependence of death on postoperative tumor recurrence and were the dependence of the timing of death on tumor recurrence. Patients were divided into two groups according to the timing of death: those who died of tumor recurrence less than 2 years after surgery and those who died more than 2 years after surgery. Depth of cancer invasion, regional lymph node metastasis, and tumor size were independently correlated with tumor recurrence after curative gastrectomy. Onlv the depth of cancer invasion independently correlated with the timing of death due to tumor recurrence. It might be possible to predict the timing of death from tumor recurrence by the depth of cancer invasion into the gastric wall.

Female↗

Pathologic parameters and flow cytometric ploidy analysis in predicting recurrence in carcinoma of the prostate.

Recurrence of prostate cancer following radical prostatectomy is determined by the extent of local disease. Tumor volume and grade have improved our ability to predict extraprostatic extension, but tumors of intermediate volume and grade vary in their biologic behavior. To assess the prognostic significance of DNA ploidy, we performed flow cytometry in 85 patients with prostate cancer volumes > 4 cm3. Post-radical prostatectomy serum prostate-specific antigen was used to prove recurrence of cancer. Mean follow-up was 35 months (median 31 months). 26 patients (30%) had diploid histograms, 55 (65%) non-diploid histograms. In 4 cases (5%) the histograms were uninterpretable. Tumor volume and percent of Gleason grades 4 or 5 separated the recurrent from nonrecurrent groups in a highly significant manner (p < 0.001). When tested alone, ploidy had no ability to predict recurrence (p = 0.26). However, in a subset of patients with 4-8 cm3 of cancer with < 30% Gleason grade 4 or 5 tumor, ploidy conferred significant additional prognostic information (p < 0.005).

DNA, Neoplasm↗

Usefulness of plasma B-type natriuretic peptide in predicting recurrence of atrial fibrillation one year after external cardioversion.

After successful external cardioversion, the rate of recurrence of atrial fibrillation remains high. The hypothesis that plasma B-type natriuretic peptide could predict the recurrence of atrial fibrillation at 1 year was tested. Plasma B-type natriuretic peptide was measured in 66 consecutive asymptomatic patients who underwent external cardioversion for atrial fibrillation. Twelve-lead electrocardiograms were obtained at 1 year. Sinus rhythm was maintained in 55% of patients. The independent predictors of the recurrence of atrial fibrillation at 1 year were a history of atrial fibrillation, plasma B-type natriuretic peptide, and the energy delivered for conversion. In patients without symptoms of heart failure, plasma B-type natriuretic peptide is an independent predictor of the recurrence of atrial fibrillation.

Aged↗

Can Ki-67 predict recurrence of NO squamous cell carcinoma of the tongue?

OBJECTIVES: Ki-67 is a molecular marker of cellular proliferation that predicts prognosis of some head and neck tumors. Studies of Ki-67 in oropharyngeal cancer have yielded conflicting findings. This study was designed to test Ki-67 as a marker for poor prognosis in N0 tongue squamous cell carcinoma. METHODS: We examined 29 cases in a retrospective cohort to test the hypothesis that a high rate of tumor cell proliferation (high levels of Ki-67 staining) at the invasive edge of N0 squamous cell carcinoma of the tongue correlates with increased risk of recurrence. RESULTS: There were 14 cases of recurrence. The average age of the patients with recurrence was 58 years. The average time to recurrence was 13.1 months. A 0% to 33% uptake of Ki-67 at the tumor's leading edge was associated with a 6-times-greater risk of recurrence. The mean length of survival for the group with 0% to 33% uptake was 21 months; for the group with > 33% uptake, it was 33 months. Overall uptake of Ki-67 and histologic grade did not correlate with risk of recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: In this sample, low rates of Ki-67 staining at the invasive edge of the tumor predicted a risk of recurrence. These results need to be confirmed before Ki-67 can be used for predicting recurrence of tongue squamous cell carcinoma.

Adult↗

Factors predicting recurrence of atrial fibrillation after cardioversion.

BACKGROUND: Factors predicting the maintenance of sinus rhythm (SR) after cardioversion of atrial fibrillation (AF) have not been well defined. Little is known about the impact of the recovery of the left atrial mechanical function (RLAMF) on AF recurrences. AIM: To identify the clinical and echocardiographic predictors of AF recurrences after cardioversion. METHODS: Of 112 consecutive patients (39 females, 73 males, mean age 62.1+/-10.6 years) with AF who underwent successful electrical or pharmacological cardioversion, 50 maintained SR during 6 month follow-up whereas the remaining 62 had a recurrence of AF. Clinical examination and 2D Doppler echocardiography were performed. From the Doppler mitral flow, RLAMF was evaluated 1, 7, and 21 days after cardioversion. RESULTS: Patients with or without AF recurrence did not differ with respect to age, gender, aetiology, duration of AF, LA size and ejection fraction. In the univariate analysis the lack of RLAMF detected 1 day after cardioversion (relative risk - RR=1.15, p<0.01), functional NYHA class II or III (RR=1.86, p<0.005) and a history of AF episodes (RR=2.02, p</=0.0005) were identified as the predictors of a recurrence of AF. In the multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazard model the latter two factors remained the independent predictors of AF recurrences during a six-month follow-up period. The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that out of all analysed risk factors, the most significant were functional NYHA class, history of AF and lack of RLAMF one day after cardioversion. CONCLUSIONS: A history of AF, functional NYHA class II or III, and the lack of RLAMF were the independent predictors of a recurrence of AF. The presence of more than one risk factor strongly identified those who failed to maintain SR during six-month follow-up.

Journal Article↗

Doppler ultrasound screening predicts recurrence of poor pregnancy outcome in subsequent pregnancies, but not the recurrence of PIH or preeclampsia.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the role of Doppler uterine artery screening in the prediction of recurring hypertensive disorders in a high-risk population. METHODS: Ninety-four women with a history of hypertensive disorders in previous pregnancies underwent ultrasound color Doppler to analyze blood flow in the uterine arteries at 21-22 weeks of gestation. We evaluated the performance of the Pulsatility Index (PI) as well as the diastolic notch to predict recurring hypertensive disorders. Outcome measures were the recurrence of hypertensive disorders, and poor pregnancy outcome due to intrauterine death growth retardation, intrauterine death, placental abruption, hemolysis, elevated liver enzymes, and low platelets (HELLP) syndrome, eclampsia, or premature birth. Onset of symptoms was before 35 weeks in all cases of poor pregnancy outcome. RESULTS: Doppler flow recordings were obtained from a well-defined location in both uterine arteries. The predictive value of the uterine artery PI for recurring hypertensive disease was poor and not significant; interestingly, however, the predictive values for poor pregnancy outcome were good (sensitivity 83%, specificity 71%, p < 0.001). The PI also provides a good test for intrauterine growth retardation (sensitivity 80%, specificity 69%, p < 0.01). The "diastolic notch" did not perform as well as the PI. CONCLUSIONS: Uterine artery screening did significantly predict the recurrence of poor pregnancy outcome due to hypertensive complications in this high-risk group. In contrast, gestational hypertension and preeclampsia with normal pregnancy outcome were not significantly predicted by uterine artery screening.

Adult↗

The value of serum carcinoembryonic antigen in predicting recurrent disease following curative resection of colorectal cancer.

UNLABELLED: Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) estimations are used to facilitate early diagnosis of recurrent disease after treatment for colorectal cancer. PURPOSE: This study was designed to determine the natural history of patients with normal and abnormal levels of CEA. METHODS: Patients undergoing potential curative resection of colorectal tumors (Dukes Stage A-C) entered a prospective, randomized trial comparing two follow-up regimens (to be reported separately) had CEA levels measured every 3 months for two years; then every 6 months for the next three years. In the study protocol, a rise in CEA was not an indication for investigation to determine recurrence unless there was also other evidence of recurrent disease. RESULTS: Three hundred eleven patients were followed for a median of 4.5 (range, 2-5) years. Recurrent disease developed in 98 (32 percent) patients, 57 of whom had an elevated CEA (sensitivity 58 percent), with a median lead time of six (range, 1-30) months from first abnormal CEA to diagnosis of recurrent disease by other means. The specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of CEA as an indicator of subsequent recurrent disease was 93 percent, 79 percent, and 83 percent, respectively. The sensitivity of CEA for predicting hepatic metastases was 80 percent, with a median lead time of eight (range, 1-30) months, compared with only 46 percent for sites of recurrent disease other than the liver. CONCLUSIONS: CEA was the first indicator of recurrent disease in 58 percent of all patients and in 80 percent of patients with liver metastases. The diagnosis of recurrent disease may be made several months earlier by investigating the first abnormal CEA level, although any benefit in terms of survival remains to be proven.

Aftercare↗

Increased P-wave dispersion predicts recurrent atrial fibrillation after cardioversion.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) will recur in a number of patients treated with cardioversion. Being able to identify reliable risk factors would be useful for making management decisions. P-wave dispersion (PWD) is an electrocardiographic measurement, which reflects a disparity in atrial conduction. P-wave dispersion has been shown to be increased in patients with paroxysmal AF. This pilot study aims to determine the role of PWD in predicting AF recurrence in patients who underwent elective cardioversion. Forty-five patients who were successfully cardioverted for persistent AF were included for study. Eighteen patients had a PWD greater than 80 ms; of these 13 had AF recurrence. Of the 25 patients with PWD less than 80 milliseconds, 12 had recurrent AF. P-wave dispersion values greater than 80 milliseconds were found more frequently in patients with AF recurrence (P = .05), supporting the use of this parameter in predicting return of AF. Larger studies are needed for further evaluation.

Aged↗

Preoperative change of thyroid stimulating hormone receptor antibody level: possible marker for predicting recurrent hyperthyroidism in patients with Graves' disease after subtotal thyroidectomy.

To make the surgical treatment for Graves' disease more ideal, it is important to elucidate factors related to postoperative thyroid dysfunction in addition to thyroid remnant. Because TSH receptor antibody (TRAb) is thought to be one of the essential causes of Graves' disease, we investigated whether preoperative changes in serum TRAb levels are related to postoperative recurrent hyperthyroidism. Between 1987 and 1992 a total of 1520 patients with Graves' disease were treated by subtotal thyroidectomy. Of these patients 335 visited Ito Hospital with no history of drug treatment of their disease and were treated surgically after several courses of antithyroid drug (ATD) therapy. There were 68 males and 267 females with a mean age of 25.8 years. The mean follow-up period was 48 months (range 12-84 months). Factors analyzed by univariate and multivariate analysis were as follows: age, sex, duration of ATD treatment, weight of resected thyroid, weight of thyroid remnant, preoperative titer of MCHA, TRAb at the time of initial examination (TRAb1), TRAb at the time of surgery (TRAb2), and DeltaTRAb, the difference between TRAb1 and TRAb2 (DeltaTRAb = TRAb1 - TRAb2). The chi-square test was used for univariate analysis and a logistic model for multivariate analysis. Of this group, 119 patients were euthyroid (35.5%), 50 were hyperthyroid (14.9%), and 166 were hypothyroid (49.3%). Significant factors related to recurrent hyperthyroidism were weight of thyroid remnant and DeltaTRAb in both univariate and multivariate analyses. DeltaTRAb is a possible new marker for predicting postoperative recurrent hyperthyroidism. If the preoperative TRAb level is not improved by ATDs in patients with Graves' disease, the thyroid remnant should be made smaller.

Adolescent↗

A classification tree for predicting recurrent falling in community-dwelling older persons.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a classification tree for predicting the risk of recurrent falling in community-dwelling older persons using tree-structured survival analysis (TSSA). DESIGN: A prospective cohort study. SETTING: A community in the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: One thousand three hundred sixty-five community-dwelling older persons (>/=65) from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA). MEASUREMENTS: In 1995, physical, cognitive, emotional, and social aspects of functioning were assessed. Subsequently, a prospective fall follow-up, specifically on recurrent falls (two falls within 6 months) was conducted for 3 years. RESULTS: The classification tree included 11 end groups differing in risk of recurrent falling based on a minimum of two and a maximum of six predictors. The first split in the tree involved two or more falls versus fewer than two falls in the year preceding the interview. Respondents with two or more falls in the year preceding the interview (n=193) and with at least two functional limitations (n=98) had a 75% risk of becoming a recurrent faller, whereas respondents with fewer than two functional limitations were further divided into a group with regular dizziness (n=11, risk of 68%) and a group with no regular dizziness (n=84, risk of 30%). In respondents with fewer than two falls in the year preceding the interview (n=1,172), the risk of becoming a recurrent faller varied between 9% and 70%. Predictors in this branch of the tree were low performance, low handgrip strength, alcohol use, pain, high level of education, and high level of physical activity. CONCLUSION: This classification tree included 11 end groups differing in the risk of recurrent falling based on specific combinations of a maximum of six easily measurable predictors. The classification tree can identify subjects who are eligible for preventive measures in public health strategies.

Accidental Falls↗

Platelet activation predicts recurrent ischemic events after percutaneous coronary angioplasty: a 6 months prospective study.

INTRODUCTION: An increasing amount of evidence indicates that platelet reactivity, despite a standard anti-thrombotic therapy, is a potential risk factor for recurrent myocardial ischemia in patients with coronary artery disease. We now hypothesize that this condition, measured by collagen-epinephrine (CEPI) or collagen-ADP (CADP) closure times (CT) by Platelet Function Analyzer (PFA-100), may predict the recurrence of coronary events after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). MATERIALS AND METHODS: CEPI and CADP-CT were measured 30+/-8 h after PCI in 175 consecutive patients admitted with a diagnosis of stable angina (n=94) or acute coronary syndromes (n=81) and prospectively followed up for a mean period of 6 months. We stratified the patients in accordance to both the CEPI-CT ( 190 s), reflecting the intensity of cycloxygenase inhibition by aspirin and the distribution into quartiles for CADP-CT. RESULTS: CEPI-CT<190 s as well as CADP-CT<82 s were associated with a higher rate of clinical recurrence (hazard ratio 8.5, p<0.001 and 22.9, p<0.001, respectively). Multivariate analysis after adjustment for other risk factors confirmed that the lowest CADP-CT quartile significantly correlates with the risk of recurrent coronary events (hazard ratio 36.5, p<0.01), as well as CEPI-CT<190 s (hazard ratio 6.7, p=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: An enhanced platelet function after PCI when measured under high shear rates by PFA-100 is an independent predictor of a worst clinical outcome, even during a short term follow-up and may help in patients risk stratification.

Adenosine Diphosphate↗

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) virus load kinetics to predict recurrent disease in solid-organ transplant patients with CMV disease.

Despite standard therapy, cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease recurs in a significant proportion of organ transplant recipients. The kinetics of CMV load in response to therapy may allow early prediction of recurrence. CMV loads were obtained at regular intervals after starting ganciclovir therapy in 52 transplant recipients with CMV disease. Virus load kinetics were analyzed using decay curves to assess viral dynamics, including half-life and time to viral clearance. Recurrent CMV disease occurred in 12 (23%) of 50 patients. The time period to viral clearance was longer among patients with recurrence of CMV disease (P=.002), and lack of clearance was also associated among patients with disease recurrence (P<.001). Viral kinetics followed a logarithmic decay curve expressed by the equation y=y(0)e(-ax). Virus load half-life was 8.8 days among patients with recurrence versus 3.17 days among patients without recurrence (P=.001). This was not explainable by detectable ganciclovir resistance. CMV load kinetics are useful for identifying, at a very early stage, patients who are more likely to have recurrence.

Antiviral Agents↗