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PubMed2026

Construction of precision clinical-proteomics risk model based on machine learning for predicting heart failure in type II diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Heart failure (HF) is a severe complication in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), but current risk stratification scores have limited predictive accuracy. We aimed to develop novel prediction tools integrating clinical variables with proteomics to improve risk stratification of hospitalization for HF in T2DM. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this study, we included 2111 UK Biobank participants with T2DM but no prior HF, and profiled 2920 proteins to predict 10-year incident HF hospitalization. Participants were randomly divided into training (70%), tuning (10%), and validation (20%) sets.Three prediction models were developed: a Clinical model based on demographic characteristics, comorbidities, medication use, and laboratory indices; a Protein model based on 40 proteins selected by the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM); and the Clinical OMics and Protein ASSessment for Heart Failure (COMPASS-HF) model, which integrated both clinical variables and the LGBM-selected proteins. Models were evaluated for area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity. During follow-up, 168 participants (7.96%) developed incident HF. The COMPASS-HF model showed better discrimination than the Clinical model, with an AUC of 0.897 (95% CI: 0.850-0.945) versus 0.790 (95% CI: 0.723-0.856). It also demonstrated higher sensitivity (0.882; 95% CI: 0.725-0.967) and consistent performance in subgroups. COMPASS-HF effectively stratified risk of hospitalization for HF, with cumulative incidence rates of 31.9% in the high-risk group and 1.2% in the low-risk group. CONCLUSIONS: By combining clinical and proteomic variables, we developed a high-performance HF prediction model for T2DM, enabling precise risk stratification and informing early intervention strategies.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Predictive evolutionary genomics: principles, validation, and practice.

Climate change and habitat loss are driving rapid evolutionary responses in populations world-wide, which creates an urgent need for evolutionary forecasting in conservation and agriculture. Such forecasting can be categorized into three time scales: trait-based models that use multivariate quantitative genetic equations to project correlated phenotypic responses up to c. 20 generations, allele-based analyses that model allele frequency dynamics up to 100 generations, and composite adaptation scores that aggregate many small effects to yield predictions across longer horizons. However, these approaches have remained largely disconnected. Here, we present a Bayesian framework that integrates these three complementary approaches for evolutionary prediction. Our framework combines genomic, phenotypic, and environmental data to yield probabilistic predictions with explicit uncertainty. We show how predictive evolutionary forecasts can be validated with experimental evolution, field experimentation, historical specimens, and reciprocal transplants. These validated forecasts can help advance conservation and agricultural programmes by helping predict which populations are at risk of future extinction, optimizing breeding programmes for future climates, and planning ecosystem management under environmental change. By supporting a shift towards more predictive approaches in evolutionary biology, this framework may help improve our ability to manage biodiversity and food security in a changing world.

Genomics↗
PubMed2025

Predictive Validity of Violence Screening Tools in Emergency and Psychiatric Services: A Systematic Review.

Violence against healthcare staff, including a threat or an act of violence toward people during their work, poses a physical and psychological risk to workers internationally. Screening is an important strategy in preventing violence against healthcare professionals. The aim of this systematic review was to synthesize evidence on the predictive validity of risk assessment tools used to screen for violence and aggression risk toward healthcare workers in emergency and psychiatric departments (PD). Primary studies that examined the predictive validity of risk assessment tools for workplace violence were identified via a systematic search of Medline, PsycINFO, Embase, and the Cochrane databases. There were 62 eligible studies, ten of which had a lower risk of bias (RoB). Those studies with high RoB were primarily due to a failure to present calibration measures as part of the analysis. All included studies adopted a longitudinal design and were conducted in PDs. The ten highest-quality studies reported on eight different instruments, four of which showed acceptable to outstanding predictive performance. The Dynamic Appraisal of Situational Aggression and the Brøset Violence Checklist showed the best predictive performance; they were also validated in emergency departments and are best suited for short-term risk prediction. We recommend that the selection of a risk assessment tool should consider the following: (a) the target population, (b) the violence operationalization, and (c) the purpose of the monitoring. We note that the use of a screening tool should be a part of a multicomponent strategy to ensure staff safety.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Future promise, current clinical ambiguity: a systematic review of machine learning algorithm outputs predicting risk of cardiovascular disease.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether the outputs of machine learning algorithms designed to predict risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) address known deficiencies of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and improve risk estimates. METHODS: For this critical review, Medline, Embase and IEEE were searched from inception to 1 January 2025. Included were studies describing machine learning algorithms designed to specifically compare output of cardiovascular risk assessment with the FRS. Commentaries, letters, unpublished work or non-peer-reviewed papers were excluded.Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, two reviewers screened titles and abstracts independently, then populated a purpose-built data extraction form. A subsequent qualitative thematic analysis focused on algorithms' strengths, added value, potential harms, unintended consequences and equity implications.The main outcome assessed was whether, among healthy adults, the algorithm improved CVD risk prediction relative to the FRS. RESULTS: Of 707 studies retrieved, 29 met inclusion criteria. 23 reported improved predictive ability relative to the FRS. Most datasets and/or medical records used included sociodemographic predictors of CVD not included among FRS inputs. Some added costly diagnostic tests like CT angiography to FRS screening indicators. When they were defined, inputs and outcomes such as hypertension or myocardial infarction did not always adhere to FRS values. Statistical significance was generally taken as a proxy for clinical significance. Some algorithms overestimated the number at risk compared with the FRS without discussing whether that larger proportion might be at risk of overdiagnosis rather than CVD, while a few decreased the proportion found to be at risk. CONCLUSIONS: Use of artificial intelligence to improve accuracy of risk assessment for CVD demonstrates the technological capacity to merge known sociodemographic predictors with biologic variables and examine non-linear interactions among these. Still needed to achieve patient benefit is clinical insight, adherence to screening principles and cost-benefit assessment of inputs selected.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Identification of Cognitive Impairment Risk in Older Adults with Subjective Cognitive Decline：A Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND: Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) is a transitional state between objective cognitive impairment and cognitively intact mental status, providing a critical window for implementing preventive interventions to delay objective cognitive decline. AIMS: We aimed to develop a predictive model for SCD progression in older adults with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). This model will facilitate the identification of risk factors and establishment of targeted interventions for community-based SCD management. METHODS: Data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) was utilized in this study, extracting 18 indicators. Potential predictors selected through univariate Cox regression and LASSO regression analyses were sequentially incorporated into a multivariable Cox regression model. A nomogram was constructed to establish a predictive model. Model validation encompassed Area Under Curve (AUC) metrics for discriminative capacity, complemented by quantitative assessments using calibration curve analysis for precision verification and decision curve analysis (DCA) for clinical utility evaluation. RESULTS: A total of 1099 older adults with SCD were included in the final analysis, of whom 114 (10.3%) developed MCI. Multivariable Cox regression identified residence, marital status, educational level, social participation, gait speed, and baseline cognitive function. The model demonstrated time-dependent AUC values of 0.885, 0.830, 0.839, and 0.836 in the training set when evaluating discriminative capacity at 2-, 4-, 7-, and 9-year, respectively. The predictive model showed excellent predictive ability according to AUC, calibration curve, and DCA. CONCLUSIONS: A predictive model was created to estimate the risk of developing MCI in older individuals with SCD, offering clinician-actionable intervention benchmarks for preventive care.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Predictive Models for Hypoglycemia Risk in Haemodialysis Patients With Diabetic Kidney Disease: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

AIM: To provide evidence for selecting and developing reliable clinical assessment tools for hypoglycemia in diabetic kidney disease patients during haemodialysis. DESIGN: Review. METHODS: Systematic searches were performed in 9 Chinese and English databases to collect literature regarding the development of hypoglycemia risk prediction models in haemodialysis patients with diabetic kidney disease. Two reviewers independently performed literature screening, data extraction, risk-of-bias assessment, and applicability evaluation. The Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool was used to assess the risk of bias and applicability of the included studies. Meta-analysis was conducted using R software. DATA SOURCES: CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, CBM, PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMbase, Web of Science, and CINAHL. The search period covered from the establishment date of each database to December 2025. RESULTS: Six studies, comprising six prediction models, were included. Two studies performed internal validation, and three conducted external validation. All models reported the area under the curve, ranging from 0.813 to 0.866, and calibration measures. Four studies were rated as having a high risk of bias, while all six demonstrated good overall applicability. The meta-analysis showed that the pooled AUC value of the six studies was 0.846 (95% CI: 0.823-0.867). CONCLUSION: Research on hypoglycemia risk prediction models in haemodialysis patients with diabetic kidney disease remains in the developmental stage. Although the included prediction models exhibited satisfactory apparent discriminatory ability and clinical applicability, most of the original studies suffered from a high risk of bias and lacked adequate validation. The true predictive performance and clinical application value of these models remain to be further verified. Accordingly, routine and unconditional clinical application is not recommended at this stage. Future studies should include more high-quality, multicenter external validation and develop models with high generalizability, favourable clinical applicability, and robust predictive performance to facilitate early identification of hypoglycemia risk in this population. IMPACT: This study systematically evaluated the hypoglycemia risk prediction models for diabetic kidney disease patients during haemodialysis, and the research on hypoglycemia risk prediction models for maintenance haemodialysis patients during dialysis is still in the development stage. This study provides a reference for clinical medical staff to select or develop hypoglycemia risk prediction and assessment tools for diabetic kidney disease patients during haemodialysis. REPORTING METHOD: This study was conducted in accordance with the relevant guidelines of the EQUATOR Network and followed the TRIPOD-SRMA Checklist. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: No patient or public contribution. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO: CRD420251243352.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Artificial intelligence in treatment prediction for skeletal Class III malocclusion: A systematic review.

In skeletal Class III patients, treatment options range from orthodontics to orthognathic surgery. Choosing the optimal approach requires a comprehensive clinical evaluation, which may be supported by AI tools. The aim of this study was to assess the performance of AI models in predicting the need for orthognathic surgery and in identifying predictors influencing treatment decisions. A PRISMA-guided electronic database search (PubMed, Web of Science; 2009-2024; English/French) was performed to identify studies using machine learning (ML) or deep learning (DL) on cephalometric and clinical data. After screening and assessment for eligibility, 15 studies were critically appraised. Model performance was summarized using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the curve (AUC). ML algorithms (particularly Random Forest and XGBoost) and DL models (ResNet-based convolutional neural networks (CNNs)) achieved high accuracy for predicting surgical need. Frequently selected predictors included Wits appraisal, ANB angle, the maxillomandibular ratio (Mx/Md), overjet, and the divergence of the lower gonial angle. AI methods show promise for assisting treatment decisions in Class III malocclusion, with Random Forest and XGBoost performing well on tabular cephalometric data and CNNs on imaging. Larger, multicentre datasets and external validation are needed to improve reliability, address bias, and support clinical implementation.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Plasma proteomics reveal SERPINA1 and CD59 as candidate biomarkers for COVID-19 severity stratification and prognosis prediction.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has been closely associated with coagulation abnormalities. However, existing biomarkers, including D-dimer and fibrin degradation products (FDP), exhibit limited accuracy in stratifying disease severity and predicting long-term clinical outcomes. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to use proteomic analysis to identify plasma biomarkers associated with COVID-19 severity and prognosis, and validate their predictive utility for mortality and thromboembolic complications. METHODS: Plasma proteomic profiles were analyzed across three COVID-19 severity classes. Differential expression analysis and functional analysis were performed. Clustering analysis was used to identify proteins correlated with disease severity. Candidate biomarkers were validated in an independent cohort. Predictive performance of the biomarkers for mortality, sepsis and venous thromboembolism was evaluated using bootstrap-corrected ROC analyses and multivariable regression analyses. RESULTS: Proteomic analysis revealed progressive involvement of the coagulation and complement pathway with increasing disease severity. SERPINA1 and CD59 were identified as candidate biomarkers and exhibited significantly higher plasma levels in severe cases. Bootstrap-corrected ROC analyses demonstrated strong predictive performance: SERPINA1 achieved AUCs of 0.775 and 0.924 for 30-day and 12-month mortality, and CD59 achieved AUCs of 0.720 for sepsis; the combined model further improved prediction of 12-month mortality (AUC 0.946) and sepsis (AUC 0.904), outperforming D-dimer and FDP. Multivariable regression confirmed their independent prognostic value. CONCLUSION: This exploratory study identifies SERPINA1 and CD59 as candidate prognostic biomarkers in COVID-19, highlighting the role of coagulation and complement-related pathways in disease severity and warranting further prospective validation.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Predicting ACL injury risk in athletes: A systematic review of machine learning-based models.

BACKGROUND: Early ACL injury risk identification in athletes is essential. This systematic review examines machine learning (ML) models for predicting ACL injuries, evaluating their methodological quality, performance, and reliability. METHOD: A comprehensive electronic search was conducted across PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and IEEE Xplore databases, supplemented by Google Scholar for grey literature, covering articles published between January 1, 2015, and August 30, 2025. Eligible studies were appraised using the Prediction Model Study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) for methodological quality and risk of bias, and the Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines for quality of evidence. RESULTS: Ten studies were included. PROBAST showed eight studies had moderate risk of bias and two low risk. TRIPOD found only two studies met quality criteria. ML models included logistic regression (n = 5), support vector machines (n = 4), k-nearest neighbor (n = 3), decision trees (n = 3), random forests (n = 5), neural networks (n = 2), linear discriminant analysis (n = 1), and pre-trained CNNs (n = 1). AUC ranged from 0.63 to 0.98. Accuracy (reported in six studies) ranged from 26% to 95%; however, these values should be interpreted with caution due to the absence of confidence intervals, lack of class imbalance handling, and limited external validation across studies. Tree-based ensemble methods such as random forest achieved competitive accuracy (74-86%), while SVM, a non-ensemble classifier, reported accuracy ranging from 71% to 95%; however, the highest values were obtained in studies with notably small sample sizes (n = 12 to n = 39), raising concerns about overfitting and generalizability. CONCLUSION: Current ML algorithms show promise for identifying athletes at high ACL injury risk and detecting relevant risk factors. Although study quality was generally satisfactory, future research should prioritize external validation and model interpretability to support clinical translation.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Implementation factors shaping British Columbia's drug decriminalization pilot: A systematic review with narrative synthesis.

BACKGROUND: In January 2023, British Columbia (BC) became the first Canadian province to implement a legally sanctioned drug decriminalization policy, removing criminal penalties for adults possessing 2.5 g or less of opioids, cocaine, methamphetamine, and MDMA. Introduced as a three-year pilot, it aimed to reframe substance use as a public health issue, reduce stigma, and improve health and social service engagement. Criminal penalties were reintroduced for drug possession in most public spaces in May 2024, and the pilot ended in January 2026. Its termination has been interpreted as policy failure; this review aimed to examine how the pilot was implemented in practice and to identify factors that shaped its operationalization and early implementation-relevant outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review with narrative synthesis of peer-reviewed literature examining implementation-relevant aspects of BC's decriminalization pilot. Six databases were searched (January-February 2026) for studies published May 31, 2022-February 1, 2026. The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD420251271694). RESULTS: Twenty-seven studies were included. Four cross-cutting implementation barriers were identified: pilot design features, public and cross-sector communication gaps, limited frontline training, and insufficient funding and infrastructure. Design features included the 2.5 g possession threshold, misalignment with real-world drug use patterns; the three-year timeframe, which constrained system-level effects; and the May 2024 amendment, which introduced additional instability. The pilot was implemented without commensurate investment in harm reduction, treatment, or housing infrastructure, within already constrained systems. CONCLUSION: BC's decriminalization pilot suggests the effects of legal reform are shaped by implementation context. Early outcomes may reflect design features, institutional readiness, and system capacity rather than legal change alone; longer-term impacts remain uncertain. Future reforms should align legal change with coordinated implementation, operational guidance, public communication, and adequate service infrastructure.

British Columbia↗
PubMed2026

Gastrointestinal digestion governs insect protein hydrolysis and predicted bioactive peptide release: Species-dependent implications for functional food applications.

This study investigates the digestion of insect proteins and the release of predicted bioactive peptides during human gastrointestinal digestion. Using the Infogest in vitro model, mealworm, cricket, and black soldier fly larvae (BSFL) proteins were digested and analyzed through discovery proteomics and bioinformatics to identify predicted bioactive peptides. Sequential windowed acquisition of all theoretical fragment ion mass spectra (SWATH-MS) quantified insect proteins including predicted bioactive peptide precursor proteins, the precursors of predicted bioactive peptides. Results indicated that gastrointestinal digestion strongly influences peptide release, with the gastric phase exhibiting a richer predicted bioactive peptide profile than the small intestinal phase. Many predicted bioactive peptides were rapidly hydrolysed under small intestine conditions, which may lead to reduced stability or diminished activity in vivo, potentially explaining why certain peptides show strong bioactivity in vitro but limited effects in vivo. Additionally, predicted bioactive peptide release varied by insect species, influenced by genetic factors and peptide abundance. These findings highlight the importance of species selection and consideration of proteolytic digestion patterns in optimizing insect-derived bioactive peptides for functional foods and nutraceutical applications.

Animals↗
PubMed2026

Whole-Genome Deep Learning Predicts Chemotherapy Response in Colorectal Cancer.

Chemotherapy response in colorectal cancer (CRC) exhibits significant heterogeneity, with current clinical predictors failing to capture complex genomic determinants of resistance. We developed a hybrid deep learning framework integrating convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) networks to analyze whole-genome somatic mutations, evolutionary conservation, chromatin accessibility, and 3D genome architecture in 2,546 TCGA patients. An attention mechanism identified predictive genomic regions. The model achieved an AUC of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.89-0.94) in cross-validation and 0.88 (95% CI: 0.85-0.91) in independent validation, outperforming clinical models (&#x394;AUC = +0.18, p < 0.001). Key predictors included non-coding variants in TP53, KRAS, and PIK3CA regulatory regions. Triple-positive patients (mutations in all 3 regions) had significantly worse progression-free survival (HR = 4.7, p < 0.001). Our framework enables accurate chemotherapy response prediction and reveals novel non-coding resistance mechanisms, advancing precision oncology in CRC.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Beyond predictive performance: A systematic review and critical methodological appraisal of AI/ML and conventional modelling strategies in breast, colorectal, and pancreatic Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Predictive modelling for cancer risk, treatment-related complications, and survival is central to precision oncology. Conventional logistic regression (LR) and Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH) regression remain widely used but are limited when modelling nonlinear interactions, high-dimensional imaging features, and multimodal clinical-metabolic predictors. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) methods offer expanded capability through automated feature extraction, ensemble learning, and flexible survival modelling, but the evidence on when AI/ML adds value over conventional models across cancer sites and predictive tasks remains fragmented. OBJECTIVE: To systematically evaluate the methodological performance, validation strategies, and translational limitations of AI/ML models compared with conventional statistical models in published predictive-modelling studies for breast, colorectal, or pancreatic cancer. METHODS: PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched for studies published between January 2019 and March 2025. Two reviewers independently conducted title-and-abstract screening, full-text eligibility assessment, and PROBAST risk-of-bias assessment. Sixty-five studies (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;907,567 participants) were narratively synthesised by cancer site, predictive task, model family, comparator, validation strategy, predictor modality, and calibration or explainability reporting. RESULTS: The 65 studies comprised breast cancer (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;35), colorectal cancer (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;21), and pancreatic cancer (n&#xa0;=&#xa0;9). AI/ML superiority over LR and CoxPH was task- and data-dependent. CNN- and U-Net-based models predominated in imaging and body-composition tasks, tree-based ensembles consistently outperformed LR for tabular perioperative complication prediction, and CoxPH remained competitive, and in the largest pancreatic risk study, superior to XGBoost (C-index 0.802 vs 0.723) in well-structured datasets. PROBAST analysis-domain risk was moderate in 54 of 65 studies (83%), driven by limited external validation, sparse calibration reporting (11/65), and few decision-curve analyses (7/65). CONCLUSION: AI/ML adds the most methodological value in imaging-derived feature extraction and nonlinear perioperative prediction, while conventional regression remains preferable in large, structured datasets with linear predictors. Clinical translation requires standardised body-composition definitions, external validation, calibration assessment, decision-curve analysis, and explainability, in line with TRIPOD+AI and CLAIM standards.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Predictive value of anal sphincter electromyography for sacral neuromodulation test-phase outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Sacral neuromodulation (SNM) is an established therapy for refractory pelvic organ dysfunction. Anal sphincter electromyography (EMG) is commonly used preoperatively to assess sacral and peripheral nerve integrity. However, the prognostic significance of chronic neurogenic EMG changes for SNM outcomes remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether chronic neurogenic changes on preoperative anal sphincter EMG predict the outcome of the SNM test phase. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed 62 consecutive patients with bladder and/or bowel dysfunction or pelvic pain who were candidates for SNM treatment and who underwent preoperative anal sphincter EMG. EMG findings were classified as normal or showing chronic neurogenic changes. SNM test-phase success was defined as a &#x2265;50% improvement of symptoms at 24&#xa0;days. Outcomes were compared between EMG groups. RESULTS: Of the 62 patients (49 women, 13 men), 30 (48%) had normal EMG findings and 32 (52%) showed chronic neurogenic changes. Overall, the SNM test phase was successful in 47 patients (76%). Success rates were similar in patients with normal EMG (72%) and neurogenic EMG changes (79%), with no statistically significant difference (p&#xa0;=&#xa0;0.878). Sex-stratified analyses revealed no significant association between EMG findings and test-phase success in women or men. CONCLUSIONS: Chronic neurogenic changes on anal sphincter EMG do not predict SNM test-phase outcomes. These findings suggest that abnormal sphincter EMG results should not be used as a standalone criterion to exclude patients from SNM therapy. SIGNIFICANCE: Signs of neurogenic damage on anal sphincter EMG are not an indicator of reduced neuromodulatory capacity or diminished clinical response to SNM.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Multimodal alignment improves generalizability of genomic biomarker prediction in computational pathology.

Computational pathology models that use digitized histopathology whole-slide images have the potential to become a cost-effective and scalable alternative to molecular assays for the prediction of genomic biomarkers, a key task in precision oncology. However, as new genomic biomarkers are discovered or quantified, large, labeled datasets must be prospectively collected to train new models. To address this challenge, we developed multimodal alignment for biomarker learning and generalization (MARBLE), a multimodal contrastive pretraining strategy that integrates structured biomarker knowledge into representation learning of histopathology images. MARBLE aligns histopathology-derived representations with representations of genomic biomarkers generated by a large language model (LLM) and a protein language model (PLM). This biologically informed alignment enables data-efficient generalization to novel, out-of-distribution biomarkers. Using the MSK-IMPACT cohort of over 40,000 patients across multiple biomarker panel versions, we design experiments grounded in real-world data to demonstrate the value of our proposed approach.

CP: computational biology↗
PubMed2026

Externally validated risk prediction models for gestational diabetes mellitus: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Risk prediction models for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) offer potential for early identification and targeted prevention. External validation is crucial to assess model performance across diverse populations. Despite the availability of numerous GDM prediction models, limited evidence exists on their external validation frequency, methodological quality, and clinical applicability. This systematic review evaluated externally validated GDM prediction models, focusing on methodological rigor, reporting standards, and clinical relevance to inform future research and implementation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Databases including Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Emcare, and CINAHL were searched up to May 1, 2025. Studies reporting external validation of GDM risk prediction models were included. Two reviewers independently screened studies. Data were extracted using the CHARMS framework, and risk of bias and applicability were assessed using PROBAST+AI. The study protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO; CRD420251125758). RESULTS: Twenty-six studies validated 33 models, with validation sample sizes ranging from 50 to 75&#x2009;161. Over half used the IADPSG criteria to define GDM. Discrimination metrics were commonly reported, but calibration, overall performance, and clinical utility were often lacking. Meta-analysis was feasible for only four models: Teede et&#xa0;al., Nanda et&#xa0;al., Naylor et&#xa0;al., and Van Leeuwen et&#xa0;al., each showing fair discrimination. The Teede et&#xa0;al. model was the most widely validated, with 11 external validations across six continents and a pooled AUC of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.67-0.76). Despite fewer validations, the Nanda et&#xa0;al. model achieved the highest pooled discrimination (5 validations; pooled AUC 0.77, 95% CI: 0.74-0.80). The Naylor et&#xa0;al. and van Leeuwen et&#xa0;al. models also underwent meta-analysis, as sufficient external validation studies were available to support comparative performance assessment. Notably, 69.23% of studies had a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: While many models showed acceptable predictive performance, most validations were methodologically weak. Future studies should follow best-practice guidelines and promote scalable validation strategies, such as algorithm sharing, to enhance clinical utility.

Humans↗
PubMed2026

Association of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 with recurrence risk and its predictive value in large artery atherosclerotic stroke.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) with large artery atherosclerotic (LAA) stroke and its predictive value for recurrence. METHODS: We consecutively enrolled 412 acute LAA stroke patients. Using a cutoff of 200&#xa0;ng/mL, patients were divided into high and low Lp-PLA2 groups, and into recurrence and non&#x2011;recurrence groups based on 1&#x2011;year follow&#x2011;up. Baseline characteristics, lipid profiles, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores, and vascular stenosis degree were compared. Binary logistic regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis were used to identify independent risk factors and evaluate predictive value. RESULTS: The high Lp-PLA2 group had significantly higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), small dense low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (sdLDL-C), prevalence of severe stenosis (&#x2265;70%), and proportion of NIHSS&#xa0;>&#xa0;15 (all P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05). The recurrence group showed elevated Lp-PLA2, higher LDL&#x2011;C and sdLDL-C, more severe neurological deficits, and more severe stenosis (all P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.001). Multivariable regression identified elevated Lp-PLA2 (per 10&#xa0;ng/mL: OR&#xa0;=&#xa0;1.139, 95% CI: 1.089-1.191), moderate (OR&#xa0;=&#xa0;3.145) and severe (OR&#xa0;=&#xa0;11.663) neurological deficits, and severe stenosis (OR&#xa0;=&#xa0;9.390) as independent risk factors for recurrence (all P&#xa0;<&#xa0;0.05). The Area Under the Curve (AUC) of Lp-PLA2 was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.69-0.82), with an optimal cutoff of 208.95&#xa0;ng/mL. CONCLUSION: Elevated Lp-PLA2 is associated with adverse lipid profiles, more severe neurological deficits, and greater vascular stenosis in LAA stroke patients, and independently predicts 1&#x2011;year recurrence. Lp-PLA2 shows moderate predictive value, supporting its potential for risk stratification.

Humans↗