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Population dynamics of HIV-1 inferred from gene sequences.

A method for the estimation of population dynamic history from sequence data is described and used to investigate the past population dynamics of HIV-1 subtypes A and B. Using both gag and env gene alignments the effective population size of each subtype is estimated and found to be surprisingly small. This may be a result of the selective sweep of mutations through the population, or may indicate an important role of genetic drift in the fixation of mutations. The implications of these results for the spread of drug-resistant mutations and transmission dynamics, and also the roles of selection and recombination in shaping HIV-1 genetic diversity, are discussed. A larger estimated effective population size for subtype A may be the result of differences in time of origin, transmission dynamics, and/or population structure. To investigate the importance of population structure a model of population subdivision was fitted to each subtype, although the improvement in likelihood was found to be nonsignificant.

Genes, Viral↗

Energy storage and the evolution of population dynamics.

We explore the mutual dependence of life history evolution and population dynamics by modeling a structured rotifer population that preys on a dynamic food supply. We focus on the ecological role of energy storage. A physiologically based submodel describes how individual predators allocate assimilated energy among growth, reproduction, and storage. We use invasibility analyses to predict evolutionary stable strategies for energy allocation. Various proxy measures of fitness based on measurable biological quantities, such as average population size or average per-capita fecundity, fail to predict evolutionary stable strategies. The predicted strategies indicate that selection strongly favors storage allocation for juveniles, but only for adults when prey densities are high. With the evolution of energy storage, population dynamics can shift from aperiodic to stable cycles without any need to invoke group selection.

Animals↗

On the population dynamics of the malaria vector.

A deterministic differential equation model for the population dynamics of the human malaria vector is derived and studied. Conditions for the existence and stability of a non-zero steady state vector population density are derived. These reveal that a threshold parameter, the vectorial basic reproduction number, exist and the vector can established itself in the community if and only if this parameter exceeds unity. When a non-zero steady state population density exists, it can be stable but it can also be driven to instability via a Hopf Bifurcation to periodic solutions, as a parameter is varied in parameter space. By considering a special case, an asymptotic perturbation analysis is used to derive the amplitude of the oscillating solutions for the full non-linear system. The present modelling exercise and results show that it is possible to study the population dynamics of disease vectors, and hence oscillatory behaviour as it is often observed in most indirectly transmitted infectious diseases of humans, without recourse to external seasonal forcing.

Animals↗

The influence of predator--prey population dynamics on the long-term evolution of food web structure.

We develop a set of equations to describe the population dynamics of many interacting species in food webs. Predator-prey interactions are nonlinear, and are based on ratio-dependent functional responses. The equations account for competition for resources between members of the same species, and between members of different species. Predators divide their total hunting/foraging effort between the available prey species according to an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS). The ESS foraging behaviour does not correspond to the predictions of optimal foraging theory. We use the population dynamics equations in simulations of the Webworld model of evolving ecosystems. New species are added to an existing food web due to speciation events, whilst species become extinct due to coevolution and competition. We study the dynamics of species-diversity in Webworld on a macro-evolutionary time-scale. Coevolutionary interactions are strong enough to cause continuous overturn of species, in contrast to our previous Webworld simulations with simpler population dynamics. Although there are significant fluctuations in species diversity because of speciation and extinction, very large-scale extinction avalanches appear to be absent from the dynamics, and we find no evidence for self-organized criticality.

Animals↗

Modelling the impact of climate change on woody plant population dynamics in South African savanna.

BACKGROUND: In Southern Africa savannas climate change has been proposed to alter rainfall, the most important environmental driver for woody plants. Woody plants are a major component of savanna vegetation determining rangeland condition and biodiversity. In this study we use a spatially explicit, stochastic computer model to assess the impact of climate change on the population dynamics of Grewia flava, a common, fleshy-fruited shrub species in the southern Kalahari. Understanding the population dynamics of Grewia flava is a crucial task, because it is widely involved in the shrub/bush encroachment process, a major concern for rangeland management due to its adverse effect on livestock carrying capacity and biodiversity. RESULTS: For our study we consider four climate change scenarios that have been proposed for the southern Kalahari for the coming decades: (1) an increase in annual precipitation by 30-40%, (2) a decrease by 5-15%, (3) an increase in variation of extreme rainfall years by 10-20%, (4) and increase in temporal auto-correlation, i.e. increasing length and variation of periodic rainfall oscillations related to El Nino/La Nina phenomena. We evaluate the slope z of the time-shrub density relationship to quantify the population trend. For each climate change scenario we then compared the departure of z from typical stable population dynamics under current climatic conditions. Based on the simulation experiments we observed a positive population trend for scenario (1) and a negative trend for scenario (2). In terms of the projected rates of precipitation change for scenario (3) and (4) population dynamics were found to be relatively stable. However, for a larger increase in inter-annual variation or in temporal auto-correlation of rainfall population trends were negative, because favorable rainfall years had a limited positive impact due to the limited shrub carrying capacity. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that a possible increase in precipitation will strongly facilitate shrub encroachment threatening savanna rangeland conditions and regional biodiversity. Furthermore, the negative effects found for positive auto-correlated rainfall support current ecological theory stating that periodically fluctuating environments can reduce population viability because species suffer disproportionately from poor environmental conditions.

Biodiversity↗

Population dynamics and regulation in the cave salamander Speleomantes strinatii.

Time series analysis has been used to evaluate the mechanisms regulating population dynamics of mammals and insects, but has been rarely applied to amphibian populations. In this study, the influence of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous (density-independent) factors regulating population dynamics of the terrestrial plethodontid salamander Speleomantes strinatii was analysed by means of time series and multiple regression analyses. During the period 1993-2005, S. strinatii population abundance, estimated by a standardised temporary removal method, displayed relatively low fluctuations, and the autocorrelation function (ACF) analysis showed that the time series had a noncyclic structure. The partial rate correlation function (PRCF) indicated that a strong first-order negative feedback dominated the endogenous dynamics. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that the only climatic factor influencing population growth rate was the minimum winter temperature. Thus, at least during the study period, endogenous, density-dependent negative feedback was the main factor affecting the growth rate of the salamander population, whereas stochastic environmental variables, such as temperature and rainfall, seemed to play a minor role in regulation. These results stress the importance of considering both exogenous and endogenous factors when analysing amphibian long-term population dynamics.

Animals↗

A dynamic life table model of Psorophora columbiae in the southern Louisiana rice agroecosystem with supporting hydrologic submodel. Part 2. Model validation and population dynamics.

In an earlier paper, the development of 2 simulation models designed to describe the interaction between key elements of the rice agroecosystem and the population dynamics of Psorophora columbiae were presented (Focks et al. 1988a). The objective of the work reported herein was to validate these models with field data. The first model (WaterMod) predicts soil hydrology conditions as a function of weather, agricultural practices, and soil characteristics for a variety of habitats found within the rice agroecosystem which are utilized by Ps. columbiae. Using a continuous series of hydrologic data collected in southwestern Louisiana during 1984 and 1985, WaterMod was demonstrated capable of adequately predicting runoff rates and the temporal timing of soil moisture and surface water. The second model (PcSim) simulates the population dynamics of Ps. columbiae based upon a host of variables including the output from WaterMod. This model was validated by comparisons made with density estimates from the literature on the temporal and spatial distribution of various life stages and by correspondence with light trap data gathered during the same time and location as the hydrologic data. PcSim was seen to respond appropriately to host animal densities and unusual meterological events occurring during 1984 and 1985 in southern Louisiana. A discussion is presented of the interaction between agricultural practices and certain key factors of the life history strategy of Ps. columbiae which permit the unusually successful exploitation of the rice agroecosystem by this species. A subsequent paper will use these models to evaluate current and proposed IPM strategies for this mosquito (Focks et al. 1988b).

Actuarial Analysis↗

Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures.

A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.

Animals↗

Population dynamics of sporogony for Plasmodium vivax parasites from western Thailand developing within three species of colonized Anopheles mosquitoes.

BACKGROUND: The population dynamics of Plasmodium sporogony within mosquitoes consists of an early phase where parasite abundance decreases during the transition from gametocyte to oocyst, an intermediate phase where parasite abundance remains static as oocysts, and a later phase where parasite abundance increases during the release of progeny sporozoites from oocysts. Sporogonic development is complete when sporozoites invade the mosquito salivary glands. The dynamics and efficiency of this developmental sequence were determined in laboratory strains of Anopheles dirus, Anopheles minimus and Anopheles sawadwongporni mosquitoes for Plasmodium vivax parasites circulating naturally in western Thailand. METHODS: Mosquitoes were fed blood from 20 symptomatic Thai adults via membrane feeders. Absolute densities were estimated for macrogametocytes, round stages (= female gametes/zygotes), ookinetes, oocysts, haemolymph sporozoites and salivary gland sporozoites. From these census data, five aspects of population dynamics were analysed; 1) changes in life-stage prevalence during early sporogony, 2) kinetics of life-stage formation, 3) efficiency of life-stage transitions, 4) density relationships between successive life-stages, and 5) parasite aggregation patterns. RESULTS: There was no difference among the three mosquito species tested in total losses incurred by P. vivax populations during early sporogony. Averaged across all infections, parasite populations incurred a 68-fold loss in abundance, with losses of ca. 19-fold, 2-fold and 2-fold at the first (= gametogenesis/fertilization), second (= round stage transformation), and third (= ookinete migration) life-stage transitions, respectively. However, total losses varied widely among infections, ranging from 6-fold to over 2,000-fold loss. Losses during gametogenesis/fertilization accounted for most of this variability, indicating that gametocytes originating from some volunteers were more fertile than those from other volunteers. Although reasons for such variability were not determined, gametocyte fertility was not correlated with blood haematocrit, asexual parasitaemia, gametocyte density or gametocyte sex ratio. Round stages and ookinetes were present in mosquito midguts for up to 48 hours and development was asynchronous. Parasite losses during fertilization and round stage differentiation were more influenced by factors intrinsic to the parasite and/or factors in the blood, whereas ookinete losses were more strongly influenced by mosquito factors. Oocysts released sporozoites on days 12 to 14, but even by day 22 many oocysts were still present on the midgut. The per capita production was estimated to be approximately 500 sporozoites per oocyst and approximately 75% of the sporozoites released into the haemocoel successfully invaded the salivary glands. CONCLUSION: The major developmental bottleneck in early sporogony occurred during the transition from macrogametocyte to round stage. Sporozoite invasion into the salivary glands was very efficient. Information on the natural population dynamics of sporogony within malaria-endemic areas may benefit intervention strategies that target early sporogony (e.g., transmission blocking vaccines, transgenic mosquitoes).

Adult↗

Landscape-scale spatial population dynamics in human-impacted stream systems.

The movement of individuals among populations can be critical in preventing local and landscape-scale species extinctions in systems exposed to human perturbation. Current understanding of spatial population dynamics in streams is largely limited to the reach scale and is therefore inadequate to address species response to spatially extensive perturbation. Using model simulations, I examined species response to perturbation in a drainage composed of multiple, hierarchically arranged stream-patches connected by in-stream and overland pathways of dispersal. Patch extinction probability, the proportion of initially occupied patches extinct after 25 years, was highly sensitive to the extent of species occupancy and perturbation within the drainage, longitudinal species distribution, perturbation decay rate and the covariance pattern of stochastic effects on colonization and extinction probabilities. Results of these simulations underscore the importance of identifying and preserving source populations and dispersal routes for stream species in human-impacted landscapes. They also highlight the vulnerability of headwater specialist taxa to anthropogenic perturbation, and the strong positive effect on species resilience of habitat rehabilitation when recolonization is possible. Efforts to conserve and manage stream species may be greatly improved by accounting for landscape-scale spatial population dynamics.

Animals↗

[Population dynamics of Microtus fortis in Dongting Lake region and its forecasting].

The population dynamics of Microtus fortis in Yueyang, Hunan Province was studied from 1991 to 1996. M. fortis lived on the beach of the lake from early autumn to next spring, but moved to the farmland in summer when the beach was flooded. When lived on the beach, its population increased gradually. Usually, M. fortis made great damage on the crops when moved to the farmland. The population dynamics of M. fortis was different on the beach and on the farmland, and the key affecting factors were also different. Lake beach was the most suitable habitat for M. fortis. When it emerged in autumn, M. fortis moved back on it. The main breeding season of M. fortis inhabited on the beach was from October to May, and its population density increased gradually. The period between the beach emerged and been flooded determined the population size of the animal moved to farmland. Another factor was the rainfall in March. Farmland was not the suitable habitat for M. fortis. Because of the low breeding potential, high mortality and dispersal on farmland, its population density kept decreasing, and was very low in winter. The population density on farmland dropped dramatically when the lake beach emerged. The animal population was forecasted by means of regression analysis, and a linear regression equation was obtained. The predicted values matched with the real population densities of the animal in the field.

Animals↗

The relative roles of density and climatic variation on population dynamics and fecundity rates in three contrasting ungulate species.

The relative influences of density-dependent and -independent processes on vital rates and population dynamics have been debated in ecology for over half a century, yet it is only recently that both processes have been shown to operate within the same population. However, generalizations on the role of each process across species are rare. Using a process-orientated generalized linear modelling approach we show that variations in fecundity rates in populations of three species of ungulates with contrasting life histories are associated with density and winter weather in a remarkably similar manner. However, there are differences and we speculate that they are a result of differences in size between the species. Much previous research exploring the association between vital rates, population dynamics and density-dependent and -independent processes has used pattern-orientated approaches to decompose time-series into contributions from density-dependent and -independent processes. Results from these analyses are sometimes used to infer associations between vital rates, density and climatic variables. We compare results from pattern-orientated analyses of time-series with process-orientated analyses and report that the two approaches give different results. The approach of analysing relationships between vital rates, density and climatic variables may detect important processes influencing population dynamics that time-series methodologies may overlook.

Animals↗

Isotope variations in white-tailed kites from various habitats in California: possible limitations in assessing prey utilization and population dynamics.

White-tailed kite (Elanus leucurus) populations in the 1930s were close to extirpation in the United States. But by the 1940s, an upward trend towards recovery was apparent and continued to their current stable population levels. These dramatic fluctuations in kite numbers may have been related to changes in rodent prey populations due to the conversion of native habitats to agriculture. To address this question, we evaluated the use of stable isotope analysis in determining if a shift in diet could be isotopically differentiated in current and historic kite populations. We first compared delta13C, delta15N, and delta34S values from present-day kite flight feathers and prey fur samples from four locations in California. The total ranges of isotope values for kite and their rodent prey were similar within each site. Carbon isotope values ranged from -27.1 to -22.2 per thousand in Arcata, -26.1 to -16.9 per thousand in Davis, -27.0 to -15.0 per thousand in Cosumnes, and -28.2 to -11.6 per thousand in Santa Barbara. Nitrogen isotope values ranged from 3.2 to 15.7 per thousand in Arcata, 2.8 to 12.7 per thousand in Davis, 4.0 to 15.7 per thousand in Cosumnes, and 1.7 to 20.0 per thousand in Santa Barbara. Sulfur isotope values ranged from -7.8 to 12.4 per thousand in Arcata, -1.1 to 9.2 per thousand in Davis, 0.7 to 10.9 per thousand in Cosumnes, and -8.6 to 15.6 per thousand in Santa Barbara. Carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur isotope values at each site reflect typical trophic enrichments due to physiological processes. At each site, delta13C and delta15N values reflected the influence of a predominantly C3 or a mixed C3/C4 plant community. Sulfur isotope values reflect the influence of predominant marine or terrestrial sulfur sources at each site. However, variability in isotope values may limit the usefulness of such analyses for addressing prey utilization and population dynamics.

Animals↗

Small-scale fisheries, population dynamics, and resource use in Africa: the case of Moree, Ghana.

We consider population dynamics and sustainable use and development of fishery resources in Moree, a small-scale fishing and coastal community of 20,000 people in the Central Region of Ghana near Cape Coast. Moree suggests that relationships between population dynamics and fishery resources are more complex than the concept of Malthusian overfishing implies. Reasons include changing biophysical characteristics of the upwelling system along the coast of West Africa; qualitative as well as quantitative changes in fishing activity throughout the year; the market nature of fishing activity and nonlocal demands for fish; regular fishery migration; and institutions regulating fishery resource access at home and at migration destinations. Population and resource relationships in Moree may be the effects of fishery resource and economic changes on migration rather than population pressure on fishery resources. Fisheries management policies must take into account processes that lie beyond the influence of local fishermen.

Animals↗

Archaeal population dynamics during sequential reduction processes in rice field soil.

The population dynamics of Archaea after flooding of an Italian rice field soil were studied over 17 days. Anoxically incubated rice field soil slurries exhibited a typical sequence of reduction processes characterized by reduction of nitrate, Fe(3+), and sulfate prior to the initiation of methane production. Archaeal population dynamics were followed using a dual approach involving molecular sequence retrieval and fingerprinting of small-subunit (SSU) rRNA genes. We retrieved archaeal sequences from four clone libraries (30 each) constructed for different time points (days 0, 1, 8, and 17) after flooding of the soil. The clones could be assigned to known methanogens (i.e., Methanosarcinaceae, Methanosaetaceae, Methanomicrobiaceae, and Methanobacteriaceae) and to novel euryarchaeotal (rice clusters I, II, and III) and crenarchaeotal (rice clusters IV and VI) lineages previously detected in anoxic rice field soil and on rice roots (R. Grosskopf, S. Stubner, and W. Liesack, Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 64:4983-4989, 1998). During the initiation of methanogenesis (days 0 to 17), we detected significant changes in the frequency of individual clones, especially of those affiliated with the Methanosaetaceae and Methanobacteriaceae. However, these findings could not be confirmed by terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) analysis of SSU rDNA amplicons. Most likely, the fluctuations in sequence composition of clone libraries resulted from cloning bias. Clonal SSU rRNA gene sequences were used to define operational taxonomic units (OTUs) for T-RFLP analysis, which were distinguished by group-specific TaqI restriction sites. Sequence analysis showed a high degree of conservation of TaqI restriction sites within the different archaeal lineages present in Italian rice field soil. Direct T-RFLP analysis of archaeal populations in rice field soil slurries revealed the presence of all archaeal lineages detected by cloning with a predominance of terminal restriction fragments characteristic of rice cluster I (389 bp), Methanosaetaceae (280 bp), and Methanosarcinaceae/rice cluster VI (182 bp). In general, the relative gene frequency of most detected OTUs remained rather constant over time during the first 17 days after flooding of the soil. Most minor OTUs (e.g., Methanomicrobiaceae and rice cluster III) and Methanosaetaceae did not change in relative frequency. Rice cluster I (37 to 30%) and to a lesser extent rice cluster IV as well as Methanobacteriaceae decreased over time. Only the relative abundance of Methanosarcinaceae (182 bp) increased, roughly doubling from 15 to 29% of total archaeal gene frequency within the first 11 days, which was positively correlated to the dynamics of acetate and formate concentrations. Our results indicate that a functionally dynamic ecosystem, a rice field soil after flooding, was linked to a relatively stable archaeal community structure.

Archaea↗

Human population dynamics.

Time-series analysis of parish register series can be used to study human population dynamics at three different levels: (i) The metapopulation of preindustrial rural England. A short wavelength, exogenous oscillation in the burials series of 404 parishes can be detected which, it is suggested, was driven by a cycle of malnutrition associated with wheat prices. (ii) Individual populations, where long-term endogenous oscillations in baptisms and burials of wavelength 30-32 years or 43-44 years can be detected. Their characteristics and causes are explored and elucidated by matrix modelling. (iii) The separate neonatal, post-neonatal, child and adult mortalities in an individual population each show an exogenous short wavelength oscillation and a model is presented to show how these cycles were driven by an oscillation in grain prices and how they interacted. Together, they formed the feedback in a saturated, density-dependent population which was fundamental in controlling the characteristics of the longer wavelength endogenous oscillations in the population dynamics described above.

England↗

Spatial-dynamic population systems: analysis and projection.

"In this paper a set of more-detailed multiregional population accounts is proposed to specify more realistically the exposure time of populations at risk for various components of population change. The concepts of population-time at risk and forward demographic rates based on the initial population are discussed. The relations of the forward demographic rates defined in this paper with the occurrence-exposure demographic rates are discussed. A more precise and straightforward multiregional population model is developed on the basis of forward demographic rates. The model is also expressed in the familiar matrix form of multiregional, cohort-survival models." Some applications of the model are made to data for China.

Asia↗

Evolution, population dynamics, and stability.

By treating mutant populations as fluctuations relating to the structural stability of the equations of population dynamics, a criterion is developed permitting the prediction of long-term population trends in an evolving eco-system. As an illustration it is shown that the ratio of predator to prey biomass increases under the effects of their combined evolution.

Journal Article↗