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[Methods of evaluating the effectiveness of diagnostic procedures].

The informational efficacy is evaluated of diagnostic tests that are employed in both screening programs and clinical routine. The main data concerning with the decision making theory are summarized and may be successfully applied in order to obtain diagnoses in practical conditions. Various diagnostic algorithms are demonstrated on practical examples. The attention is focused on such diagnostic methods which are issued from binary input data, ROC curve, the use of information theory and Bayes formula. Also the problem related to the statistical induction in evaluating diagnostic tests is treated.

Decision Theory

[Quantitative assessment of qualitative traits of radionuclide images of the bones].

The results of radionuclide visualization of 147 patients with primary bone pathology were analyzed using probability algorithms. This analysis resulted in the determination of several groups of signs of various degrees of reliability in the diagnosis of some types of bone pathology. Diagnostic algorithms allow summing up and classifying practical experience and to test hypotheses, put forward by some of the physicians as a result of their practical activities. The use of probability algorithms in radionuclide studies is necessitated by a great variety of radiopharmaceuticals and a multitude of radiodiagnostic approaches to the standardization of methods and unification of diagnostic decisions.

Algorithms

Support vector machine classification of 18F-FDG PET scans across subtypes of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

PURPOSE: While 18F-FDG PET imaging has demonstrated diagnostic value in people with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (PwALS) and group-level differences were identified between different disease subtypes (e.g., genetic and clinical variants), refining and validating a machine-learning-based subject-level diagnostic algorithm may improve the general applicability and reliability of 18F-FDG PET as a diagnostic tool in ALS. In this study, we employed support vector machines (SVM) to further explore the diagnostic potential of 18F-FDG PET in ALS, alongside its ability to classify between different genetic subtypes or clinical phenotypes. METHODS: 18F-FDG PET data of 36 healthy volunteers (HV), 25 people with ALS-mimicking diseases (Mimics), and 167 PwALS, grouped by genetic status (e.g., sporadic (sALS) or carrying a C9orf72 hexanucleotide repeat expansion (ALSC9orf72RE) and onset (bulbar or spinal) type, acquired with Biograph 'TruePoint' PET/CT scanner, were included in the study (Dataset 1). A second dataset of 183 PwALS and 31 Mimics acquired with Biograph 'HiRez' scanner was included as an independent cross-validation set (Dataset 2). PET images were spatially normalised to MNI space to fit linear SVMs with cross-validation. Only age-matched groups were considered to eliminate age-related effects. RESULTS: For Dataset 1, the linear SVM resulted in an average accuracy of 0.86 for the classification of ALS vs. HV, 0.53 for ALS vs. Mimics, 0.83 for ALSC9orf72RE vs. sALS, and 0.58 for bulbar vs. spinal onset. These findings were corroborated with Dataset2, with an accuracy of up to 0.76 for ALSC9orf72RE vs. sALS, and 0.59 for bulbar vs. spinal. CONCLUSION: 18F-FDG brain PET imaging, combined with SVM and age-matching, can distinguish between ALSC9orf72RE and sALS with good accuracy, but lacks sufficient discriminative power to differentiate between ALS and Mimics and between different sites of onset.

Humans

Advances in imaging.

The introduction of sonography, x-ray computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) have enhanced the radiologist's ability to delineate and stage neoplasms in all parts of the human body. Images of excellent quality can be generated within a reasonable time frame and with minimal biologic risk. All of the more sophisticated imaging modalities are costly and none can, isolated from clinical data, provide histologic diagnoses. Within the next few years it is anticipated that the speed of magnetic resonance image acquisition will increase and that contrast agents for MRI will be brought into clinical use. Evaluation of cost-effectiveness will continue and new diagnostic algorithms can be expected to evolve.

Diagnostic Imaging

Use of a Bayesian algorithm in the computer-assisted diagnosis of appendicitis.

One hundred consecutive patients with acute right lower quadrant abdominal pain were prospectively evaluated with a computerized Bayesian diagnostic algorithm. An accuracy rate of 92 per cent was obtained. Computer recommendations would have resulted in a negative exploration rate of 9 per cent, as compared with the rate of 19 per cent which was actually obtained. Even though our clinical management of these patients was in keeping with accepted standards, the Bayesian program would have avoided eight unnecessary operations. In all instances in which the patient presented with appendicitis, the computer correctly predicted that appendicitis was present. Computer-assisted diagnostic programs using a Bayesian approach may have some role in the evaluation of right lower quadrant abdominal pain. The technique presented herein describes a means of developing a database of conditional probabilities without reliance on large patient surveys. Even with this refinement, the Bayesian approach to diagnosis remains complex. The development of this type of program requires close interaction between computer scientists and surgeons. Nevertheless, the approach does appear promising and it may well be worth the considerable effort required to initiate such a system. The exact role for Bayesian diagnostic analysis cannot be predicted at this point. Certainly it should have no greater importance than a routine laboratory test. Perhaps the results of Bayesian analysis in this setting might assume a diagnostic significance similar to that of the white blood cell count. The work of DeDombal has done much to eliminate the physician reluctance seen with earlier programs. It has become increasingly apparent that computers may perform many clinically useful functions without infringing upon the art of medicine. The computer assisted diagnosis of acute abdominal pain may well constitute one such function.

Acute Disease

Integrating Next-Generation Sequencing into von Willebrand Disease Diagnostics: Insights from the PCM-EVW-ES Multicenter Project.

Von Willebrand disease (VWD) is the most common inherited bleeding disorder, caused by quantitative or qualitative defects in von Willebrand factor (VWF). Diagnosis is challenging and requires integrating bleeding history, VWF antigen and activity measurements, FVIII assays, and specialized phenotyping. Genetic testing is increasingly recognized as a key component. Here, we review current concepts in VWD diagnostics and highlight the Spanish Clinical and Molecular Profile of von Willebrand Disease (PCM-EVW-ES) project as a model for genomics-enabled precision medicine. PCM-EVW-ES is a multicenter initiative involving 48 hospitals, centralized phenotypic testing, and next-generation sequencing of the VWF coding region, enabling definitive classification in 730 individuals with VWD to date. Harmonized recruitment criteria and standardized workflows improve subtype assignment, uncover complex genotypes, refine genotype-phenotype correlations, and facilitate the identification of asymptomatic carriers. The PCM-EVW-ES variant spectrum highlights recurrent disease-causing variants in Spain and underscores the value of coordinated national registries for variant curation. Building on these data, we propose a diagnostic algorithm in which bleeding assessment and first-line VWF/FVIII assays, combined with, early VWF molecular testing increases diagnostic accuracy and guides targeted second-line investigations to confirm and refine VWD subtype classification. We also outline persisting challenges, including the interpretation of variants of uncertain significance and patients without identifiable pathogenic VWF variants, and future directions integrating third-generation sequencing, expanded gene panels, functional studies, and artificial-intelligence-driven multiomic approaches. Together, these advances illustrate how robust multicenter studies can bridge the gap between complex diagnostics and clinical practice in VWD.

Humans

Secular trends in Q wave and non-Q wave acute myocardial infarction. The Minnesota Heart Survey.

The Minnesota Heart Survey examined trends of Q wave and non-Q wave acute myocardial infarction (AMI) using a 50% random sample of all hospital discharges of patients with AMI or another acute coronary disease from 35 of 36 hospitals in 1970 and 30 of 31 hospitals in 1980 in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area. A total of 1,901 and 1,864 potential AMI cases were abstracted in 1970 and 1980, respectively. Electrocardiograms were coded according to the Minnesota code. AMIs were validated by computerized algorithm based on chest pain, enzymes, electrocardiograms, and autopsy. This study shows that with the use of a consistent, standard diagnostic algorithm, attack rates for Q wave AMI did not change significantly between 1970 and 1980 and that attack rates for non-Q wave AMI decreased significantly during the same decade. However, when the more sensitive cardiac enzymes creatine phosphokinase and creatine phosphokinase-MB were considered, attack rates of both Q wave and non-Q wave AMIs increased. This research documents four important trends for community AMI rates that are at variance with those reported by others. There was a decline in non-Q wave AMI attack rates from 1970 to 1980; women had outcomes equal to or worse than those for men for both case-fatality and 7-year survival rates; patients with non-Q wave AMIs had worse in-hospital prognoses than those with Q wave AMIs; and 7-year survival rates were worse for Q wave AMI in 1980. These findings demonstrate the need for standard diagnostic criteria for Q wave and non-Q wave AMI if trends are to be monitored. In the future, as new trials of operative and nonoperative therapies of AMI are undertaken, these considerations will increase in importance.

Adult

An algorithm for the clinical differentiation of malaria and typhoid: a preliminary communication.

The objective of this study was to determine which clinical features of typhoid and malaria are most helpful in distinguishing the two diseases among Papua New Guinean highlanders. In a study of 35 patients with culture-positive typhoid and 49 with blood-slide-positive malaria (Group 1), the odds of typhoid were increased most in patients with altered bowel habit, an illness of more than 2 week's duration, tremor or the presence of typhoid facies. The odds of typhoid were lowest in patients with pallor or jaundice. These findings were used to derive a clinical diagnostic algorithm, which was then evaluated in a further group of 34 typhoid patients and 41 malaria patients (Group 2). The sensitivity of the algorithm in diagnosing malaria was 91% in Group 1 and 71% in Group 2, with specificities of 85% and 79% respectively. For typhoid, the sensitivity of the algorithm was 85% and 79% for Groups 1 and 2, respectively, and the specificities were 91% and 71%. We conclude that the algorithm merits further evaluation in a primary health care setting and may prove useful in making an earlier diagnosis of typhoid.

Algorithms

[Methods of selection of cutoff points in the development and interpretation of diagnostic tests].

Problems related to the optimization of diagnosis making are scrutinized. Applied immunological tests for diagnosis of ovarian cancers are used as an example of ROC curve calculation. Moreover, sensitivity and specificity grades are computed in order to obtain the optimum of diagnostical robustness. The ROC analysis is supplemented with application of Bayes diagnostical algorithm. The analysis is given also of other problems concerning with implementation of quantitative characteristics in the course of diagnostical decision making.

Bayes Theorem

Diagnostic evaluation of Cushing's syndrome.

The regulation of ACTH-cortisol production in the pathophysiology of the various forms of Cushing's syndrome is discussed. The diagnostic algorithms for the differential diagnosis of Cushing's syndrome are reviewed with emphasis on the precision of the evaluation, diagnostic pitfalls, and the influence of some of the more recently developed procedures on this diagnostic evaluation.

Cushing Syndrome

Berner's axial syndromes and the polydiagnostic approach of the LICET system.

The LICET system is a polydiagnostic instrument permitting recording of diagnostic criteria and assignment by diagnostic algorithms as proposed in a number of different classification systems, including the Viennese Research Criteria. In the present report, French diagnostic practices are compared with the Viennese Research Criteria for endogenomorphic-schizophrenic and endogenomorphic-cyclothymic axial syndromes.

Austria

Diagnosis of rare dementia syndromes: an algorithmic approach.

The etiology of dementia can be diagnosed in most patients using a standard clinical approach consisting of physical, neurologic, and mental status examinations, and laboratory testing, lumbar puncture, and neuroimaging. In some cases, however, the clinical presentation or historical data are unusual, or the results of the workup are inconclusive or atypical. A rare cause of dementia may then be present and a complicated evaluation may be necessary to identify the specific disease process. A potentially useful approach to the diagnosis of rare dementing disorders consists of a series of diagnostic algorithms. This approach utilizes results of neuroimaging studies to guide the evaluation through additional diagnostic steps such as specific enzymatic or immunologic assays or biopsy of extraneural tissues. The disorders potentially detected by these algorithms typically have unusual clinical features such as early age of onset, abnormal neurologic signs and symptoms early in the clinical course, early personality and mood changes, extrapyramidal or cerebellar signs and symptoms, seizures, peripheral neuropathy or myopathy, and extraneural abnormalities involving the dermatologic, cardiovascular, musculoskeletal, or ocular systems. Accurate diagnosis of these rare causes of dementia is important for medical and psychiatric management, prognosis, and genetic counseling.

Aged

Further experience with computer-assisted diagnosis of diseases of the liver and biliary tree.

Computer-assisted classification of disease has largely relied upon testing the diagnostic algorithm in the same population from which it was originally derived, as a means of validation. To evaluate the accuracy of a diagnostic program in which discriminant function analysis is used, we applied it to a separate population, selected by different criteria from those used to define the original case material on which the diagnostic program was based. We selected a group of 315 patients having abnormal values for alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin, or aspartate aminotransferase for further biochemical and immunological investigations. We used a computer program involving discriminant function analysis and classification procedures primed with the results of 10 tests obtained on each of 535 patients in a previous series to allocate those 173 new patients who had diseases of the liver or biliary tree into one of 13 disease groups. The classification was less accurate than was the case in previous cross-validation studies. We developed new discriminants with the new case material, using the same group of tests, and when cross-validation was performed, overall accuracy was greatly improved. These experiences point to the powerful influence of group selection upon computer-assisted diagnostic procedures, and the hazards of applying to one clinical population discriminant functions derived from a different population.

Autoanalysis

Results of a repeat television-advertised mass screening program for colorectal cancer using fecal occult blood tests.

The results of a 1987 television-advertised colorectal screening program using fecal occult blood tests (FOBT) are compared with the initial 1986 program (results in parentheses). In the 1987 program, 73,508 fecal occult blood test (FOBT) kits were distributed free of charge, of which 63% were returned for analysis (57,000, 53%). Twenty-five percent of persons from the initial screening participated again in the 1987 program: 1,303 or 2.8% of persons had a positive screen (1,165, 3.9%). The predictive value of a positive screen was 23% for an adenomatous polyp and 8% for colorectal cancer (22%, 8%). Seventy-nine percent of the cancers detected were Dukes A or B or carcinoma in situ (78%). In order to promote a more thorough diagnostic work-up in positive screenes, a suggested diagnostic algorithm for the work-up of a positive FOBT was sent to participating physicians. Despite this, 35% of positive screenees had a diagnostic work-up limited to a repeat FOBT, and/or sigmoidoscopy only (32%). In conclusion, television-advertised mass screening programs consistently enroll large numbers of participants. The rate of compliance (percent of kits returned) and the limited diagnostic evaluation of persons with a positive screen appear to be the major factors limiting the success of our screening program.

Adenocarcinoma

An algorithm for prenatal ultrasound diagnosis of congenital CNS abnormalities.

The variable expression of congenital CNS abnormalities makes their antenatal ultrasound diagnosis extremely difficult. Clinical decisions depend on ultrasound diagnosis; therefore, accurate antenatal diagnosis is imperative. A diagnostic algorithm based on ultrasonic demonstration of fetal cranial structures altered in congenital CNS abnormalities was constructed and applied retrospectively to 40 patients with clinicopathologic follow-up adequate to define the cranial abnormality. Using the algorithm our diagnosis was correct in 37/40 (92 per cent) compared with 30/40 (75 per cent) without its use. The algorithm was highly accurate in the diagnosis of hydrocephalus (13/14), anencephaly/amniotic band syndrome (13/13), and holoprosencephaly (8/8). A wide spectrum of CNS abnormalities can be accurately diagnosed by ultrasonography in the antenatal period by the application of our algorithm.

Amniotic Band Syndrome

The prudent use of diagnostic ultrasound.

Progress in diagnostic ultrasound is driven by the development of new technology. The place of new techniques in diagnostic algorithms has to be determined jointly by radiologists and clinicians and appropriate arrangements have to be made for training. About pounds 30 million per year is currently spent on diagnostic ultrasound in the UK. Diagnostic ultrasound depends on the information obtained as a result of ultrasonic irradiation of the patient. Biological effects, some of which are undesirable, can be produced by ultrasound but there is no evidence that the exposures used in diagnosis carry any risk. In judging whether ultrasonic scanning is appropriate in any particular situation, it is necessary to consider benefits, costs and available resources. The costs include not only the costs of the test but also the cost of any hypothetical ultrasonic hazard and the cost of misdiagnosis. The most prudent use of ultrasound is that which maximises the benefit-total-cost ratio and although this cannot presently be quantified, some of the concepts involved can be understood in terms of the health increment and the health decrement the latter apparently being equal to zero when the diagnosis is correctly made using contemporary equipment. This approach can be extended to introduce the idea of profit arising from the test. As an example, obstetric ultrasound is considered to be appropriate when there is a medical indication for it. Although routine scanning at 16 weeks of pregnancy has been shown to result in a very large profit, there is still conflicting guidance about its advisability on the grounds of safety and existing accounting systems may restrict access to the profit. In discussing the desirability of ultrasonic scanning, patients can be informed that there is no reason to believe that there are any risks related to ultrasonic exposure. The imminent availability of inexpensive ultrasonic scanners for the layman is a worrying prospect to which the medical profession should now try to develop a prudent response.

Cost-Benefit Analysis

The prudent use of diagnostic ultrasound. British Institute of Radiology presidential address 1986.

Progress in diagnostic ultrasound is driven by the development of new technology. The place of new techniques in diagnostic algorithms has to be determined jointly by radiologists and clinicians and appropriate arrangements have to be made for training. About 30 million pounds per year is currently spent on diagnostic ultrasound in the UK. Diagnostic ultrasound depends on the information obtained as a result of ultrasonic irradiation of the patient. Biological effects, some of which are undesirable, can be produced by ultrasound but there is no evidence that the exposures used in diagnosis carry any risk. In judging whether ultrasonic scanning is appropriate in any particular situation, it is necessary to consider benefits, costs and available resources. The costs include not only the costs of the test but also the cost of any hypothetical ultrasonic hazard and the cost of misdiagnosis. The most prudent use of ultrasound is that which maximises the benefit-total-cost ratio and although this cannot presently be quantified, some of the concepts involved can be understood in terms of the health increment and the health decrement, the latter apparently being equal to zero when the diagnosis is correctly made using contemporary equipment. This approach can be extended to introduce the idea of profit arising from the test. As an example, obstetric ultrasound is considered to be appropriate when there is a medical indication for it. Although routine scanning at 16 weeks of pregnancy has been shown to result in a very large profit, there is still conflicting guidance about its advisability on the grounds of safety and existing accounting systems may restrict access to the profit. In discussing the desirability of ultrasonic scanning, patients can be informed that there is no reason to believe that there are any risks related to ultrasonic exposure. The imminent availability of inexpensive ultrasonic scanners for the layman is a worrying prospect to which the medical profession should now try to develop a prudent response.

Cost-Benefit Analysis

First-year results of routine alpha-fetoprotein testing on prenatal patients in a family practice.

For one year all pregnant women presenting to a family practice clinic for prenatal care were routinely tested for maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein levels (MSAFP). Unexpectedly, 14 (15.7 percent) of 89 tested patients had low MSAFP levels. All 14 pregnant women underwent appropriate diagnostic workups because of the low MSAFP level and were subsequently followed until delivery. Although the literature reports that low MSAFP levels are associated with chromosomal anomalies, none of the 14 women were delivered of infants with anomalies. Reasons for the unexpectedly high rate of abnormal MSAFP levels were investigated. Investigation revealed that normal values for MSAFP tests had been derived from testing performed on high-risk pregnant women who had an inherently higher rate of abnormal pregnancies and, apparently, a different range for normal MSAFP levels than a population of unselected family practice patients. The results of this study demonstrate that it may not be appropriate to apply diagnostic algorithms based on data derived in high-risk subspecialty clinics to unselected patients in a family practice.

Adult