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Risk prevention and policy-making in automatic systems.

Accidents with automatic production systems are reported to be on the order of one in a hundred or thousand robot-years, while fatal accidents are found to occur one or two orders of magnitude less frequently. Traditions in occupational safety tend to seek for safety targets in terms of zero severe accidents for automatic systems. Decision-making requires a risk assessment balancing potential risk reduction measures and costs within the cultural environment of a production company. This paper presents a simplified procedure which acts as a decision tool. The procedure is based on a risk concept approaching prevention both in a deterministic and in a probabilistic manner. Eight accident scenarios are shown to represent the potential accident processes involving robot interactions with people. Seven prevention policies are shown to cover the accident scenarios in principle. An additional probabilistic approach may indicate which extra safety measures can be taken against what risk reduction and additional costs. The risk evaluation process aims at achieving a quantitative acceptable risk level. For that purpose, three risk evaluation methods are discussed with respect to reaching broad consensus on the safety targets.

Accidents, Occupational

A class of linear spectral models and analyses for the study of longitudinal data.

Longitudinal data can always be represented by a time series with a deterministic trend and randomly correlated residuals, the latter of which do not usually form a stationary process. The class of linear spectral models is a basis for the exploratory analysis of these data. The theory and techniques of factor analysis provide a means by which one component of the residual series can be separated from an error series, and then partitioned into a sum of randomly scaled metameters that characterize the sample paths of the residuals. These metameters, together with linear modelling techniques, are then used to partition the nonrandom trend into a determined component, which is associated with the sample paths of the residuals, and an independent inherent component. Linear spectral models are assumption-free and represent both random and nonrandom trends with fewer terms than any other mixed-effects linear model. Data on body-weight growth of juvenile mice are used in this paper to illustrate the application of linear spectral models, through a relatively sophisticated exploratory analysis.

Animals

Chaos or noise in EEG signals; dependence on state and brain site.

EEG signals have been considered to result either from random processes or to be generated by non-linear dynamic systems exhibiting chaotic behaviour. In the latter case, the system may behave as a deterministic chaotic attractor. The complexity of the attractor can be characterized by the correlation dimension that can be computed from one signal generated by the system. A new procedure was developed and applied in order to test whether the correlation dimension, calculated from an EEG epoch, may correspond to a chaotic attractor or to a random process. This procedure was applied to EEG signals recorded from different sites of the limbic cortex of the rat during different states: wakeful rest, locomotion and in the course of an epileptic seizure induced by kindling. The signals recorded during the first two states had high dimensions and could not be distinguished from random noise. However, during an epileptic seizure the correlation dimension became low (between 2 and 4) indicating that in this state the networks behave as chaotic systems. A low correlation dimension appeared at different times and brain sites during an epileptic seizure. These results show that the computation of the correlation dimension may be useful in order to obtain insight into the dynamics of the propagation of an epileptic seizure in the brain.

Animals

Neural perspectives of cerebral correlates of giftedness.

Giftedness is defined as some special endowment or propensity for creativity, skill, and eminent achievement, found in relatively few individuals among the population. A high order of mental power (IQ), creativity, and motivation (task commitment) appear to be the most universally recognized attributes of the gifted. This report summarizes current knowledge of the cerebral correlates of intelligence and creativity, including physiological measures of EEG, cortical power spectrum, brain evoked potentials, and positron emission tomography. Controversy, debates, contentions, formal hypotheses, and research issues are considered. We are especially interested in the formulation of the deterministic function of EEG-brain dynamics. A CHAOS modeling on hierarchy of cognitive organization and cerebral processing in the gifted is suggested.

Adaptation, Psychological

Diagnostic reasoning.

Research in cognitive science, decision sciences, and artificial intelligence has yielded substantial insights into the nature of diagnostic reasoning. Many elements of the diagnostic process have been identified, and many principles of effective clinical reasoning have been formulated. Three reasoning strategies are considered here: probabilistic, causal, and deterministic. Probabilistic reasoning relies on the statistical relations between clinical variables and is frequently used in formal calculations of disease likelihoods. Probabilistic reasoning is especially useful in evoking diagnostic hypotheses and in assessing the significance of clinical findings and test results. Causal reasoning builds a physiologic model and assesses a patient's findings for coherency and completeness against the model; it functions especially effectively in verification of diagnostic hypotheses. Deterministic reasoning consists of sets of compiled rules generated from routine, well-defined practices. Much human problem solving may derive from activation and implementation of such rules. A deeper understanding of clinical cognition should enhance clinical teaching and patient care.

Cognition

Biosemiotics--a paradigm of biology. Biological signalling on the verge of deterministic chaos.

Biosemiotics is presented as an interdisciplinary approach to the diversity and irregularity of living systems. Emphasizing the interconnectedness by a multitude of signals as a hallmark of life, it goes beyond the scope of a new discipline. As an overarching concept and a new perspective it should be able to integrate a vast array of biological phenomena which till now appear unrelated or incompatible. The basic tenet is that biology, on all levels from molecular biology to ecosystems, can be viewed and investigated as communication, and that life processes can be defined as sign-mediated interaction. Biology thus is, in itself and in all its aspects, natural semiotics with a pronounced proximity to deterministic chaos. Pervading all of biology, the signal is a viable key and a practically feasible access to the understanding of life.

Animals

Bone marrow regeneration under cytotoxic drug regimens: behaviour ranging from homeostasis to unpredictability in a model for hemopoietic differentiation.

In the process of hemopoiesis, bone marrow stem cells differentiate into the various types of mature blood cells. We present a model for bone marrow dynamics, which retrieves its ability to continuously modulate the balance between self-renewal and differentiation, even under periodic cytodestructive perturbations. Yet, a temporally stochastic perturbation results in chaotic-like behaviour which has no deterministic source.

Animals

Record linkage strategies: Part II. Portable software and deterministic matching.

Software to perform record linkage should have several characteristics: (1) portability in being able to function with researchers' current arrangement of computer systems and languages, (2) flexibility in handling different linkage strategies, and (3) low cost in both computer time and researchers' efforts. A linkage package (LINKS) is described which satisfies these criteria; LINKS provides tools for both deterministic and probabilistic linkage as well as test modules for assessing data quality and structure. Because each linkage project is different, the modular nature of the software allows for better control of the programming process and development of unique strategies. Since the user provides the weights and decision rules, he may modify data between steps and/or develop extra steps to supplement the basic modules. In two information-rich linkage projects involving California AIDS data, LINKS identified mortality using deterministic approaches and permitted comparisons with other software and strategies. Flexible software and a deterministic approach would have eliminated the expensive key entry used to add full names and social security numbers as additional identifiers to one of the California data files.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome

Pedigree Painter (pepa): a tool for the visualization of genetic inheritance in chromosomal context.

MOTIVATION: Data visualization is increasingly important in genomics, enabling researchers to uncover inheritance and recombination patterns across generations. While most existing tools focus on ancestry prediction, they lack functionality for analyzing known ancestries in controlled settings, such as determining parental contributions to offspring genomes. To address this gap, I developed pepa, a lightweight, deterministic, modular tool that visualizes and quantifies genomic inheritance, designed for beginner and advanced users. RESULTS: pepa is a program for processing VCF files, assigning ancestries to homozygous SNPs, and clustering them into biologically meaningful regions. It generates human-readable comparison tables and visualizes inheritance patterns with chromosome paintings through R. Tested on fission yeast, pepa revealed non-uniform recombination patterns, with chromosomes largely inherited from one parent and seemingly random recombination. Quantitative analyses showed differences in parental contributions at the nucleotide and gene levels, with some offspring inheriting similar percentages from parents. However, the painted chromosomes revealed that even offspring with similar percentages from one parent rarely inherit the same genomic region, highlighting the importance of this tool in drawing biologically meaningful insights. pepa provides an accessible and powerful solution for analyzing genomic inheritance, bridging experimental and computational biology. Its modular design and minimal dependencies allow adaptation to diverse organisms, facilitating intuitive visualization and quantitative insights into recombination dynamics.

Pedigree

Optimal harvesting of a logistic population in an environment with stochastic jumps.

Dynamic programming is employed to examine the effects of large, sudden changes in population size on the optimal harvest strategy of an exploited resource population. These changes are either adverse or favorable and are assumed to occur at times of events of a Poisson process. The amplitude of these jumps is assumed to be density independent. In between the jumps the population is assumed to grow logistically. The Bellman equation for the optimal discounted present value is solved numerically and the optimal feedback control computed for the random jump model. The results are compared to the corresponding results for the quasi-deterministic approximation. In addition, the sensitivity of the results to the discount rate, the total jump rate and the quadratic cost factor is investigated. The optimal results are most strongly sensitive to the rate of stochastic jumps and to the quadratic cost factor to a lesser extent when the deterministic bioeconomic parameters are taken from aggregate antarctic pelagic whaling data.

Animals

A stochastic analysis of the repair of radiation-induced DNA double-strand breaks.

A three-state stochastic model is described for the repair of radiation-induced double-strand breaks (DSBs) in DNA. If irradiated, a site or region in DNA is assumed to be in a potentially damaged state; this site may either become permanently damaged or be repaired after a certain period of time. The result of the analysis of the available experimental data reveals that the present two-parameter model is capable of interpreting the rapid decrease in the number of DSBs in the initial period, which cannot be predicted by previously proposed models. The stochastic analysis yields not only the temporal variation of the mean of the number of DSBs but also its variance, and therefore is a generalization of the conventional deterministic models.

DNA

A cybernetic approach to the origin of the genetic coding mechanism. I. Methodological principles.

It is postulated that some quasi-deterministic code features (universality, connectedness, systematic degeneracy, symmetry, regularity and so on) resulted from unique (and therefore universal) relization of a stochastic evolutionary process. The evolution of real genetic systems should satisfy the principle of succession; that is, loss of a feature that is necessary for a genetic system means death to its carrier. The hypothesis of unique key coincidence is proposed which indicates the mechanisms of arising of the primary correspondence between the linear structures of polynucleotides and polypeptides. If the collinear coincidence was to appear in the key positions of pra-protein with, at least, some of the primitive properties of the pra-amino-acyl-t-RNA-synthetase required for the accelerated recognition of the key positions of pra-template, the positive feed-back mechanism in the system would be most short-circuited so that the repetitive reproduction of pra-synthetase would be much accelerated.

Amino Acyl-tRNA Synthetases

An evaluation of sensory noise in the human visual system.

It is assumed that the activity of a visual channel may be represented as V(t) = g(t) + xi(t), where g(t) is the deterministic response of the channel due to the presentation of a stimulus and xi(t) is the trajectory of a wide-sense stationary Gauss process. The stimulus is detected if the event (V(t) greater than S for at least one t epsilon[0, T]) occurs. Two approximations for the probability of this event are proposed, and it is demonstrated how they may be employed to estimate (i) the value of the second spectral moment lambda 2 of the noise process xi t, where lambda 2 reflects the speed of the fluctuations of the trajectories xi(t), and (ii) the value of the internal threshold S. The commonly made assumption of peak--detection is shown to serve as a very good first approximation in particular if the channel is of transient type or--in case of detection by a channel of sustained type--if the stimulus durations are not too long.

Humans

[Synergetics--a possible hypothetical approach to better understanding of pathologic processes].

Modern understanding of the human disease cannot be reduced only on the disturbed biological processes of the living organism. Disease as the consequence of the disorders of a complex system needs in the same sense a complex view. It is necessary to take in consideration the theory of systems, the concept of layers and the idea of the deterministic chaos. A helpful clamp to coordinate these different views seems to be the synergetics, the teaching of the cooperation in complex systems. Synergetics investigate the mechanisms of the self-organization, too. The self-organization is of great significance in the phylogenetic and ontogenetic morphogenesis. Especially all diseases which are characterized by the disorders in the differentiation the processes forming "Gestalten" are to understand as processes of the disturbed self-organization. These refers the malformations, the malignant tumours and the chronic diseases. Self-organization being a system-internal mechanism is to understand as a process which determines the behaviour of complex organized living systems in confrontation with their environment.

Biological Evolution

Random drug excess.

If a patient is treated in a hospital, drugs are administered at 'deterministic', known times. However, if the patient is not supervised the times of drug intake may be less 'deterministic' and less well known. It seems therefore worthwhile to make a theoretical experiment in which one assumes that drugs are applied according to a random process. In the present article it is proposed that shot noise models could be used to represent concentration curves in such situations. By means of Monte Carlo methods different measures of random drug excess are described. An included program may encourage readers to consider these methods and to perform computer experiments.

Drug Administration Schedule

[Dynamic computer models of xenobiotics].

On the basis of the physical substance transport in the circulatory system a dynamic pharmacokinetic model is developed. The method describes the behaviour of xenobiotics and their metabolites by direct simulation of the transport and the distribution in the bloodstream and tissues by suitable algorithms in discrete steps. The cardiovascular system represented by a 2-(or 3-)dimensional array is connected to other kinetic relevant components, likewise represented by arrays of suitable dimensions and acting as transport-, storage, distribution-, exchange- and reaction areas. (Bio-)chemical transformation is accounted for by introducing an identical new set of arrays, one set for each metabolite. The overall characterisation of a model needs a great variety of coefficients, thus creating a highly flexible tool for the study of kinetic processes. The result being a time- and position-dependent discrete distribution of substance reflects the heterogeneity and complexity of a real biological system. The compartmental (deterministic and stochastic) models are of course a subset of the DVM.

Algorithms

Saltatory transitions are a naturally occurring property of evolving systems.

On the basis of paleological evidence, it has been suggested that biological evolution need not necessarily be characterized by gradual change. Rather, evolutionary history may display saltatory periods of rapid speciation alternating with periods of relative quiescence, the whole dynamic being called punctuated equilibria. The empirical evidence that has been presented in support of this hypothesis has been the object of a vigorous dispute. Mathematical investigations of complex models of biological evolution that contain random elements have demonstrated that these systems can display saltatory behavior. In this paper we address a more abstract question: can saltations occur in the evolution of very simple, deterministic mathematical systems that function in a constant environment? The answer appears to be yes. Saltations appear as a natural dynamical behavior in the evolution of simplistic information processing networks. We stress that these networks do not constitute a model of biological evolution. However, the appearance of saltations in such simple systems suggests that their appearance in a process as complex as biological evolution is not surprising.

Animals