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PubMed1975

The secular decline in dizygotic twinning rates in italy.

It is shown that the recent secular decline in DZ twinning rates in Italy was not solely due to secular changes in birth order or maternal age. The extent of the decline differed in different maternal age-parity categories. It seemed to be greater in younger women than older ones for constant parity. The data gave no clear support to the suggestion that the decline is associated with social class. It seems that this secular decline in Italy has not been greatly affected by the use of ovulation-inducing drugs.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Secular trends in first hospitalizations for major mood disorders with comorbid substance use.

In the past half-century, the incidence of major mood disorders reportedly has risen, and onset age, diminished. Substance-use disorders (SUDs) are commonly comorbid with mood disorders and may influence their course and outcome. Since secular relationships of these disorders remain unknown, we evaluated medical records of 421 patients (233 men, 188 women) at first-lifetime admissions for major depression, mania or mixed bipolar episodes at a public hospital in Italy during 1978-2002, updated diagnoses to DSM-IV criteria, and compared selected factors between subjects with vs. without SUDs, seeking evidence of secular trends in SUDs in association with early mood disorders. SUD was diagnosed in 122 patients (29.0%). SUD risk was greatest in young males. Relative risk (RR) of diagnostic association with SUDs ranked: mixed states (RR 1.80), mania (RR 1.06), depression (RR 0.55). Annual rates of comorbid SUD and mood disorders increased continuously over the 25-yr epoch for all substances (r=0.640, p<0.001). Age at onset of illness and at first hospitalization (averaging 36 yr and 38 yr) were unrelated to year of hospitalization in this relatively brief sampling, but patients with SUD were younger at onset and admission, overall. Clinical Global Impression (CGI) ratings of illness severity at hospitalization and discharge were stable across years. These findings indicate a secular increase of comorbid SUD among first admissions for mood disorder, especially in young males, with a parallel increase in the proportion of bipolar disorder diagnoses over the past quarter of a century.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

In a secular spirit: strategies of Clinical Pastoral Education.

The Clinical Pastoral Education (CPE) model for the provision of spiritual care represents the emergence of a secularized professional practice from a religiously-based theological practice of chaplaincy. The transformation of hospital chaplaincy into "spiritual care services" is one means by which religious healthcare ministry negotiates modernity, in the particular forms of the secular realm of biomedicine and the pluralism of the contemporary United States healthcare marketplace. "Spiritual" is a label strategically deployed to extend the realm of relevance to any patient's "belief system:" regardless of his or her religious affiliation. "Theological" language is recast as a tool for conceptualizing the "spiritual lens:' Such moves transform chaplaincy from a peripheral service, applicable only to the few "religious" patients, into an integral element of patient care for all. Such a secularized professional practice is necessary to demonstrate the relevance and utility of spiritual care for all hospital patients in an era of cost-containment priorities and managed care economics.

Chaplaincy Service, Hospital↗

PubMed2006

Racial and ethnic differences in secular trends for childhood BMI, weight, and height.

OBJECTIVES: The prevalence of childhood overweight in the United States has markedly increased over the last 30 years. We examined differences in the secular trends for BMI, weight, and height among white, black, and Mexican-American children. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: Analyses were based on nationally representative data collected from 2 to 17 year olds in four examinations (1971-1974 through 1999-2002). RESULTS: Overall, black children experienced much larger secular increases in BMI, weight, and height than did white children. For example, over the 30-year period, the prevalence of overweight increased approximately 3-fold (4% to 13%) among 6- to 11-year-old white children but 5-fold (4% to 20%) among black children. In most sex-age groups, Mexican-American children experienced increases in BMI and overweight that were between those experienced by blacks and whites. Race/ethnicity differences were less marked among 2 to 5 year olds, and in this age group, white children experienced the largest increase in overweight (from 4% to 9%). In 1999-2002, the prevalence of extreme BMI levels (> or =99th percentile) reached 6% to 7% among black girls and Mexican-American boys. DISCUSSION: Because of the strong tracking of childhood BMI levels into adulthood, it is likely that the secular increases in childhood overweight will greatly increase the burden of adult disease. The further development of obesity interventions in different racial/ethnic groups should be emphasized.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2005

Secular trends in under-reporting in young people.

National survey data show that reported energy intake has decreased in recent decades despite a rise in the prevalence of obesity. This disparity may be due to a secular increase in under-reporting or a quantitatively greater decrease in energy expenditure. This study examines the extent of under-reporting of energy intake in the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS) in young people aged 4-18 years in 1997 using published equations to calculate estimated energy requirements. It explores secular changes by comparison with the Diets of British School Children (DBSC) survey in 10-11- and 14-15-year-olds in 1983. In the NDNS, under-reporting (estimated energy requirements--energy intake) represented 21 % of energy needs in girls and 20 % in boys. The magnitude of under-reporting increased significantly with age (P<0.001) and was higher in overweight than lean individuals over 7 years of age. To compare reported energy intake in DBSC and NDNS, the estimated physical activity level from dietary records (dPAL=reported energy intake/predicted BMR) was calculated. If there were no under-reporting, dPAL would represent the subject's true activity level. However, dPAL from the NDNS was significantly lower than that from the DBSC by 8 % and 9 % in boys and girls for those aged 10-11 years, and by 14 % and 11 % for 14-15-year-olds respectively, reaching physiologically implausible levels in the 14-15-year-old girls (dPAL=1.17). If activity levels have remained constant between the two surveys, under-reporting has increased by 8-14 %. The evidence supports a secular trend towards increased under-reporting between the two surveys, but the precise magnitude cannot be quantified in the absence of historical measures of energy expenditure.

Adolescent↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Height and secular trend in conscripts born in the Central Apennines (Italy), 1865-1972.

OBJECTIVE: The main aim of the research was to evaluate the effects of prolonged isolation on the secular trend of height in an internal zone of the central Apennines (Abruzzo, Province of L'Aquila). METHODS: Personal data for 1006 military conscripts in five sample years from 1865 to 1972 were used. The mean, standard deviation, median, skewness and kurtosis were calculated. Normal distribution of the data was assessed by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (Monte Carlo method). Differences between the means were tested by ANOVA and the Tukey test. RESULTS: Mean height increased from 161.3 +/- 5.97 cm in 1865 to 172.6 +/- 6.28 cm in 1972. The increases were slight, but constant, in the first 80 years: between 0.44 and 0.86 cm/decade, but greater thereafter: 2.37 cm/decade between 1945 and 1972. Regarding the frequency distribution, skewness showed negative values only in 1865 (-0.37 +/- 0.21). The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test did not show significance for any period. CONCLUSIONS: The results confirm that the mean heights in south-central Italy, including Abruzzo, were lower than those of the more economically advanced regions of northern Italy in each period. The difference has decreased greatly in the last few generations, but the secular trend is continuing in these communities. This seems to be due to prolonged isolation which has retarded economic development and favoured endogamy and genetic drift. However, it has also prevented the negative effects of wars, since there was no reduction of the secular trend in those periods.

Adolescent↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Adult height corrected for shrinking and secular trend.

BACKGROUND: If in growth studies on adults of different ages and generations height standard deviation scores (SDS) is to be calculated, individual heights should be compared with the average height for that generation (corrected for secular trend) at that age (corrected for shrinking). AIM: To generate mathematical formulas for calculating adult height SDS corrected for shrinking and secular trend. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Decline of height by age was modelled based on data derived from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging. Based on mean height of Dutch conscripts in 1917 and data from four consecutive nationwide growth studies (1955, 1965, 1980 and 1997), and assuming a constant male-female difference of 13 cm, the secular trend was modelled over 80 years. The average coefficient of variation was calculated from the last three Dutch nationwide growth studies. RESULTS: Height at 21 years of age can be estimated as current height t 0.042*(age - 21) -0.0015*(age - 21)2 for males, and current height + 0.039*(age - 21) + 0.0019*(age - 21)2 for females. Mean height of 21-year-olds between 1917 and 1997 is characterized by linear regression. The coefficient of variation was close to 3.8%. Adult height SDS is calculated by the equation (A - B)/(0.038B), where A is the estimated individual height at 21 years and B is the average height of 21-year-olds in that generation. CONCLUSION: For studies on adult height at various ages and in various generations, these equations can be used to reduce experimental noise.

Adult↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Growth patterns and secular trends over four decades in the dynamics of height growth of Indian boys and girls in Sri Aurobindo Ashram: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Growth parameters are widely used in the assessment of health, nutrition and physical characteristics of a population; however, there still exist uncertainties regarding ethnic variation and the influence of physical activity on growth. Due to the paucity of longitudinal data, the dynamics of the adolescent growth spurt have not been satisfactorily examined in most populations. AIM: The main purpose of this longitudinal study is to present the secular trends in the dynamics of height growth over four decades. In the process, this paper also aims to establish current norms for some biological parameters of growth and to address issues concerning ethnic variation and the effect of childhood physical activity on growth. METHODOLOGY: Three hundred and one boys and 235 girls of Indian origin who had been enrolled in the Sri Aurobindo International Centre of Education (SAICE) by age 6 and remained for at least 3 uninterrupted years were divided into four birth cohort periods. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were carried out to derive distance, velocity and acceleration curves. RESULTS: No significant differences were found between ethnic groups in any of the growth parameters. Over the 40-year span of this study, SAICE children prove to be taller than their Indian peers. A significant positive secular trend was seen in the height attained at all velocity turning points over the first two decades. Most pre-pubertal growth parameters in these children resemble those from developed nations. CONCLUSIONS: Children from most parts of India have similar genetic growth potential. After a significant positive secular trend in height attained over the first 20 years, the adult height has now plateaued. The significant difference in post-pubertal stature between the current generation and those of European origin indicates a genetic difference. Regular and graded physical activities have a salutary effect on growth. The data provide norms for healthy, active Indian child growing up in a satisfactory environment.

Adolescent↗

PubMedDate not supplied

The secular trend in the height of primary school children in England and Scotland from 1972-1980.

Data from 29 230 children in 22 areas in England and 6 in Scotland were used to estimate the secular trend in height of primary school children over the period 1972-1980. The children were from 15 birth cohorts, born 1961-1975. The method of analysis was selected in order to give estimates from mixed longitudinal data, in which the number of measurements differed from cohort to cohort and children with incomplete data could not be assumed to be comparable to those measured at every age. When the overall goodness-of-fit to height data of polynomials in age was examined, for children measured on 7 or 8 occasions, it was found that cubic polynomials were necessary to describe the growth of boys and girls over the age range 5.0 to 11.0 years, but that cubic and quadratic coefficients could not be interpreted for individual children. No evidence of a mid-growth spurt in height was found. Models fitted to mean heights showed that there was a secular trend of increasing height over the period studied, which was greater when estimated at age eight years than at age five. At age 8 the trend was greatest in Scottish boys, 1.5 cm per decade, and least in English girls, 0.5 cm per decade. The data do not distinguish between a trend due to earlier maturation and a trend resulting in increased adult height; further data will show whether the lack of positive trend at age five estimated from the later cohorts was due to a recent cessation of secular trend.

Body Height↗

PubMed1988

Secular trends in body mass index and skinfold thickness with socioeconomic factors in young adult men.

Secular trends in the relationship of body mass index (BMI) and skinfold thickness to educational and income levels were examined for white and black men aged 18-34 y over the period 1960-80 with data from three successive national surveys: NHES Cycle I, NHANES I, and NHANES II. Statistical models were fitted to assess the variability in mean BMI over time within levels of education or income. There were few secular changes in mean BMI. In both white and black men a secular change from a slight positive association between mean BMI and education to a negative association was characterized chiefly by an increase in mean BMI at the lowest educational level. A slight positive association between income level and mean BMI persisted almost unchanged over this period. Mean BMI was similar for black and white men. These findings are compared and contrasted with those from a similar study for young women.

Adult↗

PubMed1987

The secular trend in size and maturational timing and its implications for nutritional assessment.

For most westernized countries there has been a marked intergenerational increase in size and a decrease in the age at menarche, both interrupted or temporarily reversed during economic disruption or war-time deprivation. In some Third World countries such secular trends have not yet occurred or there have been actual decreases in body size. The presence or absence of secular trends can be used as a form of nutritional surveillance, and in the westernized world the magnitude of secular trends necessitates continual updating of dimensional and maturational standards used in nutritional appraisal.

Female↗

PubMed1996

Change and secular trends in physical activity patterns in young adults: a seven-year longitudinal follow-up in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study (CARDIA).

Levels and changes in self-reported physical activity over a 7-year period were examined to determine tracking and to estimate the proportion of total cohort change attributable to secular trends. A population-based sample of 2,328 men and 2,787 women aged 18-30 years at baseline (52% black and 48% white) from Birmingham, Alabama, Chicago, Illinois, Minneapolis, Minnesota, and Oakland, California, were examined four times between 1985-1986 and 1992-1993. The intraclass correlation for up to four measures was 0.57 for the entire sample, varying between 0.57 for white men and 0.42 for black women, indicating a moderate tendency for tracking. The energy expenditure in physical activity at each examination was greatest in black men and, compared with black men, about 5% less in white men, 30% less in white women, and 50% less in black women. The total cohort decrease in mean physical activity was approximately 30% in each race-sex group. The secular trend accounted for 38% of the total cohort change in black men, 43% in black women, 52% in white men, and 81% in white women. Physical activity declined sharply during the early years of adulthood, partly because of secular trend. Young adults are therefore an important target group for physical activity promotion programs to reverse individual and populationwide declines prior to middle age.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1995

Evaluation of secular trends in CD4+ lymphocyte loss among human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected men with known dates of seroconversion.

The rate at which immunodeficiency develops in untreated human immunodeficiency virus type 1(HIV-1)-infected persons might be increasing or decreasing over time because of viral evolution or other factors. Beginning in 1984, Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study investigators recruited HIV-1-seronegative homosexual/bisexual men from four US metropolitan areas and examined them semiannually for HIV-1 seroconversion. To assess possible secular changes in the natural history of HIV-1 infection, the authors examined CD4+ lymphocyte data from 354 men who seroconverted between 1984 and 1991. To control for measurement differences among centers and over time, the authors adjusted CD4+ lymphocyte values to those of persistently seronegative participants. CD4+ lymphocyte percentage measurements at the first seropositive visit formed a U-shaped pattern, with the lowest values observed in 1988 and 1989. The authors observed no consistent secular pattern of CD4+ percentages at later visit dates, except that mean CD4+ percentages were consistently lowest in men who seroconverted in 1988. In a proportional hazards model, the time to the adjusted CD4+ lymphocyte count of < 500 cells/mm3 was not associated with the secular time of seroconversion (relative hazard = 1.05, 95% confidence interval 0.97-1.13). The authors' data do not suggest a major change in the natural history of HIV-1 infection of this population.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

PubMed2004

A polymorphic CA repeat in the IGF-I gene is associated with gender-specific differences in body height, but has no effect on the secular trend in body height.

OBJECTIVE: A polymorphism near the promoter region of the IGF-I gene has been associated with serum IGF-I levels, age-related decline of serum IGF-I levels, body height, birth weight and intima media thickness in hypertensive subjects. DESIGN AND METHODS: We investigated the association between the length of the IGF-I alleles of this promoter polymorphism and IGF-I levels and body height. Furthermore, we investigated the potential influence of this polymorphism on final height in relationship to the secular trend of individuals born between 1917 and 1945. All subjects were participants of the Rotterdam Study. RESULTS: We observed, in analyses including only homozygous carriers, the highest IGF-I levels in homozygous carriers of the 192-bp allele (18.7 nmol/l +/- 0.6) and homozygous carriers of the 194-bp allele (17.7 nmol/l +/- 1.4). IGF-I levels were significantly lower in individuals with homozygous longer alleles [> 194-bp (12.0 nmol/l +/- 1.2; P < 0.001)] and homozygous shorter alleles [< 192-bp (15.6 nmol/l +/- 1.4; P < 0.05)] compared to homozygous carriers of the 192-bp and the 194-bp allele. In males and females separately, an optimum for serum IGF-I was also observed in homozygous carriers of the 192-bp and 194-bp allele. Only in males, homozygous carriers of the 192-bp allele were significantly taller than homozygous carriers of the shorter alleles (174.9 cm +/- 0.2 vs. 171.5 cm +/- 1.4; P = 0.01). When all subjects genotyped for the IGF-I promoter polymorphism were included in the analysis, a clear optimum for IGF-I levels and body height was observed in carriers of the 192-bp and/or 194-bp allele in the total population. Between 1917 and 1945, a secular trend in body height was observed in our Dutch population. Mean final body height was significantly higher in carriers of the most frequent alleles (192-bp and/or the 194-bp), than carriers of the remaining shorter and longer genotypes (P-trend < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, we observed an optimum in IGF-I levels and final body height for the 192-bp and 194-bp allele of the IGF-I gene. A gender-specific effect of the IGF-I alleles on body height was observed. The secular trend in body height observed in our elderly Dutch population was similar for the different genotypes; carriers of the 192-bp and/or the 194-bp allele remained significantly taller throughout time.

Adenosine↗

PubMed2004

The politics of engagement between Islam and the secular state: ambivalences of 'civil society'.

The paper reveals contemporary transformations of the interaction between Islam and secular states from opposition to engagement. In-depth ethnographic evidence challenges the predominant juxtaposition of Islam against the secular state. Following micro-sites of interaction between the Gülen movement and the state from Turkey to Kazakhstan, my fieldwork revealed a continuum of engagements between them. The paper analyses the engagements ranging from contestation and negotiation to co-operation. The case illustrates the extent to which scholarly interest in opposition and clash has left a wide-ranging variety of state-Islam interaction understudied with regard to civil society. It also reveals the conditions under which effective Islamic horizontal organizations have provided the platforms of vertical engagements with the secular states. The major argument of the paper is that both civil and uncivil outcomes in the Muslim world are primarily shaped by the nature of state-Islam interaction. The evidence suggests that the key to understanding the relationship between Islam and civil society is the state.

Anthropology, Cultural↗

PubMed1988

Secular trends in the familial transmission of alcoholism.

This is a study of the familial transmission of alcoholism in the families of 60 female and 240 male alcoholics ascertained in four psychiatric hospital units and in a local parole office. Eight hundred and thirty-one interviewed first-degree relatives and 125 spouses are included. The lifetime population prevalences of alcoholism in white males and females based on the Epidemiological Catchment Area Study in St. Louis were compared with the family rates. A semistructured comprehensive interview schedule (Home Environment and Lifetime Psychiatric Evaluation Record) was used and diagnoses made according to Feighner criteria for alcoholism. The methods of Survival Analysis established the presence of strong secular trends in the age-of-onset and lifetime prevalence of alcoholism in these families and in the general population. Accordingly, new methods for the analysis of family data that incorporate secular variation were developed. The Multifactorial Model of Disease Transmission was used to estimate familial correlations and these were parameterized by the "Tau" model of Familial Transmission. The model does not assume that all familial resemblance is due to genetic factors, but also includes the possibility of nongenetic transmission. Our analyses confirmed that more recently born cohorts of individuals had increased expected lifetime prevalences of alcoholism and decreased ages of onset, when compared with older cohorts. Separate age-of-onset distributions were required for males and females and the secular trends in age-of-onset were greatest in females. The differences between males and females were least in more recently born cohorts suggesting that sex-specific differences in the family and population distribution of alcoholism are decreasing.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Secular trends in cardiorespiratory fitness and body mass index in Danish children: The European Youth Heart Study.

AIM: To examine the secular trends in cardiorespiratory fitness (CF) and body fatness in Danish children. Trends were analyzed overall and across socioeconomic status (SES). METHODS: Two cross-sectional studies conducted on 589 and 458 third-grade Danish children in 1997-1998 and 2003-2004, respectively. CF was determined by a maximal cycle-ergometer test. The lowest sex-specific quartile of CF in the study from 1997 to 1998 was used as a cut-point for low CF. Body mass index (BMI) cut-points were used to describe overweight, and SES was divided into two groups according to parents' occupation. RESULTS: This study showed a secular decline in CF in girls overall. Increased CF, BMI, and prevalence of overweight were observed in boys with high SES, in boys with low SES, and in girls with low SES, respectively. However, after additional Bonferroni's correction, none of the statistical analyses performed across socioeconomic gradients reached significant P-values. CONCLUSION: CF declined in girls overall. Although not statistically significant after additional Bonferroni's correction, results in general showed less favorable trends in low SES children. Thus, trying to describe secular trends in CF and body fatness overall without any regard to SES might disguise social-caused differences. However, further studies are needed in order to verify this hypothesis.

Body Mass Index↗

PubMed1995

Age and secular trends in risk factors for cardiovascular disease in Busselton.

Mortality rates from heart disease and stroke in Australia have been falling for more than 20 years. No completely satisfactory explanations for this trend exist. However, it is believed to be due, at least in part, to changes in the incidence of cardiovascular disease arising from changes in the prevalence and severity of risk factors for cardiovascular disease. The adult community of Busselton in Western Australia participated in cross-sectional health surveys every three years from 1966 to 1981. This paper describes secular trends from 1966 to 1981 and age trends from 25 to 80 years for cardiovascular risk factors in Busselton men and women. Downwards secular trends were observed for mean blood pressure and smoking for men and women, upwards trends were observed for body mass index in men, and mean cholesterol was approximately constant over this period. The age and secular trends were consistent with other Australian studies conducted in the 1980s and with overseas studies. An estimated 67 per cent of the decline in cardiovascular mortality rates among Busselton men and 22 per cent of the decline among Busselton women may be attributed to changes in the prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease.

Adult↗