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PubMedDate not supplied

Low mitochondrial diversity and small effective population sizes of the copepods Calanus finmarchicus and Nannocalanus minor: possible impact of climatic variation during recent glaciation.

Molecular population genetic diversity of two planktonic copepods of the North Atlantic, Calanus finmarchicus and Nannocalanus minor (Crustacea, Copepoda, Calanoida), was characterized using the sequence variation in a 350 bp region of the mitochondrial 16S rRNA gene. The subarctic species, C. finmarchicus, shows lower population genetic diversity (haplotype diversity, h = 0.368, SD = 0.043; nucleotide diversity, pi = 0.00370, SD = 0.0026) than the temperate/subtropical species, N. minor (h = 0.824, SD = 0.024; pi = 0.00502, SD = 0.0032). Effective population sizes (N(e), estimated from numbers of haplotypes) and effective female population sizes (Nf(e), estimated from nucleotide diversities) for the two species are 10(7) to 10(10) smaller than census female population sizes (Nf) estimated from observed densities and areal distributions. For both C. finmarchicus and N. minor, Nf approximately 10(15), N(e) approximately 10(8), and Nf(e) approximately 10(5). We hypothesize that the cause of both low levels of molecular diversity and small effective population sizes of the two species is the impact of glaciation during the past 20,000 years. C. finmarchicus may have experienced 75% range reduction and latitudinal displacement during the last glacial maximum at 18,000 years BP, giving rise to a genetic bottleneck; this may explain low diversity and an L-shaped distribution of pairwise haplotype differences. In contrast, N. minor may have experienced range reduction of only 30% and less change in latitudinal extent, with less impact of levels of molecular diversity and the shape of the pairwise difference distribution. Although marine zooplankton species are highly abundant, conservation biologists should note that their numbers may vary significantly on climatic to evolutionary time scales, generating low levels of molecular genetic diversity.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Reproductive success and effective population size in woodrats (Neotoma macrotis).

Discrepancies between the census size and the genetically effective size of populations (N(e)) can be caused by a number of behavioural and demographic factors operating within populations. Specifically, strong skew in male reproductive success, as would be expected in a polygynous mating system, could cause a substantial decrease in N(e) relative to census size. Because the mating system of Neotoma macrotis had previously been described as one nearing harem polygyny, I examined the distribution of reproductive success and genetic variation within a population of this species. Combining genetic data and three years of field observations, I show that variance in reproductive success does not deviate from poisson expectations within either sex and variance in success is similar between the sexes. Furthermore, both males and females had multiple partners across litters in addition to some evidence of multiple paternity within litters. Despite a lack of strong skew in reproductive success, an estimate of N(e) based on a number of demographic parameters suggests that the ratio of N(e)/N in this population is 0.48. Although the ratio of N(e)/N suggests that the population is experiencing higher rates of genetic drift than would be expected based on census size alone, the population maintains high levels of genetic diversity. Estimates of neighbourhood size and patterns of recruitment to the study site suggest that immigration plays an important role in this population and may contribute to the maintenance of high levels of genetic diversity.

Animals↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Population size, distribution and growth in Iran.

The author examines population size, distribution, and growth in Iran using data for 1966, 1976 census data, and some historical data for the nineteenth century. "This paper discusses changes in the size of population through time, population distribution, and regional patterns of population growth of the 23 provinces. It has been argued in this paper that because of a large family size norm as a religious duty to increase the numbers of the Islamic faith, early age at marriage, especially among females, common practice of polygamy, and the war with Iraq, population will grow even faster. It is concluded that population policy must be integrated into the national development plans."

Asia↗
PubMed2003

Estimating ancestral population sizes and divergence times.

This article presents a new method for jointly estimating species divergence times and ancestral population sizes. The method improves on previous ones by explicitly incorporating intragenic recombination, by utilizing orthologous sequence data from closely related species, and by using a maximum-likelihood framework. The latter allows for efficient use of the available information and provides a way of assessing how much confidence we should place in the estimates. I apply the method to recently collected intergenic sequence data from humans and the great apes. The results suggest that the human-chimpanzee ancestral population size was four to seven times larger than the current human effective population size and that the current human effective population size is slightly >10,000. These estimates are similar to previous ones, and they appear relatively insensitive to assumptions about the recombination rates or mutation rates across loci.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Effect of population size on the estimation of QTL: a test using resistance to barley stripe rust.

The limited population sizes used in many quantitative trait locus (QTL) detection experiments can lead to underestimation of QTL number, overestimation of QTL effects, and failure to quantify QTL interactions. We used the barley/barley stripe rust pathosystem to evaluate the effect of population size on the estimation of QTL parameters. We generated a large (n = 409) population of doubled haploid lines derived from the cross of two inbred lines, BCD47 and Baronesse. This population was evaluated for barley stripe rust severity in the Toluca Valley, Mexico, and in Washington State, USA, under field conditions. BCD47 was the principal donor of resistance QTL alleles, but the susceptible parent also contributed some resistance alleles. The major QTL, located on the long arm of chromosome 4H, close to the Mlo gene, accounted for up to 34% of the phenotypic variance. Subpopulations of different sizes were generated using three methods-resampling, selective genotyping, and selective phenotyping-to evaluate the effect of population size on the estimation of QTL parameters. In all cases, the number of QTL detected increased with population size. QTL with large effects were detected even in small populations, but QTL with small effects were detected only by increasing population size. Selective genotyping and/or selective phenotyping approaches could be effective strategies for reducing the costs associated with conducting QTL analysis in large populations. The method of choice will depend on the relative costs of genotyping versus phenotyping.

Analysis of Variance↗
PubMed1999

Mutators, population size, adaptive landscape and the adaptation of asexual populations of bacteria.

Selection of mutator alleles, increasing the mutation rate up to 10, 000-fold, has been observed during in vitro experimental evolution. This spread is ascribed to the hitchhiking of mutator alleles with favorable mutations, as demonstrated by a theoretical model using selective parameters corresponding to such experiments. Observations of unexpectedly high frequencies of mutators in natural isolates suggest that the same phenomenon could occur in the wild. But it remains questionable whether realistic in natura parameter values could also result in selection of mutators. In particular, the main parameters of adaptation, the size of the adapting population and the height and steepness of the adaptive peak characterizing adaptation, are very variable in nature. By simulation approach, we studied the effect of these parameters on the selection of mutators in asexual populations, assuming additive fitness. We show that the larger the population size, the more likely the fixation of mutator alleles. At a large population size, at least four adaptive mutations are needed for mutator fixation; moreover, under stronger selection stronger mutators are selected. We propose a model based on multiple mutations to illustrate how second-order selection can optimize population fitness when few favorable mutations are required for adaptation.

Adaptation, Physiological↗
PubMed1998

[Industrial waste as indicator of population size: possible utilization in mountain resort tourist stations?].

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies, conducted in touristic resorts, often face the difficulty of assessing the size of the referent population. Recently, some population size indicators, have been tested. Among them, the amount of municipal waste seems to be easy and readily accessible. The purpose of the study is to describe how this indicator can be used in touristic mountain resorts. METHODS: Four touristic resorts were chosen in Isère departement (France): Alpe d'Huez, Deux Alpes, Chamrousse, plateau du Vercors. The evolution of municipal waste over several years was used to compute an individual output level for residents and for tourists. This waste indicator was compared with data on tourists reservations in hotels in the resorts. RESULTS: We found a good fit during touristic seasons in three resorts (Spearman test). For the last one (Chamrousse), the correlation rate was low. We think that the type of tourism is different in this resort with many non residents. CONCLUSIONS: This indicator is reliable but needs further validation by sample surveys across several sites and several types of lodging. We propose to estimate the size of the referent population, based on an individual output of 1 kg per person and per day for residents and 0.5 kg per person per day for tourists.

France↗
PubMed2000

A simple method of removing the effect of a bottleneck and unequal population sizes on pairwise genetic distances.

In this paper, we derive the expectation of two popular genetic distances under a model of pure population fission allowing for unequal population sizes. Under the model, we show that conventional genetic distances are not proportional to the divergence time and generally overestimate it due to unequal genetic drift and to a bottleneck effect at the divergence time. This bias cannot be totally removed even if the present population sizes are known. Instead, we present a method to estimate the divergence times between populations which is based on the average number of nucleotide differences within and between populations. The method simultaneously estimates the divergence time, the ancestral population size and the relative sizes of the derived populations. A simulation study revealed that this method is essentially unbiased and that it leads to better estimates than traditional approaches for a very wide range of parameter values. Simulations also indicated that moderate population growth after divergence has little effect on the estimates of all three estimated parameters. An application of our method to a comparison of humans and chimpanzee mitochondrial DNA diversity revealed that common chimpanzees have a significantly larger female population size than humans.

Animals↗
PubMed1992

The effect of linkage and population size on inbreeding depression due to mutational load.

Using a stochastic model of a finite population in which there is mutation to partially recessive detrimental alleles at many loci, we study the effects of population size and linkage between the loci on the population mean fitness and inbreeding depression values. Although linkage between the selected loci decreases the amount of inbreeding depression, neither population size nor recombination rate have strong effects on these quantities, unless extremely small values are assumed. We also investigate how partial linkage between the loci that determine fitness affects the invasion of populations by alleles at a modifier locus that controls the selfing rate. In most of the cases studied, the direction of selection on modifiers was consistent with that found in our previous deterministic calculations. However, there was some evidence that linkage between the modifier locus and the selected loci makes outcrossing less likely to evolve; more losses of alleles promoting outcrossing occurred in runs with linkage than in runs with free recombination. We also studied the fate of neutral alleles introduced into populations carrying detrimental mutations. The times to loss of neutral alleles introduced at low frequency were shorter than those predicted for alleles in the absence of selected loci, taking into account the reduction of the effective population size due to inbreeding. Previous studies have been confined to outbreeding populations, and to alleles at frequencies close to one-half, and have found an effect in the opposite direction. It therefore appears that associations between neutral and selected loci may produce effects that differ according to the initial frequencies of the neutral alleles.

Genetic Linkage↗
PubMed1994

Temporal trends in migration in the Aland Islands: effects of population size and geographic distance.

Using a model developed by Relethford (1992), we assess temporal trends (1750-1949) in marital migration in the Aland Islands, Finland, in relation to both geographic distance and population size. The 200-year time period was divided into four 50-year periods. For all time periods both geographic distance and population size are important determinants of migration among 15 Lutheran parishes. The geographic distance parameter of the model decreases significantly over time, and the population size parameter fluctuates slightly but shows no significant change over time. For all time periods migration is negative density dependent, indicating that there is greater relative flow from larger to smaller subdivisions. Even though both the geographic distance and population size parameters are statistically significant, the analysis suggests that geographic distance has a greater relative effect on migration than population size. There is a clear indication of isolate breakdown during the last two time periods (1850-1899 and 1900-1949). Residual analysis indicated that the smallest parish (Sottunga) was a major outlier that showed greater exogamy (less endemicity) than expected from the model.

Emigration and Immigration↗
PubMed2006

Genetics of recent habitat contraction and reduction in population size: does isolation by distance matter?

Fragmentation and loss of natural habitats are recognized as major threats to contemporary flora and fauna. Detecting past or current reductions in population size is therefore a major aim in conservation genetics. Statistical methods developed to this purpose have tended to ignore the effects of spatial population structure. However in many species, individual dispersal is restricted in space and fine-scale spatial structure such as isolation by distance (IBD) is commonly observed in continuous populations. Using a simulation-based approach, we investigated how comparative and single-point methods, traditionally used in a Wright-Fisher (WF) population context for detecting population size reduction, behave for IBD populations. We found that a complex 'quartet' of factors was acting that includes restricted dispersal, population size (i.e. habitat size), demographic history, and sampling scale. After habitat reduction, IBD populations were characterized by a stronger inertia in the loss of genetic diversity than WF populations. This inertia increases with the strength of IBD, and decreases when the sampling scale increases. Depending on the method used to detect a population size reduction, a local sampling can be more informative than a sample scaled to habitat size or vice versa. However, IBD structure led in numerous cases to incorrect inferences on population demographic history. The reanalysis of a real microsatellite data set of skink populations from fragmented and intact rainforest habitats confirmed most of our simulation results.

Alleles↗
PubMed1980

Genetic variability and effective population size when local extinction and recolonization of subpopulations are frequent.

If a population (species) consists of n haploid lines (subpopulations) which reproduce asexually and each of which is subject to random extinction and subsequent replacement, it is shown that, at equilibrium in which mutational production of new alleles and their random extinction balance each other, the genetic diversity (1 minus the sum of squares of allelic frequencies) is given by 2N(e)v/(1 + 2N(e)v), where [Formula: see text] in which N is the harmonic mean of the population size per line, n is the number of lines (assumed to be large), lambda is the rate of line extinction, and v is the mutation rate (assuming the infinite neutral allele model). In a diploid population (species) consisting of n colonies, if migration takes place between colonies at the rate m (the island model) in addition to extinction and recolonization of colonies, it is shown that effective population size is [Formula: see text] If the rate of colony extinction (lambda) is much larger than the migration rate of individuals, the effective population size is greatly reduced compared with the case in which no colony extinctions occur (in which case N(e) = nN). The stepping-stone type of recolonization scheme is also considered. Bearing of these results on the interpretation of the level of genetic variability at the enzyme level observed in natural populations is discussed from the standpoint of the neutral mutation-random drift hypothesis.

Journal Article↗
PubMed1992

Dynamic models of infectious diseases as regulators of population sizes.

Five SIRS epidemiological models for populations of varying size are considered. The incidences of infection are given by mass action terms involving the number of infectives and either the number of susceptibles or the fraction of the population which is susceptible. When the population dynamics are immigration and deaths, thresholds are found which determine whether the disease dies out or approaches an endemic equilibrium. When the population dynamics are unbalanced births and deaths proportional to the population size, thresholds are found which determine whether the disease dies out or remains endemic and whether the population declines to zero, remains finite or grows exponentially. In these models the persistence of the disease and disease-related deaths can reduce the asymptotic population size or change the asymptotic behavior from exponential growth to exponential decay or approach to an equilibrium population size.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Effects of insect population size on evolution of resistance to transgenic crops.

Models of the evolution of insect resistance to transgenic crops have often assumed that population size is infinite or that carrying capacity is fixed. To evaluate potential effects of population size on resistance evolution, we conducted sensitivity analyses by using a stochastic, spatially explicit model based partly on the interaction between pink bollworm and Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton. We examined interactions of carrying capacity, region size, dispersal, and percentage of fields planted with Bt cotton. The median and variance in the time to resistance decreased as region size increased, regardless of carrying capacity. This occurred because larger regions were more likely to have at least one field in which resistance evolved rapidly and served as a source from which resistance spread throughout the region. Carrying capacity significantly affected the median time to resistance with 75% of fields planted with Bt cotton, but not with 50% Bt cotton. In contrast, carrying capacity significantly influenced the variance in the time to resistance with 50% Bt cotton, but not with 75% Bt cotton. We also found resistance evolution was affected by interactions between carrying capacity, dispersal, and the percentage of fields planted with Bt cotton. The high variability observed in our simulations indicates that factors affecting stochastic events can play an important role in the evolution of resistance. Because population size determines the extent to which stochastic events are important, reasonable estimates of population size are essential for devising robust models of resistance evolution.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Test for a population expansion after a drastic reduction in population size using DNA sequence data.

Populations may, during their evolutionary history, go through drastic changes in population size due to bottlenecks or founder events upon colonization of new areas. This involves a subsample of haplotypes, causing the allele frequencies to be different from the original population. In addition, the period of recovery after a bottleneck can be of considerable length. If reproduction is unequal among individuals but random with regard to haplotype, large deviations from the patterns expected in a stable population may result. By means of computer simulation, I have analysed the patterns arising when populations undergo bottlenecks and then slowly recover, and used two new statistical tests for the detection of the bottleneck. A test based on the variance of the relative frequency of haplotypes had generally high power even at low sample size (n=25). This statistic was most powerful after very strong bottlenecks and lost power with increasing propagule size. A test based on the variance of the pairwise differences shows slightly less power. As expected, power was reduced when migration into the founder population was allowed from the source population. This suggests that the test is particularly suited for detecting relatively recent and strong bottlenecks, and thus may be a valuable tool for identifying population events on a fine temporal scale, such as colonisations after the last glaciation.

Analysis of Variance↗
PubMed1995

Divergence time and population size in the lineage leading to modern humans.

We have developed maximum likelihood (ML) methods for comparisons of nucleotide sequences from unlinked genomic regions. In the case of a single species, the ML method primarily estimates the effective population size (Ne) under both constant size and abrupt expansion conditions. In the case of two or three species, the ML method simultaneously estimates the species divergence time and the effective size of ancestral populations. This allows us to trace the evolutionary history of the human population over the past several million years (my). Available sequences at human autosomal loci indicate Ne = 10,000 in the Late Pleistocene, a figure concordant with the results obtained from mitochondrial DNA sequence and allele-frequency data analysis, and there is no indication of population expansion. The ML analysis of two species shows that humans diverged from chimpanzees 4.6 my ago and that the human and chimpanzee clade diverged from the gorilla 7.2 my ago. Furthermore, the effective population size of humans more than 4.6 my ago is nearly 10 times larger than Ne of modern humans. The effective population size in the human lineage does not seem to have remained constant over the past several million years. The ML model for three species predicts slightly different, but consistent results to those obtained by the two-species analysis.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Census vs. effective population size in chinook salmon: large- and small-scale environmental perturbation effects.

Population viability has often been assessed by census of reproducing adults. Recently this method has been called into question and estimation of the effective population size (Ne) proposed as a complementary method to determine population health. We examined genetic diversity in five populations of chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from the upper Fraser River watershed (British Columbia, Canada) at 11 microsatellite loci over 20 years using DNA extracted from archived scale samples. We tested for changes in genetic diversity, calculated the ratio of the number of alleles to the range in allele size to give the statistic M, calculated Ne from the temporal change in allele frequency, used the maximum likelihood method to calculate effective population size (NeM), calculated the harmonic mean of population size, and compared these statistics to annual census estimates. Over the last two decades population size has increased in all five populations of chinook examined; however, Ne calculated for each population was low (81-691) and decreasing over the time interval measured. Values of NeM were low, but substantially higher than Ne calculated using the temporal method. The calculated values for M were generally low (M < 0.70), indicating recent population reductions for all five populations. Large-scale historic barriers to migration and development activities do not appear to account for the low values of Ne; however, available spawning area is positively correlated with Ne. Both Ne and M estimates indicate that these populations are potentially susceptible to inbreeding effects and may lack the ability to respond adaptively to stochastic events. Our findings question the practice of relying exclusively on census estimates for interpreting population health and show the importance of determining genetic diversity within populations.

Animals↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Assessing homeless population size through the use of emergency and transitional shelter services in 1998: results from the analysis of administrative data from nine US jurisdictions.

OBJECTIVES: This study reports findings from the first-ever systematic enumeration of homeless population size using data previously collected from administrative records of homeless services providers in nine US jurisdictions over a one year period. As such, it provides the basis for establishing an ongoing measure of the parameters of the homeless population and for tracking related trends on the use of homeless services over time. METHODS: Each participating jurisdiction collected data through its homeless services management information systems for persons and families who use emergency shelter and transitional housing. The jurisdictions organized the data by a standardized reporting format. These data form the basis for reporting homeless population size, both in raw numbers and as adjusted for each jurisdiction's overall population size, as well as the rate of turnover and average annual length of stay in emergency shelters and transitional housing. RESULTS: Individual jurisdictions had annual rates of sheltered homelessness ranging from 0.1% to 2.1% of their overall population, and 1.3% to 10.2% of their poverty population. Annual population size was 2.5 to 10.2 times greater than the point-prevalent population size. Results are broken down for adults and families. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of homelessness varies greatly among the jurisdictions included in this study, and possible factors for this diversity are discussed. Future reports of this nature will furnish similar series of homeless enumerations across a growing number of jurisdictions, thereby providing a basis for exploring the effects of different contextual factors on local prevalence rates of homelessness.

Adult↗