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PubMed2002

Abnormal delay in recovery of pulse rate in 9454 patients referred for treadmill exercise test to Cleveland Clinic, 1990-1997--an independent predictor of excess mortality.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this article is to present results from the latest of 3 recent reports from the Cleveland Clinic on excess mortality associated with abnormal delay in the recovery of an elevated pulse rate produced in a treadmill exercise test. This is done in the context of a long-standing medical interest in this phenomenon and its prognostic significance (see Comment section). BACKGROUND: Delay in return of the pulse rate after exercise has long attracted medical interest as a potentially unfavorable prognostic factor. However, this has not become a factor in the interpretation of the treadmill exercise test. Cardiologist staff members of the Cleveland Clinic have recently studied the mortality predictive effect of delay in pulse recovery in 3 different cohorts of patients given a treadmill exercise test (modified Bruce protocol). The newest, largest and most complete of these studies is the source article for this report. STUDY DESIGN: This was an observational follow-up (FU) study with a median of 5.2 years (range 1.4-8.7 years). The patients were categorized as abnormal pulse recovery at 1 minute after peak exercise with decrease of only 12 beats per minute or less, and normal if >12 beats per minute. These classes were combined with dichotomous classes according to the exercise test result and with other associated risk factors. RESULTS: A good approximation of exposure was achieved for each of the 4 pulse recovery/exercise test groups. From numerical data in the article, it was possible to derive aggregate mean annual mortality rates for these groups and selected combinations of pulse recovery with other risk factors. Mortality was lowest (2.8 per 1000) in the group with pulse recovery and exercise test both normal (66% of the total patients screened), and this was used as the "expected" rate, without adjustment for any differences in age. On this basis the excess death rate (EDR) was about 7 per 1000 per year when either pulse recovery or exercise test was abnormal, and 28 per 1000 when both were abnormal. Similar levels of EDR were found in the combinations of pulse recovery with other risk factors. CONCLUSION: Abnormal pulse recovery after the treadmill exercise test is a powerful and independent predictor of significant excess mortality.

Exercise Test↗
PubMed2004

Excess mortality related to diabetes mellitus in elderly Medicare beneficiaries.

PURPOSE: To determine whether diabetes remains an important contributor to mortality among the elderly. METHODS: A 5% national sample of Medicare claims was utilized to create a retrospective cohort study. Participants were 148,562 persons with at least one hospitalization or two outpatient visits for diabetes in 1994, who were alive on January 1, 1995, were > or =65 years old, and were not in managed care in 1994; and 148,562 age, gender, and race matched controls without diabetes. Deaths were ascertained through 1999. Survival and proportional hazards analysis were used to calculate rates and relative risks. RESULTS: The mortality rate was 100.2/1000 person years (PY) among seniors with diabetes compared with 60.6/1000 PY without diabetes (age adjusted relative risk (RR)=1.83, 95% CI: 1.81-1.86). Non-white minorities had a similar RR associated with diabetes (Hispanic 2.37, Asian 1.95, Native American 2.38, blacks 1.64) as whites (1.86). The mortality risk associated with diabetes decreased with increasing age, but remained significantly elevated even among those aged 85 years and older. In contrast, the absolute excess mortality attributed to diabetes increased with age. CONCLUSION: The excess mortality associated with diabetes amongst all older ages suggests that greater attention to optimal diabetes treatment and prevention is needed.

Black or African American↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Psychiatric and characterological factors relevant to excess mortality in a long-term cohort of prostitute women.

We previously reported on the causes of death in a 30-year open cohort of 1,969 prostitute women. Excess mortality was mostly accounted for by homicide, suicide, drug and alcohol toxicity, and AIDS, with AIDS deaths occurring in prostitutes identified as injecting drug users. Presently, we examine observed mortality trends in light of the literature on personality and psychopathological characteristics reported for prostitute women, and with reports linking such personality characteristics to excess mortality. We observed consistency between the observed pattern of mortality in prostitute women and mortality that would be expected in a sample of persons at high risk for antisocial and borderline personality disorder.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1998

Excess mortality due to coronary artery disease after valve surgery. Secular trends in valvular regurgitation and effect of internal mammary artery bypass.

BACKGROUND: During the 1980s, mortality from coronary artery disease (CAD) decreased markedly in the United States. This raises the question of whether a parallel decrease occurred in excess mortality due to CAD in patients undergoing surgical correction of valvular regurgitation. METHODS AND RESULTS: Survival of 752 patients (age, 64 +/- 13 years) with isolated left-sided valvular regurgitation operated on from 1980 to 1991 was analyzed. Of 242 patients with CAD (stenosis > or = 70%), 208 had coronary artery bypass grafting. Multivariate analysis identified CAD as an independent predictor of operative mortality (odds ratio [OR] = 2.35, P = 0.012), overall (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.65, P < 0.0001) and late mortality (HR = 1.57, P = 0.0006), and postoperative congestive heart failure (HR = 2.35, P = 0.0001). Comparison of patients operated on in 1980 to 1985 with those operated on in 1986 to 1991, excess of operative, overall, and late mortality and postoperative congestive heart failure (adjusted for age and gender) related to associated CAD did not decrease significantly (P = 0.23, P = 0.64, P = 0.90, and P = 0.61, respectively). Overall survival was better for patients receiving an internal mammary artery graft than those receiving vein grafts only (HR = 0.57, P = 0.011). CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to the secular trend for decreased mortality from CAD, excess mortality related to associated CAD after surgery for valvular regurgitation has not decreased. Internal mammary artery grafts were associated with improved outcome. In patients with valvular regurgitations, these results support continued active search of associated CAD, wide use of internal mammary artery graft, and vigorous efforts for secondary prevention of complications of CAD.

Aged↗
PubMed1996

Winter excess mortality: a comparison between Norway and England plus Wales.

Seasonal fluctuations in mortality are associated with age, outdoor temperature, and influenza. The relative excess winter mortality is approximately twice as high in the UK compared with the Scandinavian countries. Using data from Norway and England plus Wales, this study compares the effect of age, temperature and influenza on winter excess mortality in the two countries. Bivariate analyses showed that the excess winter mortality (December-March) in England and Wales was nearly twice as high in old as in middle-aged people, and also markedly higher than in Norway, while the association between excess winter deaths and influenza was of a similar magnitude. In the British data only, a marked and statistically significant negative relationship existed between outdoor temperature and excess winter mortality, corresponding to an increase of approximately 3,500 deaths in England and Wales (approximately 2/10,000 in the population aged 45 years and over) per 1 degree C reduction in winter temperature, after adjustment for age and influenza. Using data from 20 Western European countries, a highly significant positive correlation (R = 0.71, p < 0.001) was found between total mortality rates for the elderly (65 years and over) and relative excess winter mortality.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1990

Excess mortality in Harlem.

In recent decades mortality rates have declined for both white and nonwhite Americans, but national averages obscure the extremely high mortality rates in many inner-city communities. Using data from the 1980 census and from death certificates in 1979, 1980, and 1981, we examined mortality rates in New York City's Central Harlem health district, where 96 percent of the inhabitants are black and 41 percent live below the poverty line. For Harlem, the age-adjusted rate of mortality from all causes was the highest in New York City, more than double that of U.S. whites and 50 percent higher than that of U.S. blacks. Almost all the excess mortality was among those less than 65 years old. With rates for the white population as the basis for comparison, the standardized (adjusted for age) mortality ratios (SMRs) for deaths under the age of 65 in Harlem were 2.91 for male residents and 2.70 for female residents. The highest ratios were for women 25 to 34 years old (SMR, 6.13) and men 35 to 44 years old (SMR, 5.98). The chief causes of this excess mortality were cardiovascular disease (23.5 percent of the excess deaths; SMR, 2.23), cirrhosis (17.9 percent; SMR, 10.5), homicide (14.9 percent; SMR, 14.2), and neoplasms (12.6 percent; SMR, 1.77). Survival analysis showed that black men in Harlem were less likely to reach the age of 65 than men in Bangladesh. Of the 353 health areas in New York, 54 (with a total population of 650,000) had mortality rates for persons under 65 years old that were at lest twice the expected rate. All but one of these areas of high mortality were predominantly black or Hispanic. We conclude that Harlem and probably other inner-city areas with largely black populations have extremely high mortality rates that justify special consideration analogous to that given to natural-disaster areas.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1993

Excess mortality among the unmarried: a case study of Japan.

Recent research has demonstrated that mortality patterns by marital status in Japan are different from corresponding patterns in other industrialized countries. Most notably, the magnitude of the excess mortality experienced by single Japanese has been staggering. For example, estimates of life expectancy for the mid-1900s indicate that single Japanese men and women had life expectancies between 15 and 20 years lower than their married counterparts. In addition, gender differences among single Japanese have been smaller than elsewhere, while those among divorced persons have been unanticipatedly large; and, the excess mortality of the Japanese single population has been decreasing over the past few decades in contrast to generally increasing differentials elsewhere. In this paper, we use a variety of data sources to explore several explanations for these unique mortality patterns in Japan. Undeniably, the traditional Japanese system of arranged marriages makes the process of selecting a spouse a significant factor. Evidence from anthropological studies and attitudinal surveys indicates that marriage is likely to have been and probably continues to be more selective with regard to underlying health characteristics in Japan than in other industrialized countries. However, causal explanations related to the importance of marriage and the family in Japanese society may also be responsible for the relatively high mortality experienced by singles and by divorced men.

Cause of Death↗
PubMed1981

A study of excess mortality during influenza epidemics in the United States, 1968-1976.

The effect of epidemics of influenza A on mortality in the United States was assessed by studying the monthly numbers of deaths during the years 1968-1976. Deaths from all causes at all ages and among persons aged 65 and over, and also deaths from acute respiratory diseases, and from cardiovascular causes were studied. Deaths from acute respiratory diseases were closely correlated with those from influenza and were taken to be an indication of the severity of influenza outbreaks. This indicator combined with a regression function expressing seasonal variation and secular trend was used to predict total mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and deaths among persons aged 65 and over. In each case the predictions proved to be reasonably close to the observed numbers of deaths. Excess mortality from all causes above that expected from seasonal variation occurred principally in three periods during the eight years of study: 1968-1969, 1972-1973, and 1975-1976, each of which coincided with an epidemic of influenza A of the H3N2 subtype. Similar excesses were seen among persons aged 65 and over and in cardiovascular deaths during the two earlier periods. It is concluded that excess mortality occurred during at least three of the major outbreaks of influenza during the period 1968-1976. This points to the need of studying the effectiveness of immunization in preventing the disease.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1999

The impact of surgical-site infections in the 1990s: attributable mortality, excess length of hospitalization, and extra costs.

OBJECTIVE: To determine mortality, morbidity, and costs attributable to surgical-site infections (SSIs) in the 1990s. DESIGN: A matched follow-up study of a cohort of patients with SSI, matched one-to-one with patients without SSI. SETTING: A 415-bed community hospital. STUDY POPULATION: 255 pairs of patients with and without SSI were matched on age, procedure, National Nosocomial Infection Surveillance System risk index, date of surgery, and surgeon. OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality, excess length of hospitalization, and extra direct costs attributable to SSI; relative risk for intensive care unit (ICU) admission and for readmission to the hospital. RESULTS: Of the 255 pairs, 20 infected patients (7.8%) and 9 uninfected patients (3.5%) died during the postoperative hospitalization (relative risk [RR], 2.2; 95% confidence interval [CI95], 1.1-4.5). Seventy-four infected patients (29%) and 46 uninfected patients (18%) required ICU admission (RR, 1.6; CI95, 1.3-2.0). The median length of hospitalization was 11 days for infected patients and 6 days for uninfected patients. The extra hospital stay attributable to SSI was 6.5 days (CI95, 5-8 days). The median direct costs of hospitalization were $7,531 for infected patients and $3,844 for uninfected patients. The excess direct costs attributable to SSI were $3,089 (CI95, $2,139-$4,163). Among the 229 pairs who survived the initial hospitalization, 94 infected patients (41%) and 17 uninfected patients (7%) required readmission to the hospital within 30 days of discharge (RR, 5.5; CI95, 4.0-7.7). When the second hospitalization was included, the total excess hospitalization and direct costs attributable to SSI were 12 days and $5,038, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In the 1990s, patients who develop SSI have longer and costlier hospitalizations than patients who do not develop such infections. They are twice as likely to die, 60% more likely to spend time in an ICU, and more than five times more likely to be readmitted to the hospital. Programs that reduce the incidence of SSI can substantially decrease morbidity and mortality and reduce the economic burden for patients and hospitals.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Excess mortality in incident cases of diabetes mellitus aged 15 to 34 years at diagnosis: a population-based study (DISS) in Sweden.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The objective of the study was to analyse the mortality, survival and cause of death patterns in incident cases of diabetes in the 15-34-year age group that were reported to the nationwide prospective Diabetes Incidence Study in Sweden (DISS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: During the study period 1983-1999, 6,771 incident cases were reported. Identification of deaths was made by linking the records to the nationwide Cause of Death Register. RESULTS: With an average follow-up of 8.5 years, resulting in 59,231 person-years, 159 deaths were identified. Diabetes was reported as the underlying cause of death in 51 patients (32%), and as a contributing cause of death in another 42 patients (26%). The standardised mortality ratio (SMR) was significantly elevated (RR=2.4; 95% CI: 2.0-2.8). The SMR was higher for patients classified by the reporting physician as having type 2 diabetes at diagnosis than for those classified as type 1 diabetic (2.9 and 1.8, respectively). Survival analysis showed significant differences in survival curves between males and females (p=0.0003) as well as between cases with different types of diabetes (p=0.005). This pattern was also reflected in the Cox regression model showing significantly increased hazard for males vs females (p=0.0002), and for type 2 vs type 1 (p=0.015) when controlling for age. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: This study shows a two-fold excess mortality in patients with type 1 diabetes and a three-fold excess mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. Thus, despite advances in treatment, diabetes still carries an increased mortality in young adults, even in a country with a good economic and educational patient status and easy access to health care.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2006

How emergency departments might alert for prehospital heat-related excess mortality?

INTRODUCTION: A major issue raised by the public health consequences of a heat wave is the difficulty of detecting its direct consequences on patient outcome, particularly because of the delay in obtaining definitive mortality results. Since emergency department (ED) activity reflects the global increase of patients' health problems during this period, the profile of patients referred to EDs might be a basis to detect an excess mortality in the catchment area. Our objective was to develop a real-time surveillance model based on ED data to detect excessive heat-related mortality as early as possible. METHODS: A day-to-day composite indicator was built using simple and easily obtainable variables related to patients referred to the ED during the 2003 heat-wave period. The design involved a derivation and validation study based on a real-time surveillance system of two EDs at Cochin Hospital and Hôtel-Dieu Hospital, Paris, France. The participants were 99,976 adult patients registered from 1 May to 30 September during 2001, 2002 and 2003. Among these participants, 3,297, 3,580 and 3,851 patients were referred to the EDs from 3 August to 19 August for 2001, 2002 and 2003, respectively. Variables retained for the indicator were selected using the receiver operating characteristic curve methodology and polynomial regression. RESULTS: The indicator was composed of only three variables: the percentage of patients older than 70 years, the percentage of patients with body temperature above 39 degrees C, and the percentage of patients admitted to or who died in the ED. The curve of the indicator with time appropriately fitted the overall mortality that occurred in the region of interest. CONCLUSION: A composite and simple index based on real-time surveillance was developed according to the profile of patients who visited the ED. It appeared suitable for determining the overall mortality in the corresponding region submitted to the 2003 heat wave. This index should help early warning of excessive mortality and monitoring the efficacy of public health interventions.

Adult↗
PubMed1997

Excess mortality attributable to hip fracture in white women aged 70 years and older.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to estimate the excess mortality attributable to hip fracture. METHODS: The 6-year survival rate of community-dwelling White female hip fracture patients aged 70 years and older entering one of seven hospitals from 1984 to 1986 (n = 578) was compared with that of White female respondents aged 70 years and older interviewed in 1984 for the Longitudinal Study on Aging (n = 3773). RESULTS: After age, education, comorbidity, and functional impairment were controlled, the mortality differential between the two groups accumulated to an excess among hip fracture patients of 9 deaths per 100 women 5 years postfracture. Among those with three or more functional impairments or one or more comorbidities, the excess was 7 deaths per 100: the effect of the fracture had disappeared in these groups by 4 years. In contrast, those with two or fewer impairments and those with no comorbidities had a continuing trend of increased mortality, with an excess of 14 deaths per 100 by 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: There is an immediate increase in mortality following a hip fracture in medically ill and functionally impaired patients, whereas among those with no comorbidities and few impairments, there is a gradual increase in mortality that continues for 5 years postfracture.

Aged↗
PubMed2006

Contribution of congestive heart failure and ischemic heart disease to excess mortality in rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Although mortality among patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is higher than in the general population, the relative contribution of comorbid diseases to this mortality difference is not known. This study was undertaken to evaluate the contribution of congestive heart failure (CHF) and ischemic heart disease (IHD), including myocardial infarction, to the excess mortality in patients with RA, compared with that in individuals without RA. METHODS: We assembled a population-based inception cohort of individuals living in Rochester, Minnesota, in whom RA (defined according to the criteria of the American College of Rheumatology [formerly, the American Rheumatism Association]) first developed between 1955 and 1995, and an age- and sex-matched non-RA cohort. All subjects were followed up until either death, migration from the county, or until 2001. Detailed information from the complete medical records was collected. Statistical analyses included the person-years method, cumulative incidence, and Cox regression modeling. Attributable risk analysis techniques were used to estimate the number of RA deaths that would be prevented if the incidence of CHF was the same in patients with RA and non-RA subjects. RESULTS: The study population included 603 patients with RA and 603 subjects without RA. During followup, there was an excess of 123 deaths among patients with RA (345 RA deaths occurred, although only 222 such deaths were expected). The mortality rates among patients with RA and non-RA subjects were 39.0 and 29.2 per 1,000 person-years, respectively. There was a significantly higher cumulative incidence of CHF (but not IHD) in patients with RA compared with non-RA subjects (37.1% versus 27.7% at 30 years of followup, respectively; P < 0.001). The risk of death associated with either CHF or IHD was not significantly different between patients with RA and non-RA subjects. If the risk of developing CHF was the same in patients with RA and individuals without RA, the overall mortality rate difference between RA and non-RA hypothetically would be reduced from 9.8 to 8.0 excess deaths per 1,000 person-years; that is, 16 (13%) of the 123 excess deaths could be prevented. CONCLUSION: CHF, rather than IHD, appears to be an important contributor to the excess overall mortality among patients with RA. CHF contributes to this excess mortality primarily through the increased incidence of CHF in RA, rather than increased mortality associated with CHF in patients with RA compared with non-RA subjects. Eliminating the excess risk of CHF in patients with RA could significantly improve their survival.

Arthritis, Rheumatoid↗
PubMedDate not supplied

The significance of coronary death for the excess mortality in alcohol-dependent men.

General and validated cause-specific mortality, especially regarding coronary disease, was studied in a population-based cohort of 1049 alcohol-dependent (DSM-III-R) men, who were discharged from a detoxification ward. The observed and expected numbers of deaths were 140 and 23.2, respectively (P < 0.001). The estimated risk quotient of death was 6.0 (95% confidence interval 5.1-7.1). The concordance between revised and official causes of death was approximately 50%, but the resulting variation of risk quotients of cause-specific deaths generally remained within the statistical uncertainty. Coronary disease contributed to 19% of the total excess mortality in cases with a validated definite death diagnosis. The risk of coronary death tended to be augmented during the first 2 years of discharge (P = 0.05). Thus, coronary death contributed significantly to the excess mortality in alcohol-dependent men, and an increased vulnerability for sudden coronary death seemed to persist for a considerable time after discharge from detoxification.

Adult↗
PubMed1990

Prevention of excess mortality in refugee and displaced populations in developing countries.

More than 30 million refugees and internally displaced persons in developing countries are currently dependent on international relief assistance for their survival. Most of this assistance is provided by Western nations such as the United States. Mortality rates in these populations during the acute phase of displacement have been extremely high, up to 60 times the expected rates. Displaced populations in northern Ethiopia (1985) and southern Sudan (1988) have suffered the highest crude mortality rates. Although mortality rates have risen in all age groups, excess mortality has been the greatest in 1- through 14-year-old children. The major causes of death have been measles, diarrheal diseases, acute respiratory tract infections, and malaria. Case-fatality ratios for these diseases have risen due to the prevalence of both protein-energy malnutrition and certain micronutrient deficiencies. Despite current technical knowledge and resources, several recent relief programs have failed to promptly implement essential public health programs such as provision of adequate food rations, clean water and sanitation, measles immunization, and control of communicable diseases. Basic structural changes in the way international agencies implement and coordinate assistance to displaced populations are urgently needed.

Africa↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Excess mortality caused by medical injury.

PURPOSE: We wanted to estimate excess risk of in-hospital mortality associated with medical injuries identified using an injury surveillance system, after controlling for risk of death resulting from comorbidities. METHODS: The Wisconsin Medical Injuries Prevention Program (WMIPP) screening criteria were used to identify medical injuries, defined as "any untoward harm associated with a therapeutic or diagnostic healthcare intervention," among discharge diagnoses for all 562,317 patients discharged from 134 acute care hospitals in Wisconsin in 2002. We then derived estimates for crude and adjusted relative risk of in-hospital mortality associated with the presence of a medical injury diagnosis. Logistic regression adjusted for baseline risk of mortality using a comorbidity index, age, sex, Diagnosis Related Groups, hospital characteristics, and clustering within hospital. RESULTS: There were 77,666 discharges that met WMIPP criteria for at least 1 medical injury (13.8%). Crude risk ratios for death ranged from 1.27 to 2.4 for those with medical injuries within 1 of 4 categories: drugs/biologics; devices, implants, and grafts; procedures; and radiation. After adjustment, estimates of excess mortality decreased, and significance persisted only for injuries related to procedures (39%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 28%-52%) and devices, implants, and grafts (16%; 95% CI, 3%-30%). CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of excess mortality that do not account for baseline mortality risk may be exaggerated. Findings have implications for the care family physicians provide in the hospital and for the advice they give their patients who are concerned about the risks of hospitalization.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1983

Excess mortality and morbidity associated with right bundle branch and left anterior fascicular block.

Excess mortality and morbidity associated with right bundle branch and left anterior fascicular block were evaluated in 108 patients with block (age 74 +/- 10 years, 69% male) and 108 age- and sex-matched control patients with normal conduction. Clinical characteristics were similar initially except for more congestive heart failure in patients with block. Life table analysis revealed a higher 12 year mortality with block, even after omitting patients with moderate or severe congestive heart failure (risk ratio 1.47, p less than 0.05). Compared with control subjects, the group of patients with block had more sudden death and deaths of unknown cause, but a similar number of noncardiac and diagnosed cardiac deaths. More patients with block developed new second and third degree atrioventricular block or new overt coronary artery disease, but this finding did not support prophylactic pacing in asymptomatic patients. The importance of internal controls in assessing the natural history of clinical and electrocardiographic abnormalities is emphasized.

Adult↗