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Comparison on Major Gene Mutations Related to Rifampicin and Isoniazid Resistance between Beijing and Non-Beijing Strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis: A Systematic Review and Bayesian Meta-Analysis.

Objective: The Beijing strain of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) is controversially presented as the predominant genotype and is more drug resistant to rifampicin and isoniazid compared to the non-Beijing strain. We aimed to compare the major gene mutations related to rifampicin and isoniazid drug resistance between Beijing and non-Beijing genotypes, and to extract the best evidence using the evidence-based methods for improving the service of TB control programs based on genetics of MTB. Method: Literature was searched in Google Scholar, PubMed and CNKI Database. Data analysis was conducted in R software. The conventional and Bayesian random-effects models were employed for meta-analysis, combining the examinations of publication bias and sensitivity. Results: Of the 8785 strains in the pooled studies, 5225 were identified as Beijing strains and 3560 as non-Beijing strains. The maximum and minimum strain sizes were 876 and 55, respectively. The mutations prevalence of rpoB, katG, inhA and oxyR-ahpC in Beijing strains was 52.40% (2738/5225), 57.88% (2781/4805), 12.75% (454/3562) and 6.26% (108/1724), respectively, and that in non-Beijing strains was 26.12% (930/3560), 28.65% (834/2911), 10.67% (157/1472) and 7.21% (33/458), separately. The pooled posterior value of OR for the mutations of rpoB was 2.72 ((95% confidence interval (CI): 1.90, 3.94) times higher in Beijing than in non-Beijing strains. That value for katG was 3.22 (95% CI: 2.12, 4.90) times. The estimate for inhA was 1.41 (95% CI: 0.97, 2.08) times higher in the non-Beijing than in Beijing strains. That for oxyR-ahpC was 1.46 (95% CI: 0.87, 2.48) times. The principal patterns of the variants for the mutations of the four genes were rpoB S531L, katG S315T, inhA-15C > T and oxyR-ahpC intergenic region. Conclusion: The mutations in rpoB and katG genes in Beijing are significantly more common than that in non-Beijing strains of MTB. We do not have sufficient evidence to support that the prevalence of mutations of inhA and oxyR-ahpC is higher in non-Beijing than in Beijing strains, which provides a reference basis for clinical medication selection.

Isoniazid

Navigating Sampling Bias in Discrete Phylogeographic Analysis: Assessing the Performance of an Adjusted Bayes Factor.

Bayesian phylogeographic inference is widely used in molecular epidemiological studies to reconstruct the dispersal history of pathogens. Discrete phylogeographic analysis treats geographic locations as discrete traits and infers lineage transition events among them, and is typically followed by a Bayes factor (BF) test to assess the statistical support. In the standard BF (BFstd) test, the relative abundance of the involved trait states is not considered, which can be problematic in the case of unbalanced sampling. Existing methods to correct sampling bias in discrete phylogeographic analyses using continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model, often require additional epidemiological information to balance the sampling effort among locations. As such data is not necessarily available, alternative approaches that rely solely on available genomic data are needed. In this perspective, we assess the performance of a modification of the BFstd, the adjusted Bayes factor (BFadj), which incorporates information on the relative abundance of samples by location when inferring support for transition events and root location inference without requiring additional data. Using a simulation framework, we assess the statistical performance of BFstd and BFadj under varying levels of sampling bias, estimating their type I and type II error rates. Our results show that BFadj complements the BFstd by reducing type I errors at the cost increasing type II errors for inferred transition events, while improving type I and type II errors in root location inference. Our findings provide guidelines for implementing the complementary BFadj to detect and mitigate sampling bias in discrete phylogeographic inference using CTMC modeling.

Bayes Theorem

Parallel algorithms for phylogenetic inference under a structured coalescent approximation.

While advances in molecular epidemiology and computational modeling have enhanced our capacity to track pathogen evolution, the accurate reconstruction of spatiotemporal transmission dynamics remains essential for developing epidemic preparedness frameworks and implementing outbreak response measures. Structured coalescent models offer a phylogeographic framework by restricting lineage coalescence events to geographically proximate host populations. Although the Bayesian structured coalescent approximation (BASTA) provides a tractable approach, contemporary phylogeographic analyses involving dozens of geographic localities and hundreds to thousands of viral genomes substantially exceed the computational capacity of existing implementations. The BASTA likelihood scales cubically with deme count and quadratically with sequence count due to matrix exponentiation and pairwise coalescent probability calculations. Here, we introduce a comprehensive algorithmic restructuring of the structured coalescent likelihood that eliminates redundancies, optimizes memory access, and exposes parallelization opportunities. Our approach reorganizes computations along three dimensions: (i) independent calculation of deme-transition probability matrices across time intervals; (ii) simultaneous evaluation of partial likelihood vectors within temporal slices; and (iii) concurrent aggregation of coalescent probabilities. Algorithmic restructuring cuts average coalescent likelihood computation by 7-8 fold, and parallelization further boosts performance to 10-26 fold, enabling joint phylogeographic analyses of dengue virus across 10 South American countries and H5N1 avian influenza across 20 Eurasian regions to finish in a fraction of prior time. This computational efficiency also enables comparison between backward-in-time structured coalescent approximations and forward-in-time phylogeographic methods, revealing that the former provides appropriately conservative posterior estimates, particularly at intermediate phylogenetic depths. We integrate our implementation into the popular BEAST X and BEAGLE software packages, with an accompanying interface in BEAUti X to easily set up the analyses, providing researchers with an accessible and scalable tool for real-time phylogeographic surveillance of rapidly evolving pathogens.

Journal Article