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PubMed2005

Cortisol levels and corticosteroid administration fail to predict mortality in critical illness: the confounding effects of organ dysfunction and sex.

BACKGROUND: Corticosteroid supplementation based on plasma cortisol measurement was reported to decrease mortality in vasopressor-dependent critical illness. HYPOTHESIS: Random levels or maximal increments of plasma cortisol measured after short adrenal stimulation may predict mortality independent of concurrent organ dysfunction or sex, and corticosteroid supplementation may decrease mortality in vasopressor-dependent critical illness. DESIGN: An observational descriptive study. PATIENTS: Critically ill patients receiving vasopressors for treatment of hemodynamic instability. METHODS: Random levels (n = 522 patients) and maximal increments (n = 282 patients) of plasma cortisol were measured after 250 microg of adrenocorticotropic hormone was administered for short stimulation tests before patients received corticosteroid supplementation. The severity of acute illness was measured by sequential organ failure assessment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Hospital mortality. RESULTS: The overall mortality was 24%. A random plasma cortisol level of 15 microg/dL or less was associated with lower mortality than a random plasma cortisol level greater than 15 microg/dL in men (12% vs 26%, respectively; P<.01) and women (13% vs 31%, respectively; P<.01). A maximal plasma cortisol increment of 9 microg/dL or less increased mortality as compared with an increment greater than 9 microg/dL in men (31% vs 11%, respectively; P<.01) but not in women (30% vs 29%, respectively; P = .8). Random levels and maximal increments of plasma cortisol did not influence hospital mortality predicted by the sequential organ failure assessment score. Corticosteroids were given to 244 patients (47%) without an effect on mortality (mortality rate of 27% for patients given corticosteroids vs mortality rate of 22% for patients who did not receive corticosteroids; P = .6). Corticosteroids did not influence mortality when plasma cortisol was a random level of 15 microg/dL or less (mortality rate of 14% for patients who received corticosteroids vs mortality rate of 10% for those who did not receive corticosteroids; P = .4) or when plasma cortisol was a maximal increment of 9 microg/dL or less (mortality rate of 30% for patients who received corticosteroids vs mortality rate of 31% for patients who did not receive corticosteroids; P = .9). CONCLUSIONS: Remote organ dysfunction and sex influenced mortality associated with cortisol levels measured in critical illness. Corticosteroid supplementation guided by arbitrary levels or increments of plasma cortisol in critical illness did not improve survival. Better guidelines for corticosteroid supplementation in critical illness should be developed to avoid potential adverse effects from unwarranted treatment.

Adrenal Cortex Hormones↗

PubMed2000

Operative mortality rates among surgeons: comparison of POSSUM and p-POSSUM scoring systems in gastrointestinal surgery.

PURPOSE: The original Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity and the more recent Portsmouth predictor equation for mortality scoring systems were developed to provide risk-adjusted mortality rates in general surgery. The aim of this study was to compare crude and risk-adjusted operative mortality rates among four surgeons using the above scoring systems and assess their applicability for patients scored retrospectively. METHODS: A total of 505 consecutive patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery were analyzed; 65 percent underwent colorectal, 27.5 percent underwent upper gastrointestinal, and 7.5 percent underwent small-bowel surgery. The observed:predicted mortality ratios using the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity and Portsmouth predictor equation for mortality scoring systems were calculated for each surgeon. RESULTS: The actual overall operative mortality rate was 11.1 percent (elective was 3.9 percent, and emergency was 25.1 percent). The Portsmouth predictor equation for mortality equation predicted a mortality rate of 11.3 percent (P = 0.51). However, the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity scoring system was found to overpredict death by a factor of two: 21.5 percent (P < 0.001). Mortality rates among the four surgeons varied from 7.6 to 14.7 percent but depended on the proportion of elective vs. emergency surgery. The observed:predicted ratio for Portsmouth predictor equation for mortality was close to unity (0.905-1.067) for all surgeons, but it was 0.45 to 0.56 for Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity. CONCLUSION: The Portsmouth predictor equation for mortality equation seems to be a more accurate predictor of mortality in gastrointestinal surgery. It would seem to provide the best choice for analyzing operative mortality rates for individual surgeons, taking into account variation in case mix and fitness of patients even when scored retrospectively. This has important implications for the future assessment of surgeons' clinical standards and the assessment of quality of surgical care.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1993

Trends in peptic ulcer mortality in Sydney from 1971 to 1987.

Gastric and duodenal ulcer (GU,DU) mortality in Western countries has varied over time by age and sex. Temporal variation raises the question of whether these ulcers have an environmental etiology. Using death certificate data, we investigated peptic ulcer mortality time trends from 1971 to 1987 in Sydney, Australia, and whether ulcer mortality and overall mortality in Sydney were similar with regard to time trends and associations with demographic and environmental factors. In men in all age groups and in women age < 65, GU and DU mortality decreased. In women age > or = 70, GU mortality remained constant and DU mortality increased. Average age at ulcer death increased: from 1971 to 1987, ulcer deaths at age > or = 70 rose from 52 to 80% of all ulcer deaths. In men who died at age 30-54, GU and DU mortality decreased relative to overall mortality. In women who died at age > or = 55, DU mortality increased relative to overall mortality. Compared with overall mortality, the ulcer mortality rate was affected more adversely by lower social class and lack of the marriage tie, and smoking rates tended to correlate more strongly with GU mortality. The greater-than-expected decrease in GU and DU mortality in younger men and the increase in DU mortality in elderly women suggest important changes in as yet unidentified environmental risk factors for ulcer mortality within the young adult male and elderly female general populations.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

[Colon and rectal cancer mortality in Brazilian capitals, 1980-1997].

BACKGROUND: In Brazil, colorectal tumors are among the five more important sites of neoplasms, for both sexes, in terms of mortality. The etiology of colon and rectal cancer is complex and some of the factors involved in its genesis are related to diet. Brazilian geographic regions present heterogeneous alimentary profiles, that could be influencing the distribution of the mortality rates for these tumors. OBJECTIVE: To describe the patterns of mortality from cancers of the colon and the rectum in Brazilian State capitals in the period 1980-1997. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Mortality data for individuals of both sexes, residents in Brazilian State capitals (except Palmas, Tocantins) was obtained from the Ministry of Health Mortality System (SIM/MS). We considered as death from colon and rectum cancers those whose underlying cause of death was coded as 153.0 to 153.9, 154.0 and 154.1, according to ICD 9, in the period 1980-95; C18.0 to C18.9, C19 and C20,according to ICD 10, in the period 1996-97. The trends of the standardized mortality rates from colon and rectum cancer were analyzed through linear regression models. RESULTS: The highest standardized mortality rates for colorectal cancer were observed in the South and Southeastern regions and varied between 8,0 and 10,7/100000 inhabitants. Porto Alegre (11,9), São Paulo (10,8) and Rio de Janeiro (9,6) presented the greatest rates among the State capitals in the study period. In the South region, rates of mortality for Porto Alegre and Florianópolis presented an increasing trend in the study period and the same behavior was observed for São Paulo and Vitória in the Southeastern region. Brasilia and the other capitals of the Midwest, with the exception of Goiânia, showed a tendency of increment of the mortality rates. Among the capitals of the North and Northeast regions, an increasing trend of mortality was observed in Rio Branco and Fortaleza. The separate analysis of the mortality rates for tumors of the colon and for tumors of the rectum showed a similar pattern, with higher values being observed for colon neoplasia. DISCUSSION: Regional differences in the mortality rates for colon and rectum neoplasias have been discussed for different authors, who point to the contribution of cultural and alimentary habits, and differences of life style and socioeconomic status to this heterogeneity, besides other aspects related to access to health services and quality of hospital care and preventive services. These factors must be considered in the evaluation of the differences observed in Brazilian capitals. Although the State capitals situated in South and Southeastern regions presented higher rates than the others, mortality rates of Porto Alegre (9,8/100.000) and Rio de Janeiro (9,0/100.000), in period 1983- 85, were about three times lower than those observed in the United States, Canada and France, in 1985. The sex distribution pattern of the mortality rates in Brazilian capitals was not uniform, with higher rates in men. We observed a trend of increment of the mortality rates of colorectal cancer in all Brazilian regions, similar to that was observed in some countries of the world, although with different gradients. CONCLUSIONS: The standardized mortality rates for colon and rectum neoplasias presented important regional differences among Brazilian State capitals. The highest rates were observed in the South and Southeastern regions. A trend of increment of the standardized mortality rates for cancers of the colon and the rectum was observed in all Brazilian regions in the period 1980-1997.

Adult↗

PubMed1998

An updated mortality study of workers at a petroleum refinery in Beaumont, Texas.

The mortality experience of 7,119 workers who were employed at a Beaumont, Texas, refinery for at least 1 year between 1945 and 1987 was investigated. Mortality analyses based on standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) showed overall mortality was significantly lower than expected compared with the U.S. general population (SMR = 82, 95% CI = 79-86). Total cancer mortality was also lower than expected (SMR = 92, 95% CI = 84-100). Significant mortality deficits from several malignant and nonmalignant diseases were reported. A significant mortality increase in the broad category of lymphatic and hematopoietic cancers was found (SMR = 133, 95% CI = 103-170). This increase was attributed to a nonsignificant elevation in leukemia of all cell types combined (SMR = 139, 95% CI = 92-201) and a borderline significant increase in other lymphatic tissue cancer (SMR = 158, 95% CI = 101-235). The elevation in leukemia was confined to workers hired before 1950. Furthermore, the leukemia excess was shown to have peaked during the 1960s, with mortality no longer elevated post-1980. Analyses of cell type-specific leukemias showed a similar temporal pattern for acute myeloid leukemia (AML) which was not significantly elevated (SMR = 136, 95% CI = 59-268). Mortality from other leukemia cell types was similar to or lower than expected. Mortality from non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) (SMR = 140, 95% CI = 88-211) and multiple myeloma (MM) (SMR = 121, 95% CI = 55-230) were increased, but neither was statistically significant nor likely to be related to refinery employment. No death from asbestosis was reported, and mortality from mesothelioma and pulmonary fibrosis was lower than expected. Lung cancer mortality for the overall cohort was similar to expected. For the overall cohort, analyses by duration of employment and time since first employment showed no evidence of any trends for increasing cause-specific mortality. Separate analyses of male workers employed in operator jobs showed mortality patterns that were more favorable than those of the total cohort. Maintenance craftworkers showed statistically significant elevations in mortality for prostate cancer (SMR = 145, 95% CI = 107-194), leukemia (SMR = 179, 95% CI = 111-273), and other lymphatic tissue cancer (SMR = 233, 95% CI = 138-368). Detailed analyses indicated that, among maintenance craftworkers, mortality was elevated for AML, NHL, and MM, but none was significant. Furthermore, no upward trend by duration of maintenance jobs was observed. A small increase of lung cancer was observed among maintenance craftworkers (SMR = 120, 95% CI = 99-145), which was borderline significant. No relationship between lung cancer and duration of maintenance employment was found. In contrast, a deficit of pulmonary fibrosis was reported among maintenance craftworkers (SMR = 62, 95% CI = 17-159). These findings are discussed in conjunction with results from other refinery studies, and the limitations of the study are discussed.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Minimal early mortality in CABG--simply a question of surgical quality?

BACKGROUND: The increasing number of risk scores and models for the evaluation of the early risk after cardiac surgery reflects the interest in 'calculating' the risk of adverse events. Different time intervals, but also different 'types' of death are generally accepted in the evaluation of early mortality. The aim of this study was to focus on the differences in the calculation of early mortality and to focus on their potentially misleading impact on risk stratification. METHODS: We investigated 7,436 patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting from June 30, 1988 through June 30, 2001. A follow-up was performed 180 days after operation (98.7 % complete). RESULTS: According to the definition of 30-day mortality to represent the total time interval between an intervention and the 30th postoperative day, the 30-day mortality was 5.92 % (n = 440 patients). Hospital mortality reflects the number of deaths from the day of intervention through the patient's individual discharge, independent of any fixed time interval. Hospital mortality was 5.86 % (n = 436 patients) in our patient group. 30-day hospital mortality requires the investigation of hospital mortality until the 30th postoperative day; in-hospital and general mortality after the 30th postoperative day remained excluded from the analysis; 30-day hospital mortality was 5.19 % (n = 386 patients). Assuming a maximum hospital stay of 5 days, hospital mortality would decrease to 2.64 % (n = 196 patients). CONCLUSIONS: 30-day mortality, hospital mortality and 30-day hospital mortality are used to determine early outcome. The present data indicate the vulnerability of non-standardized time intervals to discharge policy. However, both hospital mortality and 30-day hospital mortality are predominantly used in current risk scores and models. In view of the comparability and meaning of data, the methodology for the evaluation of early risk should be reconsidered.

Coronary Artery Bypass↗

PubMed2003

Widening socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in six Western European countries.

OBJECTIVES: During the past decades a widening of the relative gap in death rates between upper and lower socioeconomic groups has been reported for several European countries. Although differential mortality decline for cardiovascular diseases has been suggested as an important contributory factor, it is not known what its quantitative contribution was, and to what extent other causes of death have contributed to the widening gap in total mortality. METHODS: We collected data on mortality by educational level and occupational class among men and women from national longitudinal studies in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, England/Wales, and Italy (Turin), and analysed age-standardized death rates in two recent time periods (1981-1985 and 1991-1995), both total mortality and by cause of death. For simplicity, we report on inequalities in mortality between two broad socioeconomic groups (high and low educational level, non-manual and manual occupations). RESULTS: Relative inequalities in total mortality have increased in all six countries, but absolute differences in total mortality were fairly stable, with the exception of Finland where an increase occurred. In most countries, mortality from cardiovascular diseases declined proportionally faster in the upper socioeconomic groups. The exception is Italy (Turin) where the reverse occurred. In all countries with the exception of Italy (Turin), changes in cardiovascular disease mortality contributed about half of the widening relative gap for total mortality. Other causes also made important contributions to the widening gap in total mortality. For these causes, widening inequalities were sometimes due to increasing mortality rates in the lower socioeconomic groups. We found rising rates of mortality from lung cancer, breast cancer, respiratory disease, gastrointestinal disease, and injuries among men and/or women in lower socioeconomic groups in several countries. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in Western Europe critically depends upon speeding up mortality declines from cardiovascular diseases in lower socioeconomic groups, and countering mortality increases from several other causes of death in lower socioeconomic groups.

Adult↗

PubMed1999

Systemic sclerosis prevalence and mortality in Sydney 1974-88.

BACKGROUND: Systemic sclerosis prevalence and mortality estimates have demonstrated wide variability. The sole Australian study published to date demonstrated high prevalence rates when compared to overseas estimates. The prevalence and mortality findings reported in this paper derive from a larger study which addressed the distribution and determinants of systemic sclerosis within Sydney. AIMS: To determine systemic sclerosis prevalence and mortality rates within Sydney over 15 years, 1974-88. METHODS: Cases were ascertained from multiple sources including death certificates, hospitals, physicians, vascular surgeons' and dermatologists' private practices, a systemic sclerosis self-help group and private medical laboratories. RESULTS: Overall, 715 cases were identified. Females comprised 77% (95% CI: 74-80) of cases. Disease of the limited subtype accounted for 79% (95% CI: 76-82) of all systemic sclerosis, being relatively more frequent in living than deceased cases, and in females than males. Crude prevalence estimates appeared to rise between 1975 (4.52/100,000 95% CI:3.75-5.29/100,000) and 1988 (8.62/100,000 95% CI:7.64-9.60/100,000) as did estimates of diffuse disease. However, diffuse disease prevalence, when expressed as a proportion of total disease prevalence, showed no significant temporal change. Although crude mortality rates also showed apparent temporal increases (0.24/100,000 in 1975 to 0.80/100,000 in 1988) standardised mortality rates showed less convincing trends (0.41/100,000 in 1976 and 0.40/100,000 in 1988). Death certificate-derived mortality rates provided relatively large underestimates of total mortality. However, these underestimates were relatively constant over time. CONCLUSIONS: This study has demonstrated systemic sclerosis prevalence and mortality rates comparable to overseas estimates, consistently higher prevalence and mortality rates in females than males, proportionally higher rates of diffuse disease in males than females and in deceased cases than living cases, a diffuse: limited disease ratio apparently stable over time, apparently increasing temporal prevalence and mortality rates and, by implication, rising incidence rates. The observed temporal rise in diffuse disease prevalence and the absence of a convincing fall in diffuse disease mortality suggests a rising temporal incidence rate of diffuse disease. Standardised mortality rates demonstrated less consistent trends than did crude mortality rates and failed to demonstrate convincing declines in mortality subsequent to the introduction of ACE inhibitors for management of systemic sclerosis renal disease. Death certificate-derived systemic sclerosis mortality rates considerably and consistently underestimated systemic sclerosis-all cause mortality.

Data Collection↗

PubMed2005

Mortality of epilepsy in developed countries: a review.

Mortality in people with epilepsy has been studied in many different populations. In population-based incidence cohorts of epilepsy with 7-29 years follow-up, there was up to a threefold increase in mortality, compared to the general population (standardized mortality ratios [SMR] ranged from 1.6 to 3.0). When studies include selected epilepsy populations where patients with frequent and severe seizures are more common, the mortality is even greater. Relative survivorship (RS) following the diagnosis of epilepsy was 91%, 85%, and 83% after 5, 10, and 15 years, respectively. In a population with childhood-onset epilepsy, RS was 94% and 88% after 10 and 20 years. The level of increased mortality is affected by several factors. In idiopathic epilepsy where the causes of seizures are unknown, the results are conflicting. There was no significant increase in mortality in studies from Iceland, France, and Sweden, a barely increased risk in a study from the United Kingdom, and a significantly increased risk in a study from the United States. In contrast, all studies report a significant increased mortality in remote symptomatic epilepsy (standardized mortality ratios [SMRs] ranging from 2.2 to 6.5). The highest mortality is found in patients with epilepsy and neurodeficits present since birth, including mental retardation or cerebral palsy (SMRs ranging from 7 to 50). Mortality is also affected by age, with the highest SMRs in children, the combined effect of low mortality in the reference population, and high mortality in children with neurodeficits and epilepsy. The highest excess mortality is found in the elderly, > or =75 years. A pronounced increase in mortality is found during the first year following the onset of seizures due to underlying severe diseases. The increased mortality remains in different studies 2-14 years following diagnosis. Most of the factors responsible for the increased mortality are related to the underlying disorder causing epilepsy with pneumonia, cerebrovascular disease, and neoplastic disorders (risk remains elevated when primary brain tumors are excluded), as the most frequently recorded causes. The most common direct seizure-related cause of death in adolescents and young adults is sudden unexpected death, which is 24 times more common than in the general population.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2006

Computerized provider order entry implementation: no association with increased mortality rates in an intensive care unit.

OBJECTIVE: Our goal was to determine if there were any changes in risk-adjusted mortality after the implementation of a computerized provider order entry system in our PICU. METHODS: Study was undertaken in a tertiary care PICU with 20 beds and 1100 annual admissions. Demographic, admission source, primary diagnosis, crude mortality, and Pediatric Risk of Mortality III risk-adjusted mortality were abstracted retrospectively on all admissions from the PICUEs database for the period October 1, 2002, to December 31, 2004. This time period reflects the 13 months before and 13 months after computerized provider order entry implementation. Pediatric Risk of Mortality III mortality risk adjustment was used to determine standardized mortality ratios. RESULTS: During the study period, 2533 patients were admitted to the PICU, of which 284 were transported from another facility. The 13-month preimplementation mortality rate was 4.22%, and the 13-month postimplementation mortality rate was 3.46%, representing a nonsignificant reduction in the risk of mortality in the postimplementation period. The standardized mortality ratio was 0.98 vs 0.77, respectively, and the mortality rate for the transported patients was 9.6% vs 6.29%. This yields a nonsignificant mortality risk reduction in the postimplementation period. The standardized mortality ratio was 1.10 preimplementation versus 0.70 postimplementation. Analysis of the 13-month preimplementation versus 5-month postimplementation periods showed a non-statistically significant trend in reduction of mortality for all PICU patients and for transported patients. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of a computerized provider order entry system, even in the early months after implementation, was not associated with an increase in mortality. Our experience suggests that careful design, build, implementation, and support can mitigate the risk of implementing new technology even in an ICU setting.

Child↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Use of the logistic organ dysfunction system to study mortality in an Indian intensive care unit.

BACKGROUND: Mortality in Indian intensive care units has not been well studied. Scoring systems are used to predict mortality of patients admitted to such units. Some scoring systems predict hospital mortality while others predict mortality in intensive care units. We used the logistic organ dysfunction system to study the hospital and intensive care unit mortalities in our intensive care unit. METHODS: We prospectively studied 527 consecutively admitted patients in 1997 to the medical intensive care unit in St John's Medical College Hospital, Bangalore. The outcomes studied were death in hospital and death in the intensive care unit. Using standardized mortality ratios, we compared our observed hospital and intensive care unit mortalities with the hospital mortality predicted by the logistic organ dysfunction system. RESULTS: The standardized mortality ratios for hospital deaths was 1.3 with a confidence interval of 1.17-1.49 and for intensive care unit deaths it was 1.0 with a confidence interval of 0.89-1.18. The hospital mortality rates in our setting are significantly higher (p < 0.05) than the predicted hospital mortality rates of the published western model for intensive care unit patients. The intensive care unit mortality rates are not significantly different from the predicted hospital mortality rates of the published western model for intensive care unit patients. CONCLUSION: Our intensive care unit mortality rate is comparable to the western hospital mortality rate. However, after transfer of patients out of the unit, the hospital mortality is higher.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2004

Decades of disparity: widening ethnic mortality gaps from 1980 to 1999.

BACKGROUND: Maori and Pacific deaths were severely undercounted in the mid-1980s and first half of 1990s, resulting in numerator-denominator bias when calculating mortality rates by ethnicity. We used the New Zealand Census-Mortality Study to adjust for this bias and calculate corrected ethnic-specific mortality rates from 1980 to 1999. METHODS: Age-specific adjusters were calculated for the period 1980-99. They were applied to mortality data to obtain a corrected number of deaths. Mortality rates (by age and gender) were calculated by dividing the total number of adjusted deaths by the respective census counts. RESULTS: Contrary to unadjusted rates, corrected Maori and Pacific mortality rates were clearly higher than non- Maori non-Pacific rates during the 1980s and early 1990s. From 1980-84 (1361 per 100,000 for males and 965 per 100,000 for females) to 1996-99 (1258 and 894), there was only a modest decrease in Maori 1 to 74 year old mortality rates. Pacific mortality rates changed little from 1980-84 (1264 and 672) to 1996-99 (1144 and 696 per 100,000 for males and females respectively). Non-Maori non-Pacific mortality rates, however, decreased by about 30% from 1980-84 (919 and 553) to 1996-99 (641 and 407 per 100,000 for males and females, respectively). Cancer (lung, prostate, breast, colorectal) mortality rates tended to increase over time among Maori compared to steadily decreasing among non-Maori non-Pacific. Of note, Pacific colorectal cancer mortality rates have increased by about ten-fold during the 1980s and 1990s. All ethnic groups experienced falls in cardiovascular disease mortality rates, but the decreases were much greater among non-Maori non-Pacific. CONCLUSION: The gaps between Maori and non-Maori non-Pacific mortality widened over the 1980s and 1990s mainly due to steadily declining non-Maori non-Pacific mortality rates and stagnant Maori mortality rates. Likewise, the gaps between Pacific and non-Maori non-Pacific mortality also widened during that period.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1994

The impact of HIV-1 infection on mortality in children under 5 years of age in sub-Saharan Africa: a demographic and epidemiologic analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effects of the HIV-1 epidemic on mortality in children under 5 years of age in urban and rural populations in eastern and central, and southern Africa. METHODS: A lifetable method that allows for the effects of competing causes (i.e., mortality due to HIV and other causes) was used to estimate mortality. Our calculations used published and unpublished data on HIV-1 infection in African adults and children (incidence and prevalence, vertical transmissions, transmission by blood transfusion and natural history), and typical baseline fertility and child mortality data. The results were applied to model rural and urban populations to explore the effects of parameters such as mortality in HIV-1-infected children, fertility in infected mothers and overall population growth. RESULTS: We estimate that child mortality will rise substantially because of the prevalence of HIV-1 in urban areas. There will be little difference in the absolute levels of increase in mortality between areas in eastern and central, and southern Africa with similar levels of HIV infection; however, in relative terms the effect will be more noticeable in southern Africa because of the lower baseline mortality. Towns with severe epidemics (30% adult seroprevalence) might experience a rise in child mortality of one-third in eastern and central Africa and three-quarters in southern Africa. This will cancel or reverse existing advantages in urban over rural levels of child mortality and this effect will be more pronounced in southern Africa. The exact impact of HIV-1 will vary according to mortality among HIV-1-infected children and to fertility among infected women. However, changes in age structure and population growth have relatively little impact on mortality. CONCLUSIONS: There are likely to be substantial increases in child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa as a result of HIV-1 infection. The main determinant of childhood infection is the scale of the epidemic among adults. Increases in mortality will depend on local adult seroprevalence but are hard to predict precisely because of possible variation in death rates among HIV-1-infected children. In rural areas with low seroprevalence other diseases will remain the main cause of mortality. However, in urban areas families and health services will have to face considerably increased demands from ill and dying children.

Adolescent↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Mortality rates by stage-at-diagnosis.

Mortality rates by stage-at-diagnosis are not possible from usual mortality data. Normally, mortality data are based solely on information provided on death certificates, and stage-at-diagnosis is not generally reported on these documents. However, mortality rates by stage are possible when one can link diagnostic data with mortality data. Population-based cancer registries collect these types of data routinely in determining the survival of cancers in their registry. Thus, using cancer registry data, mortality rates by stage-at-diagnosis can be calculated. We report stage-specific mortality rates for the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, representing 10% of the cancers in the U.S. for the four sites with the largest mortality rates for females and for males. For an individual site, the stage-specific mortality rates allow one to determine how the different stages are contributing to the trends in all stage mortality. For example, distant disease mortality is the largest contributor to all stage cancer mortality for female and male lung cancer, female colorectal cancer, ovarian cancer, prostatic cancer and male pancreatic cancer. In contrast, regional disease mortality is the largest contributor to all stage cancer mortality for breast cancer and male colorectal cancer. In addition, localized disease mortality is the second largest contributor to all stage mortality for breast cancer and prostate cancer.

Breast Neoplasms↗

PubMed1996

Use of predicted risk of mortality to evaluate the efficacy of anticytokine therapy in sepsis. The rhIL-1ra Phase III Sepsis Syndrome Study Group.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate a novel anticytokine therapy in patients with sepsis syndrome, and the relationship between a patient's baseline mortality risk and survival benefit. DESIGN: Data from a recent phase III, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicenter clinical trial with patients randomized to three treatment arms: an intravenous loading dose of recombinant human interleukin-1-receptor antagonist (rhIL-1ra) or placebo, followed by a continuous infusion of rhIL-1ra (1.0 mg/kg/hr, or 2.0 mg/kg/hr), or placebo for 72 hrs. SETTING: Sixty-three investigative centers in eight countries. PATIENTS: The study population consisted of 893 patients: 302 placebo patients; 298 patients treated with 1.0 mg/kg/hr of rhIL-1ra; and 293 patients treated with 2.0 mg/kg/hr of rhIL-1ra. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: An independent, sepsis-specific, log-normal regression model that predicts the risk of mortality over 28 days was applied to all patients enrolled into the rhIL-1ra sepsis study. The ability of the Predicted Risk of Mortality model to predict 28-day mortality in the placebo patients was determined and the relationship between mortality risk and efficacy of rhIL-1ra was investigated. The trial data were also analyzed using two other risk-assessment models for comparison with Predicted Risk of Mortality. A significant increase in survival time was demonstrated for all patients treated with rhIL-1ra (n = 893, p < .02 Predicted Risk of Mortality log-normal), but patients with a Predicted Risk of Mortality of < 24% derived little benefit. Retrospective examination of time-to-death data demonstrated that rhIL-1ra reduced risk of death in the first 2 days for patients with > or = 24% Predicted Risk of Mortality (n = 580, p < .005 Predicted Risk of Mortality log-normal). This same effect was not present in patients with a Predicted Risk of Mortality of < 24% on entry into the study. The Predicted Risk of Mortality model predicted a 28-day mortality rate of 35% for placebo patients compared with 34% observed and accurately stratified patients along the full range of risks. There was a wide distribution of individual patient risks for 28-day mortality for all patients, as well as within categorical subgroups, such as shock and organ system dysfunction. Two alternate risk models were assessed and the Acute Physiology Score of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III also demonstrated a statistically significant survival benefit for rhIL-1ra (p = .04 Predicted Risk of Mortality log-normal) for all patients treated. CONCLUSIONS: Using an appropriate analytic model, a statistically significant increase in survival time from rhIL-1ra was measured. A direct relationship was found between a patient's Predicted Risk of Mortality at study entry to efficacy of rhIL-1ra. Individual risk or severity assessment may be a useful tool for evaluating the clinical benefit of new therapeutic approaches to sepsis and for monitoring outcomes at the bedside.

APACHE↗

PubMed2006

Green tea consumption and mortality due to cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all causes in Japan: the Ohsaki study.

CONTEXT: Green tea polyphenols have been extensively studied as cardiovascular disease and cancer chemopreventive agents in vitro and in animal studies. However, the effects of green tea consumption in humans remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations between green tea consumption and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The Ohsaki National Health Insurance Cohort Study, a population-based, prospective cohort study initiated in 1994 among 40,530 Japanese adults aged 40 to 79 years without history of stroke, coronary heart disease, or cancer at baseline. Participants were followed up for up to 11 years (1995-2005) for all-cause mortality and for up to 7 years (1995-2001) for cause-specific mortality. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality due to cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all causes. RESULTS: Over 11 years of follow-up (follow-up rate, 86.1%), 4209 participants died, and over 7 years of follow-up (follow-up rate, 89.6%), 892 participants died of cardiovascular disease and 1134 participants died of cancer. Green tea consumption was inversely associated with mortality due to all causes and due to cardiovascular disease. The inverse association with all-cause mortality was stronger in women (P = .03 for interaction with sex). In men, the multivariate hazard ratios of mortality due to all causes associated with different green tea consumption frequencies were 1.00 (reference) for less than 1 cup/d, 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83-1.05) for 1 to 2 cups/d, 0.95 (95% CI, 0.85-1.06) for 3 to 4 cups/d, and 0.88 (95% CI, 0.79-0.98) for 5 or more cups/d, respectively (P = .03 for trend). The corresponding data for women were 1.00, 0.98 (95% CI, 0.84-1.15), 0.82 (95% CI, 0.70-0.95), and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.67-0.89), respectively (P<.001 for trend). The inverse association with cardiovascular disease mortality was stronger than that with all-cause mortality. This inverse association was also stronger in women (P = .08 for interaction with sex). In women, the multivariate hazard ratios of cardiovascular disease mortality across increasing green tea consumption categories were 1.00, 0.84 (95% CI, 0.63-1.12), 0.69 (95% CI, 0.52-0.93), and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.53-0.90), respectively (P = .004 for trend). Among the types of cardiovascular disease mortality, the strongest inverse association was observed for stroke mortality. In contrast, the hazard ratios of cancer mortality were not significantly different from 1.00 in all green tea categories compared with the lowest-consumption category. CONCLUSION: Green tea consumption is associated with reduced mortality due to all causes and due to cardiovascular disease but not with reduced mortality due to cancer.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Relationship between Medicare's hospital compare performance measures and mortality rates.

CONTEXT: In response to concerns about the quality of care in US hospitals, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services began measuring hospital performance and reporting this performance on their Web site, Hospital Compare. It is unknown whether these process performance measures are related to hospital-level outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether quality measured with the process measures used in Hospital Compare are correlated with and predictive of hospitals' risk-adjusted mortality rates. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Cross-sectional study of hospital care between January 1 and December 31, 2004, for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and pneumonia at acute care hospitals in the United States included on the Hospital Compare Web site. Ten process performance measures included in Hospital Compare were compared with hospital risk-adjusted mortality rates, which were measured using Medicare Part A claims data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Condition-specific inpatient, 30-day, and 1-year risk-adjusted mortality rates. RESULTS: A total of 3657 acute care hospitals were included in the study based on their performance as reported in Hospital Compare. Across all acute myocardial infarction performance measures, the absolute reduction in risk-adjusted mortality rates between hospitals performing in the 25th percentile vs those performing in the 75th percentile was 0.005 for inpatient mortality, 0.006 for 30-day mortality, and 0.012 for 1-year mortality (P<.001 for each comparison). For the heart failure performance measures, the absolute mortality reduction was smaller, ranging from 0.001 for inpatient mortality (P = .03) to 0.002 for 1-year mortality (P = .08). For the pneumonia performance measures, the absolute reduction in mortality ranged from 0.001 for 30-day mortality (P = .05) to 0.005 for inpatient mortality (P<.001). Differences in mortality rates for hospitals performing in the 75th percentile on all measures within a condition vs those performing lower than the 25th percentile on all reported measures for acute myocardial infarction ranged between 0.008 (P = .06) and 0.018 (P = .008). For pneumonia, the effects ranged between 0.003 (P = .09) and 0.014 (P<.001); for heart failure, the effects ranged between -0.013 (P = .06) and -0.038 (P = .45). CONCLUSIONS: Hospital performance measures predict small differences in hospital risk-adjusted mortality rates. Efforts should be made to develop performance measures that are tightly linked to patient outcomes.

Benchmarking↗

PubMed2001

Mortality during winter smog episodes 1982, 1985, 1987 and 1993 in the Czech Republic.

OBJECTIVES: Severe air pollution episodes were recorded during the 1980s and early 1990s in the Czech Republic as a result of widespread combustion of brown coal. A population-based retrospective study investigated the relationship between air pollution and daily mortality in six highly polluted areas of the Czech Republic during smog episodes in 1982, 1985, 1987, and 1993. METHODS: Total daily mortality, mortality by gender and age, cardiovascular mortality, respiratory mortality, data on weekly incidence of acute respiratory diseases and daily mean concentrations of sulphur dioxide and suspended particulate matter were used in the model. The effects of smog on daily mortality were estimated by multiple linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Significant increases in mortality were observed for the 1982 and 1987 episodes (6% and 9%). In 1982, mortality was significantly associated with mean concentration of sulphur dioxide (SO2) of the current and the preceding days and with the 4-day moving average. In the 1985 episode a significant increase in respiratory mortality in men and in both genders together, lagging by 2 and 3 days, was detected. During the 1987 episode significant associations of total daily mortality, mortality in persons over 65 years of age and mortality from cardiovascular or respiratory diseases with 4-day moving average of both pollutants were found. For the 1993 episode a significant association between mortality in women under 65, lagging by 3 days, and mean concentration of suspended particulate matter (SPM) was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the results are consistent with other studies aimed at episodic air pollution during the 1950s and 1960s in Western Europe and the USA, in which outdoor air pollution was shown to be a significant predictor of mortality. However, non-significant or opposite associations between air pollution and mortality indicate that other factors may also play an important role. A stronger effect on men under 65 years of age, suggested by a previous Czech study was not confirmed.

Czech Republic↗