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PubMed1997

[The effects of judge's roles on probability judgment].

A number of studies on probability judgment have reported that people often tend to neglect the base-rate in the Cab Problem (Bar-Hillel, 1980). To explain the base-rate neglect, the present research hypothesized that subjects presented with the Cab Problem focused on the case information in the problem, because the subjects were asked to estimate probability based on that particular case. In 'two experiments, subjects' individuated or general interpretation of the Cab Problem was manipulated by instructing the subjects to play either responsible or neutral judge's role, respectively. The results suggested that in the responsible judge condition the case information had large impact on subjects' judgment, whereas in the neutral judge condition it did not. These results implied that the subject's base-rate neglect arose from taking the individuated interpretation.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

[Crossmodal attention between vision and touch in temporal order judgment task].

Four experiments investigated the effects of cross-modal attention between vision and touch in temporal order judgment tasks combined with spatial cueing paradigm. In Experiment 1, two vibrotactile stimuli with simultaneous or successive onsets were presented bimanually to the left and right index fingers and participants were asked to judge the temporal order of the two stimuli. The tactile stimuli were preceded by a spatially uninformative visual cue. Results indicated that shift of spatial attention yielded by visual cueing resulted in the modulation of accuracy of the subsequent tactile temporal order judgment. However, this cueing effect disappeared when participants judged simultaneity of the two stimuli, instead of their temporal order (Experiment 2) or when the cue lead time between the visual cue and the stimuli was relatively long (Experiment 3). Experiment 4 replicated an effect of crossmodal attention on the direction of visual illusory line motion induced by a somatosensory cue (Shimojo, Miyauchi, & Hikosaka, 1997). These results demonstrate that substantial crossmodal links exist between vision and touch for covert exogenous orienting of attention.

Adult↗
PubMed1991

Substituted judgment: how accurate are proxy predictions?

Substituted judgment has been proposed as a method of promoting the autonomy of the mentally incapacitated patient, but little is known about the accuracy of surrogate decision makers in reflecting the true wishes of patients. In this study, surrogate decision makers' views (those of primary care providers and close family members) were compared with the decisions of currently competent chronically ill elderly patients, using a hypothetic cardiopulmonary resuscitation scenario under circumstances of current health and progressive dementia. Concordance between patients and their surrogates was evaluated by assessing percent agreement, kappa coefficient (for concordance beyond chance), and directionality of discrepant responses. Most patient respondents chose to be resuscitated in both scenarios. Although patients predicted that both their physicians (90%) and family members (87%) would accurately represent their wishes, neither family members nor physicians, in fact, were able to adequately predict patients' wishes in both scenarios (kappa less than or equal to 0.3 in all scenarios; percent agreement range, 59% to 88%). Few patients had ever discussed their resuscitation preferences with either their family member (16%) or their physician (7%). These results cast doubt on the usefulness of a strict substituted judgment standard as an approach to medical decision making for patients with diminished mental capacity.

Aged↗
PubMed1994

"Clinical Judgment" revisited: the distraction of quantitative models.

More than 25 years ago, in a book called Clinical Judgment, each act of patient care was described as having an experimental structure. The "experiments" needed substantial scientific improvement, however, in quality of basic data, taxonomic classification of phenomena, and specifications of clinical reasoning. During the past 2 decades, these improvements have not occurred as extensively as expected because many investigators working in clinical forms of clinical research have not addressed these basic scientific challenges in data, taxonomy, and reasoning. Instead, the investigators have applied quantitative "models," derived from non-clinical domains, that focus on hard data, randomized trials, Bayes theorem, quantitative decision analysis, and psychometric strategies for clinimetric measurement. Consequently, the main challenges of clinical judgment still remain generally available for basic scientific research by investigative clinicians.

Clinical Competence↗
PubMedDate not supplied

The process of clinical judgment in nursing practice: the component of personality.

An exploratory study of the relationship of personality in the process of clinical judgment in nursing practice pointed out that changes in the profession--the extended role of nurses and the increasing number of men and older women who enter nursing--necessitate reexamination of the nurses' personality profile, development of a device to measure "successful'' and "effective'' clinical judgment, and evaluation of the effect of personality on nursing process.

Adult↗
PubMed2000

From objects to quantities: developments in preschool children's judgments about aggregate amount.

The impact of object boundaries on children's developing quantitative reasoning was examined in a study of children's judgments about aggregate amount. Children at ages 3, 4, and 5 years were asked to help a Cookie Monster get as much to eat as possible by choosing between alternative collections that differed in the number and size of the cookies they contained and also in aggregate amount. Results indicated that children were heavily influenced by the size of individual cookies at 3 years of age but were generally unsuccessful in aggregating size information across multiple cookies until 5 years. The contrast between children's sensitivity to object sizes from an early age and the relatively late achievement of accurate judgments of aggregate amount underscores the significance for quantitative development of the distinction between discrete objects and mathematical quantities.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2001

Seeds of wisdom: adolescents' knowledge and judgment about difficult life problems.

The present study examined adolescents' wisdom-related knowledge and judgment with a heterogeneous sample of 146 adolescents (ages 14-20 years) and a comparison sample of 58 young adults (ages 21-37 years). Participants responded to difficult and ill-defined life dilemmas; expert raters evaluated these responses along 5 wisdom criteria. Our findings confirmed that in contrast to adulthood, adolescence is a major period for normative age-graded development in knowledge about difficult life problems. Adolescents performed at lower levels than young adults but also demonstrated substantial age increments in performance. As expected, adolescents' performance varied as a function of criterion and gender. These results hold implications for research on adolescent development and for the development of wisdom-related knowledge and judgment.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2001

Coherent probability from incoherent judgment.

People often have knowledge about the chances of events but are unable to express their knowledge in the form of coherent probabilities. This study proposed to correct incoherent judgment via an optimization procedure that seeks the (coherent) probability distribution nearest to a judge's estimates of chance. This method was applied to the chances of simple and complex meteorological events, as estimated by college undergraduates. No judge responded coherently, but the optimization method found close (coherent) approximations to their estimates. Moreover, the approximations were reliably more accurate than the original estimates, as measured by the quadratic scoring rule. Methods for correcting incoherence facilitate the analysis of expected utility and allow human judgment to be more easily exploited in the construction of expert systems.

Adult↗
PubMed1975

Feedback as a source of information and as a source of noise in absolute judgments of loudness.

Two experiments investigated the effects of feedback on absolute judgements of loudness. In Experiment 1, subjects received aceurate, unreliable, or no feedback. While feedback improved the information transmitted in judgments, it gave lower d' values than no feedback. These results were not compatible with a signal detection model with a noisy sensory stage and a decision stage with a fixed criterion, but suggested that criteria move in response to feedback and thus contribute judgmental noise to perceptual processes. Further confirmation for a variable criterion was obtained in Experiment 2, where reliability of feedback was held constant, but feedback was biased to favor some response alternatives more than others. Biased feedback shifted the positions of criteria, but also increased the inertia of some criteria in responding to feedback which caused changes in d'.

Auditory Perception↗
PubMed2002

Episodic and semantic knowledge in emotional self-report: evidence for two judgment processes.

Three studies involving 3 participant samples (Ns = 39, 55, and 53) tested the hypothesis that people retrieve episodic emotion knowledge when reporting on their emotions over short (e.g., last few hours) time frames, but that they retrieve semantic emotion knowledge when reporting on their emotions over long (e.g., last few months) time frames. Support for 2 distinct judgment strategies was based on judgment latencies (Studies 1 and 2) and priming paradigms (Studies 2 and 3). The authors suggest that self-reports of emotion over short versus long time frames assess qualitatively different sources of self-knowledge.

Adult↗
PubMed2002

Flexible use of recent information in causal and predictive judgments.

Associative and statistical theories of causal and predictive learning make opposite predictions for situations in which the most recent information contradicts the information provided by older trials (e.g., acquisition followed by extinction). Associative theories predict that people will rely on the most recent information to best adapt their behavior to the changing environment. Statistical theories predict that people will integrate what they have learned in the two phases. The results of this study showed one or the other effect as a function of response mode (trial by trial vs. global), type of question (contiguity, causality, or predictiveness), and postacquisition instructions. That is, participants are able to give either an integrative judgment, or a judgment that relies on recent information as a function of test demands. The authors concluded that any model must allow for flexible use of information once it has been acquired.

Association Learning↗
PubMed2002

Neural correlates of recency judgment.

The prefrontal cortex plays a critical role in recollecting the temporal context of past events. The present study used event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and explored the neural correlates of temporal-order retrieval during a recency judgment paradigm. In this paradigm, after study of a list of words presented sequentially, subjects were presented with two of the studied words simultaneously and were asked which of the two words was studied more recently. Two types of such retrieval trials with varied (high and low) levels of demand for temporal-order retrieval were intermixed and compared using event-related fMRI. The intraparadigm comparison of high versus low demand trials revealed brain regions with activation that was modulated on the basis of demand for temporal-order retrieval. Multiple lateral prefrontal regions including the middle and inferior lateral prefrontal cortex were prominently activated. Activation was also observed in the anterior prefrontal cortex and the medial temporal cortex, regions well documented to be related to memory retrieval in general. The modulation of brain activity in these regions suggests a detailed pathway that is engaged during recency judgment.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

An associative framework for probability judgment: an application to biases.

Three experiments show that understanding of biases in probability judgment can be improved by extending the application of the associative-learning framework. In Experiment 1, the authors used M. A. Gluck and G. H. Bower's (1988a) diagnostic-learning task to replicate apparent base-rate neglect and to induce the conjunction fallacy in a later judgment phase as a by-product of the conversion bias. In Experiment 2, the authors found stronger evidence of the conversion bias with the same learning task. In Experiment 3, the authors changed the diagnostic-learning task to induce some conjunction fallacies that were not based on the conversion bias. The authors show that the conjunction fallacies obtained in Experiment 3 can be explained by adding an averaging component to M. A. Gluck and G. H. Bower's model.

Association Learning↗
PubMed2005

Confidence judgments by humans and rhesus monkeys.

Researchers have begun to evaluate animals' metacognitive capacities. Continuing this evaluation, the present authors asked whether monkeys could use the analog of a confidence-rating scale to judge retrospectively their accuracy in a psychophysical discrimination. Monkeys and human participants classified stimuli as dense or sparse without feedback. Then, they made a secondary confidence judgment by choosing responses that risked different levels of timeout but could earn different levels of reward. Human participants were instructed to use these responses to express levels of confidence. They used 2- and 3-level confidence-rating scales appropriately. Monkeys used the 2-level scale appropriately--especially one who performed almost identically to humans. Neither monkey used the 3-level scale as the humans did. These studies place humans and animals for the first time in the identical risk-taking situation that collects declarative confidence judgments from humans. They demonstrate the first retrospective reports of uncertainty by non-human primates while also suggesting their limits in this area.

Animals↗
PubMed1990

Experience, education, and nurses' ability to make clinical judgments.

Del Bueno makes us think anew about some old assumptions concerning the relationship of experience, education, and clinical judgment. In spite of our prejudices in one direction or another, del Bueno's study shows more within-group differences than between-group differences. Additionally, the author shows the potential for use of video simulation in making judgments about clinical decision making.

Clinical Competence↗
PubMed1989

Mental status assessment of insight and judgment.

Although a traditional part of the mental status examination, assessment of insight and judgment has received scant attention from researchers and clinicians. This is unfortunate, because few abilities are more crucial to decisions about whether a patient can continue to live independently or what level of supervision is needed. The authors discuss current and evolving methods for the assessment of insight and judgment, and also address neuroanatomic substrates and theoretical conceptions of these functions.

Aged↗
PubMed1989

Prediction of outcome from critical illness. A comparison of clinical judgment with a prediction rule.

Quantitative methods to enhance clinical judgment would be of tremendous benefit to physicians caring for the critically ill. The ability of physicians to predict outcome is a logical standard on which to base the prospective evaluation of a prediction rule intended for this clinical use. The APACHE (acute physiology and chronic health evaluation)-II score was compared with critical care physicians' prediction of outcome for a group of patients in a medical intensive care unit. Physicians were significantly better in predicting outcome in the critically ill. However, the APACHE-II score was still a good predictor of outcome in the intensive care unit and, according to analysis using Bayes' theorem, might still be a useful test to support physicians' judgment, especially in patients with a predicted mortality risk of less than 30%.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed1989

Space vehicle approach velocity judgments under simulated visual space conditions.

There were 35 volunteers who responded when they first perceived an increase in apparent size of a collimated, two-dimensional perspective image of an Orbiter vehicle. The variables of interest included the presence (or absence) of a fixed reticle within the field of view (FOV), background starfield velocity, initial range to the vehicle and vehicle closure velocity. It was found that: 1) increasing vehicle approach velocity yielded a very small (but significant) effect of faster detection of vehicle movement, nevertheless, response variability was relatively large; 2) including the fixed reticle in the FOV produced significantly slower detection of vehicle radial movement, however this occurred only at the largest range and the magnitude of the effect was only about 15% of the one sigma value; and 3) increasing background star velocity during this judgment led to slower detection of vehicle movement. While statistically significant, this effect was small and occurred primarily at the largest range. A possible explanation for the last two findings is that other static and dynamic objects within the visual field may compete for available attention which otherwise would be available for judging image expansion; thus, the target's retinal image has to expand more than otherwise for its movement to be detected. This study also showed that the Proximity Operations Research Mockup at NASA/Ames can be used effectively to investigate a variety of visual judgment questions related to future space operations. These findings are discussed in relation to previous research and possible underlying mechanisms.

Adult↗