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[Epidemiology of cancer of the breast in Mexico. Consequences of demography transition].

OBJECTIVE: Analyze the relation between reductions in fertility and the inverse en breast cancer mortality in the different states of Mexico for the period 1979-1994. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fertility rates and beast cancer mortality rates were utilized to analyze the proposed relationship in the states of the country. Principal component analysis and classification analysis were then used in the confirmatory analysis of this relationship. RESULTS: There is an important decrease in fertility trends overall with regional differences: the northern states of Mexico have lowest then the southern states. These regional differences are inversely related to the observed differences in breast cancer mortality within the states: the northern states have levels of breast cancer mortality much higher than the southern states. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in mortality due to breast cancer and its relation to the decrease in fertility illustrates the importance that must be given to the preventive aspect of health services since in the near future Mexican women will exhibit reproductive behaviors similar to women in developed countries.

Adolescent↗

Mutation and senescence: where genetics and demography meet.

Two evolutionary genetic models-mutation accumulation and antagonistic pleiotropy-have been proposed to explain the origin and maintenance of senescence. In this paper, we focus our attention on the mutation accumulation model. We re-examine previous evidence for mutation accumulation in light of new information from large-scale demographic experiments. After discussing evidence for the predictions that have been put forth from models of mutation accumulation, we discuss two critical issues at length. First, we discuss the possibility that classical fruit fly stock maintenance regimes may give rise to spurious results in selection studies of aging. Second, we consider evidence for the assumptions underlying evolutionary models of aging. These models assume that mutations act additively on age-specific survival rate, that there exist mutations whose effects are confined to late age-classes, and that all mutations have equal effects. Recent empirical evidence suggests that each of these three assumptions is unlikely to be true. On the basis of these results, we do not conclude that mutation accumulation is no longer a valid explanation for the evolution of aging. Rather, we suggest that we now need to begin developing more biologically realistic genetic models for the evolution of aging.

Aging↗

Demography of paranoid psychosis (delusional disorder): a review and comparison with schizophrenia and affective illness.

This article reviews the demographic characteristics of paranoid psychosis or delusional disorder (DD) and compares them with those found for schizophrenia and affective illness. Delusional disorder constitutes between 1% and 4% of all psychiatric admissions, with an incidence of first admissions between 1 and 3/100,000 population per year. Like affective illness, but unlike schizophrenia, DD is predominantly an illness of middle to late adult life, usually occurring in persons who have been married. Like schizophrenia, but unlike affective illness, DD occurs more frequently in low socioeconomic classes and produces a poor chance for full recovery. Delusional disorder occurs more frequently than either schizophrenia or affective illness in immigrants. From a demographic perspective, DD closely resembles neither schizophrenia not affective illness.

Adult↗

Fifty years of chimpanzee demography at Taronga Park Zoo.

There has been a captive Pan troglodytes colony at Taronga Park Zoo in Sydney, Australia, since the mid-1930s. Demographic data on these animals were first analyzed in 1986; however, further information collected for 15 years since then is now available. The reproductive histories of 33 females in the colony have been recorded, and these data form the largest collection of captive chimpanzee data from a setting that has involved natural breeding conditions since the mid-1960s. These data were analyzed in conjunction with data from wild populations to establish the degree of variability present within chimpanzee reproductive parameters, and to identify which distinctive life history characteristics persist in well-provisioned, natural-fertility populations. The age at first birth for the chimpanzee females is 9.8 yr on average (n=16), which is 1-4.8 yr earlier than the average for wild populations. In line with this accelerated reproduction, birth intervals are also significantly shorter than those in noncaptive chimpanzee populations. The median birth interval for all surviving infants (based on a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis) is 49 months (n=43) compared to 62+ months for wild groups. At the same time, infant mortality remains high. The data confirm distinctive features of the life history of common chimpanzees, including later maturation, long birth intervals, a relatively invariant fertility schedule, and high juvenile mortality. However, aspects of both fertility and mortality are significantly related to social circumstances, indicating that in common chimpanzees, as in humans, life history characters may represent ecological and social adaptations rather than species-fixed characteristics.

Age Factors↗

Demography, range use, and behavior in black lemurs (Eulemur macaco macaco) at Ampasikely, northwest Madagascar.

We studied a black lemur population over a 2-year period (1992-1993) and 8 years later (2000) in a 50-ha secondary forest in northwest Madagascar. All of the animals were marked to investigate population dynamics and seasonal variation in ranging and behavior, and new data on black lemurs were obtained. Our data on demographic characteristics were expanded to include other forest sites and contrasted with those collected in other Eulemur macaco macaco field studies, in relation to human activity and the presence of introduced and cultivated plant species. Density is affected by deforestation and hunting. Group size and home range depend on the composition of the forest and probably food patches. Sex ratio at birth varies according to the number of females per group, a result that fits the local resource competition model. Groups are multimale-multifemale, and adult females form the core of the groups. Reproductive parameters indicate sharply defined seasonal breeding, a high female reproductive rate, and birth synchrony. Changes in group composition reveal male and female juvenile dispersal, male transfer between groups at the time of mating, and adult female transfer and group fission when groups exceed a critical size. At mating and birth, intergroup agonistic encounters occurred at home-range boundaries, and larger groups were dominant over smaller groups. Patterns of intragroup interactions suggest that males compete for access to groups of females during the mating season, and that females may compete for food resources during the birth season. Our study also reports female social dominance and lack of sexual weight dimorphism in this species.

Animals↗

Head injuries in children under 36 months of age. Demography and outcome.

Head injuries in children under the age of 3 years have not been extensively studied, due in part to the lack of an objective tool for neurological assessment. We have developed a Children's Coma Scale (CCS) by modifying the verbal response subscore of the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) to overcome this limitation. When applied prospectively to children under 3 years of age, we found the CCS to be useful in predicting outcome. During the 5-year study period from 1981 to 1985, there were 738 patients with head injuries (0-16 years) admitted to the Children's Memorial Hospital in Chicago, including 318 (43.1%) less than 3 years of age. Initial data demonstrated the following observations. The most common mechanism of injury was a fall (75.5%). Although a brief loss of consciousness (LOC) was reported in three-fourths of the patients, prolonged LOC of more than 6 h was uncommon (16/318, 5.0%). The classically described "lucid interval" was seen in only 7 children (2.2%) and was not a reliable indicator of epidural hematoma. Post-traumatic seizures developed more commonly in children under 2 years of age (15.7%) than in older children (11.6% under 3 years of age, 9.6%, entire group), (P less than 0.001). Oculovestibular reflex and bilateral fixed dilated pupils had the most reliable correlation with outcome. Other brain-stem reflexes were less useful.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Cause of Death↗

[Demography and medicine in Switzerland: medical manpower and project "DEMOMED"].

The situation as regards medical manpower in Switzerland in 1975 is characterized by high enrollment in the medical schools and a doubling time for the number of physicians in practice of approximately twenty years. A federal commission concerned with problems related to medical studies (CEPREM) conducted a study aiming at defining an optimum figure for intake of students into the medical schools. A survey of the international literature and a statistical study of availability of physician services region by region in Switzerland were conducted. The results show that it is impossible to define with precision an optimum "medical density" for Switzerland. The system of health and the functions of its various professions are not defined, and powers of decision in this field are not uniformly attributed. In the national survey, the most striking feature was disparity between various regions as regards access to medical or paramedical services. This disparity is parallel to state of economical development, and unlikely to be corrected even by an excess of overall medical manpower. Four hypotheses are presented on the consequences of increase, decrease, or stable enrolment in the medical schools. We conclude that there is no technical basis for defining an optimal medical density, but that it would be reasonable to decrease the number of second-year students by a factor of the order of 25% on the basis of a political decision.

Physicians↗

Survivors of torture and organized violence: demography and diagnosis.

Sixty patients, with a history of torture or other repressive state violence, newly referred to two psychiatrists, were assessed using a standard instrument. Thirty one met the diagnostic criteria for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and 21 met the criteria for MDD. Relationships between these diagnoses and history of trauma, loss of health, and social losses were investigated. Sexual torture is associated with an avoidance reaction.

Adult↗

[Increasing life expectancy--what are the promises of demography?].

The prospects for a longer life are improving, for life expectancy is growing continuously. In Germany new-born boys are looking forward to 74.4 years, girls even to 80.6 years of life. But Germany is only mid-range internationally. As there is a linear trend for 160 years, it seems realistic that life expectancy in top countries will be 100 years in 2060. If we look more thoroughly we find that there are important differences in Germany. Whereas the southern parts are in the pole position, the former East Germany is at the bottom of the league. This separation is apparently caused by the different political systems in postwar Germany. There are even more differences if smaller regions are examined. The reasons for these differences are due to many influences, including personal features, conditions of life, lifestyle and, of course, medical treatment. As these factors are partly determined by individual behavior, people are partly responsible for their life and therefore also for the further development of life expectancy.

Aged↗

Demography and matrix analysis on a natural Pterocarya rhoifolia population developed along a mountain stream.

The population structures and dynamics of a dominant riparian canopy species, Pterocarya rhoifolia (Juglandaceae), were analyzed based on the census data collected for the 7 years from 1989 through 1996. A study plot was established over an environmental gradient that included the lower hill-slope, river terrace, and low-level floodplain of a riparian area within a 2.8-ha cool-temperate forest stand. Spatial analyses of the demographic data showed that there were significant differences in recruitment, growth, and death processes among the three habitats. The slope and terrace habitats were the severest for the pre-reproductive stage and recruitment process, respectively. A topographically combined projection matrix was constructed for the life-history processes of the three subpopulations, which clearly revealed that the floodplain and terrace subpopulations constituted the mainland source populations, whereas the slope subpopulation was an island sink population. The whole Pterocarya population linked by seed flow showed an increase in population size (lambda=1.052). The elasticity analysis showed that the sum of the elasticity values was zero, 0.14, and 0.85 in the slope, terrace and floodplain subpopulations, respectively. This fact clearly indicates that the role of the floodplain subpopulation as a source population is six times as large as that of the terrace subpopulation.

Journal Article↗

Demography of aging in China and the United States and the economic well-being of their older populations.

Today China has the world's largest older population, defined as aged 65 and over. The size of the older population in the United States is also large, ranking third in the world in 2000. The combined older populations of China and the United States represented 29 percent of the world's population 65 and older in 2000. The large older populations in these two countries are projected to more than double in size over the next three decades. Although currently China is younger than the United States and many other countries, its aging process will accelerate in the next few decades, with a speed surpassing the experience of many Western European countries and the United States. This paper examines the current and future situation of the older population in China and compares China's aging with that of the United States, using 2000 and earlier censuses from both countries as well as the population projections data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Growth of the older population, changes in the age distribution in China with comparisons to the United States, and the projections of the older population's future growth are analyzed and presented. The paper also discusses sources of financial support and living arrangements in China and the United States. Finally, the paper assesses trends in the older population support ratio and the implications for the economic well-being of an aging population.

Age Distribution↗

The Post-Mastectomy Rehabilitation Group program. Structure, procedure, and population demography.

Memorial Hospital, New York City, clinical section of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, has developed a Post-Mastectomy Rehabilitation Group (PMRG) which provides a comprehensive structure program to enable the mastectomy patient to regain functional use of her arm and shoulder on the affected side, and to adapt functionally, psychologically, and emotionally to the loss of her breast and the diagnosis of cancer in the shortest time possible. This first segment of an evaluation of the program outlines the PMRG structure and operating procedures and presents basic demographic data (age, type of mastectomy, preoperative activity status) for 863 of the 1,400 mastectomy patients who attended the program since inception in 1970. Additional reports will focus on the physical and psychologic aspects of recovery and readjustment.

Adult↗

Hirschsprung's disease: associated abnormalities and demography.

We here examine the demographic parameters of patients with Hirschsprung's disease. The study population includes all patients with histologically confirmed disease treated at the Children's Hospital Medical Center of Boston over the 25-year period extending from 1961 through the first quarter of 1986. There were 179 cases. Overall, children with Hirschsprung's disease were found less likely to be first born (P less than .01). This relationship was seen to persist irrespective of maternal age, maternal race, or type of disease. The implications of this finding are discussed. Overall, 22% of these children had one or more associated abnormalities involving the neurological, cardiovascular, urological, and gastrointestinal systems. Many of the disorders appeared to be related to neurocrestopathies. Frequent associations included Down's syndrome, defects in cardiac septation, tetralogy of Fallot, and Dandy-Walker syndrome. These conditions occurred more frequently than would have been predicted through chance alone. This study found no association between an increased maternal age and the occurrence of Hirschsprung's disease. This study also found that approximately 7% of the affected children had been born prematurely.

Abnormalities, Multiple↗

Endemic disease in host populations with fully specified demography.

This study explores the epidemiology of an aerogenically transmitted infectious disease following an S.I.R. pattern in a host population with completely specified age-specified maternity and mortality schedules. A fully age-structured demographic-epidemiologic model is developed, and its demographic and epidemiologic behaviour is explored in numerical studies. The impact of variations in host population demographic structure upon the effect of immunization programs is also studied.

Age Factors↗