Estimated risk for developing autoimmune Addison's disease in patients with adrenal cortex autoantibodies.
CONTEXT: Patients with adrenal cortex autoantibodies (ACA) without overt autoimmune Addison's disease (AAD) are at risk of adrenal failure. DESIGN: To assess the contribution of different clinical, immunological, genetic, and functional factors in the progression to AAD, we followed up 100 ACA-positive and 63 ACA-negative patients without AAD for a maximum of 21 yr (mean 6.0 yr, median 4.8). ACA were measured by immunofluorescence and 21-OH autoantibodies (Abs) by RIA. Adrenal function was assessed by measuring basal levels of cortisol, aldosterone, ACTH, renin activity, and cortisol response to ACTH. The risk of developing AAD was calculated using survival and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: AAD developed in 31 ACA-positive patients and one ACA-negative patient. The cumulative risk of disease in ACA-positive patients was 48.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 40.8-56.1]. The cumulative risk was higher in children than adults (100 vs. 31.9%; P < 0.0001), males than females (68.6 vs. 42.7%; P = 0.006), patients with subclinical rather than normal adrenal function at entry (87.4 vs. 30.1%; P < 0.0001), patients with hypoparathyroidism and/or candidiasis than patients with other autoimmune or nonautoimmune diseases (100 vs. 29.7%; P < 0.0001), and patients with high rather than low-medium ACA titers (62.8 vs. 41.2%; P = 0.12). The presence of human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DRB1 did not appear to contribute to the prediction of AAD. Adjusted hazard ratios by Cox model for the development of AAD were 3.37 for males (CI 1.38-8.24), 5.23 for hypoparathyroidism and/or candidiasis (CI 1.53-17.92), 3.33 for high antibody titers (CI 1.43-7.78), and 6.15 for impaired adrenal function at entry (CI 2.79-13.57). CONCLUSIONS: These results were used to construct a risk algorithm for estimating the probability of developing AAD from the combination of gender, age, adrenal function, antibody titer, and associated autoimmune disorders at entry. The values of estimated risk could be used to decide appropriate follow-up intervals and future immunointervention strategies.