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At least 847 records · Page 47Linked to original sources
PubMed1990

A numerical simulation of climate changes during the obliquity cycle on Mars.

A one-dimensional seasonal energy balance climate model has been developed for the Martian surface and coupled to a model of CO2 distribution between atmosphere, regolith, and polar caps. This model takes into account the greenhouse warming of carbon dioxide, the meridional transport of heat, the CO2 condensation and sublimation cycle, and its adsorption in the regolith. The model takes into consideration the diurnal variation of solar irradiation, since it is shown that disregard of this effect yields temperatures too high by several degrees. The yearly-averaged temperatures calculated from this climate model at different obliquities are used to estimate the importance of CO2 exchanges between the regolith and atmosphere-cap systems during the obliquity cycle. For this purpose, the equation of thermal diffusion into the ground is solved for each latitude belt. The results differ substantially from those of previous studies, due in part to the consideration of the diurnal and seasonal variations of the solar irradiance. The model shows the importance of taking these short-period variations into account instead of using yearly-averaged quantities, due to the strong nonlinearity of the climate system on Mars. The roles of meridional heat transport and greenhouse warming are analyzed and shown to be important. For example, a permanent polar cap of carbon dioxide is destroyed by heat transport when the obliquity is high, while at low obliquity, high-pressure systems without permanent cap can exist if enough exchangeable carbon dioxide is available. Further, the results show the possible existence of hysteresis cycles in the formation and sublimation of permanent deposits during the course of the obliquity cycle.

Atmosphere↗
PubMed2001

Nonlinear effects of large-scale climatic variability on wild and domestic herbivores.

Large-scale climatic fluctuations, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), have been shown to affect many ecological processes. Such effects have been typically assumed to be linear. Only one study has reported a nonlinear relation; however, that nonlinear relation was monotonic (that is, no reversal). Here we show that there is a strong nonlinear and non-monotonic (that is, reversed) effect of the NAO on body weight during the subsequent autumn for 23,838 individual wild red deer (Cervus elaphus) and 139,485 individual domestic sheep (Ovis aries) sampled over several decades on the west coast of Norway. These relationships are, at least in part, explained by comparable nonlinear and non-monotonic relations between the NAO and local climatic variables (temperature, precipitation and snow depth). The similar patterns observed for red deer and sheep, the latter of which live indoors during winter and so experience a stable energy supply in winter, suggest that the (winter) climatic variability (for which the index is a proxy) must influence the summer foraging conditions directly or indirectly.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

A satellite view of aerosols in the climate system.

Anthropogenic aerosols are intricately linked to the climate system and to the hydrologic cycle. The net effect of aerosols is to cool the climate system by reflecting sunlight. Depending on their composition, aerosols can also absorb sunlight in the atmosphere, further cooling the surface but warming the atmosphere in the process. These effects of aerosols on the temperature profile, along with the role of aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei, impact the hydrologic cycle, through changes in cloud cover, cloud properties and precipitation. Unravelling these feedbacks is particularly difficult because aerosols take a multitude of shapes and forms, ranging from desert dust to urban pollution, and because aerosol concentrations vary strongly over time and space. To accurately study aerosol distribution and composition therefore requires continuous observations from satellites, networks of ground-based instruments and dedicated field experiments. Increases in aerosol concentration and changes in their composition, driven by industrialization and an expanding population, may adversely affect the Earth's climate and water supply.

Aerosols↗
PubMed2002

Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle.

What can we say about changes in the hydrologic cycle on 50-year timescales when we cannot predict rainfall next week? Eventually, perhaps, a great deal: the overall climate response to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may prove much simpler and more predictable than the chaos of short-term weather. Quantifying the diversity of possible responses is essential for any objective, probability-based climate forecast, and this task will require a new generation of climate modelling experiments, systematically exploring the range of model behaviour that is consistent with observations. It will be substantially harder to quantify the range of possible changes in the hydrologic cycle than in global-mean temperature, both because the observations are less complete and because the physical constraints are weaker.

Aerosols↗
PubMed2004

High-latitude influence on the eastern equatorial Pacific climate in the early Pleistocene epoch.

Many records of tropical sea surface temperature and marine productivity exhibit cycles of 23 kyr (orbital precession) and 100 kyr during the past 0.5 Myr (refs 1-5), whereas high-latitude sea surface temperature records display much more pronounced obliquity cycles at a period of about 41 kyr (ref. 6). Little is known, however, about tropical climate variability before the mid-Pleistocene transition about 900 kyr ago, which marks the change from a climate dominated by 41-kyr cycles (when ice-age cycles and high-latitude sea surface temperature variations were dictated by changes in the Earth's obliquity) to the more recent 100-kyr cycles of ice ages. Here we analyse alkenones from marine sediments in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean to reconstruct sea surface temperatures and marine productivity over the past 1.8 Myr. We find that both records are dominated by the 41-kyr obliquity cycles between 1.8 and 1.2 Myr ago, with a relatively small contribution from orbital precession, and that early Pleistocene sea surface temperatures varied in the opposite sense to local annual insolation in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. We conclude that during the early Pleistocene epoch, climate variability at our study site must have been determined by high-latitude processes that were driven by orbital obliquity forcing.

Alkenes↗
PubMed2004

Collapse and rapid resumption of Atlantic meridional circulation linked to deglacial climate changes.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is widely believed to affect climate. Changes in ocean circulation have been inferred from records of the deep water chemical composition derived from sedimentary nutrient proxies, but their impact on climate is difficult to assess because such reconstructions provide insufficient constraints on the rate of overturning. Here we report measurements of 231Pa/230Th, a kinematic proxy for the meridional overturning circulation, in a sediment core from the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. We find that the meridional overturning was nearly, or completely, eliminated during the coldest deglacial interval in the North Atlantic region, beginning with the catastrophic iceberg discharge Heinrich event H1, 17,500 yr ago, and declined sharply but briefly into the Younger Dryas cold event, about 12,700 yr ago. Following these cold events, the 231Pa/230Th record indicates that rapid accelerations of the meridional overturning circulation were concurrent with the two strongest regional warming events during deglaciation. These results confirm the significance of variations in the rate of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation for abrupt climate changes.

Atlantic Ocean↗
PubMed2004

Wet periods in northeastern Brazil over the past 210 kyr linked to distant climate anomalies.

The tropics are the main source of the atmosphere's sensible and latent heat, and water vapour, and are therefore important for reconstructions of past climate. But long, accurately dated records of southern tropical palaeoclimate, which would allow the establishment of climatic connections to distant regions, have not been available. Here we present a 210,000-year (210-kyr) record of wet periods in tropical northeastern Brazil--a region that is currently semi-arid. The record is obtained from speleothems and travertine deposits that are accurately dated using the U/Th method. We find wet periods that are synchronous with periods of weak East Asian summer monsoons, cold periods in Greenland, Heinrich events in the North Atlantic and periods of decreased river runoff to the Cariaco basin. We infer that the wet periods may be explained with a southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. This widespread synchroneity of climate anomalies suggests a relatively rapid global reorganization of the ocean-atmosphere system. We conclude that the wet periods probably affected rainforest distribution, as plant fossils show that forest expansion occurred during these intermittent wet intervals, and opened a forest corridor between the Amazonian and Atlantic rainforests.

Atmosphere↗
PubMed2004

A humid climate state during the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum.

An abrupt climate warming of 5 to 10 degrees C during the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary thermal maximum (PETM) 55 Myr ago is linked to the catastrophic release of approximately 1,050-2,100 Gt of carbon from sea-floor methane hydrate reservoirs. Although atmospheric methane, and the carbon dioxide derived from its oxidation, probably contributed to PETM warming, neither the magnitude nor the timing of the climate change is consistent with direct greenhouse forcing by the carbon derived from methane hydrate. Here we demonstrate significant differences between marine and terrestrial carbon isotope records spanning the PETM. We use models of key carbon cycle processes to identify the cause of these differences. Our results provide evidence for a previously unrecognized discrete shift in the state of the climate system during the PETM, characterized by large increases in mid-latitude tropospheric humidity and enhanced cycling of carbon through terrestrial ecosystems. A more humid atmosphere helps to explain PETM temperatures, but the ultimate mechanisms underlying the shift remain unknown.

Atmosphere↗
PubMed2006

Winter forest soil respiration controlled by climate and microbial community composition.

Most terrestrial carbon sequestration at mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere occurs in seasonal, montane forest ecosystems. Winter respiratory carbon dioxide losses from these ecosystems are high, and over half of the carbon assimilated by photosynthesis in the summer can be lost the following winter. The amount of winter carbon dioxide loss is potentially susceptible to changes in the depth of the snowpack; a shallower snowpack has less insulation potential, causing colder soil temperatures and potentially lower soil respiration rates. Recent climate analyses have shown widespread declines in the winter snowpack of mountain ecosystems in the western USA and Europe that are coupled to positive temperature anomalies. Here we study the effect of changes in snow cover on soil carbon cycling within the context of natural climate variation. We use a six-year record of net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange in a subalpine forest to show that years with a reduced winter snowpack are accompanied by significantly lower rates of soil respiration. Furthermore, we show that the cause of the high sensitivity of soil respiration rate to changes in snow depth is a unique soil microbial community that exhibits exponential growth and high rates of substrate utilization at the cold temperatures that exist beneath the snow. Our observations suggest that a warmer climate may change soil carbon sequestration rates in forest ecosystems owing to changes in the depth of the insulating snow cover.

Bacteria↗
PubMed2002

Antarctic climate cooling and terrestrial ecosystem response.

The average air temperature at the Earth's surface has increased by 0.06 degrees C per decade during the 20th century, and by 0.19 degrees C per decade from 1979 to 1998. Climate models generally predict amplified warming in polar regions, as observed in Antarctica's peninsula region over the second half of the 20th century. Although previous reports suggest slight recent continental warming, our spatial analysis of Antarctic meteorological data demonstrates a net cooling on the Antarctic continent between 1966 and 2000, particularly during summer and autumn. The McMurdo Dry Valleys have cooled by 0.7 degrees C per decade between 1986 and 2000, with similar pronounced seasonal trends. Summer cooling is particularly important to Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems that are poised at the interface of ice and water. Here we present data from the dry valleys representing evidence of rapid terrestrial ecosystem response to climate cooling in Antarctica, including decreased primary productivity of lakes (6-9% per year) and declining numbers of soil invertebrates (more than 10% per year). Continental Antarctic cooling, especially the seasonality of cooling, poses challenges to models of climate and ecosystem change.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Effects of climate change and UV-B on materials.

The outdoor service life of common plastic materials is limited by their susceptibility to solar ultraviolet radiation. Of the solar wavelengths the UV-B component is particularly efficient in bringing about photodamage in synthetic and naturally occurring materials. This is particularly true of plastics, rubber and wood used in the building and agricultural industries. Any depletion in the stratospheric ozone layer and resulting increase in the UV-B component of terrestrial sunlight will therefore tend to decrease the service life of these materials. The extent to which the service life is reduced is, however, difficult to estimate as it depends on several factors. These include the chemical nature of the material, the additives it contains, the type and the amount of light-stabilizers (or protective coatings) used, and the amount of solar exposure it receives. Concomitant climate change is likely to increase the ambient temperature and humidity in some of the same regions likely to receive increased UV-B radiation. These factors, particularly higher temperatures, are also well known to accelerate the rate of photodegradation of materials, and may therefore further limit the service life of materials in these regions. To reliably assess the damage to materials as a consequence of ozone layer depletion, the wavelength sensitivity of the degradation process, dose-response relationships for the material and the effectiveness of available stabilizers need to be quantified. The data needed for the purpose are not readily available at this time for most of the commonly used plastics or wood materials. Wavelength sensitivity of a number of common plastic materials and natural biopolymers are available and generally show the damage (per photon) to decrease exponentially with the wavelength. Despite the relatively higher fraction of UV-A in sunlight, the UV-B content is responsible for a significant part of light-induced damage of materials. The primary approach to mitigation relies on the effectiveness of the existing light stabilizers (such as hindered amine light stabilizers, HALS) used in plastics exposed to harsh solar UV conditions coupled with climate change factors. In developing advanced light-stabilizer technologies, more light-resistant grades of common plastics, or surface protection technologies for wood, the harsh weathering environment created by the simultaneous action of increased UV-B levels due to ozone depletion as well as the relevant climate change factors need to be taken into consideration. Recent literature includes several studies on synergism of HALS-based stabilizers, stabilizer effectiveness in the new m-polyolefins and elucidation of the mechanism of stabilization afforded by titania pigment in vinyl plastics.

Climate↗
PubMed2005

Dynamical variability in the modelling of chemistry-climate interactions.

We have used a version of the Met Office's climate model, into which we have introduced schemes for atmospheric chemistry, to study chemistry-dynamics-climate interactions. We have considered the variability of the stratospheric polar vortex, whose behaviour influences stratospheric ozone loss and will affect ozone recovery. In particular, we analyse the dynamical control of high latitude ozone in a model version which includes an assimilation of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), demonstrating the stability of the linear relation between vortex strength and high latitude ozone. We discuss the effect of interactive model ozone on polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) area/volume and winter-spring stratospheric ozone loss in the northern hemisphere. In general we find larger polar ozone losses calculated in those model integrations in which modelled ozone is used interactively in the radiation scheme, even though we underestimate the slope of the ozone loss per PSC volume relation derived from observations. We have also looked at the influence of changing stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange on the tropospheric oxidizing capacity and, in particular, have considered the variability of tropospheric composition under different climate regimes (El Niño/La Niña, etc.). Focusing on the UT/LS, we show the response of ozone to El Niño in two different model set-ups (tropospheric/ stratospheric). In the stratospheric model set-up we find a distinct signal in the lower tropical stratosphere, which shows an anti-correlation between the Niño 3 index and the ozone column amount. In contrast ozone generally increases in the upper troposphere of the tropospheric model set-up after an El Niño. Understanding future trends in stratospheric ozone and tropospheric oxidizing capacity requires an understanding of natural variability, which we explore here.

Air Pollutants↗
PubMed2003

Climate change and waterborne and vector-borne disease.

This paper considers the potential impact on human health from waterborne and vector-borne infections. It concentrates on the impact of two possible changes to climate; increased frequency of heavy rainfall events, with associated flooding and increased temperature. Flooding is associated with increased risk of infection in developing nations but not in the West unless water sources are compromised. There have been numerous reported of outbreaks that followed flooding that led to contamination of underground sources of drinking water. Heavy rainfall also leads to deterioration in the quality of surface waters that could adversely affect the health of those engaged in recreational water contact. It is also concluded that there may be an increase in the number of cyanobacterial blooms because of a combination of increased nutrient concentrations and water temperature. It is considered unlikely that climate change will lead to an increase in disease linked to mains drinking water, although private supplies would be at risk from increased heavy rainfall events. Although increased temperature could lead to climatic conditions favourable to increases in certain vector-borne diseases such as malaria, the infrastructure in the UK would prevent the indigenous spread of malaria.

Animals↗
PubMed2001

Influence of climatic factors in the incidence of upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Previous reports have indicated seasonal fluctuations in the incidence of peptic ulcer activity, but the reasons for the seasonal pattern are not clear. We assessed the seasonal incidence of hematemesis caused by peptic ulcers or gastroesophageal varices, and the correlations between those and climatic factors. METHODS: We examined the number of cases of upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding caused by gastric ulcer (GU), duodenal ulcer (DU), or gastroesophageal varices (varix) diagnosed by urgent endoscopies between 1 January 1996 and 31 December 1999 in our hospital (Tokyo Metropolitan Bokutou Hospital). We evaluated the monthly and seasonal incidence of them and investigated correlations among the incidence and climatic factors. RESULTS: Four hundred and forty-one patients participated in this study, including 275 patients with GU (62.4%), 51 (11.6%) with DU, and 115 (26.0%) with varix. The number of cases of hematemesis caused by GU showed significant monthly and seasonal fluctuations (P = 0.0002, P = 0.0018): it decreased in summer and increased in autumn-winter. Moreover, there were inverse relations between the monthly number of cases of hematemesis caused by GU and the mean temperature (P = 0.0016) and vapor pressure (P = 0.0013), and a parallel relation to the mean atmospheric pressure (P = 0.0057). In contrast, the number of cases of hematemesis caused by DU and varices did not show any monthly or seasonal fluctuations. CONCLUSIONS: We found that the incidence of hematemesis because of GU had an inverse relationship to temperature and vapor pressure, and had a parallel relation to atmospheric pressure. Therefore, climatic factors may play an important role in hemorrhage from GU.

Climate↗
PubMed2000

Climate change: effects on culicoides--transmitted viruses and implications for the UK.

Changes in the distribution and abundance of insects are likely to be amongst the most important and immediate effects of climate change. We review here the risk that climate change poses to the UK's livestock industry via effects on Culicoides biting midges, the vectors of several arboviruses, including those that cause bluetongue (BT) and African horse sickness (AHS). The major old-world vector of BT and AHS viruses, C. imicola, occurs in southern Europe and will spread further north as global temperatures increase. It is unlikely, however, that in the foreseeable future it will reach and become established in the UK. As the distribution of C. imicola moves north, however, it may bring BT and AHS viruses into the range of other Culicoides species that are known to be competent vectors and which occur much further north. Once infected via this 'baton effect', these species may be able to spread the viruses over much of Europe, including the UK. Climate change may increase their vector competence further and will also increase the likelihood of viruses surviving from one year to the next. An additional risk is that the predicted increase in the frequency of short periods of hot temperatures may lead to the creation of novel vector species, by removing the barriers that in colder conditions make them refractory to viral infection.

African Horse Sickness↗
PubMed2004

Direct and indirect climate change effects on photosynthesis and transpiration.

Climate change affects plants in many different ways. Increasing CO(2) concentration can increase photosynthetic rates. This is especially pronounced for C(3) plants, at high temperatures and under water-limited conditions. Increasing temperature also affects photosynthesis, but plants have a considerable ability to adapt to their growth conditions and can function even at extremely high temperatures, provided adequate water is available. Temperature optima differ between species and growth conditions, and are higher in elevated atmospheric CO(2). With increasing temperature, vapour pressure deficits of the air may increase, with a concomitant increase in the transpiration rate from plant canopies. However, if stomata close in response to increasing CO(2) concentration, or if there is a reduction in the diurnal temperature range, then transpiration rates may even decrease. Soil organic matter decomposition rates are likely to be stimulated by higher temperatures, so that nutrients can be more readily mineralised and made available to plants. This is likely to increase photosynthetic carbon gain in nutrient-limited systems. All the factors listed above interact strongly so that, for different combinations of increases in temperature and CO(2) concentration, and for systems in different climatic regions and primarily affected by water or nutrient limitations, photosynthesis must be expected to respond differently to the same climatic changes.

Carbon Dioxide↗
PubMed2005

Climate change reverses the competitive balance of ash and beech seedlings under simulated forest conditions.

This study identifies the important role of climate change and photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) in the regenerative competence of ash and beech seedlings in 12 inter- and intra-specific competition designs in simulated mixed ash-beech forest gaps under conditions of non-limiting soil volume, water and nutrient supply. The growth conditions simulated natural forest conditions as closely as possible. Simulations were performed by growing interacting seedling canopies for one season in temperature-regulated closed-top chambers (CTCs). Eight CTCs were used in a factorial design with replicate treatments of [CO2] x temperature x PPFD x competition design. [CO2] tracked ambient levels or was 360 micromol mol-1 higher. Temperature tracked ambient levels or was 2.8 degrees C higher. PPFD on two plant tables inside each CTC was 16% and 5% of open-field levels, respectively, representative of typical light flux levels in a natural forest gap. In several of the competition designs, climate change made the ash seedlings grow taller than the beech seedlings and, at the same time, attain a larger leaf area and a larger total biomass. Advantages of this type for ash were found particularly at lower PPFD. There was a positive synergistic interaction of elevated temperature x [CO2] for both species, but more so for ash. There are many uncertainties when a study of chambered seedlings is to be projected to real changes in natural forests. Nevertheless, this study supports a possible future shift towards ash in north European, unmanaged, mixed ash-beech forests in response to the predicted climate change.

Carbon Dioxide↗
PubMed2006

Heart rate, thermoregulatory and humoral responses during a 9-day cycle race in a hot and humid climate.

Seven acclimated elite road cyclists were recruited from among the participants in the Tour de Guadeloupe, a 9-day cycle race (D1-D9) held in hot/humid climate (approximately 31 degrees C dry temperature and 76 % relative humidity). Each day of the competition, heart rate (HR) was recorded every 15 s, tympanic temperature (Ttym) was recorded before exercise and immediately at the end of each stage, and body mass loss (BML) was measured by changes in nude body mass at rest and after each stage. Blood lactate concentration [La] was measured at rest and 5 min after each stage. Venous blood samples were collected before the competition and on the 4 th and 8 th days (D4, D8) for hematological and serum determinations and biochemical analyses. No significant differences were found in cardiac, thermoregulatory, or [La] parameters at rest over the 9 days. The subjects spent 31 +/- 6 % of their time below the lactate threshold (LT), 52 +/- 8 % between LT and the onset of blood lactate accumulation (OBLA), and 18 +/- 6 % above OBLA. The increase in Ttym at D3 (0.48 +/- 0.3 degrees C) was significantly lower (p < 0.05) than at D1, D4, D5, and D6. No difference was found for BML between the different stages. Significant increases (p < 0.05) were observed in monocytes at D8 vs. D4 and pre-race values (D0) and in serum Cl-concentration at D4 vs. D0 and D8 (p < 0.05). A significant reduction was observed in mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC) at D8 and D4 vs. D0 (p < 0.01). No difference was found in other blood parameters at D0, D4, or D8. Taken together, these results suggest that a consecutive 9-day cycle competition in hot/humid climate did not alter homeostasis at rest in acclimated well-trained cyclists. No major effect of repeated cycling stages on thermoregulatory and blood parameters was observed during the Tour de Guadeloupe. Further research is needed to compare the cardiac adaptations of natives to tropical climate and un-acclimated subjects during long-duration exercise.

Adult↗