Introduction to Bayesian methods III: use and interpretation of Bayesian tools in design and analysis.
The Bayesian approach and several of its advantages in drug and medical device development are described. One advantage from the perspective of analysis is that it provides a methodology for synthesizing information. However, taking a Bayesian approach to designing clinical trials is potentially more valuable than using this approach in analyzing trial results. Bayesian methodology provides a mechanism for updating what is known as results accumulate during a trial. Such updating can be incorporated completely explicitly and prospectively. An important way in which the Bayesian approach can be used is in calculating the predictive probability distribution of future results on the basis of current results. I show how to exploit predictive distributions in adapting to results that accumulate during the course of a trial. Possible adaptations including decreasing or increasing sample size, dropping treatment arms, and modifying the randomization proportions to the various arms depending on the interim results. Consequences of taking a Bayesian approach to clinical trial design are efficiency, better treatment of patients in the trial, and greater precision regarding the primary endpoints. An example of the last of these is Bayesian modeling of the relationship between early and longer term endpoints. Such modeling also enables earlier decision making. Case studies 2 and 3 deal with trials that were shorter and smaller, respectively, because of such modeling.