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At least 811 records · Page 45Linked to original sources
PubMed2002

An approach to forecasting health expenditures, with application to the U.S. Medicare system.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify uncertainty in forecasts of health expenditures. STUDY DESIGN: Stochastic time series models are estimated for historical variations in fertility, mortality, and health spending per capita in the United States, and used to generate stochastic simulations of the growth of Medicare expenditures. Individual health spending is modeled to depend on the number of years until death. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: A simple accounting model is developed for forecasting health expenditures, using the U.S. Medicare system as an example. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Medicare expenditures are projected to rise from 2.2 percent of GDP (gross domestic product) to about 8 percent of GDP by 2075. This increase is due in equal measure to increasing health spending per beneficiary and to population aging. The traditional projection method constructs high, medium, and low scenarios to assess uncertainty, an approach that has many problems. Using stochastic forecasting, we find a 95 percent probability that Medicare spending in 2075 will fall between 4 percent and 18 percent of GDP, indicating a wide band of uncertainty. Although there is substantial uncertainty about future mortality decline, it contributed little to uncertainty about future Medicare spending, since lower mortality both raises the number of elderly, tending to raise spending, and is associated with improved health of the elderly, tending to reduce spending. Uncertainty about fertility, by contrast, leads to great uncertainty about the future size of the labor force, and therefore adds importantly to uncertainty about the health-share of GDP. In the shorter term, the major source of uncertainty is health spending per capita. CONCLUSIONS: History is a valuable guide for quantifying our uncertainty about future health expenditures. The probabilistic model we present has several advantages over the high-low scenario approach to forecasting. It indicates great uncertainty about future Medicare expenditures relative to GDP.

Accounting↗
PubMed2004

National and regional prevalence of self-reported epilepsy in Canada.

PURPOSE: To assess the point prevalence of self-described epilepsy in the general population nationally, provincially, and in different groups of interest. METHODS: We analyzed data from two national health surveys, the National Population Health Survey (NPHS, N=49,000) and the Community Health Survey (CHS, N=130,882). Both surveys captured sociodemographic information, as well as age, sex, education, ethnicity, household income, and labor force status of participants. Epilepsy was ascertained with only one question in both surveys. "Do you have epilepsy diagnosed by a health professional?" (NPHS) and "Do you have epilepsy?" (CHS). Prevalences were age-adjusted by using national standard populations at the time of each survey. Exact 95% confidence intervals were obtained. RESULTS: In the NPHS, 241 of 49,026 subjects described themselves as having been diagnosed with epilepsy, yielding a weighted point prevalence of 5.2 per 1,000 [95% confidence interval (CI), 4.9-5.4]. In the CHS, 835 of 130,822 subjects described themselves as having epilepsy, yielding a weighted point prevalence of 5.6 per 1,000 (95% CI, 5.1-6.0). Trends in differences in prevalence among some Canadian provinces were observed. Prevalence was statistically significantly higher in groups with the lowest educational level, lowest income, and in those unemployed in the previous year. Prevalence also was higher in nonimmigrants than in immigrants. CONCLUSIONS: The overall and group-specific results are in keeping with those obtained in other developed countries by using different ascertainment methods. We discuss methodologic aspects related to the ascertainment of epilepsy in both surveys, and to the validity and implications of our findings.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1994

Migration and unemployment duration among young adults.

"The relationship between migration and unemployment duration is examined. Standard job search predictors of spell length (replacement income, labor force experience, personal characteristics and economic conditions) are included as control variables alongside measures of migration in a Weibull hazard model. The model is estimated using data from the [U.S.] National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Young adults who migrated while unemployed had longer durations of unemployment than those who did not migrate. The rate at which they found jobs was also linked to how long they had been unemployed, to being laid off, being African American, to going to college, having a mortgage and to national unemployment conditions."

Americas↗
PubMed1987

Interpreting changes in the economic status of the elderly, 1949-1979.

"This paper analyzes changes in the economic well-being of the elderly using data from the [U.S.] Decennial Censuses of 1950 through 1980. We find that the economic status of each elderly cohort is higher on average than that of the preceding cohort. Certain events associated with age--retirement for both men and women and widowhood for women--are associated with declining incomes. Controlling for sex, labor force participation, and marital status, however, the economic well-being of elderly cohorts generally increases with age."

Adult↗
PubMed1990

The impact of unemployment insurance benefits on the probability of migration of the unemployed.

"By ignoring individual unemployment compensation benefits and conditions of job termination, past migration research has concluded that personal unemployment doubles the likelihood of interstate labor-force migration. Findings from the present study indicate that aggregating the unemployed, without adjusting for these two factors, overstates the probability of migration for the involuntarily unemployed benefit recipient and understates the likelihood of migration for the voluntarily unemployed benefit recipient. The results suggest that federal discretionary unemployment-compensation programs, which are implemented during recessionary periods, likely serve to retard out-migration of those who are involuntarily unemployed." Data are from a 1982 sample of unemployed U.S. workers.

Americas↗
PubMed1988

Caribbean immigrants in Britain and Canada: socio-economic adjustment.

This paper compares the socioeconomic experiences of Caribbean immigration in Britain and Canada and shows how differing immigration trends together with changing economic circumstances influenced the process of integration. Caribbean immigrants in Canada are more recent arrivals than those in Britain and, in 1981, were still experiencing initial adjustment problems aggravated by an economy in which unemployment is still high. Unlike Britain, which has a large population born in that country of West Indian parentage, the "2nd generation" in Canada is small and mostly still in school. Despite higher levels of education and qualifications than their counterparts in Britain, Caribbean immigrants in Canada faced similar problems. Males were relatively more concentrated in manufacturing industries in Canada and in transportation in Britain, sectors which were undergoing significant structural change and experiencing high levels of unemployment. Earned income was below average in both countries but there were interesting gender differences. Caribbean women experienced the same "earnings gap", relative to men, that characterized most women in the labor force. However, Caribbean women were relatively more successful than men, as measured by unemployment rates and earned incomes. This appears to be due to their qualifications in nursing and other service occupations that continued to expand, and to be in demand in the 1970s and 1980s, when other occupations were declining in response to technological change and "post-industrial" developments. In both countries there were residual disadvantages, faced by Caribbean men and women, which cannot be statistically explained by factors such as age, education, period of immigration, or structural changes in the economy. These can be attributed, at least in part, to the institutionalized prejudice and discrimination against racial minorities which is prevalent in both societies. In absolute terms Caribbean immigrants in Canada are clearly better off than their counterparts in Britain. However, relative to other immigrants, and the native-born population with similar demographic characteristics and educational qualifications, those in Canada experience similar disadvantages.

Acculturation↗
PubMed1990

Occupational continuity and international migration of skilled workers: the case of Mersey Port workers.

"As part of a current concern among geographers to identify the local specificity of labour markets...and the regional impacts of international migration from [the United Kingdom], this paper considers one case of regional specificity--the Port of Liverpool--and how the traditional skills of the port and associated activities, on and off-shore, have provided important linkages with international demand for skills in these occupations, and have spontaneously maintained international but non-permanent flows of skilled workers from Merseyside." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)

Demography↗
PubMed1990

Setting norms in the United Nations system: the draft convention on the protection of the rights of all migrant workers and their families in relation to ILO in standards on migrant workers.

The author reviews the U.N.'s draft proposal concerning the rights of migrant workers and their families. "This article examines the nature and scope of obligations under the United Nations Convention and contrasts them with existing international standards. In the light of the elaboration of the U.N. Convention, the conditions of future normative activities to limit negative consequences of a proliferation of instruments and supervisory mechanisms are outlined." Consideration is given to human and trade union rights, employment, social security, living and working conditions, workers' families, expulsion, and conditions of international migration. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)

Demography↗
PubMed1990

Labour migration and the work permit system in the United Kingdom.

"The aim of this paper is to examine the effects of the work permit today [in the United Kingdom], using official data. It first reviews the operation of the [labor migration] system and describes the main schemes incorporated. Then, it uses data for 1984-88 to describe the general characteristics of labor immigration through the schemes. Finally, by means of a small random sample of applications and issues, it presents details on particular aspects of the immigration. It demonstrates that current labour immigration through the system is selective: most of those entering with long-term permits are highly skilled, well paid, and moving within the internal labor markets of large transnational corporations." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)

Demography↗
PubMed1991

The impact of the Gulf war on migration and remittances in Asia and the Middle East.

The author discusses the impact of the 1990 Gulf war on the migrant worker populations in the region, with a focus on migration and remittances in Asia and the Middle East. Both immediate and long-term effects are considered. "From the perspective of foreign migrant communities living in the Gulf...the war...was much more of a disaster for Arabs than for Asians....Arab migrant populations...were dramatically affected by the Gulf crisis. In contrast, the Asian migrant community was largely concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the [United Arab Emirates] and remained relatively less affected by the crisis. Subsequent polarization in the Arab world gives Asian labor-exporting countries an unexpected opportunity to increase their share of Gulf labor markets still further in the coming years." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)

Asia↗
PubMed1991

[The Mexico of "the other side": Mexican immigrants in the United States].

"The purpose of this work is to explore the advantages and disadvantages of... Mexican immigrant workers for the economy and the political and cultural status quo of the United States. The Mexican immigrant workers pose a dilemma for the United States. On the one hand, the United States needs them for a better functioning of its economy. On the other, the Mexican immigrant workers represent a racial, cultural and political challenge to the American 'establishment'.... Given the magnitude of the problem which the Mexican immigrants represent and the intense debate surrounding it, the cheap labour they represent for the economy of the United States and the unsolved conflicts this provokes, are fertile ground for the analysis of the economic, political and cultural interests competing for the degree of flexibility or the amount of policing the Mexican border should have." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE)

Acculturation↗
PubMed1992

The Caribbean migrant farm worker programme in Ontario: seasonal expansion of West Indian economic spaces.

The authors describe a program sponsored by farmers in Canada to import seasonal agricultural workers to Ontario from the Caribbean and Mexico. "On the basis of survey data obtained in 1987, this paper focuses primarily on levels of earnings and characteristics of individual participants. Some comparisons are also made between the Ontario programme and one in Florida which also involved temporary West Indian labour." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)

Agriculture↗