Search PubMed⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search PubMed

Results for “Bayesian modelling”

Search indexed PubMed citations on genomics, clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health. Explore titles, authors and supplied subject terms, then open the PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 811 records · Page 45Linked to original sources

Bayesian coclustering of Anopheles gene expression time series: study of immune defense response to multiple experimental challenges.

We present a method for Bayesian model-based hierarchical coclustering of gene expression data and use it to study the temporal transcription responses of an Anopheles gambiae cell line upon challenge with multiple microbial elicitors. The method fits statistical regression models to the gene expression time series for each experiment and performs coclustering on the genes by optimizing a joint probability model, characterizing gene coregulation between multiple experiments. We compute the model using a two-stage Expectation-Maximization-type algorithm, first fixing the cross-experiment covariance structure and using efficient Bayesian hierarchical clustering to obtain a locally optimal clustering of the gene expression profiles and then, conditional on that clustering, carrying out Bayesian inference on the cross-experiment covariance using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation to obtain an expectation. For the problem of model choice, we use a cross-validatory approach to decide between individual experiment modeling and varying levels of coclustering. Our method successfully generates tightly coregulated clusters of genes that are implicated in related processes and therefore can be used for analysis of global transcript responses to various stimuli and prediction of gene functions.

Algorithms↗

An evaluation of spatial and multivariate covariance among childhood cancer histotypes in Texas (United States).

BACKGROUND: Spatial modeling of rare diseases, such as childhood cancer, has been hampered by imprecise risk estimates. Recent developments in Bayesian hierarchical modeling include the ability to adjust a disease risk estimate to be fully conditional for covariance among neighboring locations and for covariance among multiple diseases within each location. This joint modeling approach is called Multivariate Intrinsic Conditional Autoregressive. The objective of this study was to evaluate the spatial and histotype covariance among childhood cancer histotypes, in Texas. Results will be valuable for selecting appropriate models to support more specific etiologic studies of environmental factors for childhood cancer. METHODS: County level standard morbidity ratios for 13 childhood cancer histotype groups were estimated using Multivariate Intrinsic Conditional Autoregressive modeling and the results compared to results from two reduced models. The two reduced models were the base model specified with zero spatial covariance and the base model specified with zero histotype covariance. The results were compared using the Deviance Information Criterion and Geographical Information System techniques were used to compare patterns of standard morbidity ratios. RESULTS: Including histotype covariance greatly improved the Deviance Information Criterion and including spatial covariance produced a moderate improvement. Parameter evaluation by GIS techniques showed that excluding histotype covariance resulted in marked shrinkage of the risk estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Investigation of childhood cancer could benefit by incorporating histotype covariance into environmental modeling.

Adolescent↗

Ultraviolet light inactivation of protozoa in drinking water: a Bayesian meta-analysis.

To assess the dose of UV light needed to achieve specified levels of Giardia spp. cysts and Cryptosporidium spp. oocysts inactivation in drinking water, a Bayesian meta-analysis is used to analyze experimental data from several studies. Of the 20 studies identified by an extensive data collection effort, 14 (five reported experiments on Giardia and nine on Cryptosporidium) were selected for analysis based on a set of criteria. A substantial amount of the log inactivation data are reported as greater than a given inactivation level (i.e., censored data). The Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach used in this study not only properly addresses the common concerns in a meta-analysis but also provides a robust method for incorporating censored data. Different statistical models will result in different estimates of the UV doses needed to achieve a specific inactivation level. The Bayesian approach allows us to present the uncertainty in terms of risk, which is better suited for supporting US EPA in developing regulations.

Animals↗

Coregionalized single- and multiresolution spatially varying growth curve modeling with application to weed growth.

Modeling of longitudinal data from agricultural experiments using growth curves helps understand conditions conducive or unconducive to crop growth. Recent advances in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) now allow geocoding of agricultural data that help understand spatial patterns. A particularly common problem is capturing spatial variation in growth patterns over the entire experimental domain. Statistical modeling in these settings can be challenging because agricultural designs are often spatially replicated, with arrays of subplots, and interest lies in capturing spatial variation at possibly different resolutions. In this article, we develop a framework for modeling spatially varying growth curves as Gaussian processes that capture associations at single and multiple resolutions. We provide Bayesian hierarchical models for this setting, where flexible parameterization enables spatial estimation and prediction of growth curves. We illustrate using data from weed growth experiments conducted in Waseca, Minnesota, that recorded growth of the weed Setaria spp. in a spatially replicated design.

Bayes Theorem↗

Comparison of the Bayesian approach and a limited sampling model for the estimation of AUC and Cmax: a computer simulation analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To compare two limited sampling methods (Bayesian and the limited sampling model) for the estimation of AUC and Cmax following a single oral dose of a hypothetical drug. METHODS: The plasma concentration vs time data sets for 50 subjects using a linear one- or two-compartment pharmacokinetic model were generated by simulation. The limited sampling model (LSM) was developed using samples from 10 subjects using one or two time points. The simulated plasma concentrations were also used for Bayesian evaluation. Bayesian analysis was performed on Non-Mem and mean pharmacokinetic parameters used for simulation were assumed as population pharmacokinetic parameters. In addition a test drug was also used to compare the predicted AUC and Cmax for the two approaches. RESULTS: Both methods were validated in 40 subjects for the hypothetical drug and in 12 subjects for the test drug. Both methods provided good estimates of AUC and Cmax. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that the LSM is similar to the Bayesian method and may be used in lieu of the Bayesian approach in estimating AUC and Cmax using one or two samples in clinical settings without detailed pharmacokinetic studies.

Area Under Curve↗

Sparse Bayesian kernel survival analysis for modeling the growth domain of microbial pathogens.

Survival analysis is a branch of statistics concerned with the time elapsing before "failure," with diverse applications in medical statistics and the analysis of the reliability of electrical or mechanical components. We introduce a parametric accelerated life survival analysis model based on kernel learning methods that, at least in principal, is able to learn arbitrary dependencies between a vector of explanatory variables and the scale of the distribution of survival times. The proposed kernel survival analysis method is then used to model the growth domain of Clostridium botulinum, the food processing and storage conditions permitting the growth of this foodborne microbial pathogen, leading to the production of the neurotoxin responsible for botulism. A Bayesian training procedure, based on the evidence framework, is used for model selection and to provide a credible interval on model predictions. The kernel survival analysis models are found to be more accurate than models based on more traditional survival analysis techniques but also suggest a risk assessment of the foodborne botulism hazard would benefit from the collection of additional data.

Artificial Intelligence↗

Using fragment chemistry data mining and probabilistic neural networks in screening chemicals for acute toxicity to the fathead minnow.

The paper is illustrating how the general data mining methodology may be adapted to provide solutions to the problem of high throughput virtual screening of organic chemicals for possible acute toxicity to the fathead minnow fish. The present approach involves mining fragment information from chemical structures and is using probabilistic neural networks to model the relationship between structure and toxicity. Probabilistic neural networks implement a special class of multivariate non-linear Bayesian statistical models. The mathematical principles supporting their use for value prediction purposes are clarified and their peculiarities discussed. As part of the research phase of the data mining process, a dataset consisting of 800 structures and associated fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) 96-h LC50 acute toxicity endpoint information is used for both the purpose of identifying an advantageous combination of fragment descriptors and for training the neural networks. As a result, two powerful models are generated. Model 1 implements the basic PNN with Gaussian kernel (statistical corrections included) while Model 2 implements the PNN with Gaussian kernel and separated variables. External validation is performed using a separate dataset consisting of 86 structures and associated toxicity information. Both learning and generalization capabilities of the two models are investigated and their limitations discussed.

Animals↗

Multilevel IRT using dichotomous and polytomous response data.

A structural multilevel model is presented where some of the variables cannot be observed directly but are measured using tests or questionnaires. Observed dichotomous or ordinal polytomous response data serve to measure the latent variables using an item response theory model. The latent variables can be defined at any level of the multilevel model. A Bayesian procedure Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to estimate all parameters simultaneously is presented. It is shown that certain model checks and model comparisons can be done using the MCMC output. The techniques are illustrated using a simulation study and an application involving students' achievements on a mathematics test and test results regarding management characteristics of teachers and principles.

Analysis of Variance↗

Use of Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to model cost-of-illness data.

It is well known that the modeling of cost data is often problematic due to the distribution of such data. Commonly observed problems include 1) a strongly right-skewed data distribution and 2) a significant percentage of zero-cost observations. This article demonstrates how a hurdle model can be implemented from a Bayesian perspective by means of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation methods using the freely available software WinBUGS. Assessment of model fit is addressed through the implementation of two cross-validation methods. The relative merits of this Bayesian approach compared to the classical equivalent are discussed in detail. To illustrate the methods described, patient-specific non-health-care resource-use data from a prospective longitudinal study and the Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR) are utilized for 218 individuals with early inflammatory polyarthritis (IP). The NOAR database also includes information on various patient-level covariates.

Arthritis↗

Pharmacokinetic optimisation of antibacterial treatment in patients with cystic fibrosis. Current practice and suggestions for future directions.

Antibacterials play a central role in the medical management of patients with cystic fibrosis (CF). Administration of adequate dosages of antibacterials results in pronounced beneficial effects on the morbidity and mortality of this patient group. The dosage of the antibacterial that is needed for optimal treatment depends on the individual patient's pharmacokinetics and the pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic effect on the micro-organism of relevance in the host. In general, the disposition of antibacterial drugs in patients with CF is not as 'atypical' as once thought. Recent research with adequately matched controls demonstrated that, for a few beta-lactam antibacterials only, a CF-specific increase of the total body clearance seems to exist and that the large volumes of distribution observed are the result of malnutrition and the relative lack of adipose tissue. Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic relationships in patients with CF are less well studied. Apart from the pharmacokinetics, there is a need for optimisation of antibacterial therapy. For the aminoglycosides, pharmacokinetic optimisation based on measured serum drug concentrations is common practice. The Sawchuk-Zaske method based on peak and trough drug concentrations is widely used. A more sophisticated approach is the 'goal-oriented model-based Bayesian adaptive control' method, where integration of mathematically determined optimally (D-optimally) sampled serum drug concentrations and a population model results in the most likely set of individual pharmacokinetic parameter values suitable for further pharmacokinetic optimisation of the therapy. A future development is the integration of changing serum drug concentrations and killing rates of the target micro-organism to a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic surrogate relationship to optimise drug therapy. The latter approach may be extremely useful in deciding on the frequency of aminoglycoside administration as well as the optimal use of the beta-lactam antibacterials and fluoroquinolones.

Aminoglycosides↗

On the use of Bayesian methods for evaluating compartmental neural models.

Computational modeling is being used increasingly in neuroscience. In deriving such models, inference issues such as model selection, model complexity, and model comparison must be addressed constantly. In this article we present briefly the Bayesian approach to inference. Under a simple set of commonsense axioms, there exists essentially a unique way of reasoning under uncertainty by assigning a degree of confidence to any hypothesis or model, given the available data and prior information. Such degrees of confidence must obey all the rules governing probabilities and can be updated accordingly as more data becomes available. While the Bayesian methodology can be applied to any type of model, as an example we outline its use for an important, and increasingly standard, class of models in computational neuroscience--compartmental models of single neurons. Inference issues are particularly relevant for these models: their parameter spaces are typically very large, neurophysiological and neuroanatomical data are still sparse, and probabilistic aspects are often ignored. As a tutorial, we demonstrate the Bayesian approach on a class of one-compartment models with varying numbers of conductances. We then apply Bayesian methods on a compartmental model of a real neuron to determine the optimal amount of noise to add to the model to give it a level of spike time variability comparable to that found in the real cell.

Action Potentials↗

The design and construction of a medical simulation model.

This paper describes the design, construction and validation of a probabilistic simulation model of patients who present with abdominal pain. The model incorporates text-book medical knowledge, clinical judgment, and statistics collected from real cases. The knowledge representation combines techniques of Bayesian network modelling with ideas of logistic discrimination. The model is shown to generate convincing, realistic cases; large numbers of artificial cases with no missing observations can be generated quickly. This should make the model a useful tool for investigating factors which limit achievable computer accuracy in the diagnosis of abdominal pain.

Abdominal Pain↗

[Aminoglycoside determinations calculated in endocarditis vegetations. Relations with clinical practices during infectious endocarditis treatment with amikacin].

Using a new computer program SPHERE, amikacin concentrations have been computed at various layers of simulated endocardial vegetations. Inputs are the computed serum (central compartment) concentrations of either population pharmacokinetic models or of individualized patient-specific models utilizing Bayesian fitting to data of doses given and measured serum levels, using the USC*PACK PC Clinical Programs. The vegetation is modeled as an isotropic homogeneous sphere. Fick's second law of radial diffusion was applied to compute the in situ antibiotic concentrations. Examination of factors affecting concentrations in vegetations shows that in situ peak concentrations are less when the vegetation is larger, and when the antibiotic dose, serum concentrations and diffusivity are all less. The results show that early and aggressive treatment of infectious endocarditis is required with high doses of concentration-dependent antibiotics, such as aminoglycosides, to achieve the desired high peak serum levels and to reach effective concentrations deep inside the vegetations.

Amikacin↗

A meta-analysis of studies on the association of the platelet PlA polymorphism of glycoprotein IIIa and risk of coronary heart disease.

The Pl(A2) polymorphism of the glycoprotein IIIa subunit of the fibrinogen receptor (GPIIb-IIIa) has been reported by some studies to be associated with an increased risk of coronary thrombosis. Following the first paper on the subject in 1996, a large number of studies have investigated the relationship between this polymorphism and coronary thrombosis, either at the epidemiological or at the cellular and molecular levels. The cellular and molecular studies have shown in a consistent manner that this polymorphism increases platelet responsiveness. In contrast, epidemiological studies have generated inconsistent results regarding the clinical impact of Pl(A2). We consider 12 epidemiological studies that investigate the link between presence/absence of this polymorphism and presence/absence of coronary heart disease. Each is a case-control study that reports an odds ratio. The studies are not directly comparable because they differ greatly in their patient pools and also in the way the data are analysed. We present several meta-analyses of these 12 studies. The simplest one is based on a standard frequentist random effects model with a normal distribution for the study effects (the per-study population log-odds ratios). We also consider a Bayesian version of this model, with a diffuse prior for the mean and variance of the normal distribution of the study effects. The conclusions from both of these analyses is about the same, and is that there is evidence that the Pl(A2) polymorphism is associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease. A look at the reported log-odds ratios across studies suggests that the study effects do not come from a symmetric distribution. For this reason, we also consider semi-parametric priors for the distribution of the study effects. These priors are specifically designed for this kind of meta-analysis, and are based on a certain class of mixtures of Dirichlet priors. They can be designed to concentrate most of their mass around the family of normal distributions, but still allow for any other distribution. The semi-parametric Bayesian model continues to give evidence of an association between the Pl(A2) polymorphism and the risk of coronary heart disease.

Bayes Theorem↗

An evaluation of factors influencing Bayesian learning systems.

This paper examines the influences of situational and model factors upon the accuracy of Bayesian learning systems. In particular, it is concerned with the impact of variations in training sample size, number of attributes, choice of Bayesian model, and criteria for excluding model attributes upon the overall accuracy of the simple and proper Bayes models.

Artificial Intelligence↗

Markov chain Monte Carlo for mapping a quantitative trait locus in outbred populations.

A Bayesian approach is presented for mapping a quantitative trait locus (QTL) using the 'Fernando and Grossman' multivariate Normal approximation to QTL inheritance. For this model, a Bayesian implementation that includes QTL position is problematic because standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms do not mix, i.e. the QTL position gets stuck in one marker interval. This is because of the dependence of the covariance structure for the QTL effects on the adjacent markers and may be typical of the 'Fernando and Grossman' model. A relatively new MCMC technique, simulated tempering, allows mixing and so makes possible inferences about QTL position based on marginal posterior probabilities. The model was implemented for estimating variance ratios and QTL position using a continuous grid of allowed positions and was applied to simulated data of a standard granddaughter design. The results showed a smooth mixing of QTL position after implementation of the simulated tempering sampler. In this implementation, map distance between QTL and its flanking markers was artificially stretched to reduce the dependence of markers and covariance. The method generalizes easily to more complicated applications and can ultimately contribute to QTL mapping in complex, heterogeneous, human, animal or plant populations.

Animals↗

Spatial distribution of Escherichia coli O157-positive farms in Scotland.

Using a sample of 949 Scottish farms with finishing cattle, the spatial distribution of Escherichia coli O157-positive farms was investigated using disease mapping models. The overall prevalence of E. coli O157-positive farms was estimated as 22%. The regions used in this study were the 16 postcode areas of Scotland. For each region, the posterior relative risk (RR) was estimated as a model-based alternative to the saturated standardized morbidity ratio (SMR), i.e., the ratio between observed and expected cases in a region. Three Bayesian hierarchical models with generalized linear modeling of the area-specific risks were used to estimate the posterior relative risk of E. coli O157-positive farms in the postcode areas: a random-effects model incorporating only spatially uncorrelated heterogeneity; a model incorporating both spatially correlated and uncorrelated heterogeneity; and a pseudo-mixture model with unstructured correlation and a weighted mix of two variance components representing the spatial correlation and a jump structure. None of the models identified any areas with a significant increase or decrease in risk. The deviance information criteria slightly favored the simplest model (RR range: 0.92--1.09). However, this model appeared to smooth out more of the variation in the RR compared to the pseudo-mixture model, which gave a more informative pattern of the posterior relative risks (range: 0.81--1.22).

Animals↗

Diazepam pharamacokinetics from preclinical to phase I using a Bayesian population physiologically based pharmacokinetic model with informative prior distributions in WinBUGS.

Modelling is an important applied tool in drug discovery and development for the prediction and interpretation of drug pharmacokinetics. Preclinical information is used to decide whether a compound will be taken forwards and its pharmacokinetics investigated in human. After proceeding to human little to no use is made of these often very rich data. We suggest a method where the preclinical data are integrated into a whole body physiologically based pharmacokinetic (WBPBPK) model and this model is then used for estimating population PK parameters in human. This approach offers a continuous flow of information from preclinical to clinical studies without the need for different models or model reduction. Additionally, predictions are based upon single parameter values, but making realistic predictions involves incorporating the various sources of variability and uncertainty. Currently, WBPBPK modelling is undertaken as a two-stage process: (i) estimation (optimisation) of drug-dependent parameters by either least squares regression or maximum likelihood and (ii) accounting for the existing parameter variability and uncertainty by stochastic simulation. To address these issues a general Bayesian approach using WinBUGS for estimation of drug-dependent parameters in WBPBPK models is described. Initially applied to data in rat, this approach is further adopted for extrapolation to human, which allows retention of some parameters and updating others with the available human data. While the issues surrounding the incorporation of uncertainty and variability within prediction have been explored within WBPBPK modeling methodology they have equal application to other areas of pharmacokinetics, as well as to pharmacodynamics.

Algorithms↗