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At least 793 records · Page 44Linked to original sources
PubMed1998

The interacting effects of prices and weather on population cycles in a preindustrial community.

The exogenous cycles and population dynamics of the community at Penrith, Cumbria, England, have been studied (1557-1812) using aggregative analysis, family reconstitution and time series analysis. This community was living under marginal conditions for the first 200 years and the evidence presented is of a homeostatic regime where famine, malnutrition and epidemic disease acted to regulate the balance between resources and population size. This provides an ideal historic population for an investigation of the direct and indirect effects of malnutrition. Throughout the period studied, a short wavelength oscillation in grain prices was apparently the major external factor that drove exogenous cycles in mortality, birth rate, and migration. In particular, the different responses of children to variations in food supply are emphasised; fluctuations in poor nutrition correlated significantly with the variations in mortality rates for infants (probably indirectly during pregnancy and directly during the first year of life) and for young children (via susceptibility to lethal infectious diseases). Migratory movements contributed to the maintenance of homeostasis in the population dynamics. A medium wavelength cycle in low winter temperatures was associated with a rise in adult mortality which, in turn, promoted an influx of migrants into this saturated habitat. A model incorporating these interacting associations between vital events and exogenous cycles is presented: grain prices were an important density-dependent factor and constituted the major component of the negative feedback of this population and drove the exogenous, short wavelength mortality cycles. Cycles of births and immigration provide a positive feedback for the build-up of susceptibles and the initiation of smallpox epidemics and increased population size.

Commerce↗
PubMed1989

Effect of weather conditions on acute laryngotracheitis.

The aim of the study was to examine the incidence of croup in the Swansea area and to determine whether meteorological factors have any effect on the incidence of acute laryngotracheitis requiring hospitalization. 447 patients with a diagnosis of acute viral croup were admitted to the Ear, Nose and Throat Department of Singleton Hospital, Swansea, between January 1st 1980 and December 31st 1984. There was no significant difference between days with and without croup admissions, with respect to barometric pressure or relative humidity. Maximum and minimum temperatures were significantly lower on days with croup admissions (p less than 0.001). Wind direction appeared to influence the number of admissions, which were increased when the wind was from the south-east (p less than 0.01).

Acute Disease↗
PubMed1997

Weather conditions and cerebrospinal meningitis in Benin (Gulf of Guinea, West Africa).

Over a 28-year period cerebrospinal meningitis, in sporadic as well as epidemic situations, mainly affected the Beninese territory from November to March, April or sometimes May. On the average, the acme occurred in February-March. A regression analysis confirmed that 14 to 34.5% of the temporal variability of the disease was due to the northern trade wind (harmattan) and a low absolute humidity in the northern areas, which constitute the main epidemiological pole of the country. On the contrary, cerebrospinal meningitis and climate turned out to be fully independent one from the other in the southernmost areas, where the harmattan is seldom experienced although the meningitis belt is at the present time spreading southwards. But the case-fatality ratio was especially high in the coastal region and during the off season, i.e. when endemic meningitis predominantly affected small children aged under one year. In any way, the climate-meningitis relationship proved to be weaker than is sometimes assumed, perhaps because this relationship is partly overshadowed by both anthropic effects (vaccination campaigns) and latency before disease outbreak.

Benin↗
PubMed1985

Air pollution, weather, and violent crimes: concomitant time-series analysis of archival data.

Archival data covering a 2-year period were obtained from three sources in order to assess relations among ozone levels, nine measures of meteorological conditions, day of the week, holidays, seasonal trends, family disturbances, and assaults against persons. Confirming results obtained in laboratory studies, more family disturbances were recorded when ozone levels were high than when they were low. Two-stage regression analyses indicated that disturbances and assaults against persons were also positively correlated with daily temperatures and negatively correlated with wind speed and levels of humidity. Further, distributed lag (Box-Jenkins) analyses indicated that high temperatures and low winds preceded violent episodes, which occurred more often on dry than humid days. In addition to hypothesized relations, it was also found that assaults follow complaints about family disturbances, which suggests that the latter could be used to predict and lessen physical violence. It was concluded that atmospheric conditions and violent episodes are not only correlated but also appear to be linked in a causal fashion. This conclusion, however, was qualified by a discussion of the limitations of archival data and concomitant time-series analysis.

Air Pollution↗