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Option appraisal of population-based colorectal cancer screening programmes in England.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and resource impact of faecal occult blood testing (FOBT) and flexible sigmoidoscopy (FSIG) screening options for colorectal cancer to inform the Department of Health's policy on bowel cancer screening in England. METHODS: We developed a state transition model to simulate the life experience of a cohort of individuals without polyps or cancer through to the development of adenomatous polyps and malignant carcinoma and subsequent death in the general population of England. The costs, effects and resource impact of five screening options were evaluated: (a) FOBT for individuals aged 50-69 (biennial screening); (b) FOBT for individuals aged 60-69 (biennial screening); (c) once-only FSIG for individuals aged 55; (d) once-only FSIG for individuals aged 60; and (e) once-only FSIG for individuals aged 60, followed by FOBT for individuals aged 61-70 (biennial screening). RESULTS: The model suggests that screening using FSIG with or without FOBT may be cost-saving and may produce additional benefits compared with a policy of no screening. The marginal cost-effectiveness of FOBT options compared to a policy of no screening is estimated to be below pound3000 per quality adjusted life year gained. CONCLUSIONS: Screening using FOBT and/or FSIG is potentially a cost-effective strategy for the early detection of colorectal cancer. However, the practical feasibility of alternative screening programmes is inevitably limited by current pressures on endoscopy services.

Age Factors↗

Changing digoxin potency and cardiac mortality in England and Wales 1968-76.

Data on monthly totals of cardiac deaths in England and Wales were examined in different ways to see whether there were any unexplained fluctuations in rates both at the time of an unplanned increase in the bioavailability and therefore the potency of the Lanoxin brand of digoxin in May 1972 and also when there was a coordinated increase in the bioavailability of other brands in October 1975. Despite advice to prescribers, dosages were not proportionately reduced in the 600 000 patients who were on treatment. Monthly totals of deaths from cardiac causes were high through the summer of 1972 but not at the end of 1975 and the excess in 1972 seems to be related to a cold summer. There was no evidence of a consistent or specific effect of changes in digoxin potency, either beneficial or harmful, on deaths from all cardiac causes or in specific subgroups in which digoxin treatment was likely to be most common. Although major changes in digoxin potency in England and Wales did not seem to produce a repeatable effect on death rates, data from other countries should also be examined for evidence of such an effect.

Biological Availability↗

Staffing in cardiology in the United Kingdom 1990. Sixth biennial survey: with data on facilities in cardiology in England and Wales 1989.

The Sixth Biennial Survey of Staffing in Cardiology was conducted in July 1990. This report summarises the data that were collected, together with the results of a survey of facilities in cardiology made in 1989. The total number of cardiologists in the United Kingdom, defined as individuals trained in the specialty and spending at least 40% of their time working in it, is now 323. Six individuals work part time only, making 320 whole time posts. This number has increased over the two years from 1988 to 1990 by 32, of which 23 work only in the specialty and nine as general physicians with a major interest in cardiology. The rate of increase in numbers over the past decade has been reasonably consistent with an average of approximately 4.4% per year. Thirty one districts in England and Wales still have no cardiologist and 13 other districts have little provision with an average of three (visiting) sessions each per week. The population in these 44 districts is 8.3 million. Scotland also has an inadequate distribution of service in the specialty. If recommendations for cardiac surgery and angioplasty made in the Fourth Report of a Joint Cardiology Committee of the Royal College of Physicians of London and the Royal College of Surgeons of England are to be met, we calculate that we need 63 more cardiologists in our major centres. To provide one cardiologist in every district hospital and two for larger districts would require 94 more specialists, making a total shortfall of 157 individuals. We have no excess of senior registrars to provide for a major expansion at consultant level. Time spent within the senior registrar (or academic equivalent) grade has tended steadily to decline and very few now reach the end of their contracts. The need for more individuals to pass through the senior registrar grade will be met in part by a planned reduction in the training period to three years. This will be inadequate, however, because projected retirements show that the number of consultant vacancies will increase sharply from 1997. We believe that additional senior registrar posts must be created if a serious shortfall in service provision by consultants is to be avoided. The provision of non-invasive facilities in cardiology is reasonable. The need for additional equipment for invasive cardiology has not been assessed. The number of physiological measurement technicians varies considerably between regions and is generally inadequate.

Allied Health Personnel↗

Audit of laboratory mycology services for the management of patients with fungal infections in the northwest of England.

BACKGROUND: Fungal infection is increasingly recognised as an important cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in immunocompromised patients. Little information exists on laboratory services available and the methods used by general microbiology laboratories to diagnose these important infections. AIM: To investigate the services microbiology laboratories in northwest England provide towards the diagnosis and management of superficial and deep fungal infections. METHODS: A questionnaire was sent to laboratories to get a holistic view of the support given to clinicians looking after patients with fungal infections. The aim was not to investigate details of each laboratory's standard operating procedures. The completed questionnaires, which formed the basis of this report, were returned by all 21 laboratories which were recruited. This study was conducted between March 2004 and September 2004. RESULTS: Services were provided to District General Hospitals and to six tertiary centres, including eight teaching hospitals by 16 laboratories. Their bed capacity was 250-1300 beds. Total specimens (including bacterial and viral) processed annually were 42 000-500,000 whereas fungal ones were 560-5400. CONCLUSION: In most microbiology laboratories of northwest England, clinicians were aware of the potential of fungal pathogens to cause infections especially in immunocompromised patients. Additional measures such as prolonged incubation of samples were introduced to improve fungal yield from patients at high risk. It is necessary to train and educate laboratory and medical staff about the role of serology and molecular methods in diagnosis and management of patients with fungal infection.

Dermatomycoses↗

Multiple drug resistance in salmonellae in England and Wales: a comparison between 1981 and 1988.

Each year from 1981 through to 1988 the most common serotypes isolated from man in England and Wales and identified at the Division of Enteric Pathogens were S typhimurium, S enteritidis, and S virchow. In 1981 these three serotypes accounted for 45%, 12%, and 7% of isolations. The remaining 35% comprised strains belonging to a further 188 different serotypes, none of which accounted for more than 1% of the total. In 1988 S typhimurium accounted for 24% of isolations, S enteritidis 57%, and S virchow 4%. The remaining 15% comprised strains of a further 184 serotypes. The resistances to the common antimicrobial drugs in non-typhoidal salmonellas isolated in England and Wales in 1981 and 1988 were reported with particular reference to resistance to four or more antimicrobial drugs (multiple resistance). For S typhimurium the overall percentage of resistant strains varied little, but multiple resistance more than doubled from 5% to 12%; in S enteritidis the incidence remained the same. In S virchow the percentages of strains resistant to all the antimicrobial drugs and in particular, to chloramphenicol, streptomycin, trimethoprim and furazolidone, rose from 0.2% to 10.4%. Salmonella enteritis in man is usually a self limiting disease and antimicrobial treatment is seldom required; but should spread beyond the intestine occur, effective antimicrobial treatment is essential. Under these circumstances a knowledge of the likelihood of resistances to commonly available drugs could be of considerable value to the clinician.

Anti-Bacterial Agents↗

Salmonella bacteraemia in England and Wales, 1981-1990.

AIMS: To report the incidence of nontyphoidal salmonellas in England and Wales and identified in the Division of Enteric Pathogens, London between 1981 and 1990. METHODS: Strains were serotyped and phage typed for Salmonella typhimurium, S enteritidis, and S virchow, using established methods. RESULTS: Overall, less than 2% of nontyphoidal salmonellas isolated from humans were from blood culture. The highest numbers of bloodstream isolates were from infections caused by S enteritidis and S typhimurium, but the highest incidence of septicaemias was attributable to infections with S cholerae-suis, S dublin, and S virchow. 2.2% of S typhimurium isolates phage type 204C were from blood culture; likewise, 5.5% of S virchow phage type 19. This could be a cause for concern as most isolates of both these phage types are multiresistant to antimicrobial drugs. CONCLUSIONS: Salmonella septicaemia is rare in England and Wales in other than a few serotypes of limited epidemiological importance.

Bacteremia↗

What is a natural cause of death? A survey of how coroners in England and Wales approach borderline cases.

AIM: Many deaths fall in the "grey" area between those that are clearly natural and those that are unnatural. There are no guidelines to help doctors in dealing with such cases and death certification is often arbitrary and inconsistent. In an attempt to initiate debate on these difficult areas, and with the ultimate aim of achieving national consensus, the views of coroners in England and Wales were sought. METHODS: Sixteen clinical scenarios, with causes of death, were circulated to all coroners in England and Wales. For each case they were asked to provide a verdict, with explanation. The deaths fell into three groups: (1) postoperative, (2) a combination of trauma and natural disease, and (3) infectious disease. RESULTS: Sixty four questionnaires were returned. There was near consensus (> 80% concordance) in only two of the 16 cases. In five, there was no significant agreement between coroners in the verdicts returned ("natural causes" versus "misadventure/accidental"). These included all three cases in which death resulted from a combination of trauma and natural disease (a fall after a grand mal fit; falls resulting in fractures of bones affected by metastatic carcinoma and osteoporosis), bronchopneumonia after hip replacement for osteoarthritis, and new variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. The comments made for each case indicate that the variation between coroners in whether or not to hold an inquest, and the verdict arrived at, reflect the lack of a definition for natural causes, together with differences in the personal attitudes of each coroner. CONCLUSIONS: There is considerable variation in the way in which coroners approach these borderline cases, many of which are common in clinical practice. This study indicates a need for discussion, working towards a national consensus on such issues. It highlights the importance of good communication between coroners and medical staff at a local level.

Adolescent↗

An alternative approach to quantifying and addressing inequity in healthcare provision: access to surgery for lung cancer in the east of England.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Equitable access to healthcare services should be monitored routinely. This study compares provision of surgery for non-small cell lung cancer in the east of England with incidence of non-small cell lung cancer. In addition to conventional comparisons, process control charts are used to identify areas in which access seems to be significantly different from average. DESIGN: Ecological comparison of surgery rates for non-small cell lung cancer between 1998 and 2000 and incidence of non-small cell lung cancer over the same time period. SETTING: Population of Norfolk, Suffolk, Cambridgeshire. PARTICIPANTS: The denominator was the resident population. Numerators were 4092 deaths from non-small cell lung cancer and 387 surgical procedures for lung cancer. MAIN RESULTS: Incidence of non-small cell lung cancer by primary care trust (PCT) does not correlate with surgical procedure rate, in men r = 0.37 (95% confidence intervals -0.14 to 0.72), in women r = 0.07 (95% confidence intervals -0.43 to 0.53). Control charts indicate that the surgery rate is significantly different from average in three PCTs, high in one and low in two others. The optimum surgery rate is unclear but raising it from 9% to a theoretical level of 15% would mean no PCTs have above average rates while six PCTs have rates that are significantly low. CONCLUSIONS: There does not seem to be equity of access to surgery for patients with non-small cell lung cancer in the east of England. Control charts can help both to identify areas where access is particularly high or low, and also to monitor performance against a theoretical optimum surgery rate.

Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung↗

Neighbourhood environment and its association with self rated health: evidence from Scotland and England.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate associations between measures of neighbourhood social and material environment and self rated health. DESIGN: New contextual measures added to cross sectional study of a sample of people from the Health Survey for England and the Scottish Health Survey to provide multilevel data. PARTICIPANTS: 13,899 men and women aged 16 or over for whom data on self rated health were available from the Health Survey for England (years 1994-99) and the Scottish Health Survey (years 1995 and 1998). RESULTS: Fair to very bad self rated health was significantly associated with six neighbourhood attributes: poor physical quality residential environment, left wing political climate, low political engagement, high unemployment, lower access to private transport, and lower transport wealth. Associations were independent of sex, age, social class, and economic activity. Odds ratios were larger for non-employed residents than for employed residents. Self rated health was not significantly associated with five other neighbourhood measures: public recreation facilities, crime, health service provision, access to food shops, or access to banks and buildings societies. CONCLUSIONS: Some, but not all, features of the neighbourhood environment are associated with self rated health and may be indicators of important causal pathways that could provide a focus for public health intervention strategies. Associations were more pronounced for non-employed residents, perhaps because of greater exposure to the local environment compared with employed people. Operationalizing specific measures of the characteristics of local areas hypothesised to be important for living a healthy life provides a more focused approach than general measures of deprivation in the search for area effects.

Adolescent↗

Prevalence of comorbid psychiatric illness and substance misuse in primary care in England and Wales.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To estimate the annual period prevalence of co-occurring psychiatric illness and substance misuse among patients in primary care. DESIGN: Analysis of the general practice research database. SETTING: England and Wales, 1993-1998. PARTICIPANTS: Registered patients at 230 general practices representing 3.1% of the population. A comorbid case was defined as one with both a psychiatric diagnosis and substance misuse diagnosis (not including alcohol or tobacco) within a calendar year. A potentially chronic comorbid case was one that met this definition and, in addition, was treated in subsequent years for either a psychiatric condition or substance misuse. MAIN RESULTS: The annual period prevalence of comorbidity increased from 50/100 000 patient years of exposure (PYE) to 80/100 000 PYE, an increase of 62% during the study period. Rates of comorbid psychoses, comorbid schizophrenia, and comorbid paranoia increased by 147%, 128%, and 144%. The average age of comorbid cases decreased from 38 years to 34 years. Over 80% of comorbid cases were newly diagnosed in each study year, although many are treated in subsequent years for either psychiatric illness or substance misuse. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides data on the nature and extent of comorbidity in primary care in England and Wales. As the comorbidity rate is increasing by about 10% each year, and as comorbid cases are becoming younger, it is probable that the comorbidity rate will have increased beyond the study end point.

Adolescent↗

Environmental equity, air quality, socioeconomic status, and respiratory health: a linkage analysis of routine data from the Health Survey for England.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess relations between socioeconomic status and local air quality, and combined effects on respiratory health, in the context of environmental and health inequality. DESIGN: Data on people taking part in the Health Survey for England were attributed with a small area index of air pollution using annual mean concentrations of nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, benzene, and particulates (PM10). Regression models were used to measure associations between social class, air quality, forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), and self reported asthma. PARTICIPANTS: Participants aged 16-79 in the Health Survey for England 1995, 1996, and 1997. MAIN RESULTS: Urban lower social class households were more likely to be located in areas of poor air quality, but the association in rural areas was, if anything reversed. Low social class and poor air quality were independently associated with decreased lung function (FEV1), but not asthma prevalence, after adjustment for a number of potential confounders. Social class effects were not attenuated by adjustment for air quality. In men, a differential effect of air pollution on FEV1 was found, with its effect in social classes III to V about double that in social classes I and II (p value for interaction = 0.04). This effect modification was not seen for women. CONCLUSIONS: Further evidence of environmental inequity in the UK is provided. The association between FEV1 and local air quality is of similar magnitude to that with social class, and the adverse effects of air pollution seem to be greater in men in lower social classes.

Adolescent↗

Social factors and height of primary schoolchildren in England and Scotland.

In 1972 the height of 7601 children aged five to 11.5 years in England and of 2214 in Scotland was measured. Their parents were asked to complete a questionnaire to provide social and antrhopometric information. A sequence of linear models was fitted to the data to assess the associations between social and biological factors and height. At the time of the study it was found that sibship size, father's social class, and his employment status all had a significant relationship with child's height; however, parents' height and child's birthweight both accounted for relatively more of the variance in child's height than father's social class and employment status. In England, sibship size significantly influenced the height of children of manual workers, but not that of nonmanual workers' children. In Scotland, sibship size was associated with height in all social groups. Surveillance and possibly intervention in a wide range of activities should be directed at socially more deprived groups; for example, in Social Class V, in which there are more large families and unemployment is more common.

Birth Weight↗

THe changing seasonality of infant deaths in England and Wales 1912-78 and its relation to seasonal temperature.

Seasonal variation in the rates of stillbirth, and of deaths under the age of one year, were studied for England and Wales in order to examine (a) changes in the seasonal variation over the years and (b) the correlation between seasonal rates and seasonal temperatures. The quarterly rates of stillbirths were studied for the period 1928-78; and of deaths under the age of one year, in six different age groups, for the period 1912-78. A disappearance of seasonal variation in rates ('deseasonality') occurrred from stillbirths in about 1950, and for neonatal deaths in about 1965. For deaths at 1-2 months a trend towards deseasonality has been apparent since 1955, but there has been no such trends for deaths at 3-11 months of age. In the period before deseasonality, and for the first quarter of the year, there was a high negative correlation between the neonatal death rate and the mean temperature in England and Wales but this correlation fell as the seasonal variation in rates fell. The findings suggest that seasonal variation in the neonatal death rate was closely related to winter temperatures during the period 1921-60. For deaths at 1-11 months old, there has been and still is a relation between temperature and seasonal variation in rates, but the relation was less close than for the neonatal death rate.

England↗

Recent trends in mortality due to testicular cancer in Ireland: a comparison with England and Wales.

In the period 1961-84, the number of deaths in Ireland due to the testis cancer rose by 64%. This was due both to significant male population expansion (25.3%) and to an increased mortality rate. In the 25-34 years age group, one of the groups at highest risk, the mortality rate rose by 123%. In contrast, in England and Wales, although the male population has risen by 8.5% since 1961, the number of deaths has decreased by 17%. This is due to falling mortality rates, for example an 18% decrease in those aged 25-34 years. The highest rate of all occurred in those Irish over 75 years old. The changing Irish trends appear to lag behind those in England and Wales by some decades, and this raises important aetiological considerations.

Adolescent↗

Relation between all cause standardised mortality ratios and two indices of deprivation at regional and district level in England.

The use of mortality data in the form of standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) to measure the need for health care resources in the Resource Allocation Working Party (RAWP) formula in England has been criticised for underestimating the wider effects of adverse socioeconomic conditions on need, particularly in inner city areas. To assess this criticism, we explored the relationships at NHS Regional and District levels in England between two indicators of illness from the 1981 Census, two contrasting indices of deprivation based on the 1981 Census (the Jarman 8 Underprivileged Area (UPA) score and Townsend's Index of Material Deprivation) and their constituent variables, and all cause SMRs for 1982-3. All cause SMRs were highly correlated at Regional and District level with permanent and temporary sickness rates. At Regional level, three of the Thames Regions showed relatively high deprivation scores in relation to their SMRs, in comparison to the remaining Regions where the relative level of deprivation closely matched the Region's mortality ranking. District level analyses of the relations between SMRs and the deprivation indices and their constituent variables showed that the Thames/non-Thames dichotomy was accounted for by the 14 Districts in inner London. These findings suggest that although there may be a prima facie case for including an allowance for deprivation in RAWP, it is still not clear how the deprivation variables available in the Census relate empirically to the need for additional health service resources. The analysis raises questions about the appropriate definition of need in this context and whether the Census is a suitable source for the construction of a deprivation weighting for use in national RAWP.

Community Health Services↗

Risk of death from cardiovascular disease and chronic bronchitis determined by place of birth in England and Wales.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to examine the relation between place of birth within England and Wales and cause of death. DESIGN: The study was a population survey using data provided by the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys which, for a trial period between 1969 and 1972, coded place of birth on death certificates. SETTING: The survey involved almost 2 million people who died in England and Wales between April 1969 and December 1972. MAIN RESULTS: Persons born in northern counties and industrial towns, and in Wales, had increased risk of ischaemic heart disease and stroke, which persisted whether or not they had moved to other parts of the country. A low risk of cardiovascular disease among people born in and around London went with them when they moved. People born in cities and large towns had an increased and persisting risk of chronic bronchitis. CONCLUSIONS: These findings are evidence that past geographical differences in fetal and infant growth, and in exposure to respiratory infection in early childhood, partly determine today's differences in adult death rates.

Bronchitis↗

Ischaemic heart disease in England and Wales around the year 2000.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: The aim was to predict death rates from ischaemic heart disease in England and Wales during the next 20 years. STUDY DESIGN: Age and sex specific death rates for 1968-1987 were used to predict national and regional trends until 2007. SETTING: The nine standard regions of England and Wales. RESULTS: There will be a large fall in deaths from ischaemic heart disease. The fall will be greater in men and women below 65 years of age. There will, however, be a sharp worsening of the north/south divide. The largest fall in any region will be in Wales. CONCLUSION: The campaign to change the national diet should give highest priority to the norther regions. Because infant growth is inversely related to adult risk of ischaemic heart disease, the poor growth of young children in some northern areas is a cause for concern.

Adult↗