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PubMed2001

Dispersion of ventricular depolarization-repolarization: a noninvasive marker for risk stratification in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: We retrospectively investigated the value of clinical and ECG findings as well as QT-QRS dispersion in predicting the risk of sudden death in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC). METHODS AND RESULTS: Duration and interlead variability of the QT interval and QRS complex were measured manually from standard ECGs in 20 sudden death victims with ARVC diagnosed at autopsy (group I), in 20 living ARVC patients with sustained ventricular tachycardia (group II), in 20 living ARVC patients with </=3 consecutive premature ventricular beats (group III), and in 20 control subjects (group IV). QT and QRS dispersions were greater in group I (77.5+/-10.6 ms for QT and 45.7+/-8.1 ms for QRS) compared with group II (64.5+/-13.9 ms for QT [P=0.001] and 33.5+/-8.7 ms for QRS [P=0.0004]) and in group II compared with group III (48+/-8.9 ms for QT [P<0.0001] and 28+/-5.2 ms for QRS [P<0.0001]) and group IV (33.5+/-4.8 ms for QT [P<0.0001] and 18.5+/-3.6 ms for QRS [P<0.0001]). Negative T wave beyond V(1) and syncope were statistically more frequent in group I (P=0.02 and P=0.007, respectively). On multivariate analysis, QRS dispersion remained an independent predictor of sudden death (P<0.0001), followed by syncope (P=0.09). In assessing risk of sudden death, QRS dispersion >/=40 ms had a sensitivity and specificity of 90% and 77%, respectively; QT dispersion >65 ms, 85% and 75%, respectively; negative T wave beyond V(1), 85% and 42%, respectively; and syncope, 40% and 90%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: QRS dispersion (>/=40 ms) was the strongest independent predictor of sudden death in ARVC. Syncope, QT dispersion >65 ms, and negative T wave beyond V(1) refined arrhythmic risk stratification in these patients.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1986

Risk stratification for 1 year survival based on characteristics identified in the early hours of acute myocardial infarction. The Western Washington Intracoronary Streptokinase Trial.

We evaluated the relationship between baseline factors defined at 4.6 +/- 2.1 hr after onset of acute myocardial infarction and 1 year survival in 245 patients entered in the Western Washington Intracoronary Streptokinase Trial. Univariate statistics identified a significant relationship between 10 of these factors and survival. Multivariate analysis identified three factors as being most closely related to survival: (1) left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (p less than .0001), (2) treatment with streptokinase (p = .03), and (3) location of infarction (p = .04). Mathematic models based on this analysis and applied to our patients identified high- and low-risk subgroups for 1 year mortality. Patients receiving standard, not interventional, therapy with anterior infarction and an LVEF of 50% or less and those with inferior infarction and an LVEF of 39% or less comprised the high-risk group. For patients receiving standard therapy, 1 year mortality was 41% in the high-risk group and 4% in the low-risk group. The models illustrated the magnitude of benefit of streptokinase treatment and achievement of complete reperfusion for those at low and high risk. We conclude that LVEF determined in the first hours of acute myocardial infarction is the most important of all baseline factors for prediction of 1 year survival. Mathematic models based on left ventricular function measured as ejection fraction are useful for risk stratification in this setting.

Adult↗
PubMed1991

Heart rate adjustment of exercise-induced ST segment depression. Improved risk stratification in the Framingham Offspring Study.

BACKGROUND: Simple heart rate adjustment of ST segment depression during exercise (delta ST/HR index) and the pattern of ST depression as a function of heart rate during exercise and recovery (the rate-recovery loop) have been shown to improve the ability of the exercise electrocardiogram to detect the presence of coronary heart disease (CHD), but the performance of these methods for the prediction of future coronary events remains to be examined. METHODS AND RESULTS: We compared the delta ST/HR index and the rate-recovery loop with standard electrocardiographic criteria for prediction of CHD events in 3,168 asymptomatic men and women in the Framingham Offspring Study who underwent treadmill exercise electrocardiography and who, at entry, were free of clinical and electrocardiographic evidence of CHD. After a mean follow-up of 4.3 years, there were 65 new CHD events: four sudden deaths, 24 new myocardial infarctions, and 37 incident cases of angina pectoris. When a Cox proportional hazards model with adjustment for age and sex was used, a positive exercise electrocardiogram by standard criteria (greater than or equal to 0.1 mV horizontal or downsloping ST segment depression) was not predictive of new CHD events (chi 2 = 0.40, p = 0.52). In contrast, stratification according to the presence or absence of a positive delta ST/HR index (greater than or equal to 1.6 microV/beat/min) and a positive (counterclockwise) rate-recovery loop was associated with CHD event risk (chi 2 = 9.45, p less than 0.01) and separated subjects into three groups with varying risks of coronary events: high risk, when both tests were positive (relative risk 3.6; 95% confidence interval, 2.4-5.4); intermediate risk, when either the delta ST/HR index or the rate-recovery loop was positive (relative risk, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-2.8); and low risk, when both tests were negative. After multivariate adjustment for age, sex, smoking, total cholesterol level, fasting glucose level, diastolic blood pressure, and electrocardiographic evidence of left ventricular hypertrophy, the combined delta ST/HR index and rate-recovery loop criteria remained predictive of coronary events (chi 2 = 5.45, p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Heart rate adjustment of ST segment depression by the delta ST/HR index and the rate-recovery loop during exercise electrocardiography can improve prediction of future coronary events in asymptomatic men and women.

Adult↗
PubMed1996

Coupling of hemodynamic measurements with oxygen consumption during exercise does not improve risk stratification in patients with heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Measurement of peak Vo2 has become an accepted method to select patients for cardiac transplantation. Some investigators have suggested that the addition of exercise hemodynamic measurements can further enhance risk stratification because these measurements may identify patients with a noncardiac limitation to exercise. METHODS AND RESULTS: Accordingly, we performed maximal bicycle exercise with respiratory gas analysis and hemodynamic measurements in 65 patients (47 men, 18 women) 53 +/- 10 years old (mean +/- SD) who underwent a transplant evaluation at Columbia Presbyterian Medical Center. Skeletal muscle oxygenation of the vastus lateralis during exercise was assessed with near-infrared spectroscopy. Exercise hemodynamic, ventilatory, and muscle oxygenation measurements were obtained in all patients. For each subject, a linear correlation was derived between Vo2 and pulmonary artery saturation (PA Sao2). The slope of this relationship and a theoretical Vo2max at a PA Sao2 of 0% (Vo2 intercept) was derived. Baseline measurements were left ventricular ejection fraction, 22 +/- 9%; pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP), 16 +/- 10 mm Hg; cardiac index (CI), 2.1 +/- 0.5 L. min-1. m-2; and PA Sao2, 53 +/- 8%. The cardiac output response to exercise was categorized as normal or abnormal by comparison to the linear equation of peak Vo2 versus peak cardiac output as described by Higginbotham. Exercise measurements were peak Vo2, 12.1 +/- 3.0 mL.kg-1.min-1; Vo2 intercept, 19.1 +/- 5.5 mL. kg-1.min-1; PCWP, 31 +/- 11 mm Hg; CI, 3.8 +/- 1.3 L.min-1.m-2; and PA Sao2, 27 +/- 9%. Only 6% of patients exhibited a normal cardiac output response to exercise. Multivariate analysis was performed with peak Vo2, Vo2 intercept, skeletal muscle oxygenation at end exercise, and peak exercise hemodynamic variables. Only left ventricular stroke work and left ventricular stroke work index were shown to be predictive of survival. CONCLUSIONS: Addition of exercise hemodynamic measurements to noninvasive metabolic stress testing minimally improves risk prognostication in patients with severe heart failure.

Adult↗
PubMed1997

Dobutamine stress echocardiography for risk stratification after myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Because dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE) provides assessment of left ventricular function and ischemia at a distance, the major determinants of adverse outcome after acute myocardial infarction (AMI), we undertook this study to determine the role of DSE in risk stratification after AMI. METHODS AND RESULTS: A graded DSE in 5-minute stages was performed in 214 patients (age, 57 +/- 13 years [mean +/- SD]) at 2 to 7 days after AMI. Coronary angiography was performed in 193 patients. Follow-up data regarding major cardiac events were obtained through telephone interviews and chart reviews. All patients were followed for > or = 500 days or until a hard cardiac event occurred. The mean follow-up interval was 494 +/- 182 days after AMI. Peak heart rate and systolic blood pressure were 115 +/- 21 bpm and 135 +/- 29 mm Hg, respectively. An adverse outcome occurred in 80 of 214 patients; cardiac death occurred in 15, nonfatal AMI occurred in 15, sustained or symptomatic ventricular arrhythmia occurred in 5, congestive heart failure occurred in 14, and unstable angina occurred in 31. Significant predictors of adverse outcome by univariate analysis were prior myocardial infarction (P = .005), anterior infarction (P = .006), multivessel coronary artery disease (P < .0001), global resting left ventricular wall motion score index (P < .0001), infarction zone nonviability based on akinesis unresponsive to low-dose dobutamine (P < .0001), and ischemia/infarction at a distance (P < .0001). Furthermore, the extent of infarct zone and nonviability correlated with the severity of the cardiac event. Multivariate analysis of clinical, angiographic, and DSE variables revealed that the only independent predictors of adverse outcome were ischemia/infarction at a distance (P < .0001) and infarction zone nonviability (P < .0001). Multivessel disease identified through DSE was more predictive of adverse outcome than was angiographically determined multivessel disease. CONCLUSIONS: DSE can be used to predict adverse outcomes after AMI.

Aged↗
PubMed1997

Cardiac imaging for risk stratification with dobutamine-atropine stress testing in patients with chest pain. Echocardiography, perfusion scintigraphy, or both?

BACKGROUND: Pharmacological stress echocardiography and myocardial perfusion scintigraphy are used frequently for risk stratification in patients with suspected myocardial ischemia. However, their relative prognostic strength has never been explored. METHODS AND RESULTS: Two hundred twenty consecutive patients with chest pain (mean age, 60 +/- 12 years; 124 men, 115 with previous myocardial infarction) were studied with dobutamine-atropine stress echocardiography (ECHO) and simultaneous 99mTc sestamibi single photon emission computed tomography imaging (MIBI). Ischemia was defined as deterioration in left ventricular wall motion and reversible perfusion defects, respectively. ECHO was positive for ischemia in 76 and MIBI in 91 patients (agreement, 77%; kappa = .51). During follow-up of 31 +/- 15 months, 24 patients had hard cardiac events (nonfatal myocardial infarction or cardiac death). By univariate analysis, age, history of congestive heart failure, and any abnormality or ischemia on ECHO or MIBI were associated with cardiac events. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, abnormal ECHO (odds ratio [OR], 18.9; 95% CI, 2.5 to 146.0) or MIBI (OR, 12.8; 95% CI, 1.7 to 98.3), and ischemia on ECHO (OR, 4.0; 95% CI, 1.6 to 9.9) or MIBI (OR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.2 to 7.4) had independent predictive values. When ECHO was used as a first option, the addition of MIBI to all nonischemic ECHO studies decreased the OR from 4.0 (95% CI, 1.6 to 9.9) to 3.8 (95% CI, 1.4 to 10.2). Addition of MIBI confined to nonischemic ECHO studies in which target heart rate was not attained (nondiagnostic studies) increased the OR to a maximal 5.7 (95% CI, 2.2 to 15.0). In contrast, the addition of ECHO to nondiagnostic MIBI studies was not useful. CONCLUSIONS: Dobutamine-atropine ECHO and MIBI provide comparable prognostic information. The addition of MIBI to ECHO may be useful in patients with nondiagnostic ECHO studies.

Aged↗
PubMed1998

Incremental prognostic value of myocardial perfusion single photon emission computed tomography for the prediction of cardiac death: differential stratification for risk of cardiac death and myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: The incremental prognostic value of stress single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) for the prediction of cardiac death as an individual end point and the implications for risk stratification are undefined. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified 5183 consecutive patients who underwent stress/rest SPECT and were followed up for the occurrence of cardiac death or myocardial infarction. Over a mean follow up of 642+/-226 days, 119 cardiac deaths and 158 myocardial infarctions occurred (3.0% cardiac death rate, 2.3% myocardial infarction rate). Patients with normal scans were at low risk (< or =0.5%/y), and rates of both outcomes increased significantly with worsening scan abnormalities. Patients who underwent exercise stress and had mildly abnormal scans had low rates of cardiac death but higher rates of myocardial infarction (0.7%/y versus 2.6%/y; P<.05). After adjustment for prescan information, scan results provided incremental prognostic value toward the prediction of cardiac death. The identification of patients at intermediate risk of nonfatal myocardial infarction and low risk for cardiac death by SPECT may result in significant cost savings when applied to a clinical testing strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Myocardial perfusion SPECT yields incremental prognostic information toward the identification of cardiac death. Patients with mildly abnormal scans after exercise stress are at low risk for cardiac death but intermediate risk for nonfatal myocardial infarction and thus may benefit from a noninvasive strategy and may not require invasive management.

Adenosine↗
PubMed1998

Very early risk stratification using combined ECG and biochemical assessment in patients with unstable coronary artery disease (A thrombin inhibition in myocardial ischemia [TRIM] substudy). The TRIM Study Group.

BACKGROUND: The diagnostic capability of troponin T (TnT), troponin I (TnI), myoglobin, and creatine kinase (CK)-MB mass for detection of myocardial injury seems evident. Newer studies have found these sensitive markers to carry independent prognostic information in patients with unstable coronary artery disease as well. ST-segment depression in the admission ECG is known to be an important indicator of poor outcome in these patients. The present study investigates the prognostic capacities of the ECG in combination with biochemical admission measurements in 516 patients admitted to hospital with unstable coronary artery disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: Baseline ECG recordings and blood samples were collected for central analysis. The patients were followed up for 30 days, and predefined end points, ie, death, myocardial infarction, and refractory angina, were registered as end points. By univariate analysis, ST-segment depression, inverted T waves in >/=5 leads, TnT >/=0.1 microg/L, TnI >/=0.5 microg/L, myoglobin >/=40 microg/L, female sex, and age >/=65 years were predictors of death and myocardial infarction at 30 days. By multivariate analysis, female sex, ST-segment depression at randomization, or inverted T-waves in >/=5 leads were the only independent predictors of death or myocardial infarction. On the basis of baseline ECG ST-T changes and CK-MB mass/TnT/TnI/myoglobin levels, the patients were divided into 3 subgroups at high (14% event rate), intermediate (6%), and low (3%) risk of early death/myocardial infarction. CONCLUSIONS: The present study found the combination of baseline values of TnT, TnI, CK-MB mass, and ST-T changes in the ECG to be effective for early risk stratification in patients with unstable coronary artery disease.

Adult↗
PubMed2000

Long-term absolute benefit of lowering blood pressure in hypertensive patients according to the JNC VI risk stratification.

Blood pressure (BP) levels alone have been traditionally used to make treatment decisions in patients with hypertension. The sixth report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure (JNC VI) recently recommended that risk strata, in addition to BP levels, be considered in the treatment of hypertension. We estimated the absolute benefit associated with a 12 mm Hg reduction in systolic BP over 10 years according to the risk stratification system of JNC VI using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Epidemiologic Follow-up Study. The number-needed-to-treat to prevent a cardiovascular event/death or a death from all causes was reduced with increasing levels of baseline BP in each of the risk strata. In addition, the number-needed-to-treat was much smaller in persons with > or =1 additional major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (risk group B) and in those with a history of cardiovascular disease or target organ damage (risk group C) than in those without additional major risk factors for cardiovascular disease (risk group A). Specifically, the number-needed-to-treat to prevent a death from all causes in patients with a high-normal BP, stage 1 hypertension, or stage 2 or 3 hypertension was, respectively, 81, 60, and 23 for those in risk group A; 19, 16, and 9 for those in risk group B; and 14, 12, and 9 for those in risk group C. Our analysis indicated that the absolute benefits of antihypertensive therapy depended on BP as well as the presence or absence of additional cardiovascular disease risk factors and the presence or absence of preexisting clinical cardiovascular disease or target organ damage.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide or troponin testing followed by echocardiography for risk stratification of acute pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and N-terminal (NT)-proBNP have recently emerged as promising parameters for risk assessment in acute pulmonary embolism (PE). However, their positive predictive value is low, and the prognostic implications of NT-proBNP or troponin elevation alone are questionable. METHODS AND RESULTS: To determine whether the combination of NT-proBNP testing with echocardiography may identify both low-risk and high-risk patients with PE, we examined 124 consecutive patients with proved PE. All underwent echocardiography on admission to detect right ventricular dysfunction. NT-proBNP and troponin concentrations were measured in one core laboratory. The primary end point was death or major in-hospital complications. The cutoff level of 1000 pg/mL had a high negative predictive value (95% for a complicated course, 100% for death), but NT-proBNP > or =1000 pg/mL did not independently predict an adverse outcome. Combination of NT-proBNP testing with echocardiography identified 3 major risk groups. A positive echocardiogram was associated with a 12-fold elevation in complication risk compared with patients with low NT-proBNP (P=0.002), whereas NT-proBNP elevation without right ventricular dysfunction on echocardiography only slightly increased the risk of an adverse outcome (P=0.17). The combination of cardiac troponin testing with echocardiography yielded similar complication rates in the lowest-risk group and a similar magnitude of risk elevation for the highest-risk patients, but it also increased the number of intermediate-risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support a simple risk stratification algorithm for patients with PE, with the use of NT-proBNP or troponin testing as an initial step that should be followed by echocardiography if elevated levels of the biomarker are found.

Acute Disease↗
PubMed2005

Simple risk stratification at admission to identify patients with reduced mortality from primary angioplasty.

BACKGROUND: Randomized trials comparing fibrinolysis with primary angioplasty for acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction have demonstrated a beneficial effect of primary angioplasty on the combined end point of death, reinfarction, and disabling stroke but not on all-cause death. Identifying a patient group with reduced mortality from an invasive strategy would be important for early triage. The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score is a simple validated integer score that makes it possible to identify high-risk patients on admission to hospital. We hypothesized that a high-risk group might have a reduced mortality with an invasive strategy. METHODS AND RESULTS: We classified 1527 patients from the Danish Multicenter Randomized Study on Fibrinolytic Therapy Versus Acute Coronary Angioplasty in Acute Myocardial Infarction (DANAMI-2) trial with information for all variables necessary for calculating the TIMI risk score as low risk (TIMI risk score, 0 to 4) or high risk (TIMI risk score > or =5) and investigated the effect of primary angioplasty versus fibrinolysis on mortality and morbidity in the 2 groups. Follow-up was 3 years. We classified 1134 patients as low risk and 393 as high risk. There was a significant interaction between risk status and effect of primary angioplasty (P=0.008). In the low-risk group, there was no difference in mortality (primary angioplasty, 8.0%; fibrinolysis, 5.6%; P=0.11); in the high-risk group, there was a significant reduction in mortality with primary angioplasty (25.3% versus 36.2%; P=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Risk stratification at admission based on the TIMI risk score identifies a group of high-risk patients who have a significantly reduced mortality with an invasive strategy of primary angioplasty.

Aged↗
PubMed1990

Echocardiographic score versus wall motion index for risk stratification after acute myocardial infarction.

Two-dimensional echo cardiographic wall motion scores are potentially valuable prognostic indicators because of their association with subsequent mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction. Because wall motion scores are relatively simple to obtain, they could come into widespread use. But wall motion scores have been found to have a low positive predictive accuracy in respect to one- or three-year survival and a low specificity in respect to pump failure. To clarify the value of wall motion scores in risk stratification the authors analyzed the ability of a wall motion index, in combination with other variables, to predict death within a year of acute myocardial infarction. Patients were 149 consecutive men with acute myocardial infarction. There were no exclusion criteria. By Cox regression, the variables most closely related to survival were the presence of a pericardial effusion, the age of the patient, alcoholism, and the E point septal separation. The wall motion index, by comparison, was only weakly related to survival and was therefore dropped from further analyses. The four variables most closely related to survival were then used to derive a predictive echocardiographic score. The score's negative predictive accuracy was 94%, although sensitivity and positive predictive accuracy were low. These data suggest that, even when applied nonselectively, the echocardiographic score, but not the wall motion index, appears to be an efficient way of characterizing the outcome of acute myocardial infarction, in that it reliably detects low-risk patients.

Echocardiography↗
PubMed1998

Risk stratification after myocardial infarction in Scotland.

The objective was to determine how patients are selected for invasive investigation after myocardial infarction in Scotland. Cardiologists in Scotland were surveyed by postal questionnaire asking them to detail their approach to four sample clinical scenarios. Complete responses were obtained from 82% of those surveyed. Substantial differences in practice were observed in the management of subjects with non-Q wave myocardial infarction. Of the cardiologists surveyed 40% would undertake coronary angiography irrespective of the results of non-invasive testing in a 45 year old patient, but only one would adopt the same policy in an otherwise fit 77 year old. Only 44% would perform any investigations (beyond echocardiography) in the 77 year old. A minority of respondents felt that their practice was influenced by resource limitation. Considerable variation continues to exist in the approach to risk stratification after myocardial infarction for some groups of patients. This variation may occur principally as a consequence of physician preference.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Do psychological characteristics explain socioeconomic stratification of self-rated health?

This study evaluated whether negative emotions explain socioeconomic status (SES) stratification of self-rated health (SRH) and whether this putative relation is independent of established SRH determinants. Mood disorders, trait negative affect and health status indices were assessed in a representative cross-sectional survey of 3032 adults in the National Survey of Midlife Development in the United States (MIDUS). Adjustment for health behaviors and health status appreciably reduced SES influence on SRH, but adjustment for negative emotions did not. However, both psychological resources (e.g. social support, extraversion) and negative emotions independently predicted SRH. Detection of SRH determinants was sensitive to binary versus ordinal SRH definitions.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

A staged screening strategy for prenatal alcohol exposure and maternal risk stratification.

AIMS: To present an incremental process for a staged screening strategy to identify women at increased risk of having a child with fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD) and to enhance the management of women using alcohol during pregnancy. We include an illustrative example of the development of a screening component using an existing data set. METHODS: We describe a seven-step protocol to screen for alcohol use during pregnancy. The screening process begins with a one-question initial screen, followed by exposure assessment, maternal risk stratification to estimate risk for FASD, and concludes with recommendations for intervention and monitoring of exposure for women drinking during pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: This screening process has very modest time commitments in the early stages. Time commitments increase for women drinking during pregnancy and the process focuses on the population at highest risk of having a child with FASD. The process has the benefit of risk specificity, since the process refines risk estimates for an adverse outcome specific for FASD. The process concludes with a programme to facilitate intervention and to monitor changes in prenatal alcohol exposure during pregnancy. Prevention of FASD is an important public health priority. In addition to the ongoing study of clinical strategies to improve detection rates of alcohol exposure at all stages of pregnancy, additional research on the tools and the process used in screening efforts is urgently needed. The efforts should also include research on both the screening tools and the outcome of the screening process in routine prenatal care settings.

Alcohol Drinking↗
PubMedDate not supplied

The value of pretreatment clinical and biochemical parameters in staging and prognostic stratification of patients with newly diagnosed prostate carcinoma.

PURPOSE: To determine whether it is possible to select patients in whom and for what reason bone scintigraphy should be performed or not, a retrospective study was performed of 161 consecutive patients with newly diagnosed prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Follow-up varied from 1 to 88 months during which 67 patients died. Bone scans were classified from 0 (= normal) to 3 (typical pattern of metastases) and were correlated with age, alkaline phosphatase (AP), prostate specific antigen (PSA), tumor grade, TNM-stage and survival. For survival, 68 patients who were not referred for bone scintigraphy were also evaluated. RESULTS: All parameters demonstrated a correlation with the incidence of a positive bone scan, but PSA was the best overall predictor in this (p < 0.0001). None of the patients with PSA < or = 20 ng/ml (n = 64) showed metastases, whereas 8 of 9 patients with PSA > 1000 ng/ml and patients with PSA values between 20 and 1000 ng/ml in combination with AP > 90 U/L (n = 24) had bone metastases. Furthermore, a class 3 bone scan was found to be the most important parameter in assessing prognosis and survival (p < 0.0001), whereas no differences were found in patients with a class 0, 1 and 2 scintigram. CONCLUSIONS: For staging and prognostic stratification purposes, bone scintigraphy and additional roentgenograms are of value in a selected group of patients. In contrast with a typical pattern of metastases on bone scintigraphy, an abnormal scan (class 1 and 2) at the time of diagnosis is not a poor prognostic parameter of the risk of death. Bone scintigraphy can be omitted in patients with PSA values < 20 ng/ml. In patients with PSA levels > 1000 ng/ml or less increased levels combined with alkaline phosphatase levels > 90 U/L, bone scintigraphy seems to be of no value in staging disease.

Aged↗
PubMed1999

Factors in cardiac risk stratification of candidates for renal transplant.

BACKGROUND: Renal transplant candidates are at high risk of fatal and nonfatal cardiac events. METHODS: This study evaluated five clinical risk factors--age at least 50 years, insulin-requiring diabetes mellitus, angina, congestive heart failure and an abnormal electrocardiogram (ECG) (excluding left ventricular hypertrophy)--that had been used in the first tier of a two-tiered prospectively applied risk stratification algorithm. RESULTS: Using multiple logistic regression analysis, age at least 50 years, abnormal ECG, and diabetes mellitus were independently predictive of cardiac death. Of the two remaining clinical risk factors, the presence of angina had independent predictive value for nonfatal cardiac events (myocardial infarction, coronary angioplasty, bypass surgery, and unstable angina). The independent predictive value of congestive heart failure approached statistical significance. CONCLUSION: Clinical risk-factor analysis is helpful in identifying renal transplant candidates at high risk for fatal or nonfatal cardiac events.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2003

Contribution of beta-2 microglobulin levels to the prognostic stratification of survival in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS).

Prospective analysis of the importance of the plasma levels of beta-2 microglobulin (B2M) in 553 patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) found that B2M is an independent prognostic variable for survival with weighted significance second only to the karyotype. The incorporation of the B2M covariate into risk assessment of MDS patients added significantly to the power of the IPSS to stratify MDS patients into risk categories. Our results further document that the 2 objectively measured covariates that display the highest power to predict survival, that is, karyotype and B2M, can alone be used for risk stratification. While the results must be verified in an independent and comparable population, our data strongly recommend routine measurement of B2M in patients with MDS.

Female↗