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Comparison of bootstrap approaches for estimation of uncertainties of DTI parameters.

Bootstrap is an empirical non-parametric statistical technique based on data resampling that has been used to quantify uncertainties of diffusion tensor MRI (DTI) parameters, useful in tractography and in assessing DTI methods. The current bootstrap method (repetition bootstrap) used for DTI analysis performs resampling within the data sharing common diffusion gradients, requiring multiple acquisitions for each diffusion gradient. Recently, wild bootstrap was proposed that can be applied without multiple acquisitions. In this paper, two new approaches are introduced called residual bootstrap and repetition bootknife. We show that repetition bootknife corrects for the large bias present in the repetition bootstrap method and, therefore, better estimates the standard errors. Like wild bootstrap, residual bootstrap is applicable to single acquisition scheme, and both are based on regression residuals (called model-based resampling). Residual bootstrap is based on the assumption that non-constant variance of measured diffusion-attenuated signals can be modeled, which is actually the assumption behind the widely used weighted least squares solution of diffusion tensor. The performances of these bootstrap approaches were compared in terms of bias, variance, and overall error of bootstrap-estimated standard error by Monte Carlo simulation. We demonstrate that residual bootstrap has smaller biases and overall errors, which enables estimation of uncertainties with higher accuracy. Understanding the properties of these bootstrap procedures will help us to choose the optimal approach for estimating uncertainties that can benefit hypothesis testing based on DTI parameters, probabilistic fiber tracking, and optimizing DTI methods.

Brain↗

Stochastic modelling of landfill processes incorporating waste heterogeneity and data uncertainty.

A landfill is a very complex heterogeneous environment and as such it presents many modelling challenges. Attempts to develop models that reproduce these complexities generally involve the use of large numbers of spatially dependent parameters that cannot be properly characterised in the face of data uncertainty. An alternative method is presented, which couples a simplified microbial degradation model with a stochastic hydrological and contaminant transport model. This provides a framework for incorporating the complex effects of spatial heterogeneity within the landfill in a simplified manner, along with other key variables. A methodology for handling data uncertainty is also integrated into the model structure. Illustrative examples of the model's output are presented to demonstrate effects of data uncertainty on leachate composition and gas volume prediction.

Environmental Pollutants↗

Decision making under internal uncertainty: the case of multiple-choice tests with different scoring rules.

This paper assesses framing effects on decision making with internal uncertainty, i.e., partial knowledge, by focusing on examinees' behavior in multiple-choice (MC) tests with different scoring rules. In two experiments participants answered a general-knowledge MC test that consisted of 34 solvable and 6 unsolvable items. Experiment 1 studied two scoring rules involving Positive (only gains) and Negative (only losses) scores. Although answering all items was the dominating strategy for both rules, the results revealed a greater tendency to answer under the Negative scoring rule. These results are in line with the predictions derived from Prospect Theory (PT) [Econometrica 47 (1979) 263]. The second experiment studied two scoring rules, which allowed respondents to exhibit partial knowledge. Under the Inclusion-scoring rule the respondents mark all answers that could be correct, and under the Exclusion-scoring rule they exclude all answers that might be incorrect. As predicted by PT, respondents took more risks under the Inclusion rule than under the Exclusion rule. The results illustrate that the basic process that underlies choice behavior under internal uncertainty and especially the effect of framing is similar to the process of choice under external uncertainty and can be described quite accurately by PT.

Choice Behavior↗

A general model for the propagation of uncertainty in measurements into heat transfer simulations and its application to cryosurgery.

This report presents a technique for estimating the propagation of uncertainty in measurements into mathematical simulations of heat transfer. The motivation for this report is to show the dramatic uncertainty associated with estimating the value of the so-called "lethal temperature," even in a case where a perfect correlation appears to exist between histo-pathologic observations and a corresponding heat transfer simulation. Although the example presented in this report relates to cryosurgery, the technique proposed in this report is rather general and can be applied to any heat transfer problem. The uncertainty analysis presented in this report can be considered as an extension of the well-known concept of the rule of the square root of the sum of the square errors. A comparison of the new technique with the worst case scenario concept is also presented. In conclusion, it is recommended that the proposed technique be routinely applied when presenting simulated results, whether as a part of a theoretical study, or in comparison with experimental data.

Animals↗

Monitoring of pesticides in drinking and related waters in NE Spain with a multiresidue SPE-GC-MS method including an estimation of the uncertainty of the analytical results.

A new method, developed in an EC project (SMT4-CT96-2142) for the determination of 22 pesticides in drinking and related waters, has been used to analyze source and drinking water samples in the area of Barcelona (NE Spain). The procedure includes solid-phase extraction of water and subsequent analysis by GC-MS using few selected ions (SIR) in order to increase their sensitivity. The method was subjected to intra and interlaboratory tests and met the requirements of the EC Directive in terms of accuracy, precision and detection limit (0.025 microg/l range in water samples). A detailed analysis of the uncertainty sources of this method is included, which allows to estimate expanded uncertainties in the 10-20% range. The dominant sources of uncertainty are the solid-phase extraction procedure and the chromatographic quantification. Two triazine compounds, simazine and atrazine, are the main pesticides detected in wells of the Llobregat river and in water of the Ter river, respectively.

Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry↗

Interlaboratory study of a liquid chromatography method for erythromycin: determination of uncertainty.

Erythromycin is a mixture of macrolide antibiotics produced by Saccharopolyspora erythreas during fermentation. A new method for the analysis of erythromycin by liquid chromatography has previously been developed. It makes use of an Astec C18 polymeric column. After validation in one laboratory, the method was now validated in an interlaboratory study. Validation studies are commonly used to test the fitness of the analytical method prior to its use for routine quality testing. The data derived in the interlaboratory study can be used to make an uncertainty statement as well. The relationship between validation and uncertainty statement is not clear for many analysts and there is a need to show how the existing data, derived during validation, can be used in practice. Eight laboratories participated in this interlaboratory study. The set-up allowed the determination of the repeatability variance, s(2)r and the between-laboratory variance, s(2)L. Combination of s(2)r and s(2)L results in the reproducibility variance s(2)R. It has been shown how these data can be used in future by a single laboratory that wants to make an uncertainty statement concerning the same analysis.

Anti-Bacterial Agents↗

Contour integration in strabismic amblyopia: the sufficiency of an explanation based on positional uncertainty.

Contour integration was measured in a group of strabismic amblyopes to determine if an explanation based solely on positional uncertainty was sufficient to explain performance. The task involved the detection of paths composed of micropatterns with correlated carrier orientations embedded in a field of similar micropatterns of random position and orientation (Field et al. Contour integration by the human visual system; Evidence for a local "association field". Vision Research, 33, 173-193, 1993). The intrinsic positional uncertainty for each amblyopic eye was measured with the same stimulus and it was found that in 10 out of our 11 amblyopic subjects, the reduced performance of the amblyopic eye could be modelled by the normal eye with an equivalent amount of positional uncertainty added to the stimulus. We conclude that the rules by which cellular outputs are combined, at least as reflected by this task, are normal in amblyopia.

Amblyopia↗

Priority assessment of toxic substances in life cycle assessment. Part II: assessing parameter uncertainty and human variability in the calculation of toxicity potentials.

Toxicity potentials are standard values used in life cycle assessment (LCA) to enable a comparison of toxic impacts between substances. This paper presents the results of an uncertainty assessment of toxicity potentials that were calculated with the global nested multi-media fate, exposure and effects model USES-LCA. The variance in toxicity potentials resulting from input parameter uncertainties and human variability was quantified by means of Monte Carlo analysis with Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS). For Atrazine, 2,3,7,8-TCDD and Lead, variation, expressed by the ratio of the 97.5%-ile and the 2.5%-ile, ranges from about 1.5 to 6 orders of magnitude. The major part of this variation originates from a limited set of substance-specific input parameters, i.e. parameters that describe transport mechanisms, substance degradation, indirect exposure routes and no-effect concentrations. Considerable correlations were found between the toxicity potentials of one substance, in particular within one impact category. The uncertainties and correlations reported in the present study may have a significant impact on the outcome of LCA case studies.

Environmental Exposure↗

Uncertainties and novel prospects in the study of the soil carbon dynamics.

Establishment of the Kyoto Protocol has resulted in an effort to look towards living biomass and soils for carbon sequestration. In order for carbon credits to be meaningful, sustained carbon sequestration for decades or longer is required. It has been speculated that improved land management could result in sequestration of a substantial amount of carbon in soils within several decades and therefore can be an important option in reducing atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, evaluation of soil carbon sources and sinks is difficult because the dynamics of soil carbon storage and release is complex and still not well understood. There has been rapid development of quantitative techniques over the past two decades for measuring the component fluxes of the global carbon cycle and for studying the soil carbon cycle. Most significant development in the soil carbon cycle study is the application of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) in radiocarbon measurements. This has made it possible to unravel rates of carbon cycling in soils, by studying natural levels of radiocarbon in soil organic matter and soil CO2. Despite the advances in the study of the soil carbon cycle in the recent decades, tremendous uncertainties exist in the sizes and turnover times of soil carbon pools. The uncertainties result from lack of standard methods and incomplete understanding of soil organic carbon dynamics, compounded by natural variability in soil carbon and carbon isotopic content even within the same ecosystem. Many fundamental questions concerning the dynamics of the soil carbon cycle have yet to be answered. This paper reviews and synthesizes the isotopic approaches to the study of the soil carbon cycle. We will focus on uncertainties and limitations associated with these approaches and point out areas where more research is needed to improve our understanding of this important component of the global carbon cycle.

Carbon↗

Geographical scenario uncertainty in generic fate and exposure factors of toxic pollutants for life-cycle impact assessment.

In environmental life-cycle assessments (LCA), fate and exposure factors account for the general fate and exposure properties of chemicals under generic environmental conditions by means of 'evaluative' multi-media fate and exposure box models. To assess the effect of using different generic environmental conditions, fate and exposure factors of chemicals emitted under typical conditions of (1). Western Europe, (2). Australia and (3). the United States of America were compared with the multi-media fate and exposure box model USES-LCA. Comparing the results of the three evaluative environments, it was found that the uncertainty in fate and exposure factors for ecosystems and humans due to choice of an evaluative environment, as represented by the ratio of the 97.5th and 50th percentile, is between a factor 2 and 10. Particularly, fate and exposure factors of emissions causing effects in fresh water ecosystems and effects on human health have relatively high uncertainty. This uncertainty is mainly caused by the continental difference in the average soil erosion rate, the dimensions of the fresh water and agricultural soil compartment, and the fraction of drinking water coming from ground water.

Australia↗

Geometrical uncertainties, radiotherapy planning margins, and the ICRU-62 report.

In this paper, we elaborate on the proposals in the ICRU-62 report concerning planning target volume (PTV) margins for geometrical uncertainties during radiotherapy, such as variations in patient set-up and internal organ motion. According to the ICRU, these margins should be such that the planned dose in the PTV is representative of the real dose in the 'moving' clinical target volume (CTV). We demonstrate that the dosimetrical consequences of systematic and random geometrical uncertainties are fundamentally different, which should be reflected in margin calculations. The recommendation in the ICRU-62 report, to quadratically add standard deviations for systematic (Sigma(tot)) and random (sigma(tot)) errors to determine an overall standard deviation for margin calculations, is therefore generally not valid. Instead, a previously published recipe for PTV margin calculation, M = 2Sigma(tot) + 0.7sigma(tot), does indeed account for the different impact of systematic and random errors on the dose in the CTV. If, for both random and systematic uncertainties, the internal and external errors are uncorrelated and quantified by the standard deviations sigma(int), sigma(ext), Sigma(int), Sigma(ext), then Sigma(tot) = square root (Sigma(int)(2) + Sigma(ext)(2)) and sigma(tot) = square root (sigma(int)(2) + sigma(ext)(2)). If the PTV margin thus acquired is deliberately reduced to spare normal tissues, the planned PTV dose is not representative of the CTV anymore. Therefore, we recommend to also report the minimum dose in the volume originally defined by the recipe (designated RTV, i.e. representative target volume).

Humans↗

Uncertainty analysis of the external gamma-dose rate due to the variability of the vertical distribution of 137Cs in the soil.

The external gamma-dose rate at 1 m height above a flat area due to the presence of fallout radiocesium in the soil is frequently calculated from the observed depth profile of the 137Cs activity as well as the soil mass per unit area. At a given site, these depth profiles may, however, vary considerably, thus introducing an uncertainty to the external gamma-dose calculated in this way. To assess this source of uncertainty for a typical grassland site, the activity of Chernobyl-derived 137Cs and the wet bulk density in the three upper soil layers at 100 plots in a 100 m x 100 m pasture were determined. Analysis of these data shows that the frequency distribution of the dose rates calculated from the corresponding depth profiles of all plots is similar to a log-normal distribution (mean 25 nGy h-1, median 22 nGy h-1, standard deviation 11 nGy h-1; range 1.6-56 nGy h-1). The various sources which contribute to the uncertainty of the dose rate are quantified. The semi-variogram indicates that any spatial dependence of the dose rates occurs on this pasture only over distances that are smaller than the shortest sampling interval (here about 10 m). It is estimated which errors have to be expected for the median dose rate when the depth profiles of 137Cs and of the wet bulk density are determined only for a small number of plots. It is preferable to calculate the mean dose rate as a mean from the n individual dose rates rather than from an averaged 137Cs depth profile of the n plots.

Agriculture↗

Simulating uncertainty in climate-pest models with fuzzy numbers.

Inputs in climate-pest models are commonly expressed as point estimates ('crisp' numbers), which implies perfect knowledge of the system in study. In reality, however, all model inputs harbor some level of uncertainty. This is particularly true for climate change impact assessments where the inputs (i.e., climate projections) are highly uncertain. In this study, uncertainties in climate projections were expressed as 'fuzzy' numbers; these are uncertain numbers for which one knows that there is a range of possible values and that some values are 'more possible' than others. A generic pest risk model incorporating the combined effects of temperature, soil moisture, and cold stress was implemented in a fuzzy spreadsheet environment and run with three climate scenarios: (1) present climate (control run); (2) crisp climate change; and (3) fuzzy climate change. Under the crisp climate change scenario, winter and summer temperatures and precipitation were altered using best estimates (averaged predictions from the 1995 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]). Under the fuzzy scenario, climate changes were expressed as triangular fuzzy numbers, utilizing the extremes (lowest and highest predictions from the IPCC report) in addition to the best estimates. Under each scenario, environmental favorability was calculated for six locations in two geographical regions (Central North America and Southern Europe) with two hypothetical pest species having temperate or mediterranean climate requirements. Simulations with the crisp climate change scenario suggested only minor changes in overall environmental favorability compared with the control run. When simulations were conducted with the fuzzy climate change scenario, however, important changes in environmental favorability emerged, particularly in Southern Europe. In that region, the possibility of considerably increased winter precipitation led to increased values of environmental favorability. However, the simulations also showed that this result harbored a very broad range of possible outcomes. The results support the notion that uncertainty in climate change projections must be reduced before reliable impact assessments can be achieved.

Journal Article↗

Effects of aquifer heterogeneity and reaction mechanism uncertainty on a reactive barrier.

This paper addresses impacts of aquifer heterogeneity and reaction mechanism uncertainty on permeable reactive barrier (PRB) performance and describes modeling tools and preliminary guidelines for risk-based design of reactive barriers at heterogeneous sites. A braided stream aquifer was generated stochastically, using a fixed correlation structure and four levels of variability in the hydraulic conductivity field. A vertical, homogeneous barrier was placed in the aquifer. Based on a deterministic design, the size of the PRB for uniform conditions was considered conservative (factor of safety=3.3). Monte Carlo simulation was used to model cis 1,2-DCE reduction by iron metal with uncertainty in the reaction mechanism rate constants. These results were combined with flow and particle tracking results to predict the spatial distribution and flow-averaged concentrations of cis 1,2-DCE and vinyl chloride at the exit face of the PRB. Evaluated on a risk basis, the deterministic design method was found to be unconservative for more heterogeneous aquifers. Uncertainty in the reaction mechanism accentuated the negative effects of aquifer heterogeneity. Several compensating factors that may reduce the vulnerability of reactive barriers to aquifer heterogeneity are discussed.

Carcinogens↗

Calculation of the uncertainty in complication probability for various dose-response models, applied to the parotid gland.

PURPOSE: Usually, models that predict normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) are fitted to clinical data with the maximum likelihood (ML) method. This method inevitably causes a loss of information contained in the data. In this study, an alternative method is investigated that calculates the parameter probability distribution (PD), and, thus, conserves all information. The PD method also allows the calculation of the uncertainty in the NTCP, which is an (often-neglected) prerequisite for the intercomparison of both treatment plans and NTCP models. The PD and ML methods are applied to parotid gland data, and the results are compared. METHODS AND MATERIALS: The drop in salivary flow due to radiotherapy was measured in 25 parotid glands of 15 patients. Together with the parotid gland dose-volume histograms (DVH), this enabled the calculation of the parameter PDs for three different NTCP models (Lyman, relative seriality, and critical volume). From these PDs, the NTCP and its uncertainty could be calculated for arbitrary parotid gland DVHs. ML parameters and resulting NTCP values were calculated also. RESULTS: All models fitted equally well. The parameter PDs turned out to have nonnormal shapes and long tails. The NTCP predictions of the ML and PD method usually differed considerably, depending on the NTCP model and the nature of irradiation. NTCP curves and ML parameters suggested a highly parallel organization of the parotid gland. CONCLUSIONS: Considering the substantial differences between the NTCP predictions of the ML and PD method, the use of the PD method is preferred, because this is the only method that takes all information contained in the clinical data into account. Furthermore, PD method gives a true measure of the uncertainty in the NTCP.

Confidence Intervals↗

Inclusion of geometrical uncertainties in radiotherapy treatment planning by means of coverage probability.

PURPOSE: Following the ICRU-50 recommendations, geometrical uncertainties in tumor position during radiotherapy treatments are generally included in the treatment planning by adding a margin to the clinical target volume (CTV) to yield the planning target volume (PTV). We have developed a method for automatic calculation of this margin. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Geometrical uncertainties of a specific patient group can normally be characterized by the standard deviation of the distribution of systematic deviations in the patient group (Sigma) and by the average standard deviation of the distribution of random deviations (sigma). The CTV of a patient to be planned can be represented in a 3D matrix in the treatment room coordinate system with voxel values one inside and zero outside the CTV. Convolution of this matrix with the appropriate probability distributions for translations and rotations yields a matrix with coverage probabilities (CPs) which is defined as the probability for each point to be covered by the CTV. The PTV can then be chosen as a volume corresponding to a certain iso-probability level. Separate calculations are performed for systematic and random deviations. Iso-probability volumes are selected in such a way that a high percentage of the CTV volume (on average > 99%) receives a high dose (> 95%). The consequences of systematic deviations on the dose distribution in the CTV can be estimated by calculation of dose histograms of the CP matrix for systematic deviations, resulting in a so-called dose probability histogram (DPH). A DPH represents the average dose volume histogram (DVH) for all systematic deviations in the patient group. The consequences of random deviations can be calculated by convolution of the dose distribution with the probability distributions for random deviations. Using the convolved dose matrix in the DPH calculation yields full information about the influence of geometrical uncertainties on the dose in the CTV. RESULTS: The model is demonstrated to be fast and accurate for a prostate, cervix, and lung cancer case. A CTV-to-PTV margin size which ensures at least 95% dose to (on average) 99% of the CTV, appears to be equal to about 2Sigma + 0.7sigma for three all cases. Because rotational deviations are included, the resulting margins can be anisotropic, as shown for the prostate cancer case. CONCLUSION: A method has been developed for calculation of CTV-to-PTV margins based on the assumption that the CTV should be adequately irradiated with a high probability.

Female↗

Substitute decision-making: measuring individually mediated sources of uncertainty.

One aspect of O'Connor's Decisional Conflict Scale [O'Connor, A.M., Validation of a decisional conflict scale, Med. Decis. Making 15 (1995) 25-30] is the assessment of selected factors (perceived lack of information, undue social pressure, lack of support from others, and lack of clarity about personal values) that are believed to contribute to decisional uncertainty. This study explored the appropriateness of this uncertainty measure in the substitute decision-making context. Forty-nine mothers deciding on gastrostomy tube insertion for their children completed the scale, and also provided verbal reports about the contributory factors. For each of the four factors, relatively high-, moderate-, and low-scoring sub-groups were identified; then the associated verbal reports were examined for across-sub-group differences. Differences in verbal reports about information (chi 2 = 6.990, P = 0.0082), perceived pressure (chi 2 = 8.377, P = 0.0038), social support (chi 2 = 5.573, P = 0.0182), and perceived gains and losses (chi 2 = 3.85, P = 0.0499; chi 2 = 5.76, P = 0.0164) were observed, implying consistency between quantitative scores and verbal reports. This quantitative/qualitative hybrid approach may be clinically useful for assessing individually mediated factors contributing to decision uncertainty, and for evaluating therapeutic interventions in other substitute decision-making contexts.

Adolescent↗

Characteristics of clients with schizophrenia who express certainty or uncertainty about continuing treatment with depot neuroleptic medication.

In this exploratory study, the factors corresponding to clients' certainty or uncertainty in continuing with depot neuroleptic medication for schizophrenia were examined. Ninety-four participants from a tertiary care schizophrenia clinic received an educational intervention aid containing information about treatment risks and benefits and were interviewed to elicit their levels of decisional conflict, self-efficacy, and emotional support, as well as expectations of risks and benefits of treatment. Eighty-seven percent of participants decided to continue treatment. Clients who expressed uncertainty (10%) about continuing with treatment had higher levels of decisional conflict (p = .000), lower levels of decision self-efficacy (p = .037) and decision emotional control (p = .003), lower expectations of hospitalization if treatment was stopped (p = .04) as well as lower expectations of benefits and higher expectations of side effects (p = .04), if treatment continued. In addition, reasons identified by participants for certainty or uncertainty were reported. The research may be useful in increasing the awareness of clinicians about the factors contributing to treatment decision making by clients diagnosed with schizophrenia and ultimately improve collaborative decision making.

Adult↗