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Secular trends in proximal femoral fracture, Oxford record linkage study area and England 1968-86.

OBJECTIVE: To study hospital admission rates for fractures of the proximal femur over a period when incidence is reported to have increased, compensating for known lack of precision in coding, excluding nonemergency admissions and transfers, and modelling for age, period, and cohort effects. DESIGN: Validation of coding of a sample of hospital admissions followed by study of two sets of routinely collected statistical abstracts of hospital records; graphical analysis and statistical modelling were used to search for period and cohort effects. SETTING: Oxfordshire and west Berkshire in 1968-86, covered by the Oxford record linkage study (ORLS), and ENGLAND in 1968-85, covered by the hospital inpatient enquiry (HIPE). The ORLS and HIPE datasets are almost independent (ORLS contributed about 1.8% of the HIPE data). SUBJECTS: Records of patients aged 65 and over. OUTCOME MEASURES: Admission rates for fractured neck of femur and fracture of other and unspecified parts of femur (N820 and N821), and evidence of period and cohort effects. RESULTS: The validation study indicated that it was important to combine the codes 820 and 821 in this age group. Admission rates increased over the period studied in both HIPE and ORLS datasets. In HIPE the pattern was of two plateaux separated by a period of rapid rise in the late 1970s. In the ORLS data there was a more steady rise. Statistical analysis showed significant period and cohort effects but much of this was attributable to the component of the model common to both period and cohort effects (termed "drift"). CONCLUSIONS: The finding that admission rates increased in both datasets, combining relevant codings and restricting analysis to emergency admissions, strongly suggests that the rise was real. At least part of the period effect in the HIPE data, however, might be attributable to a sampling artefact. The cohort effect in incidence rates of femoral fracture has not been previously shown and would be compatible with a number of aetiological hypotheses.

Aged↗

Assessing the secular trends in the transmission of HIV in Greece.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the current trends in HIV transmission in Greece. METHODS: A retrospective study of HIV infected individuals reported to the Hellenic Center for Infectious Diseases Control (HCIDC) was conducted. RESULTS: Since the beginning of the epidemic in Greece and until early 1990s most cases concerned men who have sex with men (MSM). After the mid-1990s the proportion of homosexual males among HIV positive individuals decreased slightly, then was stabilised but they still remain the dominant population among HIV positive people. On the other hand, heterosexual transmission increased steadily and has become a frequent route for the spread of HIV/AIDS in recent years. Individuals originating from or travelling to countries where this mode of transmission prevails were the most frequent cases in this category. A significant proportion of cases classified as "undetermined" were also recorded and were partially attributed to the increased heterosexual transmission among people (especially women) without obvious high risk behaviours. CONCLUSIONS: The HIV/AIDS surveillance system must evolve in order to find the new unreported risk information and identify the population groups at higher risk. This will help to implement preventive policies and information campaigns addressed to target populations with special attention paid to immigrants, women, and marginalized communities.

Emigration and Immigration↗

[Secular evolution and evolution according to autonomous communities of the frequency of fertility treatments, multiple deliveries and cesarean sections in Spain].

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Fertility treatments, multiple deliveries and caesarean sections are related to maternal age. Because maternal age has increased in Spain, it can also be expected an increase in these variables. We analyzed their evolution over the time and by maternal age, either globally and by Spanish Autonomous Communities. SUBJECTS AND METHOD: We studied a sample of 30,956 mothers of non-malformed newborn infants from all over Spain. STUDY PERIOD: between 1977 and June 2002. RESULTS: The percentage of fertility treatments shows a statistically significant increasing trend in all of the maternal ages groups. However, this was higher in mothers older than 34 years, among whom the frequency of multiple deliveries also increased (p = 0.01). The same trends were observed by Spanish Autonomous Communities, yet with differences between them. In the Comunidad Valenciana, we identified the highest frequency of fertility treatments, while the highest mean maternal age was observed in Aragón. Galicia has one of the lowest proportions of multiple deliveries, while the percentage of fertility treatments is similar to other regions. The percentage of caesarean sections (over 25%, globally) shows a statistically significant increasing trend in all the maternal ages groups, the highest one being among mothers older than 39 years. CONCLUSIONS: The observed increasing maternal age implies a higher use of fertility treatments, multiple deliveries and caesarean sections. All these variables show statistically significant variations between Spanish Autonomous Communities and over the time.

Adult↗

Secular trends in stroke mortality in African Americans: the role of urbanization, diabetes and obesity.

The decline in stroke mortality rates in African Americans has slowed to that seen in the 1960s; rates remain higher than in European Americans. Rates are higher in the southeastern US and in nonmetropolitan areas. Adverse trends and patterns in diabetes, obesity, and heart disease prevalence are possible explanations. Unless new, effective prevention programs are introduced in African American communities, stroke mortality rates will decline slowly if at all. The best chance to increase the rate of decline in stroke mortality rates in African Americans may be to redouble efforts to achieve the goals for the year 2000. Community and patient education on improving diet, increasing exercise, further improving detection and control of hypertension, using aspirin in stroke prevention and active control of stroke risk factors in diabetics must be stressed.

Adult↗

Secular trends in mortality rates from motor neuron disease in Kentucky 1964-1984.

All death certificates with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) or motor neuron disease (MND) as the primary or underlying cause occurring among Kentucky residents between 1964 and 1984 were manually reviewed. Geographic variability within Kentucky was evident for three intervals, 1964-1967, 1968-1978, and 1979-1984, with a more marked pattern among females than among males. There was a shifting age pattern of MND mortality with a higher proportion of cases in older ages for the most recent time period. Again, this pattern was more marked among females. Furthermore, there was a slight increase in total average annual age adjusted ALS/MND mortality rates over the three intervals. The increase is slight, but with the previous stability of reported rates and the shifting geographic and age patterns, there is evidence to support the need for incidence studies targeted at specific environmental exposures.

Age Factors↗

Epidemiology of motor neuron disease in two Italian provinces. Analysis of secular trend and geographic distribution.

Incidence and prevalence rates of motor neuron disease in two Italian provinces (Asti and Cuneo, Piedmont region) in the period 1971 through 1985 were estimated. The data were omogeneous in the investigated area, but an increasing incidence of the disease during the period studied was found, particularly in older age groups and in females. An increasing trend in mean age of onset of symptoms was also found.

Aged↗

A community-wide perspective of secular trends in the therapeutic management of patients with acute myocardial infarction. The Worcester Heart Attack Study.

As part of an ongoing community-wide study of time trends in the incidence and case-fatality rates of patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction (MI) in 16 Worcester, Mass., metropolitan hospitals during the calendar years 1975, 1978, 1981, and 1984, changes over time in the therapeutic management of 3,263 patients with validated acute MI were examined. Beta-blocker and nitrate therapy use increased consistently and dramatically. Use of antiplatelet agents was inconsistent, while use of digoxin remained stable. Use of antiarrhythmic medications other than lidocaine decreased consistently while lidocaine use increased between 1975 and 1978 and then leveled off to being used in approximately 45% of hospitalized patients with acute MI in 1981 and 1984. A variety of demographic (e.g. age, sex, teaching hospital) and clinical characteristics (e.g. MI order, MI type, MI location, peak CPK findings, occurrence of acute clinical complications) were also associated with the use of these therapies. The results of this community-wide study suggest changes over time in the therapeutic management of patients hospitalized with acute MI and of various patient demographic and clinical factors associated with the use of these agents.

Adrenergic beta-Antagonists↗

Secular trends in atherosclerosis of coronary arteries and basal cerebral arteries in Japan. The Akita pathology study.

The atherosclerotic lesions of the coronary arteries and basal cerebral arteries in the circle of Willis were examined in the bodies of decreased men ages 30 and over who had been admitted to a local hospital in northeast Japan during 1966 to 1974 (243 men) and 1975 to 1984 (602 men). The autopsy rates during the two periods were 86% and 89%, respectively. The extent of atherosclerosis was determined blindly by one pathologist using a grading method of cross-sectional stenosis scoring for coronary arteries and Baker's method for basal cerebral arteries. The age-adjusted mean scores for atherosclerosis in the coronary arteries and basal cerebral arteries were 30% and 42% lower, respectively, in the 1975 to 1984 period than in the 1966 to 1974 period (p less than 0.001). There was also a fall in age-adjusted blood pressure levels at admission: 10 mm Hg for systolic and 4 mm Hg for diastolic blood pressure (p less than 0.001). The opposite trend was seen in mean serum cholesterol: a rise from 171 mg/dl to 177 mg/dl (p = 0.018). Linear regression analysis indicated that blood pressure was positively associated with both atherosclerosis scores, controlling for age and serum cholesterol in both time periods (p less than 0.001). The association of serum cholesterol with the atherosclerosis scores was positive in both periods and statistically significant in 1975 to 1984. Similar findings were obtained when the analyses were conducted for cardiovascular disease (myocardial infarction and stroke) and for noncardiovascular disease, separately.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Adult↗