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Distribution of childhood leukaemias and non-Hodgkin's lymphomas near nuclear installations in England and Wales.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relation between the risk of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and proximity of residence to nuclear installations in England and Wales. DESIGN: Observed and expected numbers of cases were calculated and analysed by standard methods based on ratios of observed to expected counts and by a new statistical test, the linear risk score test, based on ranks and designed to be sensitive to excess incidence in close proximity to a putative source of risk. SETTING: Electoral wards within 25 km of 23 nuclear installations and six control sites that had been investigated for suitability for generating stations but never used. SUBJECTS: Children below age 15 in England and Wales, 1966-87. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Registration of any leukaemia or non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. RESULTS: In none of the 25 km circles around the installations was the incidence ratio significantly greater than 1.0. The only significant results for the linear risk score test were for Sellafield (P = 0.00002) and Burghfield (P = 0.031). The circles for Aldermaston and Burghfield overlap; the incidence ratio was 1.10 in each. One of the control sites gave a significant linear risk score test result (P = 0.020). All the tests carried out were one sided with P values estimated by simulation. CONCLUSION: There is no evidence of a general increase of childhood leukaemia or non-Hodgkin's lymphoma around nuclear installations. Apart from Sellafield, the evidence for distance related risk is very weak.

Adolescent↗

Mortality from cardiovascular disease among interregional migrants in England and Wales.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the extent to which geographical variations in mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke in Britain are influenced by factors in early life or in adulthood. DESIGN: Longitudinal study of migrants. SUBJECTS: 1% sample of residents in England and Wales born before October 1939 and enumerated at the 1971 census (the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys' longitudinal study). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: 18,221 deaths from ischaemic heart disease and 9899 deaths from stroke during 1971-88 were analysed by areas of residence in 1939 and 1971. These included 2928 deaths from ischaemic heart disease and 1608 deaths from stroke among individuals moving between 14 areas defined by the major conurbations and nine standard administrative regions of England and Wales. RESULTS: The southeast to northwest gradient in mortality from ischaemic heart disease was related significantly to both the 1939 area (chi 2 = 6.09, df = 1) and area in 1971 (chi 2 = 5.05, df = 1). Geographical variations in mortality from stroke were related significantly to the 1939 area (chi 2 = 4.09, df = 1) but the effect of area in 1971 was greater (chi 2 = 8.07, df = 1). The effect of 1971 area on mortality from stroke was largely due to a lower risk of death from stroke among individuals moving into Greater London compared with migrants to the rest of the South East region (chi 2 = 4.54, df = 1). CONCLUSIONS: Geographical variations in mortality from cardiovascular disease in Britain may be partly determined by genetic factors, environmental exposures, or lifestyle acquired early in life, but the risk of fatal ischaemic heart disease and stroke changes on migration between areas with differing mortality. The low risk of death from stroke associated with residence in Greater London is acquired by individuals who move there.

Adult↗

Patterns of mortality in second generation Irish living in England and Wales: longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the mortality of second generation Irish living in England and Wales. DESIGN: Longitudinal study of 1% of the population of England and Wales (longitudinal study by the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys (now the Office for National Statistics)) followed up from 1971 to 1989. SUBJECTS: 3075 men and 3233 women aged 15 and over in 1971. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age and sex specific standardised mortality ratios for all causes, cancers, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, and injuries and poisonings. Deaths were also analysed by socioeconomic indicators. RESULTS: 786 deaths were traced to men and 762 to women. At working ages (men, aged 15-64; women, 15-59) the mortality of men (standardised mortality ratio 126) and women (129) was significantly higher than that of all men and all women. At ages 15-44, relative disadvantages were even greater both for men (145) and for women (164). Mortality was raised for most major causes of death. Significant excess mortality from cancers was seen for men of working age (132) and for women aged 60 and over (122). At working ages mortality of the second generation Irish in every social class and in the categories of car access and housing tenure was higher than that of all men and all women in the corresponding categories. Adjusting for these socioeconomic indicators did not explain the excess mortality. CONCLUSION: Mortality of second generation Irish men and women was higher than that of all men and all women and for most major causes of death. While socioeconomic factors remain important, cultural and lifestyle factors are likely to contribute to this adverse mortality.

Adolescent↗

"I'm all right, John": voting patterns and mortality in England and Wales, 1981-92.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between voting patterns, deprivation, and mortality across England and Wales. DESIGN: Ecological study. SETTING: All the electoral constituencies of England and Wales. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Combined and sex specific standardised mortality ratios. RESULTS: For the years surrounding the three elections of 1983, 1987, and 1992 overall standardised mortality ratios showed substantial negative correlations of -0.74 to -0.76 with Conservative voting and substantial positive correlations of 0.73 to 0.77 with Labour voting (all P < 0.0001). Correlations were higher for male than female mortality. Conservative voting was strongly negatively correlated (r = -0.84) with the Townsend deprivation score, while Labour voting was positively correlated (r = 0.74) with this. Labour and Conservative voting explained more of the variance in mortality than did the Townsend score. In multiple regression analyses for the 1992 election Labour voting (P < 0.0001), Conservative voting (P < 0.0001), the Townsend score (P = 0.016), and abstentions (P = 0.032) were all associated with mortality. Labour and conservative voting explained 61% of the variance in mortality between constituencies; when Townsend score and abstentions were added this increased to 63%. CONCLUSIONS: Conservative and Labour voting are at least as strongly associated with mortality as is a standard deprivation index. Voting patterns may add information above that provided by indicators of material deprivation. People living in better circumstances and who have better health, who are least likely to require unemployment benefit and free school meals or to rely on a state pension in old age, and who are most able to opt out of state subsidised provision of transport, education, and the NHS, vote for the party that is most likely to dismantle the welfare state.

England↗

Ecological analysis of collectivity of alcohol consumption in England: importance of average drinker.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether the average consumption of alcohol is associated with the prevalence of heavy drinking, problem drinking, and abstention in England. DESIGN: Ecological analysis using data from a cross sectional household based survey of English adults. SUBJECTS: Random sample of 32,333 adults from the English population who participated in the 1993 and 1994 health surveys for England. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Association, expressed as the correlation coefficient, between the regional mean and median alcohol consumption and the regional prevalence of heavy drinking, problem drinking, and abstention. RESULTS: Mean consumption of alcohol in light to moderate drinkers was strongly positively associated with the prevalence of heavy drinking (r = 0.75 in men and r = 0.62 in women for drinking more than 21 and 14 units per week respectively). A similar association was found between median consumption and prevalence of heavy drinking. Abstention was not significantly associated with mean consumption in drinkers (r = 0.08 for men and r = -0.29 for women). Both the median and mean consumption in drinkers were positively associated with the prevalence of problem drinking as defined by the CAGE questionnaire on alcohol use (r = 0.53 for men and r = 0.42 for women for the association with mean consumption). CONCLUSION: Factors that increase the average consumption of alcohol in the population may result in an increase in the prevalence of heavy drinking and related problems.

Adult↗

Age specific trends in asthma mortality in England and Wales, 1983-95: results of an observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine trends in asthma mortality by age group in England and Wales during 1983-95. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: England and Wales. SUBJECTS: All deaths classified as having an underlying cause of asthma registered from 1 January 1983 to 31 December 1995. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Time trends for age specific asthma deaths. RESULTS: Deaths in the age group 5-14 years showed an irregular downward trend during 1983-95; deaths in the age groups 15-44, 45-64, and 65-74 years peaked before 1989 and then showed a downward trend; and deaths in the age group 75-84 years peaked between 1988 and 1993 and subsequently dropped. Trends were: age group 5-14 years, 6% (95% confidence interval 3% to 9%); 15-44 years, 6% (5% to 7%); 45-64 years, 5% (4% to 6%); 65-74 years, 2% (1% to 3%). Deaths in the 75-84 and 85 and over categories plateaued. CONCLUSIONS: There are downward trends in asthma mortality in Britain, which may be due to increased use of prophylactic treatment.

Adolescent↗

Geographical variation in anophthalmia and microphthalmia in England, 1988-94.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the geographical variation and clustering of congenital anophthalmia and microphthalmia in England, in response to media reports of clusters. DESIGN: Comparison of pattern of residence at birth of cases of anophthalmia and microphthalmia in England in 1988-94, notified to a special register, with pattern of residence of all births. Three groups studied included all cases, all severe cases, and all severe cases of unknown aetiology. OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence rates of anophthalmia and microphthalmia by region and district, and by ward population density and socioeconomic deprivation index of enumeration district grouped into fifths. Clustering expressed as the tendency for the three nearest neighbours of a case to be more likely to be cases than expected by chance, or for there to be more cases within circles of fixed radius of a case than expected by chance. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of anophthalmia and microphthalmia was 1.0 per 10 000 births. Regional and district variation in prevalence did not reach statistical significance. Prevalence was higher in rural than urban areas: the relative risk in the group of wards of lowest population density compared with the most densely populated group was 1.79 (95% confidence interval 1.15 to 2.81) for all cases and 2.37 (1.38 to 4. 08) for severe cases. There was no evidence of a trend in risk with socioeconomic deprivation. There was very little evidence of localised clustering. CONCLUSIONS: There is very little evidence to support the presence of strongly localised environmental exposures causing clusters of children to be born with anophthalmia or microphthalmia. The excess risk in rural areas requires further investigation.

Anophthalmos↗

Effect of screening on incidence of and mortality from cancer of cervix in England: evaluation based on routinely collected statistics.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of screening on the incidence of and mortality from cervical cancer. DESIGN: Comparison of age specific incidence and mortality before and after the introduction of the national call and recall system in 1988. SETTING: England. SUBJECTS: Women aged over 19 years. RESULTS: From the mid-1960s, the number of smears taken rose continuously to 4.5 million at the end of the 1980s. Between 1988 and 1994, coverage of the target group doubled to around 85%. Registrations of in situ disease increased broadly in parallel with the numbers of smears taken. The overall incidence of invasive disease remained stable up to the end of the 1980s, although there were strong cohort effects; from 1990 incidence fell continuously and in 1995 was 35% lower than in the 1980s. The fall in overall mortality since 1950 accelerated at the end of the 1980s; there were strong cohort effects. Mortality in women under 55 was much lower in the 1990s than would have been expected. CONCLUSIONS: The national call and recall system and incentive payments to general practitioners increased coverage to around 85%. This resulted in falls in incidence of invasive disease in all regions of England and in all age groups from 30 to 74. The falls in mortality in older women were largely unrelated to screening, but without screening there might have been 800 more deaths from cervical cancer in women under 55 in 1997.

Adult↗

Extent of misclassification of death from Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in England 1979-96: retrospective examination of clinical records.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the extent to which deaths from Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease were misclassified during 1979-96. DESIGN: Structured review of clinical records based on predetermined criteria to determine whether death could have been due to sporadic or variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. SETTING: 100 health authorities and 275 NHS trusts in England. SUBJECTS: 1485 people who died aged 15-44 years from selected neurological disorders in England during 1979-96. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Cause of death. RESULTS: The clinical records of 705 (48%) subjects were successfully traced. Tracing of clinical records was highest in subjects who died during 1990-6. There was sufficient information in the records of 640 (91%) of the 705 subjects to exclude Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease as a cause of death. In 61 (9%) subjects, there was insufficient information to reach any conclusion about the validity of the cause of death recorded on the death certificate. The clinical records of four subjects were examined further by the National Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease Surveillance Unit; none was thought to have died from Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. CONCLUSIONS: No new cases of sporadic or variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease were detected in a sample of deaths most likely to have included misclassified cases. This suggests that the surveillance system is unlikely to have missed a significant number of cases among people aged 15-44 years. Hence, any rapid increase in the number of cases of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in this age group is likely to be real not artefactual.

Adolescent↗

Bacteraemia and antibiotic resistance of its pathogens reported in England and Wales between 1990 and 1998: trend analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Determination of causes, trends, and antibiotic resistance in reports of bacterial pathogens isolated from blood in England and Wales from 1990 to 1998. DESIGN: Description of bacterial isolates from blood, judged to be clinically significant by microbiology staff, reported to the Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre. SETTING: Microbiology laboratories in England and Wales. SUBJECTS: Patients yielding clinically significant isolates from blood. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Frequency and Poisson regression analyses for trend of reported causes of bacteraemia and proportions of antibiotic resistant isolates. RESULTS: There was an upward trend in total numbers of reports of bacteraemia. The five most cited organisms accounted for over 60% of reports each year. There was a substantial increase in the proportion of reports of Staphylococcus aureus resistant to methicillin, Streptococcus pneumoniae resistance to penicillin and erythromycin, and Enterococcus faecalis and Enterococcus faecium resistance to vancomycin. No increase was seen in resistance of Escherichia coli to gentamicin. CONCLUSIONS: Reports from laboratories provide valuable information on trends and antibiotic resistance in bacteraemia and show a worrying increase in resistance to important antibiotics.

Bacteremia↗

Children's exposure to passive smoking in England since the 1980s: cotinine evidence from population surveys.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether children's exposure to passive smoking has changed since the late 1980s. DESIGN: Cross sectional surveys of nationally representative samples of secondary school children carried out between 1988 and 1998 by Office for National Statistics. SETTING: England. SUBJECTS: Secondary school children aged 11-15. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Salivary cotinine concentrations in non-smoking children. RESULTS: Cotinine concentrations in all non-smoking children almost halved between 1988 and 1998, from a geometric mean of 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.83 to 1.11) ng/ml in 1988 to 0.52 (0.43 to 0.62) ng/ml in 1998. This reduction was largely due to reductions in exposure in children from non-smoking households and to decreases in the percentage of parents who smoked. Children living with mothers or fathers who smoked experienced little reduction in exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to passive smoking among children in England has approximately halved since the late 1980s. This reduction is partly explained by the fall in the percentage of both mothers and fathers who smoke and is also likely to reflect reductions of smoking in public places. However, there is only limited evidence that children from smoking households have experienced a reduction in exposure through parents' avoidance of smoking in their presence.

Adolescent↗

Deaths from chickenpox in England and Wales 1995-7: analysis of routine mortality data.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the epidemiology and impact of mortality from chickenpox in England and Wales. DESIGN: Review of death certificates from the Office for National Statistics on which codes for "chickenpox" or "varicella" were mentioned. Further information ascertained from certifying physician. PARTICIPANTS: Those certified as having died from chickenpox in England and Wales, 1995-7. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Diagnosis and age and sex distributions of deaths from chickenpox. RESULTS: On average, 25 people a year die from chickenpox. Overall case fatality was 9.22 per 100 000 consultations for chickenpox. Adults accounted for 81% of deaths and 19% of consultations. Deaths were twice as common in men as in women. More of those who died were born outside United Kingdom than expected (12% v 4%). CONCLUSIONS: Chickenpox is not a mild disease. Deaths in adults are increasing, both in number and proportion.

Adolescent↗

Socioeconomic and ethnic group differences in self reported health status and use of health services by children and young people in England: cross sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine whether self reported health status and use of health services varies in children of different social class and ethnic group. DESIGN: Cross sectional study from the 1999 health survey for England. SUBJECTS: 6648 children and young adults aged 2-20 years. SETTING: Private households in England. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of children (or their parents) reporting episodes of acute illness in the preceding fortnight and prevalence of self reported longstanding illness. Proportion reporting specific illnesses. Proportion reporting that they had consulted a general practitioner in the preceding fortnight, attended hospital outpatient departments in the three preceding months, or been admitted to hospital in the preceding year. RESULTS: Large socioeconomic differences were observed between ethnic subgroups; a higher proportion of Afro-Caribbean, Indian, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi children belonged to lower social classes than the general population. The proportion of children and young adults reporting acute illnesses in the preceding two weeks was lower in Bangladeshi and Chinese subgroups (odds ratio 0.41, 95% confidence interval 0.27 to 0.61 and 0.46, 0.28 to 0.77, respectively) than in the general population. Longstanding illnesses was less common in Bangladeshi and Pakistani children (0.52, 0.40 to 0.67 and 0.57, 0.46 to 0.70) than in the general population. Irish and Afro-Caribbean children reported the highest prevalence of asthma (19.5% and 17.7%) and Bangladeshi children the lowest (8.2%). A higher proportion of Afro-Caribbean children reported major injuries than the general population (11.0% v 10.0%), and children from all Asian subgroups reported fewer major and minor injuries than the general population. Indian and Pakistani children were more likely to have consulted their general practitioner in the preceding fortnight than the general population (1.86, 1.35 to 2.57 and 1.51, 1.13 to 2.01, respectively). Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, and Chinese children were less likely to have attended outpatient departments in the preceding three months. No significant differences were found between ethnic groups in the admission of inpatients to hospitals. Acute and chronic illness were the best predictors of children's use of health services. Social classes did not differ in self reported prevalence of treated infections, major injuries, or minor injuries, and no socioeconomic differences were seen in the use of primary and secondary healthcare services. CONCLUSIONS: Children's use of health services reflected health status rather than ethnic group or socioeconomic status, implying that equity of access has been partly achieved, although reasons why children from ethnic minority groups are able to access primary care but receive less secondary care need to be investigated.

Adolescent↗

Where does blood go? Prospective observational study of red cell transfusion in north England.

OBJECTIVE: To collect population based information on transfusion of red blood cells. DESIGN: Prospective observational study over 28 days. SETTING: Hospital blood banks in the north of England (population 2.9 million). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Indications for transfusion, number of units given, and the age and sex of transfusion recipients. PARTICIPANTS: All patients who received a red cell transfusion during the study period. Data completed by hospital blood bank staff. RESULTS: The destination of 9848 units was recorded (97% of expected blood use). In total 9774 units were transfused: 5047 (51.6%) units were given to medical patients, 3982 (40.7%) to surgical patients, and 612 (6.3%) to obstetric and gynaecology patients. Nearly half (49.3%) of all blood is given to female recipients, and the mean age of recipients of individual units was 62.7 years. The most common surgical indications for transfusion were total hip replacement (4.6% of all blood transfused) and coronary artery bypass grafting (4.1%). Haematological disorders accounted for 15.5% of use. Overall use was 4274 units per 100 000 population per year. CONCLUSION: In the north east of England more than half of red cell units are transfused for medical indications. Demand for red cell transfusion increases with age. With anticipated changes in the age structure of the population the demand for blood will increase by 4.9% by 2008.

Adolescent↗

Trends in Haemophilus influenzae type b infections in adults in England and Wales: surveillance study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) infections in individuals aged 15 years or older in England and Wales between 1991 and 2003. DESIGN: Prospective, laboratory based surveillance of invasive Hib infections and cross sectional seroprevalence study. SETTING: England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: Cases were confirmed by isolation of H influenzae from a normally sterile site, or from a non-sterile site in cases with a diagnosis of epiglottitis. Excess serum samples collected from English 30-39 year olds as part of a national serosurvey were identified for the years 1990, 1994, 1997, 2000, and 2002. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The number of invasive Hib infections from 1991 to 2003. Population immunity to H influenzae type b in English adults was also measured. RESULTS: After routine infant immunisation was introduced in October 1992, adult Hib infections decreased initially but then rose from a low in 1998 to reach prevaccine levels in 2003. An associated fall in median Hib antibody concentrations occurred, from 1.29 microg/ml (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 1.64) in 1991 to 0.70 microg/ml (0.57 to 0.89) in 1994 (P = 0.006), with no significant change observed thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: Although immunisation of infants resulted in an initial decline in Hib infections in adults, a resurgence in reported cases occurred in 2002-3. This rise was associated with an increase in cases in children and evidence of reduced immunity in older unimmunised cohorts. Childhood immunisation programmes may have unanticipated effects on the epidemiology of disease in older age groups, and surveillance strategies must be targeted at entire populations.

Adolescent↗

Impact of specialty of admitting physician and type of hospital on care and outcome for myocardial infarction in England and Wales during 2004-5: observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine process of care and outcome for patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction to hospitals in England and Wales in relation to type of consultant care and type of hospital. DESIGN: Observational study of 88,782 patients admitted with myocardial infarction during 2004-5, using records from the national audit of myocardial infarction project (MINAP) database. OUTCOME MEASURES: Use of reperfusion treatment and secondary prevention drugs, use of angiography, and 90 day mortality of patients admitted under the care of cardiologists and non-cardiologists in hospitals with and without facilities for coronary intervention. FINDINGS: 36% of patients were admitted under the care of a cardiologist and 20% to a hospital with coronary interventional facilities. Patients admitted under cardiologists had fewer comorbidities than other patients and were more likely to have reperfusion treatment (12,266/14,433 (85%) v 13,682/17,064 (80%)) and appropriate secondary prevention drugs. Overall, 27,431/79,374 (35%) of patients had angiography. Relatively more patients admitted to interventional hospitals (8167/14,661; 56%) than to other hospitals had angiography (19,264/64,713; 30%). The adjusted risk of death by 90 days for patients treated in interventional compared with non-interventional hospitals was 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.82 to 1.06). The adjusted risk of death at 90 days for patients admitted under cardiologists compared with non-cardiologists was 0.86 (0.81 to 0.91). CONCLUSIONS: Patients cared for by cardiologists had less comorbidity than other patients. They were more likely to receive proved treatments and angiography, and they had a lower adjusted 90 day mortality. Large differences existed in the use of angiography between interventional and non-interventional hospitals. These findings show wide variations in the management and outcome of patients with myocardial infarction in England and Wales.

Aged↗

Health-system burden of higher-risk myelodysplastic syndromes in England: a literature-based micro-cost analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the per-patient-per-month (PPPM) cost for each phase of care in higher-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (HR-MDS) and the overall cost of a base-case (illustrative) non-curative management pathway followed by a patient with HR-MDS in England. DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective, literature-based, micro-costing analysis from the National Health Service (NHS) England provider perspective using published sources and publicly available price lists. No individual-patient data were used. Based on literature, a base-case management pathway followed by a patient with HR-MDS was defined as a diagnostic work-up at month 0, 12 cycles of azacitidine (given for 7&#x2009;days in each 28-day cycle), 5 months of post-hypomethylating agent (HMA) failure supportive care and 1&#x2009;month of terminal care. SETTING: Healthcare resource utilisation was analysed for adults with HR-MDS who received first-line azacitidine in routine practice if cycle-level or phase-level transfusion and admission rates were reported in the literature. Patients who required allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation or whose HR-MDS transformed to acute myeloid leukaemia were excluded because the diagnostic and/or therapeutic pathways differ. Unit costs for 2024/2025 were taken from published English national sources and an English trust tariff. RESULTS: PPPM costs were &#xa3;8721.58 during active azacitidine therapy, &#xa3;5399.58 after HMA failure and &#xa3;12 554.58 for hospital-dominant terminal care; a one-off diagnostic work-up with genomics cost &#xa3;2710 to &#xa3;2810. The total cost for the base-case management pathway was &#xa3;146 921 per patient. An alternative pathway excluding genomic testing and assuming hospice-dominant terminal care reduced the total cost to approximately &#xa3;136 840 to &#xa3;140 990, depending on whether the lower or upper bound of hospice bed-day costs is applied. CONCLUSIONS: The direct NHS-provider cost burden of this non-curative HR-MDS management pathway is concentrated in azacitidine acquisition and administration during active treatment, transfusions and admissions after HMA failure and setting-dependent costs at the end of life. The total cost for the illustrative management pathway followed by a patient with HR-MDS (&#xa3;146 921) is of a similar order to the estimate in the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence technology appraisal for azacitidine uprated to &#xa3;124 848 for 2024/2025. This comparison is provided for context only and should not be interpreted as validation of the present model, given differences in population, model structure, treatment duration and price year. The phase-specific PPPM estimates can inform, subject to local validation and scenario testing, UK budget-impact analyses, service planning and future economic models.

Humans↗

Epidemiology of cerebral palsy in England and Scotland, 1984-9.

AIMS: To report on the epidemiology of cerebral palsy in England and Scotland, to provide information on the prevalence of cerebral palsy and the severity of the disability or any co-morbidity. METHODS: Cerebral palsy registers were compiled from multiple sources of ascertainment covering all of Scotland and the counties of Merseyside, Cheshire, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Northamptonshire and Oxfordshire in England. All cases of cerebral palsy born in 1984 to 1989, to mothers resident in the area, were included. Denominator number of live births and neonatal deaths for determining birthweight specific prevalence were obtained from birth and death registrations. Learning, manual, and ambulatory disabilities were graded for severity. Any co-existing sensory (hearing or visual) morbidity was also graded for severity. RESULTS: There were 789,411 live births in 1984-9, with 3651 neonatal deaths (neonatal mortality 4.6 per 1000 live births) and 1649 cases of cerebral palsy--a cerebral palsy prevalence of 2.1 per 1000 neonatal survivors. The birthweight specific cerebral palsy prevalence ranged from 1.1 per 1000 neonatal survivors in infants weighting > or = 2500 g to 78.1 in infants weighing < 1000 g. There was no significant time trend in prevalence of cerebral palsy in any of the birthweight groups, in contrast to the fall in neonatal mortality observed in all birthweight groups. Of the 1649 cases of cerebral palsy, 550 (33.4%) had severe ambulatory disability (no independent walking), 390 (23.7%) had severe manual disability (incapable of feeding or dressing unaided), 381 (23.1%) had severe learning disability (IQ < 50), 146 (8.9%) had severe visual disability (vision < 6/60 in the better eye) and 12 had severe hearing disability (> 70 dB loss). CONCLUSIONS: Registers fill an important gap left by the lack of routine data on the prevalence of disability in children. The ability to record trends in the prevalence and the severity of the disability should inform those who have responsibility for providing services for children with disabilities.

Cerebral Palsy↗