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Secular trends in waist circumference in Spanish adolescents, 1995 to 2000-02.

Two studies, in 1995 and 2000-02, were compared to assess changes in waist circumference in adolescents. Between the two time periods, waist circumference increased significantly in males at 13 years and in females at 14 years. Significant changes in waist circumference were observed during the study period; the rates of change were 0.53 and 0.86 cm/y in boys and 0.67 and 0.87 cm/y in girls. Future morbidity in adolescents may be affected due to accumulation of excess central fat.

Adipose Tissue↗

Secular trends in growth in diabetes: are we winning?

AIM: To determine potential effects of modern treatment on growth in diabetic children. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of growth in diabetic children stratified by their year of diagnosis between 1974 and 1995. A total of 451 children and adolescents attending the Diabetes Outpatient and Outreach Clinics of Royal Alexandra Hospital for Children in Sydney and rural NSW, Australia were studied. Standard deviation scores (SDS) for height and body mass index (BMI) were assessed at diagnosis, five years later (n = 451), and 10 years later (n = 111). RESULTS: After five years of diabetes duration height SDS loss correlated with higher HbA(1c) and fewer injections. BMI SDS gain correlated with HbA(1c) and age at diagnosis. Although there was no significant difference in their height SDS or age at diagnosis, children diagnosed 1974-90 were significantly shorter than children diagnosed 1991-95 (height SDS 0.07 v 0.37) after five years diabetes duration. Furthermore, over 5 and 10 years, the 1979-90 group had lost significant height SDS (mean change -0.20 at 5 years, -0.29 at 10 years); this did not occur in the 1991-95 group (-0.01 at 5 years, -0.13 at 10 years). The BMI SDS increased significantly after 10 years in the 1974-90 group (mean change 0.37) but not in the 1991-95 group. There was no significant difference in the 174 females' age of menarche (13.0 v 12.8 years). CONCLUSIONS: Children with diabetes treated with modern regimens maintain their increased height from diagnosis better, and after five years diabetes duration, were taller than children diagnosed before 1991.

Adolescent↗

Prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis and rheumatoid factor in women: evidence for a secular decline.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the current prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and rheumatoid factor positivity in the United Kingdom middle aged female population and to compare this with previous estimates to assess whether the disease is becoming less prevalent. METHODS: A cross sectional prevalence study was undertaken. All women aged 45-64 from the age and sex register of a large 11,000 general practitioner group practice in Chingford, East London were contacted and responders examined clinically and radiographically for the presence of RA by a single observer. Blood was also taken for rheumatoid factor testing (sheep cell agglutination test (SCAT), latex, and IgG). The prevalence in non-attenders was assessed from general practitioner and local hospital records. A diagnosis of definite or classical RA according to 1958 American Rheumatism Association criteria was used, and seropositivity was defined by a SCAT rheumatoid factor of 1/32 or more. RESULTS: From the 1003 women examined (response rate of 78.8%), 12 women had definite RA (1.2%, 95% confidence interval 0.6 to 1.8). Of these, 7/12 had definite erosive changes on radiography and 3/12 had a positive SCAT (> 1/32). Three cases of RA were also found in the 284 non-responders (prevalence 1.1%) by case-finding techniques. The rate of SCAT positivity in the whole study group was 0.5%. The rates of RA and SCAT positivity currently found in this group were less than those obtained in previous surveys. In the only previous large scale United Kingdom survey, performed in the north of England between 1958 and 1960, 406 women aged 45-64 were examined and 10 cases of definite RA were found, a prevalence of 2.5%. In the patients with RA 68% had erosions and 63% positive SCAT. The population SCAT positive rate in this and other surveys sampled between 1954 and 1961 was in the range of 4-5%, since when there has been a progressive decline according to a number of other studies. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of RA and rheumatoid factor in middle aged women is lower than previously believed and supports a variety of other data which indicate that RA is declining in incidence and severity.

Agglutination Tests↗

Evidence for secular trends in children's physical activity behaviour.

It is not clear whether the global increase in weight problems in children is the result of excessive energy intake or decreasing energy expenditure. Methodological limitations have made it difficult to analyse. There is evidence that at least part of the problem may lie with increasing energy consumption, but it is important to examine the other side of the energy equation also. However, it is not possible to conclusively describe physical activity trends because of the absence of suitable baseline data. One solution is to summate all available evidence in as many areas of daily activities as possible and then draw tentative conclusions. This review summarises available trend data on direct representations of physical activity in a range of contexts, together with indirect measures such as sedentariness, fitness, and attitudes. The conclusions drawn are: physical activity in clearly defined contexts such as active transport, school physical education, and organised sports is declining in many countries; young people would like to be active but are often constrained by external factors such as school policy or curricula, parental rules in relation to safety and convenience, and physical environmental factors.

Activities of Daily Living↗

Study of the secular trend in asbestos bodies in lungs in London 1936-66.

Thick sections (30mu unstained) cut from blocks of lung tissue from 100 consecutive necropsies for the years 1936, 1946, 1956, and 1966 at the Archway Hospital, London, have been searched for asbestos bodies. The incidence rose progressively-0, 3, 14, and 20% respectively. The rise was not explained by the increasing age of death in the later years or by the likely effects of changes in the areas within London in which the deaths occurred. There was no similar increase in the incidence of other bodies in the lungs which might be mistaken for asbestos bodies. The rising incidence is shown to fit reasonably with a model based on the hypothesis that the risk of inhaling asbestos increases in relation to the cumulative total of asbestos imported into the country from 1910 onwards. The rising incidence does not fit a model in which the risk depends simply on the current level of asbestos imports.

Adult↗

Secular trend in the occurrence of asthma among children and young adults: critical appraisal of repeated cross sectional surveys.

OBJECTIVES: To review repeated surveys of the rising prevalence of obstructive lung disease among children and young adults and determine whether systematic biases may explain the observed trends. DESIGN: Review of published reports of repeated cross sectional surveys of asthma and wheezing among children and young adults. The repeated surveys used the same sampling frame, the same definition of outcome variables, and equivalent data collection methods. SETTING: Repeated surveys conducted anywhere in the world. SUBJECTS: All repeated surveys whose last set of results were published in 1983 or later. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lifetime and current prevalences of asthma and current prevalence of wheezing. The absolute increase (yearly percentage) in the prevalences of asthma and wheezing was calculated and compared between studies. RESULTS: 16 repeated surveys fulfilled the inclusion criteria. 12 reported increases in the current prevalence of asthma (from 0.09% to 0.97% a year) and eight reported increases in the current prevalence of wheezing (from 0.14% to 1.24% a year). Changes in labelling are likely to have occurred for the reporting of asthma, and information biases may have occurred for the reporting of wheezing. Only one study reported an increase in an objective measurement. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence for increased prevalences of asthma and wheezing is weak because the measures used are susceptible to systematic errors. Until repeated surveys incorporating more objective data are available no firm conclusions about increases in obstructive lung disease among children and young adults can be drawn.

Adolescent↗

Secular trends in the epidemiology and outcome of Barrett's oesophagus in Olmsted County, Minnesota.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma has increased greatly. Barrett's oesophagus is a known risk factor. AIMS: To identify changes in the incidence, prevalence, and outcome of Barrett's oesophagus in a defined population. SUBJECTS: Residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, with clinically diagnosed Barrett's oesophagus, or oesophageal or oesophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma. METHODS: Cases were identified using the Rochester Epidemiology Project medical records linkage system. Records were reviewed with follow up to 1 January 1998. RESULTS: The incidence of clinically diagnosed Barrett's oesophagus (>3 cm) increased 28-fold from 0.37/100 000 person years in 1965-69 to 10.5/100 000 in 1995-97. Of note, gastroscopic examinations increased 22-fold in this same time period. The prevalence of diagnosed Barrett's oesophagus increased from 22.6 (95% confidence interval (CI) 11.7-33.6) per 100 000 in 1987 to 82.6/100 000 in 1998. The prevalence of short segment Barrett's oesophagus (<3 cm) in 1998 was 33.4/ 100 000. Patients with Barrett's oesophagus had shorter than expected survival but only one patient with Barrett's oesophagus died from adenocarcinoma. Only four of 64 adenocarcinomas occurred in patients with previously known Barrett's oesophagus. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence and prevalence of clinically diagnosed Barrett's oesophagus have increased in parallel with the increased use of endoscopy. We infer that the true population prevalence of Barrett's oesophagus has not changed greatly, although the incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma increased 10-fold. Many adenocarcinomas occurred in patients without a previous diagnosis of Barrett's oesophagus, suggesting that many people with this condition remain undiagnosed in the community.

Adenocarcinoma↗

Secular trends of nocardia infection over 15 years in a tertiary care hospital.

AIMS: To assess the incidence of nocardia infection over 15 years in a tertiary care hospital. METHODS: Over a 15 year period, Nocardia spp were isolated from 20 patients hospitalised at the Geneva University Hospitals, Switzerland. RESULTS: Sixteen patients had one or more underlying conditions. The median time between symptom onset and diagnosis was 30 days. The most common initial unconfirmed diagnosis was pulmonary tuberculosis (four). The lung was involved in 16 cases, followed by the central nervous system (two) and skin (two); one patient had disseminated infection. The most common species identified was N asteroides. In vitro susceptibility testing was performed on 14 of 20 strains. All strains were susceptible to imipenem and amikacin. Initial treatment with trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (TMP/SMX) was started in 14 patients, although five patients had to be switched to another treatment because of side effects or lack of efficacy. A cure was observed in 15 patients, death in three, and relapse or complications in two. CONCLUSIONS: Nocardiosis can become a severe infection and mainly affects profoundly immunocompromised patients. Differential diagnosis often delays the time to diagnosis, which worsens the outcome. New diagnostic tools, such as the polymerase chain reaction, could provide more rapid and reliable results. TMT/SMX was the most commonly prescribed treatment, but needed to be changed for another treatment because of side effects or lack of efficacy in a considerable proportion of patients. Imipenem should be used as an alternative treatment for severely ill patients, and the sulfa combination for less severe infections.

Adolescent↗