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PubMed2001

Underlying cognitions in the selection of lottery tickets.

There is evidence that the faulty cognitions underlying an individual's playing behavior maintains and supports their gambling behavior. Sixty undergraduate students completed the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS), a measure to assess pathological gambling, and a questionnaire ascertaining the type and frequency of their gambling activities. Sixteen Loto 6/49 tickets were presented to participants and ranked according to their perceived likelihood of being the winning ticket. The numbers on the tickets were categorized as: long sequences (e.g., 1-2-3-4-5-6), patterns and series in a pseudo-psychological order (e.g., 16-21-26-31-36-41), unbalanced (e.g., six numbers from 1-24 or 25-49), and those appearing to be random (e.g., 11-14-20-29-37-43). Verbal protocols of ticket selections were ranked into eight heuristics. Results revealed that for the entire sample the greatest percentage of tickets chosen for the first four selections were "random" tickets. Further, the most commonly cited reason for selecting and changing a lottery ticket was perceived randomness. The results are discussed with reference to the cognitions used when purchasing lottery tickets.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Probabilities of encounters between objects in biological systems 2: cognizer view.

The same event may not necessarily occur against a given cognition (action) upon repetition. The degree of certainty in which a particular event actually occurs following a current cognition is the probability of the event viewed (experienced) by the focal cognizer. This is the internal concept of probability, which is contrasted with the external probability concept, the probability viewed by the meta-observer located outside the system, expressed as the relative frequencies of events. The internal probability may be a measure of the adaptive cognitions or actions of a cognizer by which it generates or maintains a particular relation to its surroundings. In this paper, the quantitative description of encounter probabilities based on the internal concept is explored in the framework of the cognizers system model. The internal analysis derives the same formulation as that derived by the meta-observer concept of probability reported in a previous paper (Nakajima, 2001a), indicating the theoretical consistency of encounter probabilities between the analyses by the two contrasting probability concepts. The formulation suggests that a cognizer can raise (or reduce) the encounter probability with targets by a discriminative and selective response to a given situation, which describes a quantitative aspect of biological adaptation to the environment.

Adaptation, Physiological↗
PubMed2005

Uncertainty in white matter fiber tractography.

In this work we address the uncertainty associated with fiber paths obtained in white matter fiber tractography. This uncertainty, which arises for example from noise and partial volume effects, is quantified using a Bayesian modeling framework. The theory for estimating the probability of a connection between two areas in the brain is presented, and a new model of the local water diffusion profile is introduced. We also provide a theorem that facilitates the estimation of the parameters in this diffusion model, making the presented method simple to implement.

Algorithms↗
PubMed1995

Modelling endplate currents: dependence on quantum secretion probability and decay of miniature current.

Quantification of the time course and amplitude of endplate currents (EPC) was made with respect to dispersion of quanta secretion and to changes in the exponential decay of miniature endplate currents (tau mepc). The relationship between RPC amplitude and tau mepc follows a double-exponential curve with tau1 = 0.3 ms and tau2 = 6 ms. If the amplitude of fully synchronised EPC is taken as 100%, then the loss of EPC amplitude is already 42% with "physiological" parameters of dispersion (the half-rise and decay constant of distribution of secretion probability = 0.5 ms, taumepc = 1 ms). This loss is even more substantial if secretion is more dispersed or miniature endplate currents decay faster.

Acetylcholine↗
PubMed1981

BSP clearance as the most reliable criterion of hepatic dysfunction after jejunoileal bypass in the rat: arguments in favor of the existence of a pathogenetic mechanism involving a transient malnutrition state.

In rats subjected to 90% jejunoileal by-pass or in sham-operated controls, liver function was compared to plasma nutritional state and adaptation of the intestine in continuity over a period of 3 months. While the plasma levels of GOT, GPT, and esterases A and C as cholinesterase C did not differ in either group, the percentage of retention of BSP increased until 8 weeks, then returned progressively to control values 12 weeks after small-bowel bypass. In contrast, plasma nonesterified fatty acid levels decreased significantly until 6 weeks, then recovered control values over the following periods. Plasma total protein and albumin levels also diminished after jejunoileal bypass, the most marked decrease being at the 4th postoperative week. The increase in villus size following the intestinal bypass was considered pronounced for the ileum between the 8th and the 12th week. These results suggest that BSP clearance is the most reliable criterion for hepatic dysfunction in the rat subjected to a jejunoileal bypass. In addition, the parallelism between the variations of BSP clearance, intestinal adaptation, and plasma nutritional state argue for the "nutritional" theory as the most probable explanation for the formation of hepatic lesions.

Animals↗
PubMed1986

The number of nucleotides required to determine the branching order of three species, with special reference to the human-chimpanzee-gorilla divergence.

A mathematical theory for computing the probabilities of various nucleotide configurations among related species is developed, and the probability of obtaining the correct tree (topology) from nucleotide sequence data is evaluated using models of evolutionary trees that are close to the tree of mitochondrial DNAs from human, chimpanzee, gorilla, orangutan, and gibbon. Special attention is given to the number of nucleotides required to resolve the branching order among the three most closely related organisms (human, chimpanzee, and gorilla). If the extent of DNA divergence is close to that obtained by Brown et al. for mitochondrial DNA and if sequence data are available only for the three most closely related organisms, the number of nucleotides (m*) required to obtain the correct tree with a probability of 95% is about 4700. If sequence data for two outgroup species (orangutan and gibbon) are available, m* becomes about 2600-2700 when the transformed distance, distance-Wagner, maximum parsimony, or compatibility method is used. In the unweighted pair-group method, m* is not affected by the availability of data from outgroup species. When these five different tree-making methods, as well as Fitch and Margoliash's method, are applied to the mitochondrial DNA data (1834 bp) obtained by Brown et al. and by Hixson and Brown, they all give the same phylogenetic tree, in which human and chimpanzee are most closely related. However, the trees considered here are "gene trees," and to obtain the correct "species tree," sequence data for several independent loci must be used.

Animals↗
PubMed1995

Perceived risk and modal choice: risk compensation in transportation systems.

A transportation mode choice analysis is performed that examines behavioral responses to perceived risk in the choice of mode for daily commute trips. This methodology provides a technique for examining, by means of disaggregate individual level data, risk-compensating effects in transportation systems. Various measures of perceived risk are examined for explaining modal choice. Other studies have described how safety regulations have resulted in increases in "driving intensity." This study defines one component of driving intensity to be the increased probability of commuting by automobile. The results show that modal shifts occur when risk perceptions for a given mode are reduced. To demonstrate potential risk-compensating effects within the transportation system, an estimate of changes in accident fatalities due to commuting is derived using rough estimates of fatalities per person-mile travelled. It is shown that a given change in the perceived risk of commuting by automobile results in a less than proportionate change in net commuting fatalities. The relative magnitude is dependent on how objective reductions in risk translate into perceived reductions in risk. This study also shows that perceived safety improvements in bicycle transportation have an aggregate elasticity value that is greater than one. This means that bicycle safety improvements attract proportionately more people to bicycle commuting (i.e. a 10% increase in safety results in a greater than 10% increase in the share of people bicycle commuting).

Accidents, Traffic↗
PubMed1985

Cerebrospinal fluid sodium concentration and salt appetite.

Infusion into a lateral brain ventricle (IVT) of different hypertonic (0.7 M) saccharide solutions decreased [Na+] of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Increased Na appetite of moderately Na-deplete sheep was observed during infusion of mannitol, L-glucose or L-fucose, while no change was observed during infusion of D-glucose, D-fucose, D-mannose, 2-deoxy-D-glucose, 3-O-methyl-glucose or fructose. In other experiments, increased Na appetite was observed during infusion of 2.3 mM phlorizin (a relatively specific blocker of Na-coupled glucose transport into cells) or 2.3 mM phlorizin plus 0.7 M D-glucose. In addition, phlorizin eliminated the characteristic decrease in Na appetite but did not affect the increase in water intake caused by IVT infusion of hypertonic NaCl which increased [Na+] of CSF. The results suggest that: (a) there are sensors within the neuropil which respond to change of [Na+] and influence Na appetite, and that these changes of [Na+] are induced deep within the neuropil by those saccharides which do not cross the blood-brain barrier or enter cells; change of CSF[Na+] alone is not sufficient to alter appetite but a change in brain extracellular fluid (ECF)[Na+] is probably necessary; (b) the theory is advanced that the stimulus for altered Na intake could be altered brain ECF[Na+] producing a change in cerebral intracellular fluid (ICF)[Na+] of the sensors; and (c) phlorizin, in reducing or blocking Na-coupled glucose transport, could increase Na appetite by producing a fall in ICF[Na+] of the specific neurones subserving sodium appetite or prevent a decrease in Na appetite caused by IVT infusion of hypertonic NaCl by preventing an increase in ICF[Na+] of this same neuronal system.

Animals↗
PubMed1995

An abstract to concrete shift in the development of biological thought: the insides story.

For more than a century, theorists of cognitive development have embraced some form of the thesis that cognitive development proceeds from concrete to abstract knowledge. In contrast to this view, we suggest an abstract to concrete shift in the development of biological thought. In five studies we examine children's expectations for what could be inside animals and machines and we find that children of all ages respond systematically, revealing abstract expectations for how the insides of animals and machines should differ. By 8 years, children seem to have more concrete expectations for the nature of insides, and are substantially more accurate than preschoolers. More broadly, we suspect that an abstract to concrete progression may capture important features of how knowledge develops in the realm of biological thought and in many other areas of understanding as well.

Age Factors↗