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PubMedDate not supplied

Building a family: unplanned events.

Couples in developed societies are often unsuccessful in achieving precise family building goals despite the widespread use of birth control. Unplanned events that frustrate reproductive intentions to varying degrees include contraceptive failure, sterility, miscarriage, prolonged conception delay, undesired sex combination of offspring, divorce, and the death of a spouse or a child. This paper reviews the probability of the occurrence of these events using US data. It is concluded that the large majority of newlyweds will experience at least one unplanned event during the family building phase of the life cycle.

Congenital Abnormalities↗
PubMed1983

An integrated system for demographic estimation from two age distributions.

This paper presents a simple method for estimating a birth rate and a level of mortality for an intercensal period. The birth rate is estimated from the intercept of a line fitted to data and the level of mortality from the slope of that line. The formula that is developed is based upon a recent generalization of stable population relations. An estimate of childhood mortality level is an optional but significant piece of additional input. An important by-product of the procedure is an estimate of the true age distribution.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1983

A simple model for linking life tables by survival-mortality ratios.

Patterns of variation in mortality can be studied by measuring changes in selected life table functions. A model is proposed in which the rate of change over time in the life table survivorship probability at any age has been assumed as proportional to the product of its own value and its complementary probability or the probability of dying by that age, where the proportion is the same for all ages and depends only on the time duration between successive life tables. The end result is that the logit functions of the survivorship probabilities at two points in time are linearly related with a slope of one. The projecting power of the model has been tested by using U.S. life tables for the years 1950 and 1970 as well as Coale and Demeny's regional model life tables. In the latter case, the model produced surprisingly close matches even when the expectations of life differed by as much as 20 years.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1981

Perinatal outcome in Western Australia, 1968 to 1976. Perinatal mortality and birthweight.

Trends in perinatal mortality and low birth-weight in Western Australia were analysed by means of a linked file of perinatal death and birth registration papers for the years 1968 to 1975. Stillbirth rates fell only slightly, and there was no improvement in low birthweight stillbirth rates. There was increased ascertainment of low birthweight stillbirths after 1968 when the definition changed. Neonatal mortality fell markedly after 1971, much of the fall being due to a shift in the birthweight distribution towards heavier babies, particularly in males. The proportion of babies with birthweights of less than 2500 g fell from nearly 6% to 5.3%. The impact of changes in the obstetric care of premature labour were minimal up to 1975, with rural (away from specialist care) low birthweights rates differing only slightly from metropolitan rates. Social and demographic differences probably account for the major differences in stillbirth rates between areas. Neonatal mortality rates in low birthweight babies showed a definite advantage for babies living close to neonatal intensive care facilities. However, decisions to expand neonatal intensive care facilities to rural areas need to take into account other adverse perinatal risk factors.

Australia↗
PubMed1980

Estimating the effect of child mortality on the number of births.

This article rigorously derives the properties of the regression of births on child deaths. It is shown how the raw regression coefficient may be corrected for the effects of fertility on mortality so that the rate at which dead children are replaced may be estimated. The method is applied to data from Colombia. It is found that the mortality rate differs across individuals and is correlated with fertility. Such conditions vitiate the use of birth intervals and parity progresssion ratios yet can be dealth with using the new method. On average each death produces 0.2 new births as a direct result of the death. Fertility hoarding may raise the total fertility response to roughly one-half birth per death.

Attitude↗