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PubMed1993

Risk factors for exposure to arsenic at a hazardous waste site.

Communities surrounding the Rocky Mountain Arsenal (RMA), a Superfund site in Colorado, were studied in order to determine whether exposures to arsenic were greater among persons who resided there than among residents of a comparison area. A census was conducted in areas adjacent to the RMA and in a comparison area 12-15 miles distant. From a stratified random sample, 469 persons were interviewed and urine samples obtained. Arsenic was detected in urine from 43 (9.2%) of the 469 persons sampled at a detection limit of 10 ppb. Trace levels of arsenic (detectable, but non-quantifiable) were found in 184 (39.2%) of those persons sampled. Neither the frequency of detection, the arithmetic mean nor the geometric mean values for urine arsenic was found to be statistically different when persons living near the site were compared to persons from the more distant comparison area. Therefore, the data were pooled across the study areas to evaluate risk factors for exposure to arsenic in this population-based sample. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the risk of arsenic exposure associated with variables included in the interviews while controlling for confounding. Pathways for exposure to arsenic were evaluated through analysis of residence history, occupation, hobbies, dietary habits, water supply, housing and activity patterns. Children of Hispanic origin or non-white race, children who drank less than three glasses of water daily, and children who spent more time outdoors had an increased risk of having > or = 10 ppb of arsenic in their urine. Among adults, younger persons, especially those less than 40 years of age, persons of Hispanic origin or nonwhite race, and those employed in occupations where arsenic is likely to be found had an increased risk of having > or = 10 ppb of urine arsenic. Consumption of red wine or fish during the week prior to sampling was associated with trace levels of arsenic in urine.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1998

Guideline generation from data by induction of decision tables using a Bayesian network framework.

Decision tables can be used to represent practice guidelines effectively. In this study we adopt the powerful probabilistic framework of Bayesian Networks (BN) for the induction of decision tables. We discuss the simplest BN model, the Naive Bayes and extend it to the Two-Stage Naive Bayes. We show that reversal of edges in Naive Bayes and Two-stage Naive Bayes results in simple decision table and hierarchical decision table respectively. We induce these graphical models for dementia severity staging using the Clinical Dementia Rating Scale (CDRS) database from the University of California, Irvine, Alzheimer's Disease Research Center. These induced models capture the two-stage methodology clinicians use in computing the global CDR score by first computing the six category scores of memory, orientation, judgment and problem solving, community affairs, home and hobbies and personal care, and then the global CDRS. The induced Two-Stage models also attain a clinically acceptable performance when compared to domain experts and could serve as useful guidelines for dementia severity staging.

Algorithms↗

PubMed1998

[Ronald Ross: a century of the transfer of malaria by mosquitoes].

Ronald Ross is a brilliant and polyvalent mind. When orientated towards medicine he took the training amateurishly and ended up with a limited qualification. After 2 years as a ship doctor, he attended the compulsory complementary training in order to be admissible in the IMS, the garrison life left him with plenty of time to engage in his hobby's: painting for a short while, writing, poetry and mathematics. By the end of his first term he questioned the sense of his medical activities and decided, with a view to his career, to acquire a Public Health diploma and some complementary bacteriology. During his second term the malaria problem drew his attention. As he was unable to detect the parasite of Laveran in the blood of patients with malarial fevers he concluded that the parasite had been some lucky microscopic finding without any value and turned this parasite into ridicule. During his leave in 1894 he met Manson, who showed him the technique to put the parasite in evidence and convinced him to search for its vector which, to his opinion, should be a mosquito. Ross decided to follow this lead. With his minimal parasitological knowledge and an entomological background limited to the external appearance of mosquitoes he endeavoured to establish the life cycle of the malarial parasites. Notwithstanding some service bounded transfers, he followed the fate of the filaments of the crescents and discovered the parasite on the stomachwall of dapled-winged mosquitoes. During his special mission in Calcutta and in the absence of suitable malaria infections in man he shifted to bird proteosoma (now P. relictum) with a grey mosquito (culex) as vector. He demonstrated the complete life-cycle ending in the salivary glands of the mosquitoes and succeeded in transmitting this infection by mosquito-bites in healthy birds. This climax in his research was crowned by the attribution in 1902 of the Nobel Prize for Medicine. In the mean time he resigned from the IMS and was appointed as "Lecturer on Tropical Diseases" at the Liverpool School. He reoriented his activities to the prevention of malaria by control of the vector in its aquatic larval stage, which he tried out and promoted during his journeys to the West African Coast and other countries. His current were variegated but without salient details. Through the survey of the parasite index and the assessment of the spleen rate in children he founded the malariometry as a epidemiological tool, focussed attention on the relation of malaria and the community and on the complexity of the transmission dynamics. By handing in his resignation at the Liverpool School and moving to London he hampered further his scientific productivity. The tardy foundation of the Ross Institute did not stimulate a new impetus. He suffered a stroke which left him partially crippled an he died in his Institute.

Animals↗

PubMed1951