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Measuring the costs of children: an alternative approach.

Problems related to the concept of the "cost of a child", more commonly known as the general equivalence scale, are reviewed. The importance of this concept is noted with regard to both theoretical and empirical studies relating to taxation, poverty, income distribution, dietary needs, income maintenance programs, supplementary and child benefits, and other social security payments. "This paper proposes a new methodology for calculating the scale using a framework which is consistent with utility theory and which overcomes the identification problem without having to enforce the arbitrary prior assumptions of recent studies. The proposed method allows easy calculation of not only the basic 'scale' parameter but also how it varies with price and reference utility. [The author illustrates] the usefulness of the procedure by estimating on U.K. budget data at two different levels of aggregation and employing two sets of quite different functional forms. The results are plausible, compare favourably with one another and, hence, confirm the robustness and usefulness of the proposed procedure."

Adolescent↗

Forecasting metropolitan and urban subregional population changes and their resource use implications: methodology and example--Sydney, Australia.

This paper is concerned with the methodology of forecasting population change and structures of large cities and their major subregions. "The model isolates quantifiable base populations and their growth, and international, inter-state and city-hinterland migration streams and the national increase attributable to each, and intra-urban mobility, as components of growth and change." The model is applied to data for Sydney, Australia, and its applicability to other urban systems is considered.

Australia↗

The use of official sub-national population projections in England: Phase 1, central government departments and public utilities.

"The use made of the official population projections and the derivative household and labour supply projections has been investigated recently in England through a survey of user and potential user organizations. In view of the rather complex arrangements for producing the official projections, the paper begins by providing a summary of what projections are prepared and by whom.... The main part...presents an analysis of the results of the survey...concerned with who uses the projections, the factors influencing the use and value of projections and the demands for an extension of the current service."

Developed Countries↗

Neonatal tetanus estimates of mortality derived from a cluster survey in northern Nigeria.

A two-stage cluster survey of deaths from neonatal tetanus (NNT) was carried out in Kano metropolis, Northern Nigeria in order to estimate the mortality from the disease. Estimates of mortality were obtained by three different methods which were compared. According to clinical diagnosis, mortality was 20.6/1000 live-births while reports of 4-14 day deaths gave a figure of 11.4/1000 live-births. From information volunteered by informants, it appeared to be only 4.6/1000 live-births. NNT accounted for 68% neonatal deaths. The sex-specific mortality rates were 23.4 and 17.9 per 1000 live-births for males and females respectively. There was, however, no significant association between sex and death from neonatal tetanus. The mortality for the first 6 months of recall period was 15.2/1000 live-births and 24.2/1000 live-births for the last 6 months. There was also no significant association between recall period and death. In view of the markedly different estimates by the various methods of diagnosis, retrospective clinical diagnosis is suggested for community-based surveys of mortality related to neonatal tetanus.

Birth Rate↗

Forecasting the German population with Monte Carlo methods.

"This paper presents an approach of constructing confidence intervals by means of Monte Carlo simulation. This technique attempts to incorporate the uncertainty involved in projecting the [West] German population by letting the fertility, mortality and net immigration rates vary as a random variable with a specific distribution. Since fertility and migration are by far the most volatile, and therefore, the most critical components to population forecasting, this technique has the potential of accounting for this uncertainty, if the subjective distributions are specified with enough care."

Developed Countries↗

Guidelines for rapid estimation of the direct and indirect costs of HIV infection in a developing country.

The economic impact of AIDS may be especially severe in developing nations because of the additional burden on scarce health care resources and the potential loss of human capital. We describe a methodology for estimating the direct and indirect costs of HIV infection. Our approach is designed for the typical environment of international economic consulting, where time is short, and data sparse. We focus on HIV rather than AIDS because the only way now known to prevent AIDS is to prevent HIV infection.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

Problems of depopulation of rural areas in Poland after 1950.

"This paper considers the course of rural-to-urban migration processes in Poland from 1950 to 1988 against the background of the general demographic transformations in the country. It also considers changes in the population of particular voivodships (provinces) and [gminas] (communes) over the period 1970-1985, with an indication of the spatial concentration of the phenomenon. It concludes with a forecast of trends to the year 2000, based on these observed changes."

Demography↗

Confidence intervals for population projections based on Monte Carlo methods.

"This paper presents an approach of constructing confidence intervals by means of Monte Carlo simulation. This technique attempts to incorporate the uncertainty involved in projecting human populations by letting the fertility and net immigration rates vary as a random variable with a specific distribution. Since fertility and migration are by far the most volatile, and therefore, the most critical components to population forecasting, this technique has the potential of accounting for this uncertainty, if the subjective distributions are specified with enough care. Considering the results of the model for the U.S. in 2082, for example, it is shown that the population will number between 255 million and 355 million with a probability of 90 percent."

Americas↗

A log-linear approach to disaggregated micro-level population forecasts.

"This paper proposes the use of a log-linear model to obtain long-range micro-level population projections from the aggregative projections. The proposed model is tested using U.S. data. The total population of households is decomposed into 120 subgroups on the basis of the household's region of location, age, size and the female's employment status. The estimated number of households from the log-linear technique is compared against the random-walk and time-trend methods. A comparison of the size of the observed and estimated subgroups for the years 1960 and 1980 suggests that the log-linear technique is superior to the other two methods. Five different measures of errors are used to evaluate the projections."

Age Factors↗

Stochastic methods in population forecasting.

"This paper presents a stochastic version of the demographic cohort-component method of forecasting future population. In this model the sizes of future age-sex groups are non-linear functions of random future vital rates. An approximation to their joint distribution can be obtained using linear approximations or simulation. A stochastic formulation points to the need for new empirical work on both the autocorrelations and the cross-correlations of the vital rates. Problems of forecasting declining mortality and fluctuating fertility are contrasted. A volatility measure for fertility is presented. The model can be used to calculate approximate prediction intervals for births using data from deterministic cohort-component forecasts. The paper compares the use of expert opinion in mortality forecasting with simple extrapolation techniques to see how useful each approach has been in the past. Data from the United States suggest that expert opinion may have caused systematic bias in the forecasts."

Age Distribution↗

Population, labour force and unemployment in Andalusia: prospects for 1993.

"This paper is concerned with forecasting population, employment, labour force and unemployment in Andalusia [Spain] to 1993. For this purpose, a block-recursive demoeconomic model is presented. The demographic submodel is based on the component-cohort method of forecasting population by age and sex. The economic submodel uses econometric and time series analysis to forecast employment both in the medium and short-term. In the labour market part, the labour force is forecasted taking into account the encouraged-discouraged worker effects of changes in the demand for labour."

Age Factors↗

Stochastic demographic forecasting.

"This paper describes a particular approach to stochastic population forecasting, which is implemented for the U.S.A. through 2065. Statistical time series methods are combined with demographic models to produce plausible long run forecasts of vital rates, with probability distributions. The resulting mortality forecasts imply gains in future life expectancy that are roughly twice as large as those forecast by the Office of the Social Security Actuary.... Resulting stochastic forecasts of the elderly population, elderly dependency ratios, and payroll tax rates for health, education and pensions are presented."

Adult↗

Forecasting U.S. population totals with the Box-Jenkins approach.

"The use of the Box-Jenkins approach for forecasting the population of the United States up to the year 2080 is discussed. It is shown that the Box-Jenkins approach is equivalent to a simple trend model when making long-range predictions for the United States. An investigation of forecasting accuracy indicates that the Box-Jenkins method produces population forecasts that are at least as reliable as those done with more traditional demographic methods."

Americas↗