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Projections of households and household populations by household size propensities.

"This paper describes a method for constructing projections of numbers of households of various types and the numbers of people in that structure. The method uses the concept of household size propensity.... Using data from the 1981 and 1986 Censuses and population projections to the year 2011, the method produces projections of Australian households and household populations by size of household for five-year intervals from 1991 to 2011."

Age Factors↗

Researching the public/private mix in health care in a Thai urban area: methodological approaches.

The private health sector has been growing rapidly in many low and middle income countries, yet not enough is known about its sources of finance or characteristics of its users. Moreover, health care reform measures are leading to alterations in the mix of public and private finance and provision, increasing further the need for information. This paper presents and evaluates some research methods which can be used to collect information relevant to considering policies on the public/private mix. They comprise a household survey, a health diary and interview survey, a bed census, and a health resource survey. Each method is described as it was used in a study in a large urban setting in Thailand, and strengths and weaknesses of the methods are identified. The use of data to estimate the shares of public and private finance and provision, and particularly private sources of finance of public hospitals and public sources of finance for private hospitals, is demonstrated. Policy issues highlighted by the data are identified.

Health Care Reform↗

Information in medical decision making: how consistent is our management?

BACKGROUND: The use of outcomes data in clinical environments requires a correspondingly greater variety of information used in decision making, the measurement of quality, and clinical performance. As information becomes integral in the decision-making process, trustworthy decision support data are required. METHODS: Using data from a national census of certified health information managers, variation in automated data quality management practices was examined. RESULTS: Relatively low overall adoption of automated data management exists in health care organizations, with significant geographic and practice setting variation. Nonuniform regional adoption of computerized data management exists, despite national mandates that promote and in some cases require uniform adoption. Overall, a significant number of respondents (42.7%) indicated that they had not adopted policies and procedures to direct the timeliness of data capture, with 57.3% having adopted such practices. CONCLUSIONS: The inconsistency of patient data policy suggests that provider organizations do not use uniform information management methods, despite growing federal mandates to do so.

Administrative Personnel↗

Competing definitions of contextual environments.

BACKGROUND: The growing interest in the effects of contextual environments on health outcomes has focused attention on the strengths and weaknesses of alternate contextual unit definitions for use in multilevel analysis. The present research examined three methods to define contextual units for a sample of children already enrolled in a respiratory health study. The Inclusive Equal Weights Method (M1) and Inclusive Sample Weighted Method (M2) defined communities using the boundaries of the census blocks that incorporated the residences of the CHS participants, except that the former estimated socio-demographic variables by averaging the census block data within each community, while the latter used weighted proportion of CHS participants per block. The Minimum Bounding Rectangle Method (M3) generated minimum bounding rectangles that included 95% of the CHS participants and produced estimates of census variables using the weighted proportion of each block within these rectangles. GIS was used to map the locations of study participants, define the boundaries of the communities where study participants reside, and compute estimates of socio-demographic variables. The sensitivity of census variable estimates to the choice of community boundaries and weights was assessed using standard tests of significance. RESULTS: The estimates of contextual variables vary significantly depending on the choice of neighborhood boundaries and weights. The choice of boundaries therefore shapes the community profile and the relationships between its components (variables). CONCLUSION: Multilevel analysis concerned with the effects of contextual environments on health requires careful consideration of what constitutes a contextual unit for a given study sample, because the alternate definitions may have differential impact on the results. The three alternative methods used in this research all carry some subjectivity, which is embedded in the decision as to what constitutes the boundaries of the communities. The Minimum Bounding Rectangle was preferred because it focused attention on the most frequently used spaces and it controlled potential aggregation problems. There is a need to further examine the validity of different methods proposed here. Given that no method is likely to capture the full complexity of human-environment interactions, we would need baseline data describing people's daily activity patterns along with expert knowledge of the area to evaluate our neighborhood units.

Adolescent↗

Case studies on the use and accuracy of synthetic estimates: unemployment and housing applications.

A description is given of unemployment synthetic estimates for counties, based on the 1970 Census of Population. The distribution of the method error of these estimates is given, as well as the relative accuracy of these estimates. Implications for intercensal estimates based on regression models are considered. Vacancy rates from the 1970 Census of Housing are discussed. Estimates of 1970 estimates of dilapidated housing units with all plumbing facilities and their accuracy are analyzed.

Demography↗

[Estimate of the owned canine and feline populations in urban area in Brazil].

OBJECTIVE: Given the importance of assessing owned dog and cat populations to adequate planning and evaluation of rabies control measures in urban areas, it is proposed the use of an estimate of these populations based on human population parameters. METHODS: The ratio between human population and owned animal (dogs and cats) population was calculated in the municipality of Taboão da Serra, state of São Paulo, Brazil. This municipality was divided into two distinct social and economic homogeneous areas through k-mean algorithm, allowing for comparison between the ratios of the two homogeneous areas. RESULTS: A 5.14 ratio was calculated for human and dog populations and a 30.57 ratio for human and feline populations. A significant difference was not observed when comparing the ratios for human and animal populations of the two homogeneous areas. CONCLUSIONS: An estimate of owned dog and cat populations based on the human population is the better choice for assessing the animal population instead of an animal census because it can be easily implemented.

Animals↗

A demographic approach to the evaluation of the 1986 census and the estimates of Canada's population.

"A significant increase in coverage error in the 1986 [Canadian] Census is revealed by both the Reverse Record Check and the demographic method presented in this paper. Considerable attention is paid to an evaluation of the various components of population growth, especially interprovincial migration. The paper concludes with an overview of two alternative methods for generating postcensal estimates: the currently-in-use, census-based model, and a flexible model using all relevant data in combination with the census."

Americas↗

Opportunistic sampling from early childhood centres: a substitute for random sampling to determine lead and iron status of pre-school children?

This report compares the results from two sampling strategies used to determine the prevalence of elevated blood lead concentrations and iron status in 12-36 month old children in Central Sydney. The two methods were stratified random sampling using census collector districts and an opportunistic sampling strategy using client registers at Early Childhood Centres (ECCs). The response rates were 75.3% (n = 718 of whom 198 were aged 12-36 months) and 24.1% (n = 304) respectively. The geometric mean blood lead concentrations were 0.40 and 0.34 mumol/L respectively (p = 0.001). The traditional random sampling prevalence survey identified a significantly higher proportion of children with blood lead concentrations greater than 0.48 (OR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.40-0.93) and 0.72 mumol/L (OR = 0.44, 95% CI 0.21-0.92) compared to the simpler opportunistic survey. The median plasma ferritin concentration for both studies was 19 micrograms/L (p = 0.4). The prevalence of iron depletion, iron deficiency and iron deficiency anaemia was not significantly different between the two studies. In conclusion, opportunistic sampling through ECCs does not appear to be a substitute for the traditional random sampling prevalence surveys of determine the prevalence of elevated blood lead concentrations in pre-school children in Central Sydney. However, opportunistic sampling through ECCs may be an appropriate method for monitoring iron status, in particular iron depletion, in pre-school children in Central Sydney.

Anemia, Iron-Deficiency↗

[An adjustment to the age structure of the Italian population in the 1971 census].

"Having verified, in the 1971 [Italian] census, the presence of certain anomalous data for cohorts born in 1900, 1911, 1920, 1924, 1930, 1936, 1940, 1948, 1950 and 1960, we assessed the size of the error and estimated the new population total which emerged both by age and year of birth. The method used [is similar] to more classical methods to correct biases in age structure in previous censuses and in those countries where the data available are somewhat lacking. The adjusted values, referring to Italy as a whole, are contained in the text...." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE)

Age Distribution↗

[Faculty placement - a problem in psychiatric care].

The article reports on different components of misplacement as an important problem in the psychiatric care. Basing on a census of all in-patients of the Psychiatrische Universitätsklinik Bern (n = 551) different methods of evaluating misplacement are discussed. Some results of the census: - two thirds of the patients suffer from psychoses, another 13% from oligophrenia: - 46% of the patients are older than 60 years; - 72% have been in hospital for more than one year, 30% even for more than 20 years; - a quarter of the patients need special care. Psychiatrists and nursing staff agree that 198 (= 36%) of the 551 patients do not need any psychiatric treatment or nursing. From this point of view these patients have to be regarded as misplaced in the Psychiatrische Universitätsklinik Bern.

Adult↗

Census-derived estimates of fertility by duration since first marriage in the Republic of Korea.

This paper estimates ever-married birth rates by age and duration since first marriage and ever-married total fertility rates for the Republic of Korea, derived by applying an extension of the own-children method of fertility estimation to the 1975 and 1980 censuses. Since each census provides annual estimates for the 15-year period previous to enumeration, there is a ten-year period of overlapping estimates that facilitates checks for consistency and accuracy. Comparisons are also made with estimates derived from the 1974 Korea National Fertility Survey, which was part of the World Fertility Survey. The method works well, except in its application to the 1975 Census where the evidence suggests considerable misreporting of age at first marriage because of the way the question was asked and coded. Results confirm that ever-married fertility fell substantially in Korea between 1961 and 1980, with a temporary resurgence in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Ever-married fertility rose at younger ages and shorter durations and fell at older ages and longer durations. Ever-married fertility differentials by urban-rural residence and by education were usually in the expected direction, with urban fertility generally lower than rural fertility and the fertility of those with more education usually lower than the fertility of those with less education. Differential ever-married fertility by urban-rural residence and education declined over the estimation period.

Adolescent↗

[Estimate of the prevalence of Huntington disease in the Valencia region using the capture-recapture method].

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of Huntington's disease in order to devise a programme for diagnosis and prevention. Because of the characteristics of this disease, which is hereditary and of low incidence, few epidemiological studies have been carried out in Spain. Many studies (Medline 1990-1996) give cross-checking of registers as the key to determining the relative extent of the illness. The findings of this comparison of registers are not limited to the numerical quantification of a health problem, but are combined with active case search strategies, since there is now an approximation of probability to a previously unknown area of the disease. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prevalence in the Valencia Region (Spain), which has a population census of 3,873,812 inhabitants, was estimated by means of the probability method known as capture-recapture. The estimated maximum probability and its confidence interval were calculated. The sources of information used were clinical histories from the regional hospitals and official figures of registered deaths during the period 1987-1992. RESULTS: It was found that there were 41 cases seen in the regional hospitals and 17 deaths recorded in the official statistics, while 4 cases coincided in both sets of statistics. Recovery of 45 cases histories enabled an analysis to be made of the relationship between the disease, sex, age of onset of symptoms, and family history. CONCLUSION: The estimated prevalence was 5.38 x 10(5). The most notable finding was that of a systematically earlier onset of symptoms in women, which was greater when the family history was on the paternal side.

Adult↗

Validation of recall of breast and cervical cancer screening by women in an ethnically diverse population.

BACKGROUND: Screening mammogram and Pap smear rates are lower for women in underserved racial and ethnic groups, yet may be overestimated due to reliance on patients' self-reports. The purpose of this study was to determine accuracy of self-reports of mammograms and Pap smears in a multiethnic, multilingual population of African American, Latina, Chinese, Filipina, and White women residing in low-income census tracts of Alameda County, California. METHODS: Following a baseline telephone survey of 1,464 women regarding receipt of mammograms and Pap smears, we examined computerized and written medical records to validate the dates and locations of tests reported by women. RESULTS: Of 1,464 subjects, 94.9% reported having had a Pap smear, and 87% reported having had a mammogram. For Pap smears, in a subsample of 448 cases, we validated only 69.4% of the women's self-reports, and for mammography, in a subsample of 846 women, we validated only 75.4% of the self-reports. Validation rates differed significantly by ethnicity and site of care for both Pap smears and mammograms. CONCLUSIONS: Population estimates of breast and cervical cancer screening rates based upon patient self-reports need to be adjusted downward, by as much as one-quarter to one-third, for low-income, ethnic women.

Adult↗

Urinary calcium excretion in healthy Turkish children.

The aim of this study was to establish the age related reference percentile values for urinary calcium excretion in healthy Turkish children, and to determine the frequency of hypercalciuria and also the factors affecting urinary calcium excretion. A cross-sectional study was performed in Aydin, in western Turkey during winter. Study population was constituted from seventeen districts of this region (sample size was calculated from a formula using the results of the last population census) by stratified and random sampling methods. Urinary calcium excretion was measured as the calcium/creatinine concentration ratio in the second non-fasting urine samples. A total of 2252 children (1132 male) with a mean age of 8.57 +/- 4.44 years (ranged from 15 days to 15 years) were studied. The mean of urinary calcium/creatinine concentration ratio was calculated as 0.092 +/- 0.123. The percentile values between 3rd and 97th for urinary calcium/creatinine concentration ratio according to age were calculated and shown as multiple line graphs. Hypercalciuria prevalence was found as 9.6% when the upper limit of urinary calcium/creatinine concentration ratio was accepted as 0.21. Urinary calcium/creatinine concentration ratio of the children from different districts, altitudes, and ethnic origins were statistically different. Poor negative correlations were found between urinary calcium/creatinine concentration ratio and age and weight. No differences in urinary calcium/creatinine concentration ratios were observed in terms of sexes, diet, physical activity, urolithiasis in the family, symptoms related to hypercalciuria, amount of calcium in drinking water, and urine strip analysis. In conclusion, reference values for urinary calcium/creatinine concentration ratios should be established for children in each country and also in each geographic region.

Adolescent↗

Heavy equipment and truck-related deaths on excavation work sites.

PROBLEM: Contact with objects and equipment is the third leading cause of death in construction. This study examines heavy equipment- and truck-related deaths in the excavation work industry in construction. METHODS: The Bureau of Labor Statistics Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries identified 253 heavy equipment related deaths on construction sites in the Excavation Work industry for the years 1992-2002. RESULTS: Heavy equipment operators and construction laborers made up 63% of the heavy equipment- and truck-related deaths. Backhoes and trucks were involved in half the deaths. Rollovers were the main cause of death of heavy equipment operators. For workers on foot and maintenance workers, being struck by heavy equipment or trucks (especially while backing up for workers on foot), and being struck by equipment loads or parts were the major causes of death. DISCUSSION: Ensuring adequate rollover protective structures for heavy equipment, requiring fastening of seat belts, adoption of a lock-out/tagout standard, establishing restricted access zones around heavy equipment, and requiring spotters for workers who must be near heavy equipment or trucks would reduce the risk of heavy equipment- and truck-related deaths in construction. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Safety of heavy equipment operators in particular is a major concern in excavation that needs to be addressed.

Accidents, Occupational↗

Prevalence of age-related macular degeneration in Latinos: the Los Angeles Latino eye study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the age- and gender-specific prevalence of early age-related macular degeneration (AMD; drusen and retinal pigmentary abnormalities) and advanced AMD (exudative AMD and geographic atrophy) in Latinos. DESIGN: Population-based, cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS: Six thousand three hundred fifty-seven Latinos 40 years and older from 6 census tracts in Los Angeles, California. METHODS: The study cohort consisted of self-identified Latinos 40 years and over. Participants underwent a complete ophthalmologic examination, including stereoscopic macular photographs. Photographs were graded using a modified Wisconsin Age-Related Maculopathy Grading System. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of early AMD, drusen, geographic atrophy, and exudative AMD. RESULTS: Of the 7789 eligible subjects, 6357 participants (82%) completed an interview and clinical examination, and 5875 (75%) had gradable photographs. Prevalence of advanced AMD increased from 0% in those 40-49 years of age to 8.5% in those 80 or older; that of early AMD from 6.2% to 29.7%, that of retinal pigment abnormalities from 4.1% to 19.3%, that of large drusen (> or =125 microm in diameter) from 8.5% to 45.3%, that of soft drusen from 15.4% to 58.1%, and that of soft indistinct drusen from 3.6% to 30.8%. The prevalence of early AMD and advanced AMD lesions increased with age (P<0.0001). Early AMD was significantly more common in males than in females. Of all participants with early or late AMD, only 57% reported ever visiting an eye care practitioner, and only 21% in the last year. CONCLUSION: Detailed population-based estimates of AMD in Latinos are provided. Despite relatively high rates of early AMD, corresponding rates of advanced AMD are not high. Data on progression of the high rates of early AMD in Latinos require further study.

Adult↗

Prevalence of lens opacities in Latinos: the Los Angeles Latino Eye Study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the age- and gender-specific prevalence of posterior subcapsular (PSC), nuclear, cortical, and mixed lens opacities in a population-based sample of Latinos 40 years and older. DESIGN: Population-based, cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS: Six thousand three hundred fifty-seven Latinos 40 years and older from 6 census tracts in Los Angeles, California. METHODS: A population-based sample of Latinos underwent a complete eye examination, including assessment of presence and severity of lens opacification, using the slit lamp-based Lens Opacities Classification System II (LOCS II). All lens changes (including pseudophakia/aphakia); any nuclear, PSC, and cortical opacities; and nuclear-only, PSC-only, and cortical-only opacities were evaluated. Frequency distributions and chi-square test analyses were used to determine the age- and gender-specific prevalences for each opacity type. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalences of cortical, nuclear, and posterior subcapsular opacities. RESULTS: Of the 7789 eligible subjects, 6357 completed a clinical examination (82% participation rate). Of all participants with LOCS II grading, 20% had all lens changes, 7.6% had cortical-only opacities, 3.5% had nuclear-only opacities, 0.4% had PSC-only opacities, and 5.9% had mixed-type opacities. The prevalence of all types of lens opacities increased with age (P<0.0001). Of all participants with mixed opacities, 49% had monocular visual impairment and 20% had binocular impairment. Of all 6357 participants, 3.9% had undergone cataract extraction in at least one eye. CONCLUSION: Our data provide the first population-based estimates of the prevalence and severity of lens opacities in Latinos. Cortical opacities were the most common type. The high rate of visual impairment from lens opacities suggests that programs that increase access to cataract surgery for older Latinos could help to reduce the burden of visual impairment in the United States.

Adult↗

Prevalence and risk indicators of visual impairment and blindness in Latinos: the Los Angeles Latino Eye Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the age- and gender-specific prevalence and risk indicators of visual impairment and blindness in urban Latinos 40 years and older. DESIGN: Population-based cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS: Six thousand three hundred fifty-seven Latinos 40 years and older from 6 census tracts in Los Angeles, California. METHODS: Of the 6357 study participants, 6122 underwent a complete ophthalmologic examination at the clinical center, including measurement of best-corrected distance visual acuity (VA) using a standard Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study protocol. Age- and gender-specific prevalence of visual impairment and blindness were contrasted using Mantel-Haenszel procedures. Sociodemographic and clinical risk indicators of visual impairment were explored using stepwise logistic regression. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence and odds ratios for risk indicators of visual impairment and blindness. RESULTS: The overall prevalence for visual impairment (best-corrected VA of <==20/40 in the better eye) was 3.0% (n = 182) (range, 0.9% [40-49 years]-27.8% [>/=80 years]). The overall prevalence for blindness (best-corrected VA of <==20/200 in the better eye) was 0.4% (n = 26) (range, 0.2% [40-49 years]-4.2% [>/=80 years]). Visual impairment increased with age (P<0.0001) and was greater in women (P = 0.02). Independent risk indicators (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]) for visual impairment were age 70-79 years (2.8 [1.3-5.8]) or >/=80 years (8.7 [3.9-19.6]), history of ocular disease (3.2 [2.1-4.8]), being unemployed (3.3 [1.7-6.3]), diabetes (2.2 [1.5-3.2]), and being separated/divorced (1.8 [1.0-3.1]) or widowed (2.8 [1.8-4.4]). Participants with >/=12 years of education (0.5 [0.3-0.8]) were less likely to be visually impaired. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of visual impairment and blindness in Latinos are high, especially in older individuals. Better education and employment are likely to decrease the burden of visual impairment in Latinos.

Adult↗