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PubMed2005

Memory in the occurrence of earthquakes.

We study the statistics of the recurrence times tau between earthquakes above a certain magnitude M in six (one global and five regional) earthquake catalogs. We find that the distribution of the recurrence times strongly depends on the previous recurrence time tau0, such that small and large recurrence times tend to cluster in time. This dependence on the past is reflected in both the conditional mean recurrence time and the conditional mean residual time until the next earthquake, which increase monotonically with tau0. As a consequence, the risk of encountering the next event within a certain time span after the last event depends significantly on the past, an effect that has to be taken into account in any effective earthquake prognosis.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2003

Biochemical and pathological predictors of the recurrence of prostatic adenocarcinoma with seminal vesicle invasion.

PURPOSE: We assessed biochemical and pathological factors as predictors of recurrence in men with seminal vesicle invasion. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A consecutive series of 812 men who underwent radical retropubic prostatectomy between 1992 and 2000 included 106 (13%) with seminal vesicle invasion. Disease recurrence was defined as prostate specific antigen (PSA) 0.4 ng./ml. or greater. Patients with less than 12 months of followup, salvage radical retropubic prostatectomy, lymph node metastases and adjuvant therapy were excluded from study. Data on the remaining 66 cases were analyzed using the chi-square test, bivariate logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier analyses and Cox proportional regression. Variables included demographics, recurrence, time from surgery to recurrence, positive margins, capsular invasion, extracapsular extension, Gleason score (2 to 6, 7 and 8 to 10), and dichotomized values of preoperative PSA (10 or less versus 10 ng./ml.) and tumor volume (20% or less versus greater than 20%). RESULTS: Mean patient age was 62 years (range 48 to 74). At an average followup of 47.7 months (range 13 to 109) 53% of the patients were free of biochemical recurrence. Mean time to recurrence was 18.6 months (range 1.7 to 51.6). Univariate analyses revealed a statistical significant increased risk of recurrence in patients with PSA greater than 10 ng./ml. (p <0.0001), capsular invasion (p = 0.01) and age (p = 0.036). When adjusting for potential covariates, Cox proportional regression analysis indicated that higher PSA (hazard ratio 7.33, 95% CI 2.57 to 20.95), larger tumor volume (hazard ratio 5.64, 95% CI 1.97 to 16.19) and higher age (hazard ratio 1.13, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.22) were significantly associated with shorter time to recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: PSA greater than 10 ng./ml., tumor volume greater than 20% and age are significant predictors of recurrence after radical retropubic prostatectomy in patients with prostate cancer and seminal vesicle invasion. Hopefully future randomized trials may show a survival benefit of adjuvant therapy in patients at high risk.

Adenocarcinoma↗
PubMed2006

Short time to recurrence after hepatic resection correlates with poor prognosis in colorectal hepatic metastasis.

BACKGROUND: Early recurrence is a major problem after hepatic resection of colorectal hepatic metastasis (CHM). Our aim was to investigate the relationship between time to recurrence after CHM resection and overall survival. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was performed for 101 consecutive patients who underwent hepatic resection for CHM and have been followed more than 5 years. RESULTS: Among 101 patients, 82 (81%) had a recurrence. Overall survival of patients with recurrence within 6 months after CHM resection was significantly worse than that of patients with recurrence after more than 6 months (P < 0.01). Overall survival was poorer when time to recurrence was shorter. One of the reasons for poor prognosis of patients with recurrence within 6 months was that only a few patients could undergo a second resection for recurrence after CHM resection. Histological type, including poorly differentiated signet ring cell or mucinous adenocarcinoma in the primary tumor, bilobar metastases, microscopic positive surgical margin and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) above 15 ng/ml had predictive value for decreased recurrence-free survival after CHM resection. CONCLUSION: Short time to recurrence after CHM resection correlates with a poor prognosis. Histological type of poorly differentiated signet ring cell or mucinous adenocarcinoma in the primary tumor might be a predictor for early recurrence after CHM resection.

Adenocarcinoma↗
PubMed1987

Hypothesis testing of time-dependent recurrent events.

This paper examines the problem of hypothesis testing for comparison of time-dependent recurrent events between categorical exposure groups. We compare three methods (a summary chi-square test based on a generalization of the simple Poisson distribution, a chi-square test based on a generalization of the compound Poisson distribution, and a test on risk scores based on individual observed to expected ratios), when the dependent variable may be autocorrelated within an individual, and disease risk may be heterogeneous among subjects. We present a simulation study and an application to a cohort of sickle cell anaemia patients. With autocorrelation or heterogeneous risk present, the simple chi-square test is inappropriate, while the other two methods perform well. An attraction of the risk score method is its relative ease of application.

Anemia, Sickle Cell↗
PubMed2004

Semiparametric regression analysis on longitudinal pattern of recurrent gap times.

In longitudinal studies, individual subject may experience recurrent events of the same type over a relatively long period of time. The longitudinal pattern of gaps between successive recurrent events is often of great research interest. In this article, the probability structure of the recurrent gap times is first explored in the presence of censoring. According to the discovered structure, we introduce the stratified proportional reverse-time hazards models with unspecified baseline functions to accommodate individual heterogeneity, when the longitudinal pattern parameter is of main interest. Inference procedures are proposed and studied by way of proper riskset construction. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by the Monte Carlo simulations and an application to a well-known Denmark schizophrenia cohort study data set.

Age of Onset↗
PubMed1998

Prognostic features of teratomas with malignant transformation: a clinicopathological study of 21 cases.

PURPOSE: Teratomas with malignant transformation comprise up to 6% of metastatic teratomas. The prognosis of patients with these tumors can vary considerably. We delineate factors that may be related to prognosis in a cohort of men with teratoma with malignant transformation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed pathological features, treatment, response, recurrence, time to recurrence, subsequent followup and survival for 21 patients (median age 28 years) diagnosed with teratoma with malignant transformation during a 7-year period at our institution. RESULTS: Malignant nongerm cell elements were present in the primary tumor in 11 cases (52%). Of 18 patients with testicular primaries 17 (94%) presented with metastatic disease. Despite aggressive treatment with surgery and chemotherapy 17 of 21 cases (81%) recurred (median time 6 months). Overall, 5 patients (24%) died of disease (median survival 23 months), 5 (24%) are alive with metastases (median followup 41 months) and 11 (52%) have no evidence of disease (median followup 50 months). Progression/recurrence was substantially greater for 2 of 2 cases with a mediastinal origin, 3 of 4 with rhabdomyosarcomatous differentiation and 5 of 6 with neural differentiation compared with the remainder of the cohort (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Teratomas with malignant transformation are usually metastatic at presentation, have a high recurrence rate and are more aggressive than teratomas without malignant transformation. Prognosis is especially poor for mediastinal teratomas with malignant transformation and for those with neural or rhabdomyosarcomatous differentiation. Complete surgical resection of residual or recurrent disease appears to offer the best chance for prolonged survival.

Adolescent↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Use of fibrin glue in the treatment of pilonidal sinus disease: a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Pilonidal sinus (PS) disease of the sacrococcigeal region is an acquired condition resulting from penetration of shed hair shafts through the skin. Different types of operations have been described in the letterature. More recently fibrin glue has been used with succesfull. Aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of fibrin glue for the treatment of pilonidal sinus. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Eight patients age ranged 21,8 +/- 6,5 affected by PS disease of sacrococcigeal region were included in this study. All patients undergoing surgical operation under local anaesthesia. Following administration of 1% methylene blue through the main opening, a small vertical elliptical incision is maked including the entire sinus opening and an excision of PS was performed without entering the sinus cavity, removing a minimal amount of subcutaneous tissue. Afterwards the highly concentrated fibrin glue, containing 1,000 U/ml of thrombin was applied to cover the wound. Post-operative pain, analgesic consumption, duration of hospital stay, failure healing, the rate and time of recurrence, time to healing, time to return to work and post-operative complications were recordered. RESULTS: All patients expressed satisfaction with the procedure. Mean hospital stay was 5.4 +/- 2.1 hours. Healing was achieved after 25.8 +/- 13.2 days. The post-operative pain mean score was 3.8 +/- 2.1 in first day, 2,9 +/- 1,8 in third day and 1,3 +/- 0,8 in the seventh day. The mean analgesic consumption per week was 5,6 +/- 3,2 medications. Mean time to return to work was 5,3 +/- 2,1 days. CONCLUSION: The minimal excision of PS and application of fibrin glue is a non-invasive effective treatment, easy and simple to performe and not associated to recurrences. For these reasons this procedure in our opinion as the first line treatment for pilonidal sinus disease.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

General practice vs surgical-based follow-up for patients with colon cancer: randomised controlled trial.

This trial examined the optimal setting for follow-up of patients after treatment for colon cancer by either general practitioners or surgeons. In all, 203 consenting patients who had undergone potentially curative treatment for colon cancer were randomised to follow-up by general practitioners or surgeons. Follow-up guidance recommended three monthly clinical review and annual faecal occult blood tests (FOBT) and were identical in both study arms. Primary outcome measures (measured at baseline, 12 and 24 months were (1) quality of life, SF-12; physical and mental component scores, (2) anxiety and depression: Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and (3) patient satisfaction: Patient Visit-Specific Questionnaire. Secondary outcomes (at 24 months) were: investigations, number and timing of recurrences and deaths. In all, 170 patients were available for follow-up at 12 months and 157 at 24 months. At 12 and 24 months there were no differences in scores for quality of life (physical component score, P=0.88 at 12 months; P=0.28 at 24 months: mental component score, P=0.51, P=0.47; adjusted), anxiety (P=0.72; P=0.11) depression (P=0.28; P=0.80) or patient satisfaction (P=0.06, 24 months). General practitioners ordered more FOBTs than surgeons (rate ratio 2.4, 95% CI 1.4-4.4), whereas more colonoscopies (rate ratio 0.7, 95% CI 0.5-1.0), and ultrasounds (rate ratio 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-1.0) were undertaken in the surgeon-led group. Results suggest similar recurrence, time to detection and death rates in each group. Colon cancer patients with follow-up led by surgeons or general practitioners experience similar outcomes, although patterns of investigation vary.

Aged↗
PubMed1995

Patterns of recurrence after carbon dioxide laser excision of intraoral squamous cell carcinoma.

OBJECTIVE: To examine retrospectively consecutive patients treated with carbon dioxide laser excision of intraoral squamous cell carcinoma for the patterns of recurrence based on the location of the initial primary tumor and on the tumor stage. DESIGN: Retrospective chart review. SETTING: Tertiary care center including a university hospital and a Veterans Affairs Medical Center. PROCEDURES AND PATIENTS: Sixty-one procedures performed on 51 consecutive patients. The only patients not included were three who were unavailable for follow-up. The average follow-up was 32 months. If the patients whose follow-up was limited because of death are excluded, the average follow-up was 40 months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of recurrence, time to recurrence, development of second intraoral primary lesions or pulmonary metastases, and cause of death. RESULTS: A nearly equal incidence of recurrence irrespective of site of lesion (tongue, 42%; floor of mouth, 40%; and other oral cavity sites, 45%). Determinate survival differed by stage. Patients with T1 lesions showed a determinate survival rate of 80%; those with T2 or T3 lesions had a determinate survival rate of 57%; and those treated for recurrent disease had a determinate survival rate of 44%. CONCLUSIONS: Carbon dioxide laser excision of intraoral squamous cell carcinoma is a useful, advantageous method, but it appears to offer no advantage for recurrence over standard methods. Appropriate management of neck disease in patients with intraoral squamous cell carcinoma must be carefully considered. Patients with this potentially aggressive form of cancer deserve long-term follow-up.

Adult↗
PubMed1986

Optic disc hemorrhage in low-tension glaucoma.

The prevalence of optic disc hemorrhage (DH) was determined in groups consisting of 192 primary open-angle glaucoma, 113 primary angle-closure glaucoma, 78 low-tension glaucoma, and 473 normal patients. The DH was mot prevalent (20.5%) among low tension glaucoma patients (chi 2; P less than 0.001). The epidemiological features of DH were studied in 58 low-tension glaucoma patients by examining them every one to four weeks from 6 to 32 months. All the DHs but one took place within a seven-month follow-up and the incidence of DH varies from 0 to 10% during the 32-month follow-up period. The overall incidence of DH was 24.8% during that period of time. Recurrences were seen in 64% of the eyes and 92% of these occurred within 28 weeks following the previous hemorrhages. Ninety-two percent of all DHs were present for at least four weeks. Low-tension glaucoma eyes seem to consist of two different groups; one which develops recurrent DH and one which is very unlikely to bleed through its entire course.

Eye Diseases↗
PubMed2000

High tPA-expression in primary melanoma of the limb correlates with good prognosis.

To investigate whether the course of primary melanoma disease correlates with expression of the various components of the proteolytic plasminogen activation (PA) system, immunohistochemical stainings for activators of plasminogen (tissue type (tPA) and urokinase type (uPA)), inhibitors of plasminogen activation (type 1 (PAI-1) and type 2 (PAI-2)) and the receptor for uPA (uPAR) were performed on 214 routinely processed melanoma lesions. All lesions were primary cutaneous melanomas, minimally 1.5 mm thick, and derived from patients with only local disease at the moment of diagnosis (clinically stage II (T(3-4)N(0)M(0)), American Joint Committee on Cancer). Median patient follow-up was 6.1 years. Single variables as immunohistochemical staining results (extent of tumour cell staining, pattern of tumour cell staining and for some components also staining of stromal cells), histopathological and clinical parameters as well as treatment variables were analysed in order to assess their prognostic importance, in terms of time to recurrence, time to distant metastasis and duration of survival. The extent of tPA tumour cell positivity, categorized as 0-5%, 6-50% and 51-100%, appeared to be of importance for these end-points. Lesions with 51-100% tPA-positive tumour cells were found to have the best prognosis, whereas lesions with 6-50% tPA-positive tumour cells had the worst. Moreover, the prognostic significance of Breslow thickness, microscopic ulceration and sex was confirmed in this study. Multivariate analyses, incorporating these relevant factors, showed that the extent of tPA tumour cell positivity was an independent prognostic factor for distant metastasis-free interval (P = 0.012) and for the duration of survival (P = 0.043).

Adolescent↗
PubMedDate not supplied

A case control study on risk factors involved in inflammatory breast recurrence after breast-conserving surgery.

Recurrence that poses the biggest problem after breast-conserving surgery is local recurrence. Particularly, in the case of inflammatory breast recurrence which is rare but has a specific pathologic nature, it is important to elucidate the pathology and risk factors and to consider appropriate countermeasures. In the present study, we classified 133 cases of recurrence following breast-conserving surgery, collected from 18 key hospitals/institutes in Japan. Recurrence types were divided into three groups, namely, inflammatory breast recurrence, noninflammatory breast recurrence and distant metastasis only, and the risk factors involved in recurrence were investigated by the case control study allotting 2 controls to each case. The study population consisted of 9 cases of the inflammatory type, 64 cases of the noninflammatory type and 60 cases of distant metastasis. The significant risk factor for inflammatory breast recurrence was positive lymph node metastasis, which was significantly more frequent in lymphatic invasion-positive cases unlike in the distant metastasis group. The positive surgical margin and nonradiation therapy which have been shown to be significant risk factors for noninflammatory breast recurrence were entirely unrelated with inflammatory breast recurrence. In addition, the inflammatory-type recurrence time was as short as about 12 months irrespective of whether radiation therapy was performed or not. The inflammatory type was accompanied with local wide extension (cancerous embolus of the dermal lymphatic vessels), and distant metastasis (lymphangitis carcinomatosa) at the time of recurrence, and further surgery was impossible in most cases, with a significantly poorer prognosis than the other recurrence types. These findings suggest that this recurrence corresponds to the so-called 'occult' case of primary inflammatory breast carcinoma. We think it important to predict this recurrence by close pathological examination, particularly in patients with lymph node metastasis, and to consider appropriate measures.

Adenocarcinoma↗
PubMed2002

Efficacy of citalopram in the prevention of recurrent depression in elderly patients: placebo-controlled study of maintenance therapy.

BACKGROUND: The highly recurrent nature of major depression in the young and the elderly warrants long-term antidepressant treatment. AIMS: To compare the prophylactic efficacy of citalopram and placebo in elderly patients; to evaluate long-term tolerability of citalopram. METHOD: Out-patients, > or =65 years, with unipolar major depression (DSM-IV: 296.2 x or 296.3 x) and Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale score > or =22 were treated with citalopram 20-40 mg for 8 weeks. Responders continued on their final fixed dose of citalopram for 16 weeks before randomisation to double-blind treatment with citalopram or placebo for at least 48 weeks. RESULTS: Nineteen of the 60 patients using citalopram v. 41 of the 61 patients using placebo had recurrence. Time to recurrence was significantly different between citalopram- and placebo-patients, in favour of citalopram (log-rank test, P<0.0001). Long-term treatment was well tolerated. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term treatment with citalopram is effective in preventing recurrence of depression in the elderly and is well tolerated.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1990

[Evaluation of the effectiveness of vagotomy in uncomplicated duodenal ulcer based on its results 10 years after the operation].

Under analysis are results of vagotomy performed in 95 patients with uncomplicated ulcer of the duodenum after ineffective conservative treatment 10 years after operation. During this time recurrent ulcer developed in 26 patients (27.4%). The disease reappeared more frequently in patients with high level of night gastric secretion before surgery. Results of the operation in 25 patients (26.3%) could be estimated only as satisfactory because of various disorders (dumping-syndrome, diarrhea, gastric dyspepsia). But a usual basis for such an assessment was not a medial degree of some disorders (2 patients) but a combination of light degree disorders (23 patients). One patient was included into the IVth Wisik's group due to severe dyspepsia. Only 43 patients (45.3%) were included in the I and II groups by the Wisik's scheme. Results of vagotomy in patients who had no ulcer complications before operation were compared with the efficiency of vagotomy used totally for all indications and were found to be much worse. The authors make a conclusion that it is not expedient to widen indications to vagotomy at the expense of patients with uncomplicated ulcers.

Contraindications↗
PubMed1984

Natural cytotoxic cell activity linked to time of recurrence of herpes labialis.

Peripheral blood mononuclear leucocytes from patients with recurrent oral herpes labialis showed an enhanced spontaneous cytotoxic activity against HSV-1 infected target cells during the acute episode. A heightened cytotoxicity persisted for several weeks during prospective follow-up study of the donors, but fell to low levels during the last week before the next episode of herpes labialis. A correlation between natural cytotoxicity against HSV infected targets and pre-recurrence intervals was noted (r = 0.715, P less than 0.05). In parallel, recurrence of herpes labialis was accompanied by a marked increase in the percentage of T cells with Fc IgG receptors and in the percentage of natural cytotoxic lymphocytes, as defined by a newly described monoclonal antibody, HNC-1A3. Both these populations were significantly decreased during the last week before the next herpes labialis episode, suggesting a role for these cells in defence mechanisms involved in anti-HSV immunity.

Adult↗
PubMed1998

Implications of a failed prospective trial of adjuvant therapy after radical hysterectomy for stage Ib-IIa cervical carcinoma with pelvic node metastases.

BACKGROUND: Lymph node metastasis is established as a poor prognostic factor in cervical carcinoma patients undergoing primary surgery. However the optimal postoperative therapy for node-positive patients remains to be defined. MATERIALS AND METHODS: To determine the role of adjuvant therapy in stage Ib-IIa cervical carcinoma patients who had pelvic node metastases after radical hysterectomy, a single institutional randomized controlled trial with factorial design, comparing concurrent chemo-radiotherapy (CT + RT) versus chemotherapy (CT) or radiotherapy (RT) alone was conducted. Study endpoints included site of recurrence, time to recurrence, relapse-free and overall survivals, and toxicity of treatment. RESULTS: At a median follow-up of 61 months, the 6-year relapse-free and overall survival rates of the 39 patients entered into this trial were 78.2% and 85.2%, respectively. This trial was prematurely closed due to suboptimal accrual and protocol violation. It is inconclusive regarding the efficacy of CT because of the limitation of the sample size and the imbalance of prognostic features by actual treatment. A model for risk group classification of patients with stage Ib-II cervical carcinoma with pelvic node metastases from a retrospective analysis was validated by this prospective cohort. The results of this failed trial suggest that adjuvant CT alone seemed comparable to RT alone or CT + RT in survival but was associated with significantly less morbidity. CONCLUSION: It is warranted to consider a CT alone arm in comparison with either observation or CT + RT according to risk of recurrence in future prospective trials. However, this important issue can only be addressed by a large multicenter trial.

Adult↗
PubMed1997

Loco-regional recurrence following mastectomy for early breast carcinoma: efficacy of radiotherapy at the time of recurrence.

This study aims to define the risk factors for loco-regional relapse following mastectomy, and to assess the efficacy of radiotherapy at the time of relapse. To achieve this 272 patients with loco-regional relapse treated at a single institution with modified radical or radical mastectomy were reviewed. Tumour size, axillary node involvement and tumour grade were found to be significant risk factors for loco-regional recurrence of disease. Radiotherapy given at the time of relapse controlled disease in 61% of cases, compared with 34% of patients treated with systemic treatment only. Altogether, 146 (54%) of the 269 evaluable patients with local failure had uncontrolled disease at the same site, either at the time of death or at the date last seen. The result of this retrospective study showed that delayed radiotherapy was effective in controlling the disease in patients with developing loco-regional relapses. However, as adjuvant radiotherapy reduces the incidence of local disease recurrence it should be recommended to patients considered to be at high risk of local relapse following mastectomy; namely those with tumours bigger than 5 cm with four or more positive axillary nodes.

Adult↗
PubMed1992

Incidence and timing of recurrences of sudden death and ventricular tachycardia during antiarrhythmic drug treatment after myocardial infarction.

Incidence and timing of recurrences of sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT) or sudden death were studied in 206 patients who survived their first episode of ventricular fibrillation (VF; n = 52) or sustained VT (n = 154) after myocardial infarction. All patients were treated with (empirically selected) antiarrhythmic drugs; 49% received amiodarone. After a mean follow-up of 36 months, 64 patients (41%) in the VT group and 10 (19%) in the VF group had nonfatal VT recurrences. Sudden death occurred in 22 (14%) and 9 (17%) patients in the VT and VF groups, respectively. Incidence of sudden death had 2 peaks at approximately 3 and 12 months. Nonfatal VT recurrences were more frequent (most often occurring in first 6 months) in the VT than in the VF group. Sudden death occurred during the following 3 years in only 10% of patients who survived 1 year. There was a much higher incidence of sudden death in patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) less than or equal to 40% than in those with LVEF greater than 40% (28 of 65 vs 3 of 141; p less than 0.0001), but no relation between LVEF and nonfatal VT recurrences.

Aged↗