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PubMed1995

Presence of human papillomavirus predicts recurrence of inverted papilloma.

Recent evidence suggests that human papillomavirus may play a role in the pathogenesis of inverted papilloma, a benign but locally aggressive neoplasm with a high recurrence rate and an association with squamous cell carcinoma. Histologic features of inverted papilloma have not been useful in discriminating lesions at high risk for recurrence. We studied archival pathology specimens from 32 patients with inverted papilloma treated at the University of Michigan between 1980 and 1994 with polymerase chain reaction techniques and human papillomavirus E6 and L1 consensus primers. Twenty (63%) specimens tested positive for human papillomavirus. The clinical status of the remaining 25 patients was reviewed after seven patients with recent diagnosis or who were lost to follow-up were excluded. A significant association was identified between the presence of human papillomavirus DNA in inverted papilloma and recurrence after surgical excision. Thirteen of 15 patients whose tumors tested positive for HPV recurred, whereas none of the 10 patients whose tumors were human papillomavirus negative recurred (p < 0.00002). This strongly suggests that the presence of human papillomavirus predicts recurrence of inverted papilloma.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

The use of risk indices: do they predict recurrence?

A risk index which would reliably predict the likelihood of stone recurrence in the patient with renal calculi would help the clinician to select appropriate preventative therapy. However, none of the indices developed to date combines easy applicability in usual clinical settings with sufficient predictive power to be useful to the clinician in making treatment decisions.

Humans↗

PubMed1994

S-phase fraction after gating on epithelial cells predicts recurrence in node-negative breast cancer.

We have compared the prediction of distant recurrence for S-phase fraction (SPF) and DNA-ploidy, as estimated by flow cytometry, on an epithelial cell population and an unselected cell population from 268 node-negative breast-cancer patients diagnosed between 1985 and 1988. The tumor tissue was mechanically disintegrated and divided for flow cytometric analysis using both gated cells containing cytokeratin 8 and 18 and ungated cells treated with a detergent-trypsin solution. The relationship to distant recurrence was investigated for flow cytometric data, tumor size and estrogen and progesterone receptor content in univariate and multivariate Cox's regression analysis. The regression analyses were performed on 209 cases with S-phase fractions estimated by both methods. In 11 cases, DNA-ploidy classification differed, reflecting increased sensitivity to minor aneuploid peaks but a decreased ability to separate peaks in the near-diploid region for the gated populations. When SPF were used in univariate analysis as a continuous parameter or the upper tertile was used as cut-off value, SPF from the cytokeratin-gated cell population were most closely associated with recurrence and contributed additional prognostic information to SPF from the unselected cell population in the multivariate analysis. Out of the following variables:tumor size, ER and PR status, SPF and DNA ploidy, only SPF from immunoselected cells contributed prognostic information in multivariate analysis. These results indicate that SPF from immunoselected cell populations improves the prediction of recurrence in node-negative breast cancer.

Adult↗

PubMed2004

Mucin expression in pleomorphic adenoma of salivary gland: a potential role for MUC1 as a marker to predict recurrence.

BACKGROUND: Pleomorphic adenoma of the salivary gland (PA) is essentially a benign neoplasm. However, patients with recurrent PA are difficult to manage. There are rare reports on useful immunohistochemical markers to detect a high risk of recurrence when the primary lesions are resected. AIMS: To find a new marker to predict the recurrence of PA. METHODS: Primary lesions of PA were collected from nine patients showing subsequent recurrence and from 40 patients without recurrence during at least 10 years of follow up of the disease. Paraffin wax embedded tumour samples of the two groups were examined for the expression profiles of MUC1 (differentially glycosylated forms), MUC2, MUC4, MUC5AC, and MUC6 using immunohistochemistry. Several clinicopathological factors were also examined. RESULTS: In univariate analysis of the factors examined, MUC1/DF3 high expression (more than 30% of the neoplastic cells stained) in the primary lesions was seen more frequently in patients with recurrence (four of nine) than in those without recurrence (three of 40; p = 0.011). Larger tumour size (more than 3.0 cm) of the primary PA was also a significant (p = 0.035) risk factor for the recurrence of PA. In multivariate analysis, only high expression of MUC1/DF3 was found to be a significant independent risk factor for the recurrence of PA (p = 0.021). CONCLUSIONS: Expression of MUC1/DF3 in PA is a useful marker to predict its recurrence. Those patients with PA showing positive MUC1/DF3 expression should be followed up carefully.

Adenoma, Pleomorphic↗

PubMed2006

Predicting recurrence and metastasis of primary esophageal cancer with or without lymph node metastasis.

We studied 42 patients, consisting of 11 stage I/II patients who were node-negative (LN-) and 31 stage II/III patients who were node-positive (LN+). In the LN- patients, detection of occult neoplastic cells (ONCs) in lymph nodes had a sensitivity of 0.0% (0/5), a false-positive (FP) rate of 33.3% (2/6), a specificity of 66.7% (4/6), a false-negative (FN) rate of 100% (5/5), a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.0% (0/2), and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 44.4% (4/9). In the LN+ patients, the sensitivity of ONCs was 25.0% (5/20), FP rate was 36.4% (4/11), specificity was 63.6% (7/11), FN rate was 75.0% (15/20), PPV was 55.6% (5/9), and NPV was 31.8% (7/22). In LN- patients, positivity for at least 2 of the 3 high-risk criteria had a sensitivity of 20.0% (1/5), FP rate of 16.7% (1/6), specificity of 83.3% (5/6), FN rate of 80.0% (4/5), PPV of 50.0% (1/2), and NPV of 55.6% (5/9). In LN+ patients, these criteria had a sensitivity of 75.0% (15/20), FP rate of 9.1% (1/11), specificity of 90.9% (10/11), FN rate of 25.0% (5/20), PPV of 93.8% (15/16), and NPV of 66.7% (10/15). These results suggest that the high-risk criteria may be useful for predicting recurrence or metastasis in stage II/III lymph node-positive patients with esophageal cancer.

Esophageal Neoplasms↗

PubMed2004

Excessive increase in QT interval and dispersion of repolarization predict recurrent ventricular tachyarrhythmia after amiodarone.

Although chronic amiodarone has been proven to be effective to suppress ventricular tachycardia (VT) and ventricular fibrillation (VF), how we predict the recurrence of VT/VF after chronic amiodarone remains unknown. This study evaluated the predictive value of the QT interval, spatial, and transmural dispersions of repolarization (SDR and TDR) for further arrhythmic events after chronic amiodarone. Eighty-seven leads body surface ECGs were recorded before (pre) and one month after (post) chronic oral amiodarone in 50 patients with sustained monomorphic VT associated with organic heart disease. The Q-Tend (QTe), the Q-Tpeak (QTp), and the interval between Tpeak and Tend (Tp-e) as an index of TDR were measured automatically from 87-lead ECG, corrected Bazett's method (QTce, QTcp, Tcp-e), and averaged among all 87 leads. As an index of SDR, the maximum (max) minus minimum (min) QTce (max-min QTce) and standard deviation of QTce (SD-QTce) was obtained among 87 leads. All patients were prospectively followed (15 +/- 10 months) after starting amiodarone, and 20 patients had arrhythmic events. The univariate analysis revealed that post max QTce, post SD-QTce, post max-min QTce, and post mean Tcp-e from 87-lead but not from 12-lead ECG were the significant predictors for further arrhythmic events. ROC analysis indicated the post max-min QTce > or = 106 ms as the best predictor of events (hazard ratio = 10.4, 95%, CI 2.7 to 40.5, P = 0.0008). Excessive QT prolongation associated with increased spatial and transmural dispersions of repolarization predict the recurrence of VT/VF after amiodarone treatment.

Amiodarone↗

PubMed2005

Circulating secretory phospholipase A2 activity predicts recurrent events in patients with severe acute coronary syndromes.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to determine the prognostic value of circulating secretory phospholipase A2 (sPLA2) activity in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). BACKGROUND: The plasma level of type IIA sPLA2 is a risk factor for coronary artery disease (CAD) and is associated with adverse outcomes in patients with stable CAD. The prognostic impact of sPLA2 in patients with ACS is unknown. METHODS: Secretory phospholipase A2 antigen levels and activity were measured in plasma samples of 446 patients with ACS, obtained at the time of enrollment. RESULTS: Baseline sPLA2 activity was associated with the risk of death and myocardial infarction (MI). The unadjusted rate of death and MI increased in a stepwise fashion with increasing tertiles of sPLA2 activity (p < 0.0001). The association remained significant in the subgroup of patients who had MI with ST-segment elevation (p = 0.014) and the subgroup of patients who had unstable angina or non-ST-segment elevation MI (p < 0.002). After adjustment for clinical and biological variables, the hazard ratios for the combined end point of death or MI in the third tertile of sPLA2 compared with the first and second tertiles was 3.08 (95% confidence interval, 1.37 to 6.91, p = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: A single measurement of plasma sPLA2 activity at the time of enrollment provides strong independent information to predict recurrent events in patients with ACS.

Acute Disease↗

PubMed1987

Failure of haemodynamic measurements to predict recurrent gastrointestinal bleeding in cirrhotic patients receiving propranolol.

In an attempt to identify the haemodynamic factors predicting the recurrence of gastrointestinal bleeding in cirrhotic patients receiving propranolol, haemodynamic measurements were prospectively collected. Systemic and splanchnic haemodynamics were assessed before propranolol administration. Among 77 patients receiving propranolol, 24 re-bled and 53 did not re-bleed in a follow-up period of 30-730 days (median 540). There was no difference between patients with and without recurrent bleeding with regard to the initial value of heart rate, mean arterial pressure, cardiac index, and hepatic venous pressure gradient. A subgroup of 43 patients was further investigated for the haemodynamic response to one single dose of 40 mg of propranolol. No difference was observed in the propranolol-induced changes of heart rate, mean arterial pressure, cardiac index or hepatic venous pressure gradient, between patients with (n = 14) and those without (n = 29) recurrent bleeding while taking propranolol. In conclusion, systemic haemodynamics and hepatic venous pressure gradient have no predictive value in evaluating the risk of recurrent bleeding in cirrhotic patients receiving propranolol. Furthermore, therapeutic efficacy of propranolol cannot be predicted from the haemodynamic response to a single first dose of this substance.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Plasma concentrations of fibrinolytic factors in the subacute phase of myocardial infarction predict recurrent myocardial infarction or sudden cardiac death.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic value of plasma concentrations of tissue type plasminogen activator (t-PA), plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1), and C-reactive protein has been reported in patients with coronary artery disease. However, the association between cardiac events and these factors during the acute and subacute phases of myocardial infarction (MI) is unknown. The purpose of this study was to determine whether elevated plasma concentrations of t-PA, PAI-1, and C-reactive protein in patients with MI are associated with future recurrent MI or sudden cardiac death. METHODS: We studied 106 consecutive patients who survived a confirmed first MI between 1993 and 1998 in our hospital. The control group consisted of 50 patients who had no significant coronary artery stenosis. Blood samples were obtained at the time of admission for acute MI and on the 28th day after admission. Patients were followed for a mean of 50 months after these measurements. The primary end points were sudden cardiac death and fatal or nonfatal acute MI. RESULTS: Of the 92 patients who were available for follow-up, 10 had cardiac events. Both the plasma t-PA and PAI-1 concentrations were elevated on day 1 of acute MI compared to the control group and decreased by day 28, but remained higher than those in the controls. Plasma C-reactive protein concentration was also elevated on day 1 and decreased by day 28. Using a stepwise variable choice model of Cox proportional hazards analysis including these fibrinolytic factors and C-reactive protein, only the t-PA concentration in the subacute phase was a significant predictor of cardiac events (relative risk per S.D. 3.20, P<0.01). We further found that independent of other risk factors, an elevated t-PA concentration was predictive of cardiac events. CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals that a rise in endogenous t-PA concentration during the subacute phase of MI could predict recurrent MI or sudden cardiac death.

Aged↗

PubMed1993

Predicting recurrence in axillary-node negative breast cancer patients.

This study attempted to identify the risk groups in axillary node negative breast cancer patients using validated first-generation prognostic clinical and pathologic factors. An updated 10-year follow-up in 407 such patients treated by surgery alone at Roswell Park between 1976-1987 showed a 10-year recurrence rate (RR) of 19% (95% confidence interval +/- 5%). Predictors of outcome were, in order of strength: (1) Tumor size (p = 0.0006); RR at 10 years was 2% +/- 4 for tumors < or = 0.5 cm, 6% +/- 7 for tumors 0.6-1.0 cm, 16% +/- 9 for 1.1-2 cm, 29% +/- 12 for 2.1-5 cm, and 40% +/- 31 over 5 cm; (2) Histologic differentiation (p = 0.017); poorly differentiated/anaplastic (P/A) tumors had a greater RR (24% +/- 8) than well or moderately differentiated (W/M) tumors (13% +/- 8); (3) Age (p = 0.046); patients < 35 showed a RR of 28% +/- 20, pts 35-50, 22% +/- 10, and pts > 50,17% +/- 7 (p = 0.046). Cox Model analysis showed tumor size (4 groups) significant at < 0.0001, histologic differentiation (2 groups) significant at < 0.0005 after allowing for size, and age (+/- 50) significant at < 0.05 after allowing for size and differentiation. Combining these variables into subgroups enables selecting groups at various risks of recurrence. Groups with low risk are: (1) patients with tumor < or = 1 cm, W/M (0% RR), (2) patients with ductal carcinoma in situ with microinvasion (0% RR), and (3) patients with tumors < or = 1 cm, P/A (8% RR). In a suggestive finding in this last group, those over age 50 achieved a RR of 3% +/- 6, while those age 50 or less had RR 14% +/- 15. With the exception of this last group, all should be considered highly curable using loco-regional therapy alone, and might be spared the risks and costs of routine systemic adjuvant therapy. Groups with high risk are: (1) patients with tumors > 2 cm (RR 32% +/- 12), and (2) patients with tumors 1.1-2 cm, P/A (RR 21% +/- 14). These should receive adjuvant therapy. Groups with intermediate risk are patients with tumor 1.1-2 cm, W/M (RR 12% +/- 12). In a suggestive finding, those in this group over age 50 had a RR of 11% +/- 12, while those up to 50 had a RR of 17% +/- 30. These patients should be considered to be prime candidates for clinical trials.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Urinary cytokeratin 20 mRNA expression has the potential to predict recurrence in superficial transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder.

Higher levels of cytokeratin 20 (CK 20) mRNA are expressed in malignant urothelial tissue compared to normal tissue. We determined the CK 20 mRNA expression in urine from patients with transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) of the bladder and assessed the biological behavior of such tumors in a 5-year follow-up. Second voided urine was preoperatively collected from 56 patients with bladder carcinoma, from 20 patients with nonmalignant urological diseases and from 40 healthy volunteers. RNA extraction from exfoliated urothelial cells was followed by quantitative real-time RT-PCR with the Light Cycler. Patients in the superficial TCC group had a median expression of 8226AU (arbitrary units) with and 1523AU without tumor recurrence (P=0.023). No such correlation was detected in the group with muscle-invasive tumors. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a significant difference between recurrent and nonrecurrent disease (P=0.019) in superficial but not in muscle-invasive TCC (P=0.84). CK 20 mRNA expression in urine has the potential to identify patients at risk for recurrence of noninvasive papillary urothelial tumors. It helps to categorize patients prior to TUR-B, so that the cystoscopy interval during follow-up may be extended in those with low-risk superficial TCC.

Carcinoma, Transitional Cell↗

PubMed1999

Molecular detection of neoplastic cells in lymph nodes of metastatic colorectal cancer patients predicts recurrence.

Disseminated disease, especially to the liver, constitutes the major risk of recurrence for colorectal cancer patients. However, successful resection can still be achieved in 25-35% of colorectal cancer patients with isolated metastases. To evaluate the clinical value of occult micrometastatic disease detection in lymph nodes, we tested genetic (K-ras and p53 gene mutations) and epigenetic (p16 promoter hypermethylation) molecular markers in the perihepatic lymph nodes from colorectal cancer patients with isolated liver metastases. DNA was extracted from 21 paraffin-embedded liver metastases and 80 lymph nodes from 21 colorectal cancer patients. K-ras and p53 gene mutations were identified in DNA from liver metastases by PCR amplification followed by cycle sequencing. A sensitive oligonucleotide-mediated mismatch ligation assay was used to search for the presence of K-ras and p53 mutations to detect occult disease in 68 lymph nodes from tumors positive for these gene mutations. Promoter hypermethylation at the p16 tumor suppressor gene was examined in both liver lesions and lymph nodes by methylation-specific PCR. Sixteen of the 21 (76%) liver metastases harbored either gene point mutations or p16 promoter hypermethylation. Twelve of the 68 lymph nodes were positive for tumor cells by molecular evaluation and negative for tumor cells by histopathology and cytokeratin immunohistochemistry, whereas none were positive for tumor cells by histopathology or negative for tumor cells by molecular analysis (P = 0.0005, McNemar's test). Moreover, in three patients with lymph nodes that were histologically negative at all sites, molecular screening detected tumor DNA at one or more lymph nodes. Survival analysis showed a median survival of 1056 days for patients without evidence of lymph node involvement by molecular analysis and 165 days for patients with positive lymph nodes by this approach (P = 0.0005). These results indicate that lymph node metastasis screening in colorectal cancer patients by molecular-based techniques increases the sensitivity of tumor cell detection and can be a good predictor of recurrence in colorectal cancer patients with resectable liver metastases.

Colorectal Neoplasms↗

PubMed2004

P wave dispersion and left atrial appendage function for predicting recurrence after conversion of atrial fibrillation and relation of p wave dispersion to appendage function.

BACKGROUND: We investigated P wave dispersion and left atrial appendage (LAA) function for predicting atrial fibrillation (AF) relapse, and the relationship between P wave dispersion and LAA function. METHODS: Sixty-four consecutive patients with AF lasting </=3 months were evaluated to predict the recurrence after successful cardioversion. P wave duration and dispersion were measured in a 12-lead electrocardiograph (ECG). The size and function of the left atrium (LA) and LAA were assessed by transthoracic and transesophageal echocardiography. RESULTS: After 6 months, 28 patients experienced recurrent AF and 36 remained in sinus rhythm. There was no difference between patients with and without recurrence in gender, age, underlying heart disease, AF patterns, left ventricular function, and maximum LAA area. AF duration >/=5 days, LA size >/=45 mm, maximum P wave duration >/=112 ms, P wave dispersion >/=47 ms, spontaneous echo contrast, minimum LAA area >/=166 mm(2), and LAA emptying velocity <36 cm/sec were univariate predictors of recurrence (each P < 0.05). By multivariate analysis, LA size (P = 0.02), P wave dispersion (P < 0.001), and LAA emptying flow (P = 0.01) identified patients with recurrent AF. Their positive predictive values were 91, 97, and 72%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The increased P wave dispersion in addition to the dilated LA and the depressed LAA emptying flow can identify patients at risk of recurrent AF after cardioversion.

Aged↗

PubMed2003

DNA cytometric features in biopsies of TaT1 urothelial cell cancer predict recurrence and stage progression more accurately than stage, grade, or treatment modality.

OBJECTIVES: To compare retrospectively the predictive value for recurrence and stage progression of DNA ploidy and S-phase fraction by flow cytometry and highly automated ultrafast image cytometry (ICM) in biopsies of TaT1 urothelial cell carcinomas (UCCs) of the urinary bladder with stage, grade, other pathologic features, and treatment. METHODS: Three experienced pathologists reviewed the stage and grade of 228 UCCs; 193 (85%) consensus cases were analyzed further. We had enough material for single-cell suspensions for both flow cytometry and ICM in 183 cases (94.8%). The 2001 European Society for Analytical Cellular Pathology standards for DNA ICM were followed. The predictive value of DNA features, classic prognosticators (stage, grade, carcinoma in situ, multicentricity), and treatment modality for recurrence and stage progression were analyzed with univariate (Kaplan-Meier) survival and multivariate (Cox model) regression analysis. Ta and T1 cases were analyzed separately. RESULTS: Of the 228 cases, 88 (51.5%) recurred and 13 (7.6%) progressed. On univariate analysis, most of the DNA features studied were statistically significant. Treatment modality and grade were only prognostic for progression (not for recurrence) and only in Ta cases. On multivariate analysis, DNA ICM features performed best; the strongest recurrence predictor for Ta UCC was a DNA index (DI) of 1.0 versus all others, and for T1 UCC, a DI of less than 1.3 versus 1.3 or greater. The best stage progression predictor for Ta UCCs was a DI of 1.0 plus an S-phase fraction of less than 10%, and for T1 UCCs, a DI of less than 1.3 versus 1.3 or greater. With multivariate analysis, sex, age, grade, carcinoma in situ, multicentricity, and treatment modality were excluded once the DNA ICM features were selected. CONCLUSIONS: DNA image cytometric features predict recurrence and stage progression in TaT1 UCC biopsies more accurately than classic prognostic factors, independent of treatment modality.

Aged↗

PubMed2002

Postoperative persistent thyrotrophin releasing hormone-induced growth hormone release predicts recurrence in patients with acromegaly.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the predictive value of postoperative thyrotrophin releasing hormone (TRH)-induced GH responsiveness in relation to (late) postoperative outcome in patients in remission after surgery for acromegaly. PATIENTS: and methods One hundred and twenty-nine patients underwent surgery for acromegaly in our institution between 1977 and 1996. TRH tests and oral glucose tolerance tests (GTT) were performed and serum IGF-I concentrations were measured pre- and postoperatively and during follow-up. Criteria for postoperative remission were a mean serum GH concentration < 5 mU/l and/or serum GH after an oral glucose tolerance test < 1 mU/l immunofluorometric assay (IFMA) or < 2.5 mU/l (radioimmunosassay), together with a normal serum IGF-I concentration. RESULTS: Preoperatively, the TRH-induced GH response was highly variable, with gradual overlap between 'nonresponders' and 'responders'. Arbitrarily defined as a doubling of serum GH concentration, 45.6% of patients were 'responders' to TRH. GH response after TRH injection was significantly correlated to the TRH-induced prolactin response but not to preoperative GH concentration or adenoma size. After surgery, remission was achieved in 83 of the 129 patients. Postoperative remission was significantly correlated to mean preoperative serum GH concentration and preoperative glucose-suppressed serum GH but not to tumour class. Seventy-one patients with early postoperative remission were followed without adjuvant treatment for a mean of 9.4 +/- 0.7 years (range 0-23 years). Forty-one of these patients were TRH responsive as defined by at least doubling of the serum GH concentration preoperatively. Of the 71 patients, 12 developed recurrence of disease, as defined by insufficient GH suppression during oral GTT, and elevated IGF-I and mean serum GH concentration. Irrespective of the preoperative response to TRH, the initial postoperative TRH test was predictive of developing disease recurrence with a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 100% when an absolute GH increase of 3.75 mU/l was chosen to define paradoxical responsiveness. A stimulated GH 1.6 times basal was predictive of recurrence with a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 73%, and 2.1 times basal was predictive with a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 80%. None of the 32 patients with postoperative normalization of the preoperatively present TRH-induced GH response, defined as a postoperative GH increase < 3.75 mU/l, developed recurrence of disease, while all nine patients with a GH increase above this level developed recurrence of acromegaly. CONCLUSION: To our knowledge this is the first report which addresses the value of early postoperative TRH-induced GH responsiveness in predicting late surgical outcome using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves to redefine a postoperative paradoxical response instead of arbitrarily chosen criteria. An absolute postoperative GH response of more than 3.75 mU/l was associated with recurrence in all nine patients, while all 32 patients with normalization of previously paradoxical response are still in remission. Our findings from this study demonstrate that the TRH test is a valuable tool in the early identification of patients at risk of developing postoperative recurrence of acromegaly.

Acromegaly↗

PubMed2004

Accuracy of criteria for predicting recurrence and metastasis in stage II and III gastric cancer patients with lymph node metastasis.

This study assessed the prediction of gastric cancer recurrence based on detection of occult neoplastic cells (ONCs) in lymph nodes, and by using criteria that were developed to identify patients with a high risk of recurrence/metastasis. The subjects were 60 patients of stage II or III gastric cancer with lymph node metastasis. Prediction of recurrence based on the detection of ONCs showed a sensitivity of 33.3% (2/6), specificity of 70.0% (7/10), and accuracy of 51.7% in stage II patients, while the sensitivity was 73.5% (25/34), specificity was 100.0% (10/10), and accuracy was 86.8% in stage III patients. Prediction of recurrence based on the presence of at least 2 high-risk criteria had a sensitivity of 33.3% (2/6), specificity of 100.0% (10/10), and accuracy of 66.7% in stage II patients, while the sensitivity was 82.4% (28/34), specificity was 80.0% (8/10), and accuracy was 81.2% in stage III patients. These results suggest that prediction of recurrence/metastasis soon after surgery using ONCs plus the high-risk criteria can increase the specificity in stage II cancer, and can achieve a sensitivity of 80% or more with a high specificity and accuracy in stage III cancer.

Humans↗

PubMed2003

Anal sphincter disruption at vaginal delivery: is recurrence predictable?

OBJECTIVE: We prospectively evaluated the risk of recurrence of anal sphincter disruption ("third degree tear") at next vaginal delivery and whether this complication was predictable by antepartum anal functional assessment. STUDY DESIGN: Among 20,111 consecutive vaginal deliveries, where midline episiotomy was not performed, 342 (1.7%) third degree tears occurred, significantly more often in primiparae (2.9%) than multiparae (0.8%; P<0.001), all of whom underwent postpartum anal manometry and endosonography. Similar testing was performed antepartum and postpartum in 56 of 342 women who delivered again during the study period. RESULTS: Eleven of 56 women were delivered by caesarean in next pregnancy. Third degree tears recurred in 2 (4.4%) of 45 women at next vaginal delivery. Both recurrent injuries occurred in asymptomatic women with normal antepartum manometry and following spontaneous deliveries and were satisfactorily repaired. CONCLUSION: Although anal sphincter injury was increased five-fold at next delivery, compared with all multiparae, 95% of women delivering vaginally after previous third degree tear did not sustain further overt sphincter damage. Recurrence was not predictable using pre-delivery anal physiology testing.

Anal Canal↗

PubMed2004

Maximum P-wave duration and P-wave dispersion predict recurrence of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation in patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome after successful radiofrequency catheter ablation.

BACKGROUND: Identification of patients at risk for PAF recurrence after AP ablation is important because of the necessity for additional therapies. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether Maximum P-wave duration (Pmax) and P-wave dispersion (Pd ) detected on surface ECG after successful accessory pathway (AP) ablation can predict the recurrence of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF). METHODS: Seventy-eight patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) syndrome who had at least one documented PAF episode and underwent catheter ablation were enrolled. Pmax, minimum P-wave duration (Pmin) and Pd were determined on a surface ECG recorded on a high resolution computer screen on day 2 after ablation of the AP. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in terms of basic clinical data and electrophysiological findings between patients with (Group-1, n = 19) and without (Group-2, n = 59) recurrence of PAF during follow-up of 21 +/- 10 months. Pmax and Pd were significantly higher in Group-1 than Group-2 (120 +/- 15 vs. 96 +/- 10 ms and 47 +/- 12 vs. 25 +/- 7 ms, respectively; p < 0.001 for both). Pmin didn't differ significantly. A Pmax value of > or = 103 ms separated Group-1 from Group-2 with a sensitivity of 84.2%, specificity of 72.9%, positive predictive value of 50%, and negative predictive value of 93.5%. A Pd value of > or = 32.5 ms separated Group-1 from Group-2 with a sensitivity of 89.5%, specificity of 84.7%, positive predictive value of 65.4%, and negative predictive value of 96.2%. Pmax (p < 0.010) and Pd (p < 0.001) were found to be significant univariate predictors of PAF, whereas only Pd remained significant in multivariate analysis (p = 0.037). CONCLUSION: Pd > or = 32.5 ms and Pmax > or = 103.0 ms predict the recurrence of PAF after ablation with acceptable positive and negative predictive values. Pd > or = 32.5 ms is an independent predictor of recurrence of PAF after catheter ablation in patients with WPW syndrome.

Adolescent↗