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Spline models of biological population dynamics: how to estimate mortality rates for stage structured populations with dimorphic life histories.

Nonparametric spline based models of stage structured population dynamics provide an effective way of decomposing observed population dynamics into birth and death rate processes. Currently available methodology only considers simple life histories in which all individuals pass through the same sequence of stages in the same way. This paper presents techniques for obtaining birth and death rates from structured population time series of organisms with complex life histories. For example, in many species males and females develop at the same rate in early stages, but differently in late stages. The models are motivated by the need to obtain birth and death rates for a pest subject to biocontrol by a parasitoid.

Aging↗

The effect of population structure on the adaptive radiation of microbial populations evolving in spatially structured environments.

Spatial structure is thought to be an important factor influencing the emergence and maintenance of genetic diversity. Previous studies have demonstrated that environmental heterogeneity, provided by spatial structure, leads to adaptive radiation of populations. In the present study, we investigate not only the impact of environmental heterogeneity on adaptive radiation, but also of population fragmentation and niche construction. Replicate populations founded by a single genotype of Escherichia coli were allowed to evolve for 900 generations by serial transfer in either a homogeneous environment, or a spatially structured environment that was either kept intact or destroyed with each daily transfer. Only populations evolving in the structured environment with intact population structure diversified: clones are significantly divergent in sugar catabolism, and show frequency-dependent fitness interactions indicative of stable coexistence. These findings demonstrate an important role for population fragmentation, a consequence of population structure in spatially structured environments, on the diversification of populations.

Adaptation, Physiological↗

Recovering the precolonial population structure of Khoe-San descendant populations.

San populations from Botswana and Namibia retain exceptional linguistic, cultural, and genetic diversity, but few Khoisan-speaking groups remain south of the Kalahari Desert. However, historically, far southern Africa was home to many San and Khoekhoe groups. Popular opinion often implies that such populations do not contribute to the ancestry of contemporary South Africans. Here, we characterize the genetic ancestry of self-identified South African Coloured groups and reconstruct precolonial and colonial population structures from 620 newly sampled individuals. These groups retain the majority of Khoe-San genetic ancestry (>48%), suggesting the persistence of Khoe-San ancestry to the present day. By isolating the Khoe-San ancestry component, we show that it is intermediate between the ≠Khomani San and Nama and distinct from Kalahari Khoe-San populations. We also find that signatures of the Indian Ocean slave trade can be traced to Indonesian islands such as Sulawesi, Java, and Flores, while the South Asian ancestry is regionally nonspecific.

Humans↗

The effective population size of some age-structured populations.

It was shown in a previous paper that if generations are discrete, then the effective population size of a large population can be derived from the theory of multitype branching processes. It turns out to be proportional to the reciprocal of a term that appears in the denominator of expressions for survival probabilities when there is a supercritical positively regular branching process for which the dominant positive eigenvalue of the first moment matrix is slightly larger than 1. If there is an age-structured population with unchanging proportions among sexes and age groups, then the effective population size is shown to be also obtainable from the theory of multitype branching processes. The expression for this parameter has the same form as in the corresponding model for discrete generations, multiplied by an appropriate measure of the average length of a generation. Results are obtained for dioecious random mating populations, populations reproducing partly by selfing, and populations reproducing partly by full-sib mating.

Age Factors↗

Population structure.

This paper reviews recent new trends in population structure in the world and its major regions in order to access the determinants of those trends and explore issues regarding the recent and projected changes in the age structure of population and the relationships of those changes to social and economic development. In particular, the paper compares the change in age structure projected by the Population Division of the UN Secretariat in its most recent 3 series--namely, those completed in 1984, 1986, and 1988. By and large, the most recent UN assessment projects that a larger proportion of the world population will be aged 60 and over in 2000 and 2025 than was previously estimated. Those changes in projections can be observed for the world and for the more developed countries as a whole, and for the regions of Africa, Latin America, Northern America, East Asia, Europe, and Oceania. While the recommendations of the International Conference on Population called attention to the importance of changes in population structure, this paper recommends urgent government action in planning social programs for the aged because of the greater eminence of population aging in many settings. The case of Japan is used to illustrate the growing importance of increases in life expectancy as a determinant of age structure changes (in relation to fertility decline), a point that is reinforced through a cruder decomposition of UN estimates and projections for several European countries.

Africa↗

Consequences of unequal population size, asymmetric gene flow and sex-biased dispersal on population structure in brook charr (Salvelinus fontinalis).

Unravelling relationships between dispersal and population structure requires considering the impacts of assumption violations of indirect gene flow models in a given system. We combined temporal, individual and coalescent-based analyses of microsatellite DNA variation to explore the general hypothesis that unequal effective population size (Ne), asymmetric gene flow (m) and nonrandom (sex-biased) individual dispersal had an important effect on spatiotemporal population structuring in lake-dwelling brook charr (Salvelinus fontinalis). This integrative examination shed light on the dichotomous structuring observed between an outlet and three tributary-spawning populations and their potential for adaptive divergence. It revealed further that finer tributary population structuring incongruent with drainage structure has been shaped by asymmetric m from one population with a large Ne towards two populations of smaller Ne. Gene flow among the tributaries was also mediated mainly by male-biased dispersal. However, longer distance dispersal from tributaries to the outflow was female-biased. Spatially dependent sex-biased dispersal may have contributed therefore to gene flow at different levels of population structuring. Our results demonstrate how dispersal and population structure may interrelate to produce spatial variation in intraspecific diversity, and are therefore relevant for conservation programmes seeking to define conservation units or predict recolonization rates of extirpated populations.

Animals↗

Analysis of molecular diversity, population structure and linkage disequilibrium in a worldwide survey of cultivated barley germplasm (Hordeum vulgare L.).

BACKGROUND: The goal of our study was a systematic survey of the molecular diversity in barley genetic resources. To this end 953 cultivated barley accessions originating from all inhabited continents except Australia were genotyped with 48 SSR markers. Molecular diversity was evaluated with routine statistics (allelic richness, gene diversity, allele frequency, heterozygosity and unique alleles), Principal Coordinate Analysis (PCoA), and analysis of genome-wide linkage disequilibrium. RESULTS: A genotyping database for 953 cultivated barley accessions profiled with 48 SSR markers was established. The PCoA revealed structuring of the barley population with regard to (i) geographical regions and (ii) agronomic traits. Geographic origin contributed most to the observed molecular diversity. Genome-wide linkage disequilibrium (LD) was estimated as squared correlation of allele frequencies (r2). The values of LD for barley were comparable to other plant species (conifers, poplar, maize). The pattern of intrachromosomal LD with distances between the genomic loci ranging from 1 to 150 cM revealed that in barley LD extended up to distances as long as 50 cM with r2 > 0.05, or up to 10 cM with r2 > 0.2. Few loci mapping to different chromosomes showed significant LD with r2 > 0.05. The number of loci in significant LD as well as the pattern of LD were clearly dependent on the population structure. The LD in the homogenous group of 207 European 2-rowed spring barleys compared to the highly structured worldwide barley population was increased in the number of loci pairs with r2 > 0.05 and had higher values of r2, although the percentage of intrachromosomal loci pairs in significant LD based on P < 0.001 was 100% in the whole set of varieties, but only 45% in the subgroup of European 2-rowed spring barleys. The value of LD also varied depending on the polymorphism of the loci selected for genotyping. The 17 most polymorphic loci (PIC > 0.80) provided higher LD values as compared to 19 low polymorphic loci (PIC < 0.73) in both structured (all accessions) and non-structured (European 2-rowed spring varieties) barley populations. CONCLUSION: A global population of cultivated barley accessions was highly structured. Clustering highlighted the accessions with the same geographic origin, as well as accessions possessing similar agronomic characters. LD in barley extended up to 50 cM, and was strongly dependent on the population structure. The data on LD were summarized as a genome-wide LD map for barley.

Chromosome Mapping↗

Population structure of the Classic period Maya.

This study examines the population structure of Classic period (A.D. 250-900) Maya populations through analysis of odontometric variation of 827 skeletons from 12 archaeological sites in Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, and Honduras. The hypothesis that isolation by distance characterized Classic period Maya population structure is tested using Relethford and Blangero's (Hum Biol 62 (1990) 5-25) approach to R matrix analysis for quantitative traits. These results provide important biological data for understanding ancient Maya population history, particularly the effects of the competing Tikal and Calakmul hegemonies on patterns of lowland Maya site interaction. An overall F(ST) of 0.018 is found for the Maya area, indicating little among-group variation for the Classic Maya sites tested. Principal coordinates plots derived from the R matrix analysis show little regional patterning in the data, though the geographic outliers of Kaminaljuyu and a pooled Pacific Coast sample did not cluster with the lowland Maya sites. Mantel tests comparing the biological distance matrix to a geographic distance matrix found no association between genetic and geographic distance. In the Relethford-Blangero analysis, most sites possess negative or near-zero residuals, indicating minimal extraregional gene flow. The exceptions were Barton Ramie, Kaminaljuyu, and Seibal. A scaled R matrix analysis clarifies that genetic drift is a consideration for understanding Classic Maya population structure. All results indicate that isolation by distance does not describe Classic period Maya population structure.

Central America↗

Global relationships amongst black-browed and grey-headed albatrosses: analysis of population structure using mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites.

The population structure of black-browed (Thalassarche melanophris and T. impavida) and grey-headed (T. chrysostoma) albatrosses was examined using both mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and microsatellite analyses. mtDNA sequences from 73 black-browed and 50 grey-headed albatrosses were obtained from five island groups in the Southern Ocean. High levels of sequence divergence were found in both taxa (0.55-7.20% in black-browed albatrosses and 2.10-3.90% in grey-headed albatrosses). Black-browed albatrosses form three distinct groups: Falklands, Diego Ramirez/South Georgia/Kerguelen, and Campbell Island (T. impavida). T. melanophris from Campbell Island contain birds from each of the three groups, indicating high levels of mixture and hybridization. In contrast, grey-headed albatrosses form one globally panmictic population. Microsatellite analyses on a larger number of samples using seven highly variable markers found similar population structure to the mtDNA analyses in both black-browed and grey-headed albatrosses. Differences in population structure between these two very similar and closely related species could be the result of differences in foraging and dispersal patterns. Breeding black-browed albatrosses forage mainly over continental shelves and migrate to similar areas when not breeding. Grey-headed albatrosses forage mainly at frontal systems, travelling widely across oceanic habitats outside the breeding season. Genetic analyses support the current classification of T. impavida as being distinct from T. melanophris, but would also suggest splitting T. melanophris into two groups: Falkland Islands, and Diego Ramirez/South Georgia/Kerguelen.

Animals↗

An Icelandic example of the impact of population structure on association studies.

The impact of population structure on association studies undertaken to identify genetic variants underlying common human diseases is an issue of growing interest. Spurious associations of alleles with disease phenotypes may be obtained or true associations overlooked when allele frequencies differ notably among subpopulations that are not represented equally among cases and controls. Population structure influences even carefully designed studies and can affect the validity of association results. Most study designs address this problem by sampling cases and controls from groups that share the same nationality or self-reported ethnic background, with the implicit assumption that no substructure exists within such groups. We examined population structure in the Icelandic gene pool using extensive genealogical and genetic data. Our results indicate that sampling strategies need to take account of substructure even in a relatively homogenous genetic isolate. This will probably be even more important in larger populations.

Genetic Diseases, Inborn↗

[Population structure and dynamics: the population matrix].

"This article shows an alternative way of presenting population data. The population matrix, constructed as an important part in the process of compiling socio-demographic accounts, demonstrates the close connection between stock and flow data, bringing both types of data consistently together." Official data for the Netherlands are used to illustrate the concept. (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Data Collection↗

Demographic analysis from summaries of an age-structured population.

Demographic analyses of age-structured populations typically rely on life history data for individuals, or when individual animals are not identified, on information about the numbers of individuals in each age class through time. While it is usually difficult to determine the age class of a randomly encountered individual, it is often the case that the individual can be readily and reliably assigned to one of a set of age classes. For example, it is often possible to distinguish first-year from older birds. In such cases, the population age structure can be regarded as a latent variable governed by a process prior, and the data as summaries of this latent structure. In this article, we consider the problem of uncovering the latent structure and estimating process parameters from summaries of age class information. We present a demographic analysis for the critically endangered migratory population of whooping cranes (Grus americana), based only on counts of first-year birds and of older birds. We estimate age and year-specific survival rates. We address the controversial issue of whether management action on the breeding grounds has influenced recruitment, relating recruitment rates to the number of seventh-year and older birds, and examining the pattern of variation through time in this rate.

Aging↗

Genealogy of neutral genes and spreading of selected mutations in a geographically structured population.

In a geographically structured population, the interplay among gene migration, genetic drift and natural selection raises intriguing evolutionary problems, but the rigorous mathematical treatment is often very difficult. Therefore several approximate formulas were developed concerning the coalescence process of neutral genes and the fixation process of selected mutations in an island model, and their accuracy was examined by computer simulation. When migration is limited, the coalescence (or divergence) time for sampled neutral genes can be described by the convolution of exponential functions, as in a panmictic population, but it is determined mainly by migration rate and the number of demes from which the sample is taken. This time can be much longer than that in a panmictic population with the same number of breeding individuals. For a selected mutation, the spreading over the entire population was formulated as a birth and death process, in which the fixation probability within a deme plays a key role. With limited amounts of migration, even advantageous mutations take a large number of generations to spread. Furthermore, it is likely that these mutations which are temporarily fixed in some demes may be swamped out again by non-mutant immigrants from other demes unless selection is strong enough. These results are potentially useful for testing quantitatively various hypotheses that have been proposed for the origin of modern human populations.

Animals↗

Population structure and eigenanalysis.

Current methods for inferring population structure from genetic data do not provide formal significance tests for population differentiation. We discuss an approach to studying population structure (principal components analysis) that was first applied to genetic data by Cavalli-Sforza and colleagues. We place the method on a solid statistical footing, using results from modern statistics to develop formal significance tests. We also uncover a general "phase change" phenomenon about the ability to detect structure in genetic data, which emerges from the statistical theory we use, and has an important implication for the ability to discover structure in genetic data: for a fixed but large dataset size, divergence between two populations (as measured, for example, by a statistic like FST) below a threshold is essentially undetectable, but a little above threshold, detection will be easy. This means that we can predict the dataset size needed to detect structure.

Computer Simulation↗

Population structure of morphological traits in Clarkia dudleyana. I. Comparison of FST between allozymes and morphological traits.

Studies of genetic variation at allozyme loci, assumed to be selectively neutral, have provided valuable insights into the genetic structure of numerous populations. The degree to which population structure of allozyme variation reflects that of quantitative traits, however, is not well resolved. Here, we compare estimates of population differentiation (FST) of 11 populations for allozymes with those for nine discrete and nine continuous morphological traits. Overall, the allozymes have the lowest FST estimates, indicating relatively little population differentiation. Excepting two traits, petal width and long internode length, the continuous morphological traits have estimates similar to those from allozymes. The discrete morphological traits tend to have the highest estimates. On a single trait basis, estimates of FST for four discrete and two continuous traits are higher than those for allozymes. A more detailed (narrow-sense quantitative) genetic study of two populations suggests that these estimates of FST may underestimate the true value because of dominance. Clustering analyses show that the pattern of differentiation for the discrete morphological traits strongly reflects the geographical distribution of the populations, whereas the patterns for the continuous traits and allozymes do not. These results suggest that selection has been occurring on the discrete morphological traits, selecting toward a common optimum within each geographic group, and optima differing among geographic groups.

Cluster Analysis↗

Genetic population structure of the vulnerable bog fritillary butterfly.

Populations of the bog fritillary butterfly Proclossiana eunomia (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae) occur in patchy habitat in central and western Europe. P. eunomia is a vulnerable species in the Belgian Ardennes and the number of occupied sites has significantly decreased in this region since the 1960s. RAPD (random amplified polymorphic DNA) markers were used to study the consequences of habitat loss and fragmentation on the genetic population structure of this species. Gene diversity was lower in populations with smaller population sizes. Genetic subdivision was high (Fst=0.0887) considering the small spatial scale of this study (150 km2). The most geographically isolated population was also the most genetically differentiated one. The genetic population structure and genetic differentiation detected in this study were explained by (1) differences in altitude of the sampled locations and, (2) lower dispersal propensity and dispersal rate in fragmented landscapes versus continuous landscapes. Results from the RAPD analyses were compared with a previous allozyme based study on the same populations. The results of this study suggest that increased fragmentation has lead to a greater genetic differentiation between remaining P. eunomia populations.

Animals↗

Quantitative traits in relation to population structure: why and how are they used and what do they imply?

I describe the basic ingredients of a population structure analysis and the rationale for using polygenic quantitative traits in such analyses. The complexity of inheritance and the population dynamics of quantitative traits, however, imply that inferences regarding population structure based on such traits must be evaluated with appropriate cautions. Although many studies of quantitative traits in relation to population structure analysis underscore the importance of gene flow between subpopulations, I show that the role of selection in the evolution of a quantitative trait and its relationship to the inferred population structure cannot be overlooked. Finally, I review some recent advances in human quantitative genetic methodologies that can be used profitably in population structure analysis.

Anthropology, Physical↗