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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
PubMed2000

Growth and population dynamic model of the reef coral Fungia granulosa Klunzinger, 1879 at Eilat, northern Red Sea.

The lack of population dynamic information for most species of stony corals is due in part to their complicated life histories that may include fission, fusion and partial mortality of colonies, leading to an uncoupling of coral age and size. However, some reef-building corals may produce compact upright or free-living individuals in which the above processes rarely occur, or are clearly detectable. In some of these corals, individual age may be determined from size, and standard growth and population dynamic models may be applied to gain an accurate picture of their life history. We measured long-term growth rates (up to 2.5 years) of individuals of the free-living mushroom coral Fungia granulosa Klunzinger, 1879 at Eilat, northern Red Sea, and determined the size structure of a population on the shallow reef slope. We then applied growth and population models to the data to obtain estimates of coral age, mortality rate, and life expectancy in members of this species. In the field, few F. granulosa polyps suffered partial mortality of >10% of their tissues. Thus, the majority of polyps grew isometrically and determinately, virtually ceasing growth by about 30-40 years of age. Coral ages as revealed by skeletal growth rings were similar to those estimated from a growth curve based on field data. The frequency of individuals in each age class on the reef slope decreased exponentially with coral age, indicating high mortality rates when corals were young. The maximum coral age observed in the field population (31 years) was similar to that estimated by application of a population dynamic model (30 years). Calculated rates of growth, mortality and life expectancy for F. granulosa were within the range of those known for other stony corals. Our results reveal a young, dynamic population of this species on Eilat reefs, with high turnover rates and short lifespans. Such information is important for understanding recovery of coral reefs from disturbances, and for application to the management of commercially exploited coral populations.

Journal Article↗
PubMed1982

On the ecology of the harbour seal Phoca vitulina in the Wadden Sea: population dynamics, residue levels, and management .

The harbour seal population in the Dutch Wadden Sea decreased significantly during the last decades. Calculations based on bounty data revealed that the population decreased from about 2700 in 1950 to about 900 in 1959. Annual aerial surveys--which were carried out since that time--showed a slight increase due to the stop of hunting. However, after 1964 a new decline occurred and since 1974 the population stays at a level of about 450 specimens. During 1974 to 1978 the population dynamics of the population have been studied Frequent aerial surveys provided data on the size of the population. These data have been used in a simulation model and the birth rate and the initial juvenile mortality were calculated. During boat trips an indication of the age composition was obtained by measuring track widths. By comparing these results with similar results from a stable population in Schleswig Holstein it appeared: (1) that juvenile mortality in the first weeks in the Dutch population is higher than that in Schleswig Holstein but the overall mortality of pups in both areas in their first three months of life is of the same order; (2) that pup production in the Dutch population is low compared to the population in Schleswig Holstein; (3) that apparently immigration from elsewhere occurs. To investigate the contribution of environmental pollution to the decline of the Dutch seal population tissues of dead, stranded animals originating from Schleswig Holstein, Denmark and the Netherlands were collected and analyzed for PCBs, o,p'-DDT, p,p'-(DDT, DDE, TDE), dieldrin, aldrin, endrin, endosulfan, alpha, beta, gamma,-HCH, HCB, QCB (pentachlorobenzene), HEPO, total mercury, methyl-mercury, selenium and bromium. Considering epidemiological and experimental data on the effects of PCBs on mammalian reproduction, strong support is obtained for the hypothesis that PCBs are responsible for the decreased reproduction in seals from the Dutch Wadden Sea. if PBCs are responsible for the decrease of the Dutch seal population, measure of all North Sea countries are urgently required because these PCBs may not only be a hazard to seals but also to other animals and even man. Production and use of PCBs should be limited and used PCBs should be collected and destroyed. However, even if an immediate ban on PCB's would be effected, the effects of PCBs because of their persistent character are likely to last many years. For that reason it may be assumed that the seal population in the western Wadden Sea still faces a difficult period in the years to come. In order to lead this population through this difficult period, all possible measures enhancing its continued existence should be taken. Since the seals in the Wadden Sea form one population maximum result may be expected from measures applying to all seals in the Wadden Sea. Thus international cooperation is necessary. The following measures are proposed: Continued interdiction of hunting in order to obtain a maximum number of animals taking part in reproduction. Establishment of seal reserves and, additionally supporting seal nursery stations in order to guarantee a maximum reproductive output. However, it has to be stressed that these measures are not effective if at the same time the main cause of the decrease is not found and brought under control.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Scale-dependent mechanisms in the population dynamics of an insect herbivore.

A multiscale approach has lead to significant advances in the understanding of species population dynamics. The scale-dependent nature of population processes has been particularly clearly illustrated for insect herbivores. However, one of the most well-studied insect herbivores, the galling sawfly Euura lasiolepis, has to date been examined almost exclusively at fine spatial scales. The preference-performance, plant vigour and larval survival hypotheses are well supported by this species. Here, we test these hypotheses at a spatial scale larger than that previously considered, i.e. across a landscape in northern Arizona represented by an altitudinal gradient encompassing a series of drainages. We also develop a qualitative model for understanding the population dynamics of E. lasiolepis based on patterns of survival and mortality found in this study and previous ones. Gall density was highly variable across the altitudinal gradient, not explained by host plant variables, and thus a poor surrogate for population abundance. These findings for the first time fail to support the plant vigour and preference hierarchy hypotheses for E. lasiolepis. Dispersal limitation most likely explains the lack of support for these hypotheses at this scale. By contrast, sawfly survival, gall abortion, parasitism and larval mortality were well explained by host plant quality variables and altitude. The larval survival hypothesis was well supported and is thus comparatively scale-invariant. A qualitative model developed here highlighted the importance of both willow water status and disturbance in determining host plant quality, as well as an apparent trade off between shoot length and plant moisture status in determining vital rates across the altitudinal gradient. This study thus demonstrated for the first time the scale-dependent nature of mechanisms underlying the population dynamics E. lasiolepis, and identified the interaction between parasitism and altitude as a novel mechanism underlying spatial patterns in the survival and mortality patterns of this species.

Altitude↗
PubMed1985

Simulation modelling of the population dynamics of cereal aphids.

A simulation model explaining the population dynamics of the grain aphid (Sitobion avenae), a serious pest of wheat in Western Europe, is described. The model includes the effects of crop development and some natural enemies on the biology of the aphid. It is concluded that although much of the population dynamics of the aphid, especially in relation to its host plant, is now well understood, many uncertainties still remain concerning natural enemies. As these organisms seem able to prevent cereal aphid outbreaks, in some years, these gaps are presently preventing the development of a reliable forecasting scheme.

Animals↗
PubMed1986

Evolutionary games and two species population dynamics.

Competition between species has long been modeled by population dynamics based on total numbers of each species. Recently, the evolution of strategy frequencies has been used successfully for competition models between individuals. In this paper, we illustrate that these two views of competition are compatible. It is shown that the rate of intra and interspecific competitions between individuals largely determines the population dynamics. Competition models over a single common resource and predator-prey models are developed from this individual competition approach. In particular, the equilibrium strategies in a co-evolving predator-prey system are shown to be more stable than the predicted strategy cycling of standard evolutionary game theory.

Animals↗
PubMed1987

Population dynamics of humans and other animals.

Human population dynamics, at least until the past century, have probably been governed by homeostasis and in this resembled those of other animals. Because human population homeostasis was probably substantially weaker than among large mammals, its operation has been less obvious. Nonetheless, the empirical evidence for advanced agriculturalists is compelling. Unlike animals, the human population has tended toward equilibria that have been tending upward at an accelerating rate. The acceleration might reflect long-run positive feedback between density and technological progress, as Boserup has suggested. Because homeostasis was weak, its role in shorter run historical explantation is limited; its force was gentle and easily overwhelmed by other particular influences. Malthusian oscillation, in the sense of distinctive medium-run dynamics arising from homeostasis, probably did not occur. And because homeostasis was weak, density dependence can in principle explain only a minute proportion of the annual variation in population growth rates. Yet homeostasis plays an essential role in demographic theory. Without it, we are incapable of explaining population size and change over time except by recounting a mindless chronology of events back to the beginning of humanity--whenever that was. Without it, we cannot explain the response of population growth to economic growth. Without it, we cannot explain recovery from catastrophe or the rapid natural increase in many frontier regions. Without it, we cannot properly analyze the influence of climatic variation and other partially density-independent factors. Our basic understanding of human history requires a grasp of what homeostasis can explain and what it cannot. A homeostatic approach to population dynamics also leads to questions about the roles of reproductive norms and institutions, not just whether they encourage high or low fertility, but whether they make natural increase responsive to resource abundance. And if they do, whether they strike the balance of population and the means of subsistence at a relatively prosperous or impoverished level. Such considerations may contribute to an understanding of broad preindustrial differences among the regions of the world in densities, average levels of vital rates, and living standards--which was very much how Malthus viewed the matter. Ordinary homeostatic tendencies essentially vanish in the course of economic development, and they were probably all but gone from much of Europe by the end of the 19th century.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Animals↗
PubMed2002

Population dynamics of active and total ciliate populations in arable soil amended with wheat.

Soil protozoa are characterized by their ability to produce cysts, which allows them to survive unfavorable conditions (e.g., desiccation) for extended periods. Under favorable conditions, they may rapidly excyst and begin feeding, but even under optimal conditions, a large proportion of the population may be encysted. The factors governing the dynamics of active and encysted cells in the soil are not well understood. Our objective was to determine the dynamics of active and encysted populations of ciliates during the decomposition of freshly added organic material. We monitored, in soil microcosms, the active and total populations of ciliates, their potential prey (bacteria and small protozoa), their potential competitors (amoebae, flagellates, and nematodes), and their potential predators (nematodes). We sampled with short time intervals (2 to 6 days) and generated a data set, suitable for mathematical modeling. Following the addition of fresh organic material, bacterial numbers increased more than 1,400-fold. There was a temporary increase in the number of active ciliates, followed by a rapid decline, although the size of the bacterial prey populations remained high. During this initial burst of ciliate growth, the population of cystic ciliates increased 100-fold. We suggest that internal population regulation is the major factor governing ciliate encystment and that the rate of encystment depends on ciliate density. This model provides a quantitative explanation of ciliatostasis and can explain why protozoan growth in soil is less than that in aquatic systems. Internally governed encystment may be an essential adaptation to an unpredictable environment in which individual protozoa cannot predict when the soil will dry out and will survive desiccation only if they have encysted in time.

Animals↗
PubMed1996

Population dynamics of two species of Eimeria (Apicomplexa: Eimeriidae) in deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus): biotic and abiotic factors.

I investigated whether biotic factors (competitive exclusion between parasites and host immunity), abiotic factors (high temperature, low temperature, and rainfall), or a combination of the 2 affected the population dynamics of Eimeria arizonensis and Eimeria delicata in naturally infected deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus). There was no evidence of competitive exclusion between E. arizonensis and E. delicata, nor were E. arizonensis population dynamics affected by host immunity (young deer mice were not infected significantly more frequently than adults). However, high temperatures were negatively associated with the prevalence of observed infections (r = -0.725, P < 0.001), suggesting sporulation of oocysts might be affected. In contrast, juvenile deer mice were infected with E. delicata more frequently than adults (z = 2.05, P < 0.02), suggesting that host immunity plays a role in the population dynamics of E. delicata. Temperature and rainfall during oocyst sporulation were not significantly associated with the prevalence of observed E. delicata infections. Finally, there was no evidence that a combination of biotic and abiotic factors was important in the population dynamics of either eimerian. Thus, the population dynamics of E. arizonensis seem to be controlled by abiotic factors, whereas those of E. delicata seem to be affected by biotic factors.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2003

Nonlocal interaction effects on pattern formation in population dynamics.

We consider a model for population dynamics such as for the evolution of bacterial colonies which is of the Fisher type but where the competitive interaction among individuals is nonlocal, and show that spatial structures with interesting features emerge. These features depend on the nature of the competitive interaction as well as on its range, specifically on the presence or absence of tails in, and the central curvature of, the influence function of the interaction.

Bacteria↗
PubMed2005

Changes in maternal investment in eggs can affect population dynamics.

The way that mothers provision their offspring can have important consequences for their offspring's performance throughout life. Models suggest that maternally induced variation in life histories may have large population dynamical effects, even perhaps driving cycles such as those seen in forest Lepidoptera. The evidence for large maternal influences on population dynamics is unconvincing, principally because of the difficulty of conducting experiments at both the individual and population level. In the soil mite, Sancassania berlesei, we show that there is a trade-off between a female's fecundity and the per-egg provisioning of protein. The mother's position on this trade-off depends on her current food availability and her age. Populations initiated with 250 eggs of different mean sizes showed significant differences in the population dynamics, converging only after three generations. Differences in the growth, maturation and fecundity of the initial cohort caused differences in the competitive environment for the next generation, which, in turn, created differences in their growth and reproduction. Maternal effects in one generation can therefore lead to population dynamical consequences over many generations. Where animals live in environments that are temporally variable, we conjecture that maternal effects could result in long-term dynamical effects.

Animal Nutritional Physiological Phenomena↗
PubMed1983

Celozoic myxosporidians (Myxidium spp. and Chloromyxum spp.) of cyprinids from the river Esla (León, NW Spain). II. Population dynamics.

In the analysis of the population dynamics of various celozoic Myxosporidians found in Cyprinids of the river Esla (León, NW Spain) a bimodal seasonality was observed for Myxidium macrocapsulare Auerbach, 1910, Myxidium carinae Alvarez-Pellitero et al., 1983 and Chloromyxum complicatum Alvarez-Pellitero et al., 1983. We did not observe a clear influence of the age and sex of the host on the infections. An apparently positive association was observed for Myxidium carinae and Chloromyxum complicatum in Barbus barbus bocagei, and for Myxidium macrocapsulare and Chloromyxum complicatum in Leuciscus cephalus cabeda, which we consider due probably to ecological factors.

Animals↗
PubMed1998

Fast game theory coupled to slow population dynamics: the case of domestic cat populations.

We study a deterministic model of a population where individuals alternatively adopt hawk and dove tactics. It is assumed that the hawk and dove individuals compete for some resources at a fast time scale. This fast part of the model is coupled to a slow part that describes the growth of the population. It is shown that, in a constant game matrix, the population grows according to a logistic curve whose r and K parameters are related to the payoff of the tactics. Results show that the highest population density is obtained when all individuals are dove. We also study a density-dependent game matrix for which the gain is a function of the population density. In this case, we show that two stable equilibria can occur, a first one at low density with a high proportion of hawk individuals and a second one at large density with a low proportion of hawk individuals. Our model is applied to domestic cat populations for which the behavior of individuals in competition with one another can be modeled by two tactics: hawk and dove. Such tactics change with density of population. The results of the model agree well with observed data: high-density populations of domestic cats are mainly doves, whereas low-density populations are mainly hawks.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling.

Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, "robust design" capture-recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of gamma" = gamma' = 0.10 +/- 0.069 (values are estimated mean +/- SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 +/- 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was tau = 0.18 +/- 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size N(t) varied from 17 +/- 1.7 to 31 +/- 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as lambda = 1.03 +/- 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, B(t), varied from 0 +/- 3.0 to 14 +/- 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 +/- 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 +/- 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means.

Animal Identification Systems↗
PubMed1991

Computer simulation of Boophilus cattle tick (Acari: Ixodidae) population dynamics.

A comprehensive computer model was developed for simulation of the population dynamics of the cattle ticks, Boophilus microplus (Canestrini) and B. annulatus (Say). The model is deterministic and based on a dynamic life table with weekly time steps. The model simulates the effects of major environmental variables, such as ambient temperature, saturation deficit, precipitation, type of pasture, type of cattle, and cattle density on Boophilus cattle tick population dynamics. General validity of the model is established by comparing simulated and observed yearly densities of standard female ticks/host/day. B. microplus population comparisons were made for a series of years using weekly weather data from two locations in Queensland, Australia. The model also produced acceptable values for initial population growth rate, generation time, and 3-yr population density when historical weather at 7 locations in Australia and 23 locations in the Americas were used. This model provides a framework for the study of Babesia transmission by Boophilus ticks, and can be used to study the effects of control technologies and to develop more efficient and environmentally acceptable eradication strategies for Boophilus ticks.

Animals↗
PubMed1999

Finding the Missing Link between Landscape Structure and Population Dynamics: A Spatially Explicit Perspective.

We construct and explore a general modeling framework that allows for a systematic investigation of the impact of changes in landscape structure on population dynamics. The essential parts of the framework are a landscape generator with independent control over landscape composition and physiognomy, an individual-based spatially explicit population model that simulates population dynamics within heterogeneous landscapes, and scale-dependent landscape indices that depict the essential aspects of landscape that interact with dispersal and demographic processes. Landscape maps are represented by a grid of [Formula: see text] cells and consist of good-quality, poor-quality, or uninhabitable matrix habitat cells. The population model was shaped in accordance to the biology of European brown bears (Ursus arctos), and demographic parameters were adjusted to yield a source-sink configuration. Results obtained with the spatially explicit model do not confirm results of earlier nonspatial source-sink models where addition of sink habitat resulted in a decrease of total population size because of dilution of high-quality habitat. Our landscape indices, which describe scale-dependent correlation between and within habitat types, were able to explain variations in variables of population dynamics (mean number of females with sink home ranges, mean number of females with source home ranges, and mean dispersal distance) caused by different landscape structure. When landscape structure changed, changes in these variables generally followed the corresponding change of an appropriate landscape index in a linear way. Our general approach incorporates source-sink dynamics as well as metapopulation dynamics, and the population model can easily be modified for other species groups.

habitat connectivity↗
PubMed1989

Statistics and soap operas: population dynamics at Hopkins.

Since its inception in 1964, the Department of Population Dynamics has broken new ground in building interdisciplinary collaboration among the diverse fields of biological, social, and management sciences. The collaboration has produced uniquely well-prepared professionals, yielded some innovative research efforts, and advanced training and communication in the field of family planning. From Dr. Paul Harper's determination to build a center for sharing experiences in population planning, a world center for population dynamics has grown.

Baltimore↗
PubMed2005

Population dynamics of a diverse rodent assemblage in mixed grass-shrub habitat, southeastern Colorado, 1995-2000.

We followed seasonal and year-to-year population dynamics for a diverse rodent assemblage in a short-grass prairie ecosystem in southeastern Colorado (USA) for 6 yr. We captured 2,798 individual rodents (range, one to 812 individuals per species) belonging to 19 species. The two most common species, deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) and western harvest mice (Reithrodontomys megalotis), generally had population peaks in winter and nadirs in summer; several other murid species demonstrated autumn peaks and spring nadirs; heteromyids were infrequently captured in winter, and populations generally peaked in summer or autumn. Inter-annual trends indicated an interactive effect between temperature and precipitation. Conditions associated with low rodent populations or population declines were high precipitation during cold periods (autumn and winter) and low precipitation during warm periods (spring and summer). Severity of adverse effects varied by species. Heteromyids, for example, were apparently not negatively affected by the hot, dry spring and summer of 2000. Cross-correlations for the temporal series of relative population abundances between species pairs (which are affected by both seasonal and interannual population dynamics) revealed positive associations among most murids and among most heteromyids, but there were negative associations between murids and heteromyids. These results have important implications for those attempting to model population dynamics of rodent populations for purposes of predicting disease risk.

Animals↗