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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
PubMed1989

Population projections for AIDS using an actuarial model.

This paper gives details of a model for forecasting AIDS, developed for actuarial purposes, but used also for population projections. The model is only appropriate for homosexual transmission, but it is age-specific, and it allows variation in the transition intensities by age, duration in certain states and calendar year. The differential equations controlling transitions between states are defined, the method of numerical solution is outlined, and the parameters used in five different Bases of projection are given in detail. Numerical results for the population of England and Wales are shown.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1989

Impact of census error adjustments on state population projections: the case of Ohio.

National undercount adjustment factors from the 1970 and 1980 U.S. censuses are used to prepare population projections for Ohio, which are in turn compared with unadjusted projections. "The findings suggest that decisions concerning adjustment factors have varying effects on short-term, long-term, and strategic forecasting. These effects are particularly salient for selected age-groups and the impact on state government budget decisions typically associated with these age-groups. We recommend that the effects of alternative adjustment possibilities be examined by state demographic centers and budget offices."

Age Distribution↗
PubMed2001

Assumptions for the 2000-based national population projections.

This article summarises the long-term assumptions of fertility, mortality and net migration which will underlie the forthcoming 2000-based national population projections. Compared with the current (1998-based) projections, the new projections will assume lower levels of fertility, but higher levels of inward net migration. There will be relatively little change to mortality assumptions. Results of the new projections will be available on 15 November 2001.

Birth Rate↗
PubMed1998

Arthritis and the aging population: projections of arthritis prevalence in Canada 1991 to 2031.

OBJECTIVE: To develop Canadian projections for the prevalence and numbers of people with arthritis and arthritis disability, overall and in major age groups. METHODS: Age and sex specific data from the 1991 General Social Survey and the 1994 National Population Health Survey on the prevalence of arthritis and arthritis disability were applied to population projections for Canada for every 5 years between 1991 and 2031. RESULTS: Between 1991 and 2031 we project that the prevalence of arthritis diagnosed by a health professional as a longterm condition in Canada will increase from 10.7 to 15.7%, an increase of 46.7%, and the number of people with arthritis will increase from 2.9 to 6.5 million, an increase of 124%. Comparable changes in prevalence and numbers of people with self-reported arthritis are 17.1% (4.7 million) to 23.6% (9.7 million). Most of the increase will be in the population aged 45+, and not until after 2020 will the comparative increase in the 65+ age group be greater than that for the 45-64 age group. Disability attributed to arthritis in the population aged 15+ is projected to increase from a prevalence of 2.3% (595,000) in 1991 to 3.3% (1.13 million) in 2031. CONCLUSION: There are large projected increases in both the prevalence and numbers of people with arthritis and arthritis related disability that, at least in the next 20 years, will be split between the older half of the working population and those aged 65 and older.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2002

Variant population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries.

Interest has been growing steadily in understanding the impact of the inherent uncertainty in the national population projections. As a result, the Government Acturay's Department has recently produced the most extensive set of official variant projections ever published in the United Kingdom. These include 'standard' variants based on alternative high and low assumptions for future fertility, life expectancy and net migration and also a number of 'special case scenarios.' All of these variants have been produced at both UK and individual country level. This article describes the full range of variant projections available from the 2000-based national projections and summaries some of the key results for both the UK and the individual countries.

Adolescent↗