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Is stroke mortality on the decline in England?

This paper challenges the assumption that mortality from stroke will remain constant or decline over the next few decades. A decline in stroke mortality could be brought about by changes in factors acting close to the time of death (period effect) or by risk factors determined by the generation into which a person is born (cohort effect). Age-specific death rates for stroke (1931-1985) in England and Wales were analyzed to estimate the influence of these different effects. There were significant effects for age, period, and cohort on mortality from stroke with significantly different age and period effects in each sex. The effect of age was linear, with an increasing mortality with age in both sexes. Cohort analysis demonstrated a deceleration away from the previous trend in the mortality rates associated with birth cohorts born after 1880, followed by an acceleration in the trend of mortality rates in cohorts born after 1910. These relative increases in risk for cohorts born after 1910 were offset by a deceleration in mortality associated with periods from around 1951-1954. Since cohort effects are likely to be associated with a lifetime increase in risk of stroke mortality, it is difficult to predict the extent of any long-term fall in stroke incidence.

Adult↗

Role of antenatal care in reducing maternal mortality.

Maternal mortality in the developed nations has been considerably reduced, but it still is very high in developing nations. I carried out an indepth study of maternal mortality at N. Wadia Maternity Hospital, Bombay. India, from 1929 to 1988, which revealed that the MMR which was 1920 per 100,000 live births during 1929-1939 period has declined to 82 per 100,000 live births during 1980-1988 period. This achievement in reduction of maternal mortality over the decades was due to multiple factors like increased and effective antenatal, intranatal, and postnatal care. This study shows the apathy of pregnant women to come forward to avail of antenatal care though available even free of charge nearby. To give maximum benefits to pregnant women specially in the developing nations, we have to carry the antenatal care at the door-steps of the community.

Female↗

The effects of oral contraceptives and parity on ovarian cancer trends in women under 55 years of age.

Mortality from epithelial ovarian cancer is falling in women under 55 years of age in England and Wales. The decline does not appear to be a treatment effect nor to be attributable to changes in the rate of oophorectomy. Case-control studies have shown that high parity and oral contraceptive use are protective against the disease. We suggest that the decrease in mortality is compatible in timing and magnitude with exposure to oral contraceptives. No obvious effect on mortality attributable to parity was apparent in this analysis. Oral contraceptives may prove to be a widely acceptable means of preventing ovarian cancer, providing they do not increase breast cancer risk.

Adult↗

Perinatal mortality in rural Tanzania.

Prolonged labour was the most frequent cause of perinatal death in a rural hospital in the south western highlands of Tanzania. After the introduction of an obstetric policy aiming to prevent prolonged labour by making use of the guidelines of the partogram, perinatal mortality was reduced from 71 to 39 per 1000 births. Baird's clinico-pathological classification is still considered a useful instrument for the discovery of avoidable factors in perinatal deaths. The concept of the partogram should be an integral part of the training of medical auxiliaries in the field of maternal and child health (MCH).

Delivery, Obstetric↗

Childhood mortality after a high dose of vitamin A in a high risk population.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether a single high dose of vitamin A given to all children in communities with high mortality and malnutrition could affect mortality and to assess whether periodic community wide supplementation could be readily incorporated into an ongoing primary health programme. DESIGN: Opportunistic controlled trial. SETTING: Jumla district, Nepal. SUBJECTS: All children aged under 5 years; 3786 in eight subdistricts given single dose of vitamin A and 3411 in remaining eight subdistricts given no supplementation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality and cause of death in the five months after supplementation. RESULTS: Risk of death for children aged 1-59 months in supplemented communities was 26% lower (relative risk 0.74, 95% confidence interval 0.55 to 0.99) than in unsupplemented communities. The reduction in mortality was greatest among children aged 6-11 months: death rate (deaths/1000 child years at risk) was 133.8 in supplemented children and 260.8 in unsupplemented children (relative risk 0.51, 0.30 to 0.89). The death rate from diarrhoea was also reduced (63.5 supplemented v 97.5 unsupplemented; relative risk 0.65, 0.44 to 0.95). The extra cost per death averted was about $11. CONCLUSION: The results support a role for Vitamin A in increasing child survival. The supplementation programme was readily integrated with the ongoing community health programme at little extra cost.

Child Health Services↗

Primary medical care in Seychelles.

This paper describes some of the current health problems faced by a tropical country whose standard of living and lifestyle is approaching that of many countries in Western Europe. Long-term health problems such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes have become at least as important as infectious diseases. A change in approach to a more proactive style of primary care is needed to allow the contribution of community doctors to be effective. The system of primary care in the Republic of Seychelles is based on the UK model of general practice where recent improvements in education and organization are raising standards. How some of these improvements might be transferred elsewhere is discussed.

Adult↗

Mortality trend in a rapidly developing economy in Taiwan. Part II: Life expectancy and "potential years of life lost".

Taiwan has made remarkable economic progress in the last 30 years. The life expectancy of its population improved steadily during this period. A male child born in 1983 could look forward to 70.4 years of life and a female child to 75.3 years, gains of 17.5 years and 19.0 years, respectively, since 1950. The potential gains in life expectancy of the Taiwan population are also examined if the five leading causes of death are reduced or eliminated. In addition, this paper discusses the concept of potential productive years of life lost (PYLL), examines the leading causes of premature death and shows how this measure can be used to target prevention programs and health care planning.

Adolescent↗

Infant mortality and crisis in Mexico.

Data derived from the Encuesta Nacional de Fecundidad y Salud (ENFES) confirm that overall levels of infant mortality in Mexico have been steadily declining. However, a more specific analysis furnishes evidence that this decline has occurred at varying rates within different social groups, reflecting an increase in social inequalities. The analytical strategy used in this article leads to three basic conclusions: (1) the impact of the economic crisis on infant mortality is reflected not in a reversal of the declining trend but an increase in social inequalities; (2) certain variables universally accepted as determinants of infant mortality, such as mother's education, seem nonsignificant for some social sectors; and (3) certain biodemographic characteristics assumed to have a uniform mortality-related behavior vary among sectors, suggesting that even these constants are determined by social factors.

Educational Status↗

Standardized mortality ratios for Israel, 1983-86.

Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), standardized by age, sex, continent of birth, and religion are presented by cause and region for the period 1983-86. Regional SMRs ranged from 90.6 in Jerusalem to 107.6 in Ramla. These differences may be due to direct and indirect occupational, environmental and socioeconomic effects as well as to possible health service differences. SMRs can be used to indicate regions where further in-depth epidemiological investigations are called for in order to ascertain the reasons for elevated disease specific SMRs. In addition, SMRs could be used as a global measure of all effects in order to adjust any regional budgetary allocation formula, based on capitation.

Adolescent↗

Expanded programme on immunization (EPI). Safety of high titre measles vaccines.

Unexpected results suggesting decreased survival when compared with standard titre vaccine administered at 9 months of age have been found in some field studies evaluating the performance of high titre measles vaccine. Analytical difficulties have arisen because the studies were not specifically designed to measure survival. Nonetheless, careful analysis of the results from all of the high titre vaccine trials showed decreased survival of high titre vaccine recipients, in areas with high background mortality rates, compared with recipients of standard measles vaccines at 9 months. No systematic biases could be found in the studies to explain these differences. Statistical analysis of these data suggested that the findings were unlikely to be attributable to chance alone. The panel recommended that high titre measles vaccine derived from the original Edmonston measles vaccine isolate should no longer be recommended for use in immunization programmes. Further post-licensure field studies of new measles vaccines should take into account the results of these studies. Additional detailed epidemiological studies in populations that have received high titre vaccines and their controls were encouraged.

Child, Preschool↗

Patterns of demographic change in the Americas.

Considerable scholarly debate has focused on the nature of demographic change in the Americas before and after 1492. Recent research on human skeletal samples and related archeological materials suggests that morbidity and mortality were increasing throughout much of the Western Hemisphere before 1492 in response to increased population density, increased sedentism, and changing subsistence. The evidence suggests that after 1492 population reduction was caused not by continental pandemics but by localized or regional epidemics augmented by social and economic disruption. The twentieth century has witnessed remarkable Native American population recovery, fueled both by improvements in health care and changing definitions of "being Indian."

Disease Outbreaks↗

Perinatal mortality statistics in Harare 1980-1989.

Perinatal and neonatal mortality rates, in the Greater Harare Maternity Unit, which showed a modest decline from 1980 to 1985, have rise dramatically since then. Half of the rise in neonatal mortality rate is due to increased numbers and an increased mortality rate in babies of birth weight less than 1001g. There is also an increase in the numbers of deaths of large babies. There is a strong case for a broad-based on-going enquiry into the reasons for such changes.

Birth Rate↗

Maternal mortality and its prevention.

Maternal mortality rates in developed countries have declined steeply during the last 50 years. The introduction of sulphonamides and blood transfusion techniques contributed much to lowering maternal mortality rates. The maternal mortality rate in The Netherlands in 1983-1988 was 8.8/100,000 livebirths. In 57% substandard care factors could be identified. This suggests that further improvement in preventing maternal mortality is possible. Maternal mortality rates in developing countries are still unacceptably high as a result of high fertility and a high risk of dying each time a woman becomes pregnant. Complications of illegal abortion are responsible for 25-50% of maternal deaths. Safe contraception could probably result in an important reduction in the number of maternal deaths, but also the provision of accessible maternal health services is essential to reduce maternal mortality in developing countries.

Cause of Death↗

A study of 8 year neonatal deaths (1982-1989) of Toa Payoh Hospital.

A study of 233 neonatal deaths out of 30910 livebirths over an 8 year period in the Toa Payoh Hospital is done. The Hospital has since ceased providing obstetric and neonatal intensive services from April 1990 due to restructuring of hospital care. The Neonatal Mortality Rates (NNMR) from 1982-1989 ranged from 6.52 to 9.55 and there was no significant fall in trend (p = 0.13). One hundred and thirteen (48.5%) neonates who died were below 1500gm (VLBW). Various causes of neonatal deaths were examined and there was a decline in respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) death rates (p less than 0.0002). Deaths due to asphyxia (p greater than 0.05) and infections (p greater than 0.05) have not declined significantly over the same period. It is also observed that less VLBW babies died over this 8 year period and the VLBW mortality rates (p less than 0.02) have declined. However, the congenital malformation mortality has also not declined significantly (p = 0.92) though early study (1972-1981) showed an increasing trend of malformation deaths among total neonatal deaths (p less than 0.02). Improvement in VLBW and RDS management has not contributed to a significant decline in NNMR. It is observed that more VLBW babies were born during this 8 year period (p = 0.01) especially so in the less than 1000 gm group (p = 0.0005) and the survival of VLBW babies has improved (45.5% to 75.8% alive) as a result of advances in neonatal intensive care. The reasons for increase in incidence of VLBW births in the past few years are not known.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Cause of Death↗

Infant mortality in the Western Galilee, 1964-86.

The infant mortality rate (IMR) in the Jewish and Arab populations in the Western Galilee was studied during the 2-year period 1985-86, and compared with those of previous surveys conducted since 1964-65. The IMR declined steadily during the two decades, from 33.6 to 8.5/1,000 in the Jewish population and from 49.2 to 18.2/1,000 in the Arab population. The decline was noted in both neonatal and postneonatal periods. Analysis of the causes of death showed that enteric and respiratory infections ranked high in the first and second surveys (1964-65 and 1970) and decreased to a low level in both population groups in recent years, but were still relatively high among Arab infants living in villages. The decrease in the IMR seems to be the result of an improvement in the general living conditions of the population and the efficiency of the health services.

Ethnicity↗