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PubMed1988

On the theory and measurement of the determinants of mortality.

This article develops a model of mortality that shows how biological, demographic, and environmental factors interact to affect an individual's probability of dying. To illustrate the usefulness of the model, we derive from it (as special cases) the Brass system of model life tables and the proportional-hazard mortality model and apply a logit version of the model to analyze the determinants of child mortality in Sri Lanka.

Actuarial Analysis↗
PubMed2005

Determinants of mortality in patients undergoing cardiac resynchronization therapy: baseline clinical, echocardiographic, and angioscintigraphic evaluation prior to resynchronization.

BACKGROUND: In dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) patients (pts) with cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) for ventricular dyssynchrony, long-term predictors of mortality and morbidity remain poorly investigated. METHOD AND RESULTS: We reviewed data of 102 pts, 68 +/- 10 years, NYHA Class II-IV (14 Class II, 67 Class III, 21 Class IV), who benefited from CRT (69 CRT, 33 CRT-ICD). Fifty-two patients had an ischemic DCM, 36 a previously implanted conventional PM/ICD, 29 a permanent atrial fibrillation, and 19 needed dobutamine in the month preceding implant. QRS duration was 187 +/- 35 ms, left ventricular end-diastolic diameter 72 +/- 10 mm, mitral regurgitation severity 1.9 +/- 0.8, echographic aorto-pulmonary electromechanical delay 61.5 +/- 25 ms and septo-lateral left intraventricular delay 86 +/- 56 ms, pulmonary artery pressure (PAP) 43 +/- 11 mmHg, angioscintigraphic left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) 20 +/- 9%, and right ventricular EF 30.5 +/- 14%. Over a mean follow-up of 23 +/- 20 months, 26 pts died (18 heart failures (HFs), 1 arrhythmic storm, 7 noncardiac deaths). Positive univariate predictors of death from any cause were NYHA Class IV (P < 0.001), and need for dobutamine the month preceding CRT (P < 0.008), while use of beta-blocking agents (P < 0.08) and left ventricular EF (P < 0.09) were negative ones. NYHA Class IV was the only independent predictor at multivariate analysis (P < 0.01). Survival at 24 months was 85% in Class II, 80% in Class III, and 37% in Class IV (II vs III, P = ns; III vs IV, P < 0.001). When using a composite endpoint of death from any cause and unplanned rehospitalization for a major cardiovascular event, there were 48 events (14 HF deaths, 3 noncardiac deaths, 26 HF rehospitalizations, 2 paroxysmal atrial fibrillation, 2 sustained ventricular tachycardia, 1 nonfatal pulmonary embolism). Predictors of death from any cause/unplanned rehospitalization for a major cardiovascular event in the follow-up were NYHA Class IV (P < 0.001), need for dobutamine during the month preceding CRT (P < 0.002), and PAP (<0.02). NYHA Class IV was the only independent predictor at multivariate analysis (P < 0.05). Event-free proportion at 24 months was 70% in Class II, 64% in Class III, and 37% in Class IV (II vs III, P = ns; III vs IV, P < 0.01). When considering determinants of mortality only in NYHA Class IV patients, no variable was significantly correlated to mortality. Need for dobutamine during the last month preceding CRT did not add an adjunctive mortality risk. CONCLUSION: Baseline NYHA Class IV at implantation appears as the most important determinant of a poor clinical outcome in terms of both mortality and morbidity. No predictive criteria seem available for NYHA Class IV patients, in order to discriminate who will die after CRT and who will not. NYHA Class IV strongly influences the clinical outcome, suggesting that, in future studies planned on mortality and rehospitalization as major endpoints, baseline NYHA Class IV should be separately taken into account.

Adrenergic beta-Agonists↗
PubMed2002

Is age an independent determinant of mortality in cardiac surgery as suggested by the EuroSCORE?

BACKGROUND: The proportion of older patients in cardiac surgery is continuously increasing. 37% of patients undergoing heart surgery in Germany in the year 2000 were 70 years of age and older. We have studied the role of age as a determinant of mortality in cardiac surgery in our institutional patient population. METHODS: We have calculated the EuroSCORE and the corresponding age-adjusted EuroSCORE in 8769 patients who underwent heart surgery between January 1996 and January 2002 and collected the information on the occurrence of postoperative complications and 30-days mortality. RESULTS: The multimorbidity increased with ascending age. Both the EuroSCORE and the age-adjusted EuroSCORE values increased significantly with age in the whole group of patients as well as in the group of patients who were alive 30 days after heart surgery. The incidence of postoperative complications and 30-days mortality increased significantly with age. In patients who died within 30 days after surgery, the EuroSCORE increased significantly with age, whereas the age-adjusted EuroSCORE did not. The occurrence of diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension and atrial fibrillation, i.e., the risk factors not considered by the EuroSCORE, exhibited a significant age dependence in our patients. The univariate analysis identified the significant dependence of 30-days mortality on diabetes and atrial fibrillation. The stepwise logistic regression analysis showed the dependence of mortality on diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: On the background of the well-known age-dependent structural and functional changes of different body organs, our data show that age is a significant risk indicator in cardiac surgery, strongly correlating with morbidity and mortality. Consequently, special preventive and therapeutic measures are required in clinical environment in the case of elderly patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1999

On the determinants of mortality at the population level.

To attain a long and healthy life has always been one of the major goals of humanity. The Chinese emperors, the Egyptian pharaohs and the Aztec kings all aspired to become immortal. To try to avoid mortality and to decrease morbidity at the population level is the role of public health, taken in its broadest sense, including both preventive and curative medicine. In this review we will try to identify the major determinants of mortality. Only when we are able to identify the major causes of mortality and morbidity can public health be approached in a rational way. The emphasis will be on mortality because, in our opinion, populations with a long life expectancy also have a low age-specific morbidity.

Cardiovascular Diseases↗
PubMed1997

Clinically recognized cardiac dysfunction: an independent determinant of mortality among critically ill patients. Is there a role for serial measurement of cardiac troponin I?

OBJECTIVE: To determine the relative importance of clinically recognized cardiac dysfunction and unrecognized cardiac injury to hospital mortality. DESIGN: Prospective, blinded, single-center study. SETTING: Medical ICU of Barnes-Jewish Hospital, St. Louis, a university-affiliated teaching hospital. PATIENTS: Two hundred sixty adult patients requiring admission to the medical ICU. INTERVENTIONS: Daily blood collection. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The presence of cardiac dysfunction (myocardial infarction, unstable angina, cardiac arrest, or congestive heart failure) as determined by the physicians responsible for the care of the patient. Daily measurement of levels of cardiac troponin I, a sensitive, highly specific, and long-lived marker of myocardial injury. RESULTS: Fifty-five (21.2%) patients had clinical evidence of cardiac dysfunction, among whom 22 (40%) had an elevated level of cardiac troponin I. A total of 41 (15.8%) patients had evidence of acute myocardial injury based on elevated levels of cardiac troponin I. Patients with clinically recognized cardiac dysfunction had a significantly greater hospital mortality rate compared to patients without clinically recognized cardiac dysfunction (45.5% vs 10.2%; p < 0.001). Similarly, patients with elevated blood levels of cardiac troponin I had a greater hospital mortality rate compared to patients without elevated blood levels of cardiac troponin I (26.8% vs 16.0%; p = 0.095). Multiple logistic-regression analysis controlling for potential confounding variables demonstrated that the presence of clinically recognized cardiac dysfunction was independently associated with hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio = 3.0; 95% confidence interval = 1.9 to 4.8; p = 0.016). However, having an elevated blood level of cardiac troponin I was not found to be an independent determinant of hospital mortality. CONCLUSION: Among critically ill medical patients, clinically recognized cardiac dysfunction is an independent determinant of hospital mortality. The identification of unrecognized cardiac injury, using serial measurements of cardiac troponin I, did not independently contribute to the prediction of hospital mortality.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Renal failure as a determinant of mortality after cardiac transplantation.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with heart failure frequently develop renal failure, which increases the mortality rate among patients undergoing cardiac transplantation. PURPOSE: To determine whether preoperative renal function influenced postoperative mortality in cardiac transplantation recipients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The measurements of plasma urea, plasma creatinine, and 24-hour creatinine clearance in patients who underwent cardiac transplantation were correlated with mortality at 30, 90, and 365 days after the procedure, using Student t test for continuous variables and the chi-square test for categorical variables. RESULTS: All variables correlated with mortality, particularly plasma creatinine at 30, 90, and 365 days (P =.029,.003, and.0029, respectively). CONCLUSION: Preoperative renal failure is a mortality indicator in cardiac transplantation recipients.

Female↗
PubMed1992

Base deficit stratifies mortality and determines therapy.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association of base deficit with mortality and other factors affecting mortality. DESIGN: Retrospective review. SETTING: Tertiary care center. PARTICIPANTS: Consecutive samples of 3791 trauma patients admitted with an arterial blood gas sample taken in the first 24 hours. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age, injury mechanism, head injury, shock (systolic blood pressure less than 90 mm Hg), Revised Trauma Score, TRISS probability of survival Ps, and mortality. RESULTS: Most (3038) patients (80.1%) exhibited a base deficit. Base deficit, age, injury mechanism, and head injury were associated with mortality using logistic regression. Age less than 55 years, no head injury, and a base deficit of -15 mmol/L were associated with 25% mortality. Age greater than or equal to 55 years with no head injury or age less than 55 years with a head injury and a base deficit of -8 mmol/L were associated with a 25% mortality. When shock was added to the model, all factors remained significant, and base deficit was supplemental to blood pressure. Base deficit also added significantly to the Revised Trauma Score and TRISS measurements. CONCLUSIONS: The base deficit is an expedient and sensitive measure of both the degree and the duration of inadequate perfusion. It is useful as a clinical tool and enhances the predictive ability of both the Revised Trauma Score and TRISS.

Academic Medical Centers↗
PubMed2005

The GLU298ASP variant of nitric oxide synthase interacts with asymmetric dimethyl arginine in determining cardiovascular mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease.

OBJECTIVES: Impaired nitric oxide generation and accumulation of the endogenous inhibitor of nitric oxide synthase (NOS), asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA), have been identified as strong predictors of cardiovascular outcomes in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). We evaluated the role of endothelial NOS (eNOS) gene polymorphisms and its interaction with plasma ADMA in the high cardiovascular complications rate of these patients. METHODS: The relationship between the Glu298Asp variant of eNOS and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was assessed in a cohort study including 261 ESRD patients that were followed up for an average of 42 months. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 138 patients died, 81 of them (i.e. 59% of total deaths) of cardiovascular causes. On univariate Cox's regression analysis, eNOS genotype tended to be related to all-cause death but failed to reach formal statistical significance (P for trend=0.11). However, eNOS genotype showed a significant association with cardiovascular mortality in statistical models, including traditional risk factors and factors peculiar to ESRD, and became even stronger when plasma ADMA was forced into the Cox model (P=0.006). Furthermore, the risk of cardiovascular death was maximum in heterozygotes and homozygotes patients carrying the risk allele and in those having high ADMA levels (hazard ratio=2.71, 95% confidence interval 1.38-5.35, P=0.004) compared to those having just one of these two risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: The T allele of the Glu298Asp polymorphism predicts cardiovascular mortality and interacts with plasma ADMA in determining this outcome in dialysis patients.

Adult↗
PubMed1987

Determinants of mortality in pediatric patients with greater than 70% full-thickness total body surface area thermal injury treated by early total excision and grafting.

Recent advancements in burn care have improved the survival rates of victims with severe burn injuries. The total mortality rate in a series of 1,057 pediatric patients admitted to Shriners Burns Institute Galveston Unit between 1982 and 1986 was 2.7%. The burn size resulting in a 50% death rate was 95% of the total body surface area (TBSA). In this study 19 survivors and 13 nonsurvivors with greater than 70% full-thickness TBSA burn injuries were compared. All survivors were adequately resuscitated upon arrival 11% sustained an inhalation injury. Forty-six per cent of the nonsurvivors sustained an inhalation injury; 31% were not initially adequately resuscitated. The presence of preadmission shock and inhalation injury were early determinants of mortality with secondary renal, pulmonary, or cardiovascular collapse being the later predictors of mortality in these massively burned pediatric patients.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1989

Gentamicin pharmacokinetics, nephrotoxicity, and prediction of mortality in febrile neutropenic patients.

The pharmacokinetics of gentamicin in 34 febrile neutropenic patients (40 courses) were compared with those in 40 nonneutropenic patients receiving the drug. No pharmacokinetic differences were seen in half-life, volume of distribution (liter per kilogram; total and ideal body weight), or clearance (milliliter per minute per 1.73 m2). The incidences of nephrotoxicity in the two groups were not statistically different. Because of the small number of patients with positive cultures, no relationship between initial peak serum gentamicin concentration and mortality could be determined. Mortality risk factors that were determined to be statistically important included presence of pneumonia, persistent fever in the presence of anti-infective therapy of more than 1 week duration, and peak serum creatinine of greater than 1.2 mg/dl. Initial aminoglycoside dosing in the febrile neutropenic patient should be similar to that in the nonneutropenic patient, with concentrations in serum monitored and doses adjusted accordingly.

Agranulocytosis↗
PubMed1987

Clinical determinants of mortality in chronic congestive heart failure secondary to idiopathic dilated or to ischemic cardiomyopathy.

To determine which of the many clinical parameters routinely collected influence mortality in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF), 201 patients with idiopathic or ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy were prospectively followed for a 28-month study period. Mean age of the study group was 62 +/- 10 years, 60% had ischemic cardiomyopathy, and two-thirds were in New York Heart Association functional class II or III. Fifteen clinical variables were analyzed using a Cox proportional hazards model, while individual variables also were calculated for independent prognostic significance. There were 85 deaths, 26 (31%) of which were sudden cardiac deaths. Three characteristics at the study entry independently predicted an increased mortality risk: left ventricular ejection fraction, maximal oxygen uptake and ischemic cardiomyopathy. A Cox proportional hazards model showed that the combination of VO2max, S3 and the diagnosis of ischemic cardiomyopathy provided the best estimates of risk for an early death. Mortality for the low-risk group was only 5% at 6 months and 10% at 1 year. In contrast, in patients with an S3, ischemic cardiomyopathy and low maximal oxygen uptake, 6-month mortality was 24% and 36% at 1 year (p less than 0.001). Thus, these patients at high risk with left ventricular dysfunction associated with ischemic heart disease, a decreasing exercise tolerance and the development of an S3 should be strongly considered for an interventional trial with the aim of decreasing mortality.

Adult↗
PubMed1995

Age variations in the proximate determinants of child mortality in south-west Nigeria.

Age variations in the influences of three sets of proximate factors on child survival in Ondo State, Nigeria, during 1981-86 are described. Biodemographic factors covary very strongly with mortality risks during the first month of life, weakly during months 1-11, and imperceptibly beyond infancy. Microenvironmental factors progressively strongly covary with mortality after the neonatal period, while health services accessibility and care factors broadly covary strongly with mortality throughout early childhood. Patterns in the size of the hypothetical population-level impacts of these factors suggest that promoting assisted use of toilet facilities within households by under-5s and wider provision of dispensaries and hospitals would yield cost-effective and notable reductions in overall childhood mortality levels in the study setting.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2001

The role of cultural and economic determinants in mortality decline in the Netherlands, 1875/1879-1920/1924: a regional analysis.

The objective of this study was to determine the relative importance of cultural and economic factors in mortality decline in the Netherlands in the periods 1875/1879-1895/1899 and 1895/1899-1920/1924. Mortality data by region, age, sex and cause of death as well as population data were derived from Statistics Netherlands for the years 1875/1879, 1885/1889, 1895/1899, 1910/1914, 1920/1924. Regional mortality declines were estimated on the basis of Poisson regression models. In a multivariate analysis the estimated declines were associated with economic (wealth tax) and cultural variables (% Roman Catholics and secularisation) corrected for confounders (soiltype, urbanisation). In the period from 1875/1879-1895/1899, %Roman Catholics was significantly associated with all-cause mortality decline and with mortality decline from diseases other than infectious diseases. Mortality declined less rapidly in areas with a high percentage of Roman Catholics. Secularisation was significantly associated with infectious-disease mortality decline. In areas with a high percentage population without a religious affiliation, mortality declined more rapidly. In the period from 1895/1899 to 1920/1924, wealth tax was significantly associated with all-cause and infectious-disease mortality decline. Mortality declined more rapidly in wealthy areas. Intermediary factors in the relationship between cultural factors and mortality decline were fertility decline, but more importantly, the number of medical doctors per 100,000 inhabitants. No intermediary factors were found for the association between the economic variable and mortality decline. Cultural and economic factors both played an important role in mortality decline in The Netherlands, albeit in different periods of time. The analysis of intermediary factors suggests that the acceptance of new ideas on hygiene and disease processes was an important factor in the association between culture and mortality decline in the late 19th century.

Confounding Factors, Epidemiologic↗
PubMed2006

Determinants of mortality for adults with cystic fibrosis admitted in Intensive Care Unit: a multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Intensive care unit (ICU) admission of adults with cystic fibrosis (CF) is controversial because of poor outcome. This appraisal needs re-evaluation following recent changes in both CF management and ICU daily practice. Objectives were to determine long-term outcome of adults with CF admitted in ICU and to identify prognostic factors. METHODS: Retrospective multicenter study of 60 ICU hospitalizations for 42 adult CF patients admitted between 2000 and 2003. Reason for ICU admission, ventilatory support provided and one-year survival were recorded. Multiple logistic analysis was used to determine predictors of mortality. RESULTS: Prior to ICU admission, all patients (mean age 28.1 +/- 8 yr) had a severe lung disease (mean FEV1 28 +/- 12% predicted; mean PaCO2 47 +/- 9 mmHg). Main reason for ICU hospitalization was pulmonary infective exacerbation (40/60). At admission, noninvasive ventilation was used in 57% of cases and was successful in 67% of patients. Endotracheal intubation was implemented in 19 episodes. Overall ICU mortality rate was 14%. One year after ICU discharge, 10 of the 28 survivors have been lung transplanted. Among recognized markers of CF disease severity, only the annual FEV1 loss was associated with a poor outcome (HR = 1.47 [1.18-1.85], p = 0.001). SAPSII (HR = 1.08 [1.03-1.12], p < 0.001) and endotracheal intubation (HR = 16.60 [4.35-63.34], p < 0.001) were identified as strong independent predictors of mortality. CONCLUSION: Despite advanced lung disease, adult patients with CF admitted in ICU have high survival rate. Endotracheal intubation is associated with a poor prognosis and should be used as the last alternative. Although efforts have to be made in selecting patients with CF likely to benefit from ICU resources, ICU admission of these patients should be considered.

Adult↗
PubMed1981

Determination of mortality risk in obstructive pulmonary syndromes: physical examination compared with measurement of forced expired volume in one second.

A standardised physical examination based on four clinical signs was compared with the FEV1 with regard to ability to determine five-year mortality risk in subjects with varying degrees of obstructive airway disease. Both evaluation methods identified low, intermediate, and high risk groups within the population studied. Individuals with no positive physical signs, or with an FEV1 of 70% of predicted or more had mortality not significantly greater than that predicted on the basis of standard mortality tables. There was no difference between the FEV1 and the physical examination in ability to predict mortality.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Hematoma growth is a determinant of mortality and poor outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: Although volume of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is a predictor of mortality, it is unknown whether subsequent hematoma growth further increases the risk of death or poor functional outcome. METHODS: To determine if hematoma growth independently predicts poor outcome, the authors performed an individual meta-analysis of patients with spontaneous ICH who had CT within 3 hours of onset and 24-hour follow-up. Placebo patients were pooled from three trials investigating dosing, safety, and efficacy of rFVIIa (n = 115), and 103 patients from the Cincinnati study (total 218). Other baseline factors included age, gender, blood glucose, blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Score (GCS), intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH), and location. RESULTS: Overall, 72.9% of patients exhibited some degree of hematoma growth. Percentage hematoma growth (hazard ratio [HR] 1.05 per 10% increase [95% CI: 1.03, 1.08; p < 0.0001]), initial ICH volume (HR 1.01 per mL [95% CI: 1.00, 1.02; p = 0.003]), GCS (HR 0.88 [95% CI: 0.81, 0.96; p = 0.003]), and IVH (HR 2.23 [95% CI: 1.25, 3.98; p = 0.007]) were all associated with increased mortality. Percentage growth (cumulative OR 0.84 [95% CI: 0.75, 0.92; p < 0.0001]), initial ICH volume (cumulative OR 0.94 [95% CI: 0.91, 0.97; p < 0.0001]), GCS (cumulative OR 1.46 [95% CI: 1.21, 1.82; p < 0.0001]), and age (cumulative OR 0.95 [95% CI: 0.92, 0.98; p = 0.0009]) predicted outcome modified Rankin Scale. Gender, location, blood glucose, and blood pressure did not predict outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Hematoma growth is an independent determinant of both mortality and functional outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage. Attenuation of growth is an important therapeutic strategy.

Aged↗
PubMed1998

Subjective health status as a determinant of mortality among African-American elders.

This study examines the efficacy of self-rated health as a determinant of 6-year survival among the 1209 African-American respondents in the Longitudinal Study on Aging (LSOA). The association between self-rated health and mortality risk has been established previously; however, this relationship has not been directly tested in a nonwhite sample. Findings indicate that self-rated health is a predictor of mortality that is independent of several control variables (income, sex, age, education, and marital status) and two objective health status indicators (bed days and doctor visits). However, it is not independent of limitations with activities of daily living. When all three objective health measures were included in a single model, self-rated health was not an independent predictor of mortality. However, when the full model was specified on sex-specific subsamples, the analysis found that self-rated health was an independent predictor of mortality for women, but not for men.

Activities of Daily Living↗