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Risk assessment methodology: maximum tolerated dose and two-stage carcinogenesis models.

The Committee on Risk Assessment Methodology of the Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology of the National Academy of Sciences has considered issues related to the use of the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in carcinogenesis bioassays and of 2-stage models of carcinogenesis. In each case, the goal has been to consider whether sufficient information is available to lead to a change in current methodology used by regulatory agencies in assessing risk. The majority of the committee favored retention of the MTD but recommended that lower doses also be used for cancer bioassays and, if the results are positive, performance of additional mechanistic studies aimed at improved extrapolation to environmentally relevant concentrations. The minority recommended that additional preliminary studies be done in order to obtain information about the highest dose relevant to extrapolation to humans for use in the cancer bioassay. Two-stage carcinogenesis models were found to be an excellent approach to increase understanding but required an extensive toxicological data base beyond that available for most chemicals. These deliberations have highlighted the value of increased understanding of the basic mechanisms of action of potential cancer-causing chemicals in order to advance the methodology of risk assessment.

Animals↗

Leucovorin and maximum tolerated dose toxicity of methotrexate in rats.

High-dose methotrexate (HD-MTX) is widely used in combination chemotherapy and can be handled without life-threatening toxicity in combination with leucovorin (LV) rescue. However, in an experimental animal model for testing of short-term HD-MTX effects in anesthetized rats, the authors previously demonstrated intolerable toxicity and death within a few hours in some animals. Serum levels were below levels routinely found in patients on HD-MTX treatment. This study was aimed at disclosure of possible mechanisms for acute toxicity of MTX in rats. The previously determined maximum tolerated dose of 5 g/kg MTX was used as the test dose. The animals that died showed sudden reduction in heart rate and blood pressure. LV, 1 g/kg infused immediately prior to MTX, changed MTX elimination kinetics, but did not change the acute toxicity. The data of this study together with additional evidence obtained in the experimental model, suggest that MTX acute toxicity may not be related to its antiproliferative effect, but rather to perturbation of endothelial cell and platelet function.

Animals↗

Maximum-tolerated doses of ifosfamide, carboplatin, and etoposide given over 6 days followed by autologous stem-cell rescue: toxicity profile.

PURPOSE: A phase I dose-escalation study of ifosfamide, carboplatin, and etoposide (ICE) with autologous stem-cell rescue (ASCR) was conducted to determine the maximum-tolerated dose (MTD) of ICE given over 6 days. PATIENTS AND METHODS: One hundred fifty-four patients with a variety of poor-prognosis malignancies received escalating doses of ifosfamide 6,000 to 24,000 mg/m2, carboplatin 1,200 to 2,100 mg/m2, and etoposide 1,800 to 3,000 mg/m2 divided over 6 days. Mesna was administered in a dose equal to ifosfamide. ASCR was performed 48 hours after the completion of ICE. The source of stem cells was bone marrow (BM) in patients without BM micrometastases and peripheral-blood stem cells (PBSC) in patients with BM micrometastases. Patients were evaluated for hematologic and nonhematologic toxicities, as well as response to therapy. RESULTS: The MTD of the ICE regimen is 20,100 mg/m2 of ifosfamide, 1,800 mg/m2 of carboplatin, and 3,000 mg/m2 of etoposide. The dose-limiting toxicities of ICE were CNS toxicity and acute renal failure. Additionally, reversible elevations of serum creatinine levels were noted in 29% of patients treated at the upper dose levels. Forty-six patients were treated at the MTD. Severe, reversible mucositis and enteritis were the major nonhematologic toxicities seen at the MTD (78% and 33%, respectively). The overall mortality rate was 8% for all dose levels (4% at the MTD). At the MTD, the median times to an absolute neutrophil count > or = 0.5 x 10(9)/L, to a platelet count > or = 20 x 10(9)/L, and to discharge were 18, 22, and 24 days, respectively. The overall response rate was 40% for 77 patients with assessable disease at the time of treatment. CONCLUSION: ICE is well tolerated, with acceptable hematopoietic side effects and predictable organ toxicity.

Acute Disease↗

Comparison of the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) dermal response in three strains of mice following repeated exposure to acrylic acid.

The dermal response of three strains of mice (ICR, C3H and B6C3F1) exposed to repeated doses of 0, 1 or 4% acrylic acid was examined over 13 wk. Microscopic and gross changes to the skin were classified as being indicative of exceeding the maximum tolerated dose (MTD), reaching the MTD, or tolerating the dose based on proposed MTD guidelines established in US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Workshops on dermal carcinogenesis bioassays. A significant number of animals in all three strains with repeated exposure to 4% acrylic acid experienced skin irritation that was classified as having reached or exceeded the MTD compared with animals exposed to either 1% acrylic acid or the 0% acrylic acid acetone control. These results were observed within the first 3 wk of exposure, but there was some accommodation to irritation by 8 wk of exposure. Microscopic findings provided a more sensitive index for exceeding MTD than gross observations taken only at autopsy, but generally correlated well for MTD if gross observations were taken at regular intervals during treatment. That is, to set MTD, gross observations could be used if taken over the entire course of the exposure, but using microscopic findings was generally a more reliable or sensitive measure. EPA guidelines suggest that it is inappropriate to conduct a dermal bioassay at concentrations that exceed the MTD. Acrylic acid at 4% in acetone clearly exceeded the MTD based on microscopic or gross observation criteria. At 4%, strain differences were evident by gross observation only, with the ICR strain being less susceptible to irritation than C3H or B6C3F1 strains. These strain differences were not apparent with microscopic examination. Acrylic acid at 1% in acetone, although demonstrating signs of minimal irritation, was fairly well tolerated by all mice in all strains. Thus, acrylic acid at 1% in acetone, one-quarter of the concentration that was in clear excess of the MTD, would be the appropriate dose concentration for lifetime skin studies based on MTD criteria.

Acrylates↗

Phase I study to determine the maximum-tolerated dose of radiation in standard daily and hyperfractionated-accelerated twice-daily radiation schedules with concurrent chemotherapy for limited-stage small-cell lung cancer.

PURPOSE: An improvement in radiation dose schedule is necessary to increase local tumor control and survival in limited-stage small-cell lung cancer. The goal of this study was to determine the maximum-tolerated dose (MTD) of radiation (RT) in both standard daily and hyperfractionated-accelerated (HA) twice-daily RT schedules in concurrent chemoradiation. METHODS: The study design consisted of a sequential dose escalation in both daily and HA twice-daily RT regimens. RT dose to the initial volume was kept at 40 to 40.5 Gy, while it was gradually increased to the boost volume by adding a 7% to 11 % increment of total dose to subsequent cohorts. The MTD was defined as the radiation dose level at one cohort below that which resulted in more than 33% of patients experiencing grade > or = 4 acute esophagitis and/or grade > or = 3 pulmonary toxicity. The study plan included nine cohorts, five on HA twice-daily and four on daily regimens for the dose escalation. Chemotherapy consisted of three cycles of cisplatin 33 mg/m2/d on days 1 to 3 over 30 minutes, cyclophosphamide 500 mg/m2 on day 1 intravenously (IV) over 1 hour, and etoposide 80 mg/m2/d on days 1 to 3 over 1 hour every 3 weeks (PCE) and two cycles of PE. RT was started at the initiation of the fourth cycle of chemotherapy. RESULTS: Fifty patients were enrolled onto the study. The median age was 60 years (range, 38-79), sex ratio 2.3:1 for male to female, weight loss less than 5% in 73%, and performance score 0 to 1 in 94% and 2 in 6% of patients. In HA twice-daily RT, grade > or = 4 acute esophagitis was noted in two of five (40%), two of seven (29%), four of six (67%), and five of six patients (86%) at 50 (1.25 Gy twice daily), 45, 50, and 55.5 Gy in 1.5 Gy twice daily, 5 d/wk, respectively. Grade > or = 3 pulmonary toxicity was not seen in any of these 24 patients. Therefore, the MTD for HA twice-daily RT was judged to be 45 Gy in 30 fractions over 3 weeks. In daily RT, grade > or = 4 acute esophagitis was noted in zero of four, zero of four, one of five (20%), and two of six patients (33%) at 56, 60, 66, and 70 Gy on a schedule of 2 Gy per fraction per day, five fractions per week. Grade > or = 3 pneumonitis was not observed in any of the 19 patients. Thus, the MTD for daily RT was judged to be at least 70 Gy in 35 fractions over 7 weeks. Grade 4 granulocytopenia and thrombocytopenia were observed in 53% and 6% of patients, respectively, during the first three cycles of PCE. During chemotherapy cycles 4 to 5, grade 4 granulocytopenia and thrombocytopenia were noted in 43% and 29% of patients at 45 Gy in 30 fractions over 3 weeks (MTD) by HA twice-daily RT and 50% and 17% at 70 Gy in 35 fractions over 7 weeks (MTD) by daily RT, respectively. The overall tumor response consisted of complete remission (CR) in 51% (24 of 47), partial remission (PR) in 38% (1 8 of 47), and stable disease in 2% (one of 47). The median survival time of all patients was 24.4 months and 2- and 3-year survival rates were 53% and 28%, respectively. With regard to the different radiation schedules, 2- and 3-year survival rates were 52% and 25% for the HA twice-daily and 54% and 35% for the daily RT cohorts. CONCLUSION: The MTD of HA twice-daily RT was determined to be 45 Gy in 30 fractions over 3 weeks, while it was judged to be at least 70 Gy in 35 fractions over 7 weeks for daily RT. A phase III randomized trial to compare standard daily RT with HA twice-daily RT at their MTD for local tumor control and survival would be a sensible research in searching for a more effective RT dose-schedule than those that are being used currently.

Adult↗

Temporal relationship of the induction of tolerance and physical dependence after continuous intoxication with maximum tolerable doses of ethanol in rats.

Rats were treated by intragastric intubation of a 20% ethanol solution in doses of 9-15 g/kg in 3-5 fractions for 1-7 days. Both tolerance and physical dependence were demonstrated after this treatment with the maximum tolerable doses to only a few days. Tolerance was assessed by signs of severity of intoxication: coma, loss of righting reflex, ataxia-3, ataxia-2, ataxia-1, sedation, and neutrality. During withdrawal, as blood ethanol concentrations approached 100 mg/dl the ethanol dependence phase was characterized by the onset of signs and responses of progressive severity: hyperactivity, tremors, spastic rigidity, and spontaneous convulsive seizures. A significant degree of tolerance was demonstrated for all signs of intoxication after 4 days of treatment, but did not reach maximum level even after 7 days. The severity of the withdrawal reactions intensified progressively to a maximum intensity after 4 days of treatment when as many as 72% of animals exhibited severe withdrawal signs and reactions including convulsive seizures. These different time courses suggest that tolerance and physical dependence are mediated through different mechanisms.

Alcoholism↗

Use of lung toxicity and lung particle clearance to estimate the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) for a fiber glass chronic inhalation study in the rat.

Short-term toxicity and lung clearance were assessed in rats exposed by inhalation to size-selected fibrous glass (FG) for 13 weeks. Results from this study and from a recent FG chronic inhalation study are presented here as guidelines for the selection of a maximum tolerated dose (MTD) for chronic inhalation studies of fibers. Fischer 344 rats were exposed using nose-only inhalation chambers, 6 hr/day, 5 days/week, for 13 weeks to one of five concentrations of FG (36, 206, 316, 552, or 714 fibers/cc; expressed gravimetrically, 3, 16, 30, 45, or 60 mg/m3) or to filtered air. Rats were then held for an additional 10 weeks of postexposure recovery. Test fiber was size-selected from glass wool having a chemical composition representative of building insulation. Rats were terminated at 7, 13, 19, and 23 weeks after the onset of exposure to evaluate pulmonary pathology, lung epithelium cell proliferation, lung fiber burden, and lung lavage cells and chemistry. The effect of fiber inhalation on lung clearance of innocuous microspheres was also evaluated: following fiber exposure, six rats/group were exposed to 85Sr-labeled 3.0-microns polystyrene microspheres by intratracheal inhalation and then monitored for whole-body radioactivity during the 10-week recovery period. Data from the short-term study support the choice of 30 mg/m3 as the MTD for the previous chronic FG study and also provide indicators of long-term lung toxicity and functional impairment that can be used to estimate the MTD for future chronic fiber inhalation studies.

Administration, Inhalation↗

Safety, tolerance, and pharmacokinetics of high-dose liposomal amphotericin B (AmBisome) in patients infected with Aspergillus species and other filamentous fungi: maximum tolerated dose study.

We conducted a phase I-II study of the safety, tolerance, and plasma pharmacokinetics of liposomal amphotericin B (L-AMB; AmBisome) in order to determine its maximally tolerated dosage (MTD) in patients with infections due to Aspergillus spp. and other filamentous fungi. Dosage cohorts consisted of 7.5, 10.0, 12.5, and 15.0 mg/kg of body weight/day; a total of 44 patients were enrolled, of which 21 had a proven or probable infection (13 aspergillosis, 5 zygomycosis, 3 fusariosis). The MTD of L-AMB was at least 15 mg/kg/day. Infusion-related reactions of fever occurred in 8 (19%) and chills and/or rigors occurred in 5 (12%) of 43 patients. Three patients developed a syndrome of substernal chest tightness, dyspnea, and flank pain, which was relieved by diphenhydramine. Serum creatinine increased two times above baseline in 32% of the patients, but this was not dose related. Hepatotoxicity developed in one patient. Steady-state plasma pharmacokinetics were achieved by day 7. The maximum concentration of drug in plasma (C(max)) of L-AMB in the dosage cohorts of 7.5, 10.0, 12.5, and 15.0 mg/kg/day changed to 76, 120, 116, and 105 microg/ml, respectively, and the mean area under the concentration-time curve at 24 h (AUC(24)) changed to 692, 1,062, 860, and 554 microg x h/ml, respectively, while mean CL changed to 23, 18, 16, and 25 ml/h/kg, respectively. These data indicate that L-AMB follows dose-related changes in disposition processing (e.g., clearance) at dosages of >or=7.5 mg/kg/day. Because several extremely ill patients had early death, success was determined for both the modified intent-to-treat and evaluable (7 days of therapy) populations. Response rates (defined as complete response and partial response) were similar for proven and probable infections. Response and stabilization, respectively, were achieved in 36 and 16% of the patients in the modified intent-to-treat population (n = 43) and in 52 and 13% of the patients in the 7-day evaluable population (n = 31). These findings indicate that L-AMB at dosages as high as 15 mg/kg/day follows nonlinear saturation-like kinetics, is well tolerated, and can provide effective therapy for aspergillosis and other filamentous fungal infections.

Adult↗

Pharmacokinetic and maximum tolerated dose study of micafungin in combination with fluconazole versus fluconazole alone for prophylaxis of fungal infections in adult patients undergoing a bone marrow or peripheral stem cell transplant.

In this dose escalation study, 74 adult cancer patients undergoing bone marrow or peripheral blood stem cell transplantation received fluconazole (400 mg/day) and either normal saline (control) (12 subjects) or micafungin (12.5 to 200 mg/day) (62 subjects) for up to 4 weeks. The maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of micafungin was not reached, based on the development of Southwest Oncology Group criteria for grade 3 toxicity; drug-related toxicities were rare. Commonly occurring adverse events considered related to micafungin were headache (6.8%), arthralgia (6.8%), hypophosphatemia (4.1%), insomnia (4.1%), maculopapular rash (4.1%), and rash (4.1%). Pharmacokinetic profiles for micafungin on days 1 and 7 were similar. The mean half-life was approximately 13 h, with little variance after repeated or increasing doses. Mean maximum concentrations of the drug in serum and areas under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 h were approximately proportional to dose. There was no clinical or kinetic evidence of interaction between micafungin and fluconazole. Five of 12 patients (42%) in the control group and 14 of 62 (23%) in the micafungin-plus-fluconazole groups had a suspected fungal infection during treatment which resulted in empirical treatment with amphotericin B. The combination of micafungin and fluconazole was found to be safe in this high-risk patient population. The MTD of micafungin was not reached even at doses up to 200 mg/day for 4 weeks. The pharmacokinetic profile of micafungin in adult cancer patients with blood or marrow transplants is consistent with the profile in healthy volunteers, and the area under the curve is proportional to dose.

Adolescent↗

Determination of the maximum tolerated dose of idarubicin when used in a combination chemotherapy program of reinduction of childhood ALL at first marrow relapse and a preliminary assessment of toxicity compared to that of daunorubicin: a report from the Childrens Cancer Study Group.

An escalating-dose trial of idarubicin, used weekly for 3 doses in combination with vincristine, prednisone, and L-asparaginase (VPLI), to reinduce remission of childhood ALL at first bone marrow relapse was conducted by the Childrens Cancer Study Group (CCSG). The maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of idarubicin, used in the manner, was determined to be 12.5 mg/m2/dose. Twelve of 16 (75%) evaluable patients in first marrow relapse of ALL treated at a dose of 10 or 12.5 mg/m2 entered a second complete remission, compared to 41 of 69 evaluable patients (59%) treated in a comparable way with daunorubicin (30 mg/m2) (VPLD). Prolonged myelosuppression was observed in both groups, but the frequency of documented bacterial sepsis and the duration of required hospitalization were greater among patients treated with idarubicin. No additional toxicity, specifically attributable to idarubicin, was observed at these doses.

Adolescent↗

A phase II study of recombinant beta-interferon at maximum tolerated dose in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer: a cancer and leukemia group B study.

Forty-one patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) were entered into a phase II study of high dose recombinant interferon (rIFN)-beta. Patients received intravenous (i.v.) rIFN-beta on a Monday, Wednesday, Friday schedule with a weekly dose escalation until > or = grade 3 toxicity or 720 x 10(6) IU/dose was achieved. Thirty-eight patients were eligible. Seventeen patients received the highest planned dose of rIFN-beta and 11 experienced dose-limiting toxicity at lower doses. Ten patients developed progressive disease before grade 3 toxicity was reached. There were no objective responses observed. Significant and dose-limiting toxicities included nausea and vomiting, fever, rigors, severe dyspnea, hypotension, and hypertension. IFN-beta has no measurable antitumor activity against NSCLC even at maximum tolerated doses (MTDs).

Adult↗

Maximum tolerable doses of intravenous zidovudine in combination with 5-fluorouracil and leucovorin in metastatic colorectal cancer patients. Clinical evidence of significant antitumor activity and enhancement of zidovudine-induced DNA single strand breaks in peripheral nuclear blood cells.

BACKGROUND: Experimental studies have demonstrated that 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) enhances zidovudine (AZT)-induced DNA strand breaks and cytotoxicity. Phase I studies have demonstrated that the maximum tolerable dose (MTD) of AZT is 8000 mg/sqm when administered i.v. over two hours after weekly 5-FU + l-leucovorin (LV), and that this combination has promising antitumor activity. The purpose of this study was therefore to evaluate the antitumor activity of weekly bolus 5-FU + LV + AZT, administered at its MTD, and to determine whether 5-FU enhances AZT-induced DNA strand breaks in blood nuclear cells. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Twenty-nine chemotherapy-naïve metastatic colorectal cancer patients with measurable disease entered the study to evaluate the activity of a weekly 5-FU 500 mg/m2 i.v. bolus + LV 250 mg/m2 i.v. two-hour infusion + AZT 8000 mg/m2 i.v. two-hour infusion. In 10 different patients, who during three different weeks received 5-FU + LV, AZT and 5-FU + LV + AZT, DNA strand breaks in blood nuclear cells were determined by a fluorescent analysis of DNA unwinding. RESULTS: Treatment was generally well tolerated and WHO grades III-IV toxicities, consisting mostly of diarrhea (17%), were uncommon. One patient died of severe diarrhea with consequent hypokalemia and cardiac arrhythmia. All patients were considered evaluable for response, and 3 (10%) complete and 10 (35%) partial responses were observed, for an objective response rate of 45% (95% confidence limit interval 26%-64%). Both 5-FU + LV and AZT decreased the percentage of double stranded DNA in nuclear blood cells. The greatest effect was observed with 5-FU + LV + AZT, which reduced the percentage of double stranded DNA to 50% and 36% after 24 and 48 hours, respectively, and this interaction between 5-FU + LV and AZT was found to be cumulative. CONCLUSIONS: These studies demonstrate that the present dose and schedule of AZT in combination with 5-FU + LV has significant activity in metastatic colorectal cancer and that the combination of 5-FU + LV with AZT increases the amount of DNA damage. Therefore, AZT in combination with 5-FU + LV warrants further study in colorectal cancer.

Adult↗

Maximum tolerable dose for avoidance of cataract after repeated exposure to ultraviolet radiation in rats.

The purpose of the present study was to determine the impact of inter-exposure interval between repeated equivalent exposures of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) on threshold accumulated dose for cataract development. Female Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided into 5 inter-exposure interval groups with 20 rats in each group. The inter-exposure intervals were 6 h, 1, 3, 9 and 30 days respectively. Each inter-exposure interval group was divided into 5 dose-subgroups. Only one eye of each rat was exposed to ultraviolet radiation (lambdamax=300 nm). The total dose incident on the cornea, in each subgroup varied between 0 approximately 10 kJ/m2. One week after the second exposure, the rats were sacrificed and both lenses were extracted. The intensity of forward light scattering was measured and macroscopic morphology was documented. Maximum tolerable dose (MTD) for each inter-exposure interval was estimated based on the experimentally determined dose-response function. The difference of intensity of light scattering between exposed and contralateral non-exposed lens decreased as a function of inter-exposure interval between the two equivalent exposures. The accumulated MTD2.3:16 was 5.3, 5.1, 5.4, 5.8, and 6.0 kJ/m2 UVR-B for the 6 h, 1, 3, 9 and 30 day inter-exposure interval between the two exposures, respectively. The shorter the inter-exposure interval between two subsequent exposures, the more damage. The time constant for repair of lens damage after in vivo exposure to close to threshold dose was estimated to be eight days and the fraction of repairable damage to be 20%. The accumulated threshold dose for damage after two repeated equivalent exposures to UVR-B increases as a function of inter-exposure interval up to at least 30 days inter-exposure interval.

Animals↗

A multitargeted, metronomic, and maximum-tolerated dose "chemo-switch" regimen is antiangiogenic, producing objective responses and survival benefit in a mouse model of cancer.

PURPOSE: A transgenic mouse model has revealed parameters of the angiogenic switch during multistep tumorigenesis of pancreatic islets, and demonstrated efficacy of antiangiogenic therapies. Pericytes have been revealed as functionally important for tumor neovasculature, using kinase inhibitors targeting their platelet-derived growth factor receptors (PDGFRs). Additionally, vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (VEGFR) inhibitors and metronomic chemotherapy show modest benefit against early- but not late-stage disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Seeking to improve efficacy against otherwise intractable end-stage pancreatic islet tumors, two receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors, imatinib and SU11248, were used to disrupt PDGFR-mediated pericyte support of tumor endothelial cells in concert with maximum-tolerated dose (MTD) or metronomic chemotherapy and/or VEGFR inhibition. RESULTS: Imatinib, despite equivocal efficacy as monotherapy, reduced pericyte coverage of tumor vessels and enhanced efficacy in combination with metronomic chemotherapy or VEGFR inhibition. A regimen involving all three was even better. MTD using cyclophosphamide caused transitory regression, but then rapid regrowth, in contrast to metronomic cyclophosphamide plus imatinib, which produced stable disease. The MTD regimen elicited apoptosis of tumor cells but not endothelial cells, whereas the other regimens increased endothelial cell apoptosis concordant with efficacy. A "chemo-switch" protocol, involving sequential MTD and then metronomic chemotherapy, overlaid with multitargeted inhibition of PDGFR and VEGFR, gave complete responses and unprecedented survival advantage in this model. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates a potentially tractable clinical strategy in a stringent preclinical model, wherein standard-of-care chemotherapy is followed by a novel maintenance regimen: PDFGR is targeted to disrupt pericyte support, while metronomic chemotherapy and/or VEGFR inhibitors target consequently sensitized endothelial cells, collectively destabilizing pre-existing tumor vasculature and inhibiting ongoing angiogenesis.

Adenoma, Islet Cell↗

Use of CFU-GM assay for prediction of human maximum tolerated dose of a new antitumoral drug: Yondelis (ET-743).

Acute cytotoxic exposure causes decreases in bone marrow progenitors that precedes the neutrophil nadir. Experiments in animal models reveal a relationship between the reduction in granulocyte-macrophage progenitors (CFU-GM) and the decrease in absolute neutrophil count [Toxicol. Pathol. 21 (1993) 241]. Recently, the prevalidation of a model for predicting acute neutropenia by the CFU-GM assay has been reported [Toxicol. In Vitro 15 (2001) 729]. The model was based on prediction of human MTD by adjusting the animal-derived MTD for the differential sensitivity between CFU-GM from animal species and humans. In this study, this model has been applied on a new antitumoral drug, Yondelis (Ecteinascidin; ET-743). Preclinical studies showed that hematotoxicity was the main side effect in mice, being the MTD of 600 microg/m2 [Drugs Future 21 (1996) 1155]. The sensitivity of myeloid progenitors was higher in mice than in humans, with IC90 values of 0.69+/-0.22 nM and 1.31+/-0.21 nM for murine and human CFU-GMs respectively. This study predicts a human MTD of 1145 microg/m2. The reported human MTD of ET-743 given as a 24-h continuous infusion every 3 weeks is 1800 microg/m2 [J. Clin. Oncol. 19 (2001) 1256]. Since our predicted MTD is within fourfold of the actual MTD (the interspecies variation in tolerated dose due to differences in clearance rates, metabolism pathways and infusion rate) the result confirms the profit of the prediction model.

Animals↗

Interval estimates of the probability of toxicity at the maximum tolerated dose for small samples.

Following on from the work of O'Quigley et al., we investigate the performance of interval estimates of the probability of toxicity following completion of a phase I clinical trial. Our particular focus is on very small sample sizes, not uncommon in phase I studies. Specifically, we study the situations for which the sample sizes are 12 or 16. Simulations are used to show that the coverage of the confidence intervals, even for very modest sample sizes, are close to nominal in most cases. Averaged over the range of situations considered, coverage rates are accurate for both sample sizes of 12 and 16. As for the larger sample size of 20, studied previously, it is possible to obtain further, albeit modest, improvements via the use of the Cornish-Fisher inversion.

Antineoplastic Agents↗