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The length of productive life of 103,214 Normande cows milked from 1979 to 1989 in purebred herds was analyzed using a mixed Weibull model: their probability of being culled, or hazard function, was supposed to be the product of a baseline Weibull hazard function and explanatory variables that were log-linear and time-dependent. Fixed effects that may have an impact on culling rate were successively added to the model. Two random effects, a herd-year and a sire effect, were also included. The dispersion parameter of the log-gamma prior distributions assumed for these effects was estimated maximizing a marginal posterior density obtained after algebraic integration of the corresponding random effect. The other effects and the Weibull parameter could not be integrated out easily. The probability of being culled was not changed by age at first calving but increased with stage of lactation. It also increased for low producing cows and for herds of decreasing size, especially during the 3 mo preceding the end of the period on which yearly milk production is calculated for the European Community quota system. This last phenomenon seems to be crucial for proper statistical and genetic analysis of length of productive life. The estimated variances of the herd-year and sire effects indicated a large influence of these effects on culling rate. Under certain assumptions, the standard deviation of sire effects can be assessed at > .5 expected complete lactations. This value is not reduced by consideration of differences in milk production of the cows.
A new method is presented for determining the growth rate and the probability of cell division (separation) during the cell cycle, using size distributions of cell populations grown under steady-state conditions. The method utilizes the cell life-length distribution, i.e., the probability that a cell will have any specific size during its life history. This method was used to analyze cell length distributions of six cultures of Escherichia coli, for which doubling times varied from 19 to 125 min. The results for each culture are in good agreement with a single model of growth and division kinetics: exponential elongation of cells during growth phase of the cycle, and normal distributions of length at birth and at division. The average value of the coefficient of variation was 13.5% for all strains and growth rates. These results, based upon 5,955 observations, support and extend earlier proposals that growth and division patterns of E. coli are similar at all growth rates and, in addition, identify the general growth pattern of these cells to be exponential.
After the introduction of endovascular repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA), both benefits and drawbacks of this new technique have been reported. To assess whether the new technique is an adequate substitute of conventional AAA repair, a randomised study is due. The Dutch Randomised Endovascular Aneurysm Management (DREAM) trial is a randomised multicenter trial enrolling patients eligible for elective treatment of infrarenal AAAs. In this study, the cost-effectiveness of endovascular aneurysm repair (EAR) is compared with that of conventional transabdominal surgery, in patients that are considered suitable for both types of treatment. The primary endpoint is combined operative mortality and morbidity. Secondary endpoints and additional assessments include event free survival, quality of life, length of hospital stay and costs. It is expected that the DREAM-trial will lead to a safe and controlled introduction of a new technology. Also, the medical community will obtain valid scientific evidence of the merits of endovascular AAA repair. Finally, policy makers will be provided with accurate cost-effectiveness data for the Dutch healthcare system. The aim of the present paper is to describe the background, methods and design of the DREAM-trial.
Since back injury is the largest workman's compensation claim in most industries, the relationship between selected personal characteristics and back injury in hospital nursing personnel were studied. The sample included 64 female nursing personnel, half back injured and half not. Demographic: Workers were more likely to be back injured if they were older, worked longer on nursing units requiring frequent lifting, had family members with back problems, and had family members whose back problems began at an early age. Physical: The back injured had less muscle flexibility, less keen proprioception, and greater unequal leg length. Life style: Back injured were more vulnerable to frustration and stress overload (overstimulation), smoked more cigarettes, spent fewer hours exercising, and rated their physical condition lower. The variables with the greatest discriminatory power to predict back injury were a sense of overload, muscle flexibility, proprioception, family history of back problems, difference in leg length, years of risk in nursing practice, and smoking.
The objective of this study was to estimate direct and indirect selection potential for length of productive life and lifetime prolificacy in Finnish Large White and Landrace swine populations. To study the direct selection potential, the heritabilities of these traits were estimated. The genetic correlations of length of productive life and lifetime prolificacy with prolificacy traits and overall leg conformation were estimated to evaluate whether selection for these traits could indirectly improve measures of sow longevity. In addition, correlations between length of productive life, lifetime prolificacy, ADG, and backfat thickness were estimated. Records were used from Finnish purebred Landrace (n = 26,744) and Large White (n = 24,007) sows born on operations that perform on-farm production tests on all females. Heritabilities were estimated using both a survival analysis procedure and a linear model. Due to computational limitations, correlations were estimated with the linear model only. Estimated length of productive life heritabilities obtained from linear model analyses were less (0.05 to 0.10) than those obtained from survival analyses (0.16 to 0.19). This may be indicative of the superiority of survival analysis compared with linear model analysis methods when evaluating longevity or similar types of data. All the prolificacy traits were genetically correlated with length of productive life and lifetime prolificacy, and the correlations were greater than 0.13. These results indicate that selection for increased number of piglets weaned in the first litter and for short first farrowing interval is beneficial for sow longevity and also for sow's lifetime prolificacy. The genetic correlations between length of productive life and leg conformation score also were favorable (0.32 in Landrace and 0.17 in Large White). The heritability estimates indicate that survival analysis is likely the most appropriate method of evaluating longevity traits in swine. Because of computational problems, simultaneous analysis of linear traits and longevity is not currently possible. More research is needed to develop methods for multiple linear and survival trait analyses.
OBJECTIVE: To explore the views of bereaved relatives about quality of survival after radiotherapy for malignant cerebral glioma. DESIGN: Semistructured interviews with the bereaved relatives of 56 previously studied patients with glioma. SETTING: Patients treated at six London hospitals from 1990 to 1992 surviving between one and 46 months (median, eight). SUBJECTS: Fifty six relatives (44 spouses, 12 others) seen four to six months after bereavement and 20 again at 13 months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Views about quality of life and satisfaction with radiotherapy. RESULTS: Relatives described quality of life as "good or acceptable" when patients carried on some normal activities or enjoyed social relationships. They described restricted and dependent states, constant deterioration, or loss of social interaction as giving "poor or unacceptable" quality of life. Length of time lived in such states also appeared important. Relatives' views of good or acceptable quality of life were independently related to low initial cognitive or personality change or low distress in the patient after diagnosis, and to their subsequent survival free from physical disability for at least one month. Satisfaction with radiotherapy was related to low initial distress, some degree of surgical resection, and overall length of survival longer than six months. CONCLUSIONS: Carefully exploring the views of bereaved relatives can bring a useful perspective to difficult treatment decisions. Their values support including disability and distress in quality of life measures, but cast doubt on the QALY-type approach of using full years of survival or time free from disability to judge whether treatments are worthwhile.
BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty about the impact of the programming hypothesis in terms of nutritional status at birth, rate of growth in the first year of life, length of gestation, breast feeding, and episodes of illness on asthma. An analysis was therefore carried out to test this hypothesis. METHODS: Data were collected on 1232 children born between 1974 and 1978 in a semi-rural area of Chile. Measurements at birth and growth in the first year of life were obtained from a birth registry and clinical notes. Information on asthma was collected using the European Community Respiratory Health Survey questionnaire. Sensitisation to eight allergens and bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) to methacholine were determined. All other information was obtained using a questionnaire. Polytomous logistic analyses were carried out to explore the association of factors at birth and during the first year of life with asthma symptoms, atopy, and BHR. RESULTS: Weight and length gain in the first year were positively associated with wheeze (odds ratio (OR) 1.004, 95% CI 1.001 to 1.007 and OR 1.11, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.25, respectively). A higher body mass index (BMI) at birth was protective in subjects reporting both wheeze and waking with breathlessness (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.84). Length rate in tertiles divided by length at birth in tertiles was related to asthma symptoms (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.19 to 2.37). Most other assessments were not associated with asthma. CONCLUSION: These results show promising but inconclusive evidence that a rapid rate of growth in length, especially in newborn infants of low length, might be involved in the aetiology of asthma.
We consider the estimation of life length of people who were born in the seventeenth or eighteenth century in England. The data consist of a sequence of times of life events that is either ended by a time of death or is right-censored by an unobserved time of migration. We propose a semi parametric model for the data and use a maximum likelihood method to estimate the unknown parameters in this model. We prove the consistency of the maximum likelihood estimators and describe an algorithm to obtain the estimates numerically. We have applied the algorithm to data and the estimates found are presented.
The F1 progeny of Culex tarsalis Coquillett females from the Coachella (CV) and San Joaquin (SJV) valleys collected during April 1991, and April, July, and October 1993 were reared and maintained as adults at 5 constant temperatures ranging from 14 to 38 degrees C. CV F1 progeny exhibited smaller body size, enhanced survival during spring, and higher autogeny rates than SJV F1 progeny; however, upper and lower thermal tolerance limits, immature developmental rates and survivorship, and adult life table parameters were relatively similar for both strains. Mosquitoes from both sites exhibited midsummer changes in immature developmental rates and survivorship, adult wing length, life expectancy at emergence, and generation time. These data indicated that temperature may select for both spatial and temporal changes in mosquito biology.
Economic realities of the continuing increased utilization of cardiac surgery in the 1990s have led to the practice of early tracheal extubation and shortening of the length of intensive care unit and hospital stays. In this era of cost-containment and physician report cards, we are held accountable for patients' outcome in terms of mortality, morbidity, quality of life, length of stay, and cost of care. This report outlines the factors that influence costs of cardiac surgery. These include patient risk, anesthesia, surgical, intensive care unit, and health care systems or hospital factors. The current literature on outcome, utilization, and cost implications of early tracheal extubation in cardiac surgery is summarized and discussed. It has been demonstrated that early extubation anesthesia is safe and cost-effective and can improve resource utilization in cardiac surgery, but to achieve a maximum cost benefit from fast-track or early extubation anesthesia in cardiac patients, team organization of a fast-track cardiac surgery program must be implemented. A perioperative clinical pathway management in fast-track cardiac surgery is presented.
Genetic parameters for length of productive life given the opportunity (LPL/O), measured as days between first calving and disposal conditioned on one of six opportunity groups, L1 through L6 (e.g., L2 is length of productive life in days given the opportunity to live 2 yr after first calving), and lifetime production (LP), measured as the number of calves born (NB), number of calves weaned (NW), and cumulative weaning weight (CW) by 6 yr after first calving, were estimated using records of 1,886 Hereford cows from a selection experiment with three selected lines and a control line. Weaning weights were adjusted to 200 d of age and for sex and age of dam. Estimates of heritability and genetic and environmental correlations were obtained by restricted maximum likelihood with bivariate animal models, with year of birth of cow as a fixed effect and direct genetic and residual as random effects. Genetic trends were estimated by regressing means of estimated breeding values by year of birth and line on birth year. Estimates of heritability (SE) for LPL/O ranged from 0.05 (0.01) to 0.15 (0.03). Estimates of genetic correlations (SE) among LPL/O ranged from 0.74 (0.14) to 1.00 (0.00), and estimates of environmental correlations ranged from 0.67 (0.05) to 0.98 (0.01). Estimates of heritability (SE) for NB, NW, and CW were 0.17 (0.05), 0.21 (0.06), and 0.18 (0.01). Estimates of genetic correlations (SE) among NB, NW, and CW ranged from 0.96 (0.02) to 0.99 (0.01). Estimates of environmental correlations (SE) ranged from 0.93 (0.01) to 0.99 (0.01). Estimates of genetic correlations for L6 with NB, NW, and CW were near 1.00 (0.09). Estimates of environmental correlations (SE) ranged from 0.57 (0.03) to 0.60 (0.03). Estimates of genetic change per year (SE) for L6 were low for all lines and ranged from -3.53 (2.09) to 4.63 (2.11) d/yr. Genetic trends for NB and NW were negligible for all lines. Genetic trends for CW were low and ranged from -2.81 (1.67) to 3.29 (1.76) kg/yr. Differences in genetic trends between selected lines and control were not significant (P > 0.05). Estimates of environmental trends (SE) over all lines were -104.00 (25.48) d/yr, -0.26 (0.02) calves/yr, -0.25 (0.02) calves/yr, and -55.10 (15.63) kg/yr, for L6, NB, NW, and CW, respectively. Selection for LPLIO or LP could be successful in a breeding program, but may be relatively slow due to the low magnitude of heritability and extended generation interval.
The process of neurite outgrowth is critically dependent on proper microtubule assembly. However, characterizing the dynamics of microtubule assembly and their quantitative relationship to neurite outgrowth is a difficult task. The difficulty can be reduced by using time series analysis which has broad application in characterizing the dynamics of stochastic, or "noisy," behaviors. Here we apply time series analysis to quantitatively compare simulated microtubule assembly and neurite outgrowth in vitro. Microtubule length life histories were simulated assuming constant growth and shrinkage rates coupled with random selection of growth and shrinkage times, a formulation based on the dynamic instability model of microtubule assembly. Net length displacements of simulated microtubules were calculated at discrete, evenly spaced times, and the resulting time series were characterized by both spectral and autocorrelation analysis. Depending on the sampling rate and the dynamic parameters, simulated microtubules exhibited significant autocorrelation and periodicity. To make a comparison to neurite outgrowth, we characterized the dynamic behavior of simulated microtubule populations and found it was not significantly different from that of single microtubules. The net displacements of rat superior cervical ganglion neurite tips were measured and characterized using time series methods. Their behavior was consistent with the microtubule dynamics for appropriate simulation parameters and sampling rates. Our results show that time series analysis can provide a useful tool for quantitative characterization of microtubule dynamics and neurite outgrowth and for assessing the relationship between them.
We present the characteristic features of 14 children with the recessive form of Robinow syndrome and the growth hormone (GH) response to provocation with clonidine and the serum insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) concentration in 12 of these children. The gonadotropin (luteinizing hormone [LH] and follicle-stimulating hormone [FSH]) response to gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) was evaluated in early pubertal and pubertal patients, and the testosterone response to human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG) was evaluated in males. Children with Robinow syndrome, born at full-term, were short at birth (length, 41.4+/-2.1 cm) and had markedly slow growth velocity (GV) during the first year (13.1+/-2.1 cm/yr); consequently, they were significantly short at the end of the first year of life (length, 54.4+/-2.9 cm). This intrauterine and early extrauterine growth delay reflected low growth potential. During childhood, the GV standard deviation score (GVSDS) remained low (-2.17+/-0.83). Despite the presence of empty sella in all of the patients, they had an adequate GH response to clonidine provocation (peak, 19.3+/-5.8 microg/L) and a normal serum IGF-I concentration (309+/-142 ng/mL) for their age. During childhood and early adolescence, boys with Robinow syndrome had low basal testosterone and a low testosterone response to HCG stimulation (3,000 IU/m2/d intramuscularly [IM] for 3 days). However, their basal and GnRH-stimulated FSH concentrations were normal. Two girls (Tanner II breast development) had a normal serum estradiol (E2) concentration but high LH and FSH responses to GnRH stimulation. This suggested either defective feedback of E2 on the hypothalamic-pituitary axis or hyporesponsiveness of the ovaries to gonadotropin. Four weeks of HCG therapy (2,500 IU/m2 IM twice weekly) in three boys with Robinow syndrome increased the penile length and testicular volume, denoting a significant Leydig cell response to prolonged HCG stimulation and the presence of functioning androgen receptors. It is suggested that HCG and/or testosterone therapy during infancy may improve the severe micropenis in these patients.
Data from a survey performed from 1986 to 1990 were analyzed to assess the effects of diseases on length of productive life of 3589 Holstein cows from 47 herds, using a proportional hazard model. The probability of a cow being culled, or hazard function, was supposed to be the product of an unspecified baseline hazard function and log-linear, time-dependent explanatory variables that possibly influence culling rate (Cox's regression). The effect of 16 health events was studied according to lactation number of occurrence. The model included adjustments for effects of herd-year-season (considered to be random), month of calving, stage of lactation, lactation number, reproductive performance, and milk production. The probability of a cow being culled increased in early and late stages of lactation in older cows, in low producing cows, and in cows with poor reproductive performance. Mastitis before the peak of lactation or during the dry period increased the risk (relative culling rate in first lactation, 1.3 and 4.0, respectively). Teat injuries and nontraumatic udder disorders had a large impact on longevity. Cows with late metritis or early abortion had poor survival. The decrease in median length of productive life could be over a standard lactation in particular cases. Expected survivor curves, computed after assumption of a priori values of covariates and their evolution over time, appear to be powerful tools for examining the effect of health disorders on length of productive life of cows.
A total of 100,000 records of Holstein dairy cows in Hokkaido, Japan, were used to study the current characteristics of their length of productive life, to build up a suitable model for genetic survival analysis, and to apply the piecewise Weibull baseline model. The data for this analysis only included records of cows belonging to herds in which more than 60% of cows had type score. Compared with other studies, the proportions of cows with only 1 or 2 calvings were low (24 and 46%, respectively), indicating a very low culling rate in first or second parity in Hokkaido. The median length of productive life was about 1,250 d (3 yr and 5 mo). Four different definitions of stages of lactation were studied. The best fit of the data was obtained when stages of lactation were chosen with cutpoints at 0, 60, 250, and 350 d after calving. Whatever the definition of stages of lactation, the piecewise Weibull baseline model was better than a unique baseline model. The estimated shape Weibull parameters rho for the different parity x stage of lactation combinations varied greatly (1.0 to 5.0). The estimated hazard functions based on the piecewise Weibull baseline model were smooth and reflected the important changes in observed hazard within lactation. The results of this study are expected to contribute to the development of a genetic model for sire evaluation and to genetic improvement of length of productive life of Holstein cattle in Hokkaido, Japan.