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[[Mortality estimation using proportional mortality indicators for developing countries]].

The author extends a technique for the indirect estimation of mortality originally developed by Courbage and Fargues. The technique is applied to national data from 35 developing countries for the year 1975. "Nine families of model life tables constructed by Coale and Demeny and the United Nations were applied to each of the object populations, and the level of mortality corresponding to the value of PMI (proportional mortality indicator: percentage of deaths at the ages 50 years and over) obtained from death registration data, was determined for each family." The author notes that the technique does not require assumptions regarding features of the population in question and is applicable to a non-stable population or an open population without any adjustment. (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Demography↗

Indirect estimation of infant mortality trends: simulation tests on the Feeney method.

The methods developed by Griffith Feeney for the indirect estimation of infant mortality are reviewed and tested using simulated data. It is concluded that the proposed method provides excellent results if all the specified conditions are satisfied. "The 'short-cut' method usually applied is appropriate only when the age-pattern of mortality is of (or close to) the Brass type. The more general method involving the solution of a complex equation will otherwise have to be used." By "simulating ideal situations where the method should otherwise work, the article shows the type and level of error that results when the age-pattern of mortality does not correspond to that of the model. The non-respect of other assumptions means a risk of further error but the crucial assumption is that which concerns mortality." (summary in FRE, ITA)

Age Factors↗

[[Development of new relational models for the age pattern of mortality]].

After a discussion of the Brass logit model of age-specific mortality, the author proposes five new relational models of the age pattern of mortality. These models and related mathematical extensions of the conventional logit model are assessed as to "their applicability as model life table systems and projection tools of age patterns of mortality in time series. The results indicate that [the] relational models serve as useful demographic tools for estimation and projection besides [their] original use in analytical studies of aging and mortality processes." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Age Factors↗

Mortality differentials in France during the late 18th and early 19th centuries.

"The very high quality of a set of marriage records for Paris during the 1860s made it possible to apply indirect methods to estimate adult mortality differentials by certain geographical and social criteria of the 19th century. The largest differences between groups were observed to be social, geographical origin apparently having little impact.... It is interesting that social differences in adult mortality are similar in magnitude to those observed today. Perhaps the principal factor of differentiation is then the level of child mortality.... It is by no means necessary to have a set of data as complete as ours. The indirect methods we have used proved largely adequate for estimating mortality differentials."

Demography↗

Estimates of net migration by age at migration from pairs of enumerations of the foreign born: United States, 1880-1930.

"This paper describes a new method for indirectly estimating age schedules of net migration. The method is illustrated with historical data for the United States. The analysis employs a recently developed technique--iterative intracohort interpolation--to estimate age schedules of net migration from pairs of enumerations of the foreign born by age. The data required for this application are enumerations of the foreign born (or more generally of those born outside the enumeration area) by age in two successive censuses, a life table presumed to reflect the mortality experience of the foreign born during the intercensal period, and, optionally, data on variations in the overall level of migration during the intercensal period. The procedure provides estimates of the average annual number of foreign born net migrants during a decade by their age at the time of entry/exit." (SUMMARY IN ITA AND FRE)

Age Distribution↗

Estimating maternal mortality in Djibouti: an application of the sisterhood method.

In many developing countries even crude estimates of the level of maternal mortality are lacking and the prospects of fulfilling this need using conventional sources of vital registration and health service statistics are not encouraging. The constraint this imposes on the effective planning, management and evaluation of the programmes now being launched to reduce these neglected deaths is self-evident. It is less obvious how the majority of developing countries can be expected to meet the call for reliable estimates of maternal mortality by 1995. The sisterhood method provides a means of obtaining population-based estimates using household surveys for data collection. This paper describes the application of the method in Djibouti in the context of a rapid multi-purpose household survey in difficult field circumstances. In recent years the reduction of the level of maternal mortality in developing countries has become a priority for both national governments and international agencies. Attention has been drawn to the wide range of levels within and between countries and to the huge discrepancies in the lifetime risk of maternal death for women in the developed compared with the developing world. This risk has been estimated to range from 1 in 19 in West Africa to almost 1 in 10,000 in Northern Europe.

Adolescent↗

Estimates of the British Jewish population 1984-88.

"During the 20th century, estimates of the British Jewish population have been obtained by applying appropriate death-rates to communal mortality data. This death-rate method has become increasingly sophisticated with respect to the death-rates used. The exercise reported here covers more than 22,000 deaths recorded in the community over the 5-year period [1984-88].... An estimate of 308,000 is suggested for the community, in which deaths-related data are augmented by information about births within the community."

Birth Rate↗

Estimated number of leprosy cases in the world.

Planning for disease control requires estimates of the number of leprosy patients from local to global levels. From the mid-sixties to the mid-eighties, global estimates appeared to be constant at between 10 and 12 million. The introduction of multidrug therapy (MDT) in many countries and the consequent reduction of prevalence of the disease has necessitated a reassessment of the global estimate. Based on available information and its interpretation, the number of leprosy cases in the world in 1991 has been estimated at 5.5 million. The number of individuals with deformities due to leprosy, including persons now cured of the disease, has been estimated at between 2 and 3 million.

Epidemiologic Methods↗

Infant and child mortality levels and trends in Bangladesh.

Infant and child mortality levels and trends in Bangladesh are examined using data from the 1989 Bangladesh Fertility Survey. Both infant and child mortality declined from the mid 1970s but infant mortality declined more quickly. The level of infant mortality in 1989 was around 100 per 1000 live births while child mortality (5q0) was 200 per 1000 live births. Life table analysis confirms the change in infant and child mortality. The decline in infant mortality is attributed to the introduction of improved public health measures and access to maternal and child health services.

Adolescent↗

Adult mortality and proportions orphaned in Austria in 1991.

"At the Austrian micro-census taken in June 1991, a question was inserted on survival of parents and grandparents (on both sides), with the object of investigating family networks.... By comparing the census information on survival of parents and the corresponding direct measures of mortality, we have an opportunity to assess the validity of techniques which are commonly used in countries with defective vital registration. We shall consider here female adult mortality and proportions of persons whose mothers have died (maternal orphanhood).... This method, which hinges on the reporting of a single event that is no doubt remembered well, proves a good substitute for direct mortality measures, despite a slight underestimation. It describes the performance of cohorts, some of which are relatively old, but the results can be translated into the recent period."

Adolescent↗