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PubMed1994

Safety implications of bicycle paths at signalized intersections.

This paper presents a quantitative meta-analysis of studies evaluating, by means of the Bayesian method, the safety effectiveness of different bicycle facilities at road junctions. This is preceded by a discussion of background theories and an up-to-date presentation of today's knowledge of the cyclist's safety at intersections; alternative layouts in Scandinavia, and Sweden in particular, are shown. The project consists of a literature survey as well as interviews with experts and cyclists, and an attempt to weave together these different sources in estimating the effect of a particular layout. In summary, few studies from the Scandinavian countries exist that have treated this area with an acceptable methodology. Combined results, with the Bayesian technique, are therefore presented for only one layout comparison: accident risks for cyclists at signalized intersections with and without a cycle path. The results of this aggregation may be unreliable as well, due to deficiencies in the studies. New field studies should be initiated. The "experts'" prior opinion was that the introduction of the cycle path would, on average, increase the risk by about 20%, while interviewed cyclists considered that a cycle path would decrease the risk by about 20%. The conclusion that can be drawn so far from combining results shows that the most likely effect of introducing a cycle path is that the risk will increase by about 40% for a passing cyclist. The probability that the effect will be the opposite, i.e. that the risk will decrease, is very small (about 2%). These combined results are based primarily on cross-section studies, where the layouts have not been "randomly allotted". It is therefore likely that the risk increase may have been overestimated. The probability that the "real" effect is accident reduction is therefore somewhat greater than 2%. How much greater cannot be estimated from these studies.

Accidents, Traffic↗

PubMed2006

Dating dispersal and radiation in the gymnosperm Gnetum (Gnetales)--clock calibration when outgroup relationships are uncertain.

Most implementations of molecular clocks require resolved topologies. However, one of the Bayesian relaxed clock approaches accepts input topologies that include polytomies. We explored the effects of resolved and polytomous input topologies in a rate-heterogeneous sequence data set for Gnetum, a member of the seed plant lineage Gnetales. Gnetum has 10 species in South America, 1 in tropical West Africa, and 20 to 25 in tropical Asia, and explanations for the ages of these disjunctions involve long-distance dispersal and/or the breakup of Gondwana. To resolve relationships within Gnetum, we sequenced most of its species for six loci from the chloroplast (rbcL, matK, and the trnT-trnF region), the nucleus (rITS/5.8S and the LEAFY gene second intron), and the mitochondrion (nad1 gene second intron). Because Gnetum has no fossil record, we relied on fossils from other Gnetales and from the seed plant lineages conifers, Ginkgo, cycads, and angiosperms to constrain a molecular clock and obtain absolute times for within-Gnetum divergence events. Relationships among Gnetales and the other seed plant lineages are still unresolved, and we therefore used differently resolved topologies, including one that contained a basal polytomy among gymnosperms. For a small set of Gnetales exemplars (n = 13) in which rbcL and matK satisfied the clock assumption, we also obtained time estimates from a strict clock, calibrated with one outgroup fossil. The changing hierarchical relationships among seed plants (and accordingly changing placements of distant fossils) resulted in small changes of within-Gnetum estimates because topologically closest constraints overrode more distant constraints. Regardless of the seed plant topology assumed, relaxed clock estimates suggest that the extant clades of Gnetum began diverging from each other during the Upper Oligocene. Strict clock estimates imply a mid-Miocene divergence. These estimates, together with the phylogeny for Gnetum from the six combined data sets, imply that the single African species of Gnetum is not a remnant of a once Gondwanan distribution. Miocene and Pliocene range expansions are inferred for the Asian subclades of Gnetum, which stem from an ancestor that arrived from Africa. These findings fit with seed dispersal by water in several species of Gnetum, morphological similarities among apparently young species, and incomplete concerted evolution in the nuclear ITS region.

Base Sequence↗

PubMed2024

Expansion of Oropouche virus in non-endemic Brazilian regions: analysis of genomic characterisation and ecological drivers.

BACKGROUND: Oropouche virus (OROV) is an arbovirus endemic in the Amazon region that closely resembles other arboviruses in terms of human disease, leading to potential misdiagnoses. The virus ecology has mostly restricted its occurrence to the Amazon biome; however, after a large 2023-24 OROV epidemic in the Brazilian Amazon region, outbreaks are being reported across Brazil and in other countries in Latin America. Here, we investigate the OROV spread outside Amazonia. METHODS: In this genomic and epidemiological study, OROV cases from January, 2023, to July, 2024, provided by the General Coordination of Public Health Laboratories of Brazil on Aug 1, 2024, were compared by geographical location (Amazon vs non-Amazon) and municipal population size, and a linear mixed model was employed to assess the relationship between agricultural area size and cases. OROV-positive samples from central laboratories of five non-Amazonian Brazilian states were sequenced using an amplicon-based approach. Bayesian phylogeographical analysis was performed with near full-length viral genomes, incorporating individual travel histories when relevant. The estimated dates of viral introductions in each sampled location were then contextualised with public epidemiological data. FINDINGS: Epidemic data show that outside the Amazon region, OROV cases frequency was 3·9-times higher in small municipalities than in large municipalities. The planted areas of some agricultural products, such as banana plantations, were positively correlated (r=0·39, p<0·0001) with OROV cases. The linear mixed model revealed that, besides banana, cassava also has larger (p<0·05) planted areas in municipalities with OROV cases when compared with those with no cases. The phylogenetic analysis of 32 new OROV genomes reconstructed multiple exportation events of the newly identified reassortant lineage from the Amazon to other Brazilian regions between January and March, 2024. At least three of the previously described OROV phylogenetic clades circulating in the Amazon were the source of viral introductions. Molecular clock analysis estimated that viral introductions happened from 50 days to 100 days before detecting the outbreaks in each state. INTERPRETATION: Our results confirm that the novel OROV reassortant lineage spread from the Amazon to other regions in early 2024, successfully establishing local transmission. The fact that outbreaks were observed in small municipalities, instead of large urban centres, suggests that local ecological conditions that are ideal for OROV vector occurrence, such as the banana plantation environment, might be important factors driving its spread in Brazil. FUNDING: DECIT, CNPq, FAPEAM, and Inova-Fiocruz. TRANSLATION: For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Brazil↗

PubMed2026

On the origin of animals and placental mammals: a critique of literalist readings of the fossil record.

The fossil record is incomplete, as evidenced by the pervasive presence of ghost lineages throughout the Tree of Life. For example, across placental mammals, at least 720 Myr of basal lineages are ghost lineages, that is, lineages that have left no fossil evidence of their past history. In contrast, some studies have suggested that the fossil record is a faithful temporal archive of evolutionary history and thus the times of diversification of clades must be close to the ages of their oldest fossils. Such literalist interpretations have been contradicted by analysis of molecular datasets which, in many cases, indicate that groups including placental mammals and animals may have originated at times substantially older than their fossil records. Some of those studies have further argued that, in the case of animals and placental mammals, molecular clocks are uninformative, suffer from characteristic pathologies, and thus cannot distinguish between recent and ancient hypotheses of diversification. Here, we reexamine these two cases and show, using Bayesian model selection theory, that the explosive diversification models previously proposed for animals and placental mammals have a posterior probability of ∼0. We show the characteristic pathologies purportedly discovered do not exist, highlight errors in previous analyses, and provide advice on best practice for molecular-clock dating analysis.

Animals↗

PubMed1996

Predicting solvent accessibility: higher accuracy using Bayesian statistics and optimized residue substitution classes.

We introduce a novel Bayesian probabilistic method for predicting the solvent accessibilities of amino acid residues in globular proteins. Using single sequence data, this method achieves prediction accuracies higher than previously published methods. Substantially improved predictions-comparable to the highest accuracies reported in the literature to date-are obtained by representing alignments of the example proteins and their homologs as strings of residue substitution classes, depending on the side chain types observed at each alignment position. These results demonstrate the applicability of this relatively simple Bayesian approach to structure prediction and illustrate the utility of the classification methodology previously developed to extract information from aligned sets of structurally related proteins.

Amino Acid Sequence↗

PubMed2004

Phylogenetic investigations of Antarctic notothenioid fishes (Perciformes: Notothenioidei) using complete gene sequences of the mitochondrial encoded 16S rRNA.

The Notothenioidei dominates the fish fauna of the Antarctic in both biomass and diversity. This clade exhibits adaptations related to metabolic function and freezing avoidance in the subzero Antarctic waters, and is characterized by a high degree of morphological and ecological diversity. Investigating the macroevolutionary processes that may have contributed to the radiation of notothenioid fishes requires a well-resolved phylogenetic hypothesis. To date published molecular and morphological hypotheses of notothenioids are largely congruent, however, there are some areas of significant disagreement regarding higher-level relationships. Also, there are critical areas of the notothenioid phylogeny that are unresolved in both molecular and morphological phylogenetic analyses. Previous molecular phylogenetic analyses of notothenioids using partial mtDNA 12S and 16S rRNA sequence data have resulted in limited phylogenetic resolution and relatively low node support. One particularly controversial result from these analyses is the paraphyly of the Nototheniidae, the most diverse family in the Notothenioidei. It is unclear if the phylogenetic results from the 12S and 16S partial gene sequence dataset are due to limited character sampling, or if they reflect patterns of evolutionary diversification in notothenioids. We sequenced the complete mtDNA 16S rRNA gene for 43 notothenioid species, the largest sampling to-date from all eight taxonomically recognized families. Phylogenetic analyses using both maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood resulted in well-resolved trees with most nodes supported with high bootstrap pseudoreplicate scores and significant Bayesian posterior probabilities. In all analyses the Nototheniidae was monophyletic. Shimodaira-Hasegawa tests were able to reject two hypotheses that resulted from prior morphological analyses. However, despite substantial resolution and node support in the 16S rRNA trees, several phylogenetic hypotheses among closely related species and clades were not rejected. The inability to reject particular hypotheses among species in apical clades is likely due to the lower rate of nucleotide substitution in mtDNA rRNA genes relative to protein coding regions. Nevertheless, with the most extensive notothenioid taxon sampling to date, and the much greater phylogenetic resolution offered by the complete 16S rRNA sequences over the commonly used partial 12S and 16S gene dataset, it would be advantageous for future molecular investigations of notothenioid phylogenetics to utilize at the minimum the complete gene 16S rRNA dataset.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Multiple gene evidence for expansion of extant penguins out of Antarctica due to global cooling.

Classic problems in historical biogeography are where did penguins originate, and why are such mobile birds restricted to the Southern Hemisphere? Competing hypotheses posit they arose in tropical-warm temperate waters, species-diverse cool temperate regions, or in Gondwanaland approximately 100 mya when it was further north. To test these hypotheses we constructed a strongly supported phylogeny of extant penguins from 5851 bp of mitochondrial and nuclear DNA. Using Bayesian inference of ancestral areas we show that an Antarctic origin of extant taxa is highly likely, and that more derived taxa occur in lower latitudes. Molecular dating estimated penguins originated about 71 million years ago in Gondwanaland when it was further south and cooler. Moreover, extant taxa are inferred to have originated in the Eocene, coincident with the extinction of the larger-bodied fossil taxa as global climate cooled. We hypothesize that, as Antarctica became ice-encrusted, modern penguins expanded via the circumpolar current to oceanic islands within the Antarctic Convergence, and later to the southern continents. Thus, global cooling has had a major impact on penguin evolution, as it has on vertebrates generally. Penguins only reached cooler tropical waters in the Galapagos about 4 mya, and have not crossed the equatorial thermal barrier.

Animal Migration↗

PubMed2006

Spatial patterns of genetic diversity across European subspecies of the mountain hare, Lepus timidus L.

Fossil evidence shows that populations of species that currently inhabit arctic and boreal regions were not isolated in refugia during glacial periods, but instead maintained populations across large areas of central Europe. These species commonly display little reduction in genetic diversity in northern areas of their range, in contrast to many temperate species. The mountain hare currently inhabits both temperate and arctic-boreal regions. We used nuclear microsatellite and mtDNA sequence data to examine population structure and alternate phylogeographic hypotheses for the mountain hare, that is, temperate type (lower genetic diversity in northern areas) and arctic-boreal type (high northern genetic diversity). Both data sets revealed concordant patterns. Highest allelic richness, expected heterozygosity and mtDNA haplotype diversity were identified in the most northerly subspecies, indicating that this species more closely maps to phylogeographic patterns observed in arctic-boreal rather than temperate species. With regard to population structure, the Alpine and Fennoscandian subspecies were most genetically similar (F(ST) approximately 0.1). These subspecies also clustered together on the mtDNA tree and were assigned with highest likelihood to a common Bayesian cluster. This is consistent with fossil evidence for intermediate populations in the central European plain, persisting well into the postglacial period. In contrast, the geographically close Scottish and Irish populations occupied separate Bayesian clusters, distinct clades on the mtDNA maximum likelihood tree and were genetically divergent from each other (F(ST) > 0.4) indicating the influence of genetic drift, long isolation (possibly dating from the late glacial era) and/or separate postglacial colonisation routes.

Animals↗

PubMed2007

Mitogenetic structure of brown bears (Ursus arctos L.) in northeastern Europe and a new time frame for the formation of European brown bear lineages.

We estimated the phylogenetic relationships of brown bear maternal haplotypes from countries of northeastern Europe (Estonia, Finland and European Russia), using sequences of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region of 231 bears. Twenty-five mtDNA haplotypes were identified. The brown bear population in northeastern Europe can be divided into three haplogroups: one with bears from all three countries, one with bears from Finland and Russia, and the third composed almost exclusively of bears from European Russia. Four haplotypes from Finland and European Russia matched exactly with haplotypes from Slovakia, suggesting the significance of the current territory of Slovakia in ancient demographic processes of brown bears. Based on the results of this study and those from the recent literature, we hypothesize that the West Carpathian Mountains have served either as one of the northernmost refuge areas or as an important movement corridor for brown bears of the Eastern lineage towards northern Europe during or after the last ice age. Bayesian analyses were performed to investigate the temporal framework of brown bear lineages in Europe. The molecular clock was calibrated using Beringian brown bear sequences derived from radiocarbon-dated ancient samples, and the estimated mutation rate was 29.8% (13.3%-47.6%) per million years. The whole European population and Western and Eastern lineages formed about 175,000, 70,000 and 25,000 years before present, respectively. Our approach to estimating the time frame of brown bear evolution demonstrates the importance of using an appropriate mutation rate, and this has implications for other studies of Pleistocene populations.

Animals↗

PubMed1997

[Identification of major gene and polygene mixed inheritance model and estimation of genetic parameters of a quantitative trait from F2 progeny].

It has been proved by many field experiments and QTL mapping results that among genes affecting some quantitative traits there are some major genes with larger genetic effect and some polygenes with smaller genetic effect. For such traits, the distribution of segregating population demonstrates multimodality, and this is the characteristic of the mixture of more than one distributions. Mixture distribution models have been used extensively as models in a wide variety of practical situations where data can be viewed as arising from two or more populations mixed in certain proportions. Akaike's Information Criterion(AIC) has been used to identify the existence of major genes affecting quantitative traits. Under the existence of major genes, the genetic effects of these genes and their genetic variance were estimated through segregation analysis. The genotype of major gene of F2 individuals of were determined by clustering using Bayesian criterion. With P1, P2, F1 and F2 populations, the likelihood ratio test was used to test the existence of polygenes. In the end, the inheritance of soybean flowering date is analyzed. One major gene was found in F2 population derived from Guludou x Shanghaihongmangzao.

Models, Genetic↗

PubMed2005

The age of the angiosperms: a molecular timescale without a clock.

The age of the angiosperms has long been of interest to botanists and evolutionary biologists. Many early efforts to date the age of the angiosperms and evolutionary divergences within the angiosperm clade using a molecular clock have yielded age estimates that are grossly inconsistent with the fossil record. We investigated the age of angiosperms using Bayesian relaxed clock (BRC) and penalized likelihood (PL) approaches. Both of these methods allow the incorporation of multiple fossil constraints into the optimization procedure. The BRC method allows a range of values for among-lineage rate of substitution, from a nearly clocklike behavior to a condition in which each branch is allowed an optimal substitution rate, and also accounts for variation in molecular evolution across multiple genes. A topology derived from an analysis of genes from all three plant genomes for 71 taxa was used as a backbone. The effects on age estimates of different genes, single-gene versus concatenated datasets, and the inclusion and assumptions of fossils as age constraints were examined. In addition, the influence of prior distributions on estimates of divergence times was also explored. These results indicate that widely divergent age estimates can result from the different methods (198-139 million years ago), different sources of data (275-122 million years ago), and the inclusion of temporal constraints to topologies. Most dates, however, are between 180-140 million years ago, suggesting a Middle Jurassic-Early Cretaceous origin of flowering plants, predating the oldest unequivocal fossil angiosperms by about 45-5 million years. Nonetheless, these dates are consistent with other recent studies that have used methods that relax the assumption of a strict molecular clock and also agree with the hypothesis that the angiosperms may be somewhat older than the fossil record indicates.

Bayes Theorem↗

PubMed2004

Multiple Miocene Melastomataceae dispersal between Madagascar, Africa and India.

Melastomataceae sensu stricto (excluding Memecylaceae) comprise some 3000 species in the neotropics, 1000 in Asia, 240 in Africa, and 230 in Madagascar. Previous family-wide morphological and DNA analyses have shown that the Madagascan species belong to at least three unrelated lineages, which were hypothesized to have arrived by trans-oceanic dispersal. An alternative hypothesis posits that the ancestors of Madagascan, as well as Indian, Melastomataceae arrived from Africa in the Late Cretaceous. This study tests these hypotheses in a Bayesian framework, using three combined sequence datasets analysed under a relaxed clock and simultaneously calibrated with fossils, some not previously used. The new fossil calibration comes from a re-dated possibly Middle or Upper Eocene Brazilian fossil of Melastomeae. Tectonic events were also tentatively used as constraints because of concerns that some of the family's fossils are difficult to assign to nodes in the phylogeny. Regardless of how the data were calibrated, the estimated divergence times of Madagascan and Indian lineages were too young for Cretaceous explanations to hold. This was true even of the oldest ages within the 95% credibility interval around each estimate. Madagascar's Melastomeae appear to have arrived from Africa during the Miocene. Medinilla, with some 70 species in Madagascar and two in Africa, too, arrived during the Miocene, but from Asia. Gravesia, with 100 species in Madagascar and four in east and west Africa, also appears to date to the Miocene, but its monophyly has not been tested. The study afforded an opportunity to compare divergence time estimates obtained earlier with strict clocks and single calibrations, with estimates based on relaxed clocks and different multiple calibrations and taxon sampling.

Africa↗

PubMed2006

Arrival and diversification of caviomorph rodents and platyrrhine primates in South America.

Platyrrhine primates and caviomorph rodents are clades of mammals that colonized South America during its period of isolation from the other continents, between 100 and 3 million years ago (Mya). Until now, no molecular study investigated the timing of the South American colonization by these two lineages with the same molecular data set. Using sequences from three nuclear genes (ADRA2B, vWF, and IRBP, both separate and combined) from 60 species, and eight fossil calibration constraints, we estimated the times of origin and diversification of platyrrhines and caviomorphs via a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock approach. To account for the possible effect of an accelerated rate of evolution of the IRBP gene along the branch leading to the anthropoids, we performed the datings with and without IRBP (3768 sites and 2469 sites, respectively). The time window for the colonization of South America by primates and by rodents is demarcated by the dates of origin (upper bound) and radiation (lower bound) of platyrrhines and caviomorphs. According to this approach, platyrrhine primates colonized South America between 37.0 +/- 3.0 Mya (or 38.9 +/- 4.0 Mya without IRBP) and 16.8 +/- 2.3 (or 20.1 +/- 3.3) Mya, and caviomorph rodents between 45.4 +/- 4.1 (or 43.7 +/- 4.8) Mya and 36.7 +/- 3.7 (or 35.8 +/- 4.3) Mya. Considering both the fossil record and these molecular datings, the favored scenarios are a trans-Atlantic migration of primates from Africa at the end of the Eocene or beginning of the Oligocene, and a colonization of South America by rodents during the Middle or Late Eocene. Based on our nuclear DNA data, we cannot rule out the possibility of a concomitant arrival of primates and rodents in South America. The caviomorphs radiated soon after their arrival, before the Oligocene glaciations, and these early caviomorph lineages persisted until the present. By contrast, few platyrrhine fossils are known in the Oligocene, and the present-day taxa are the result of a quite recent, Early Miocene diversification.

Animal Migration↗

PubMed2005

Accuracy of rate estimation using relaxed-clock models with a critical focus on the early metazoan radiation.

In recent years, a number of phylogenetic methods have been developed for estimating molecular rates and divergence dates under models that relax the molecular clock constraint by allowing rate change throughout the tree. These methods are being used with increasing frequency, but there have been few studies into their accuracy. We tested the accuracy of several relaxed-clock methods (penalized likelihood and Bayesian inference using various models of rate change) using nucleotide sequences simulated on a nine-taxon tree. When the sequences evolved with a constant rate, the methods were able to infer rates accurately, but estimates were more precise when a molecular clock was assumed. When the sequences evolved under a model of auto-correlated rate change, rates were accurately estimated using penalized likelihood and by Bayesian inference using lognormal and exponential models of rate change, while other models did not perform as well. When the sequences evolved under a model of uncorrelated rate change, only Bayesian inference using an exponential rate model performed well. Collectively, the results provide a strong recommendation for using the exponential model of rate change if a conservative approach to divergence time estimation is required. A case study is presented in which we use a simulation-based approach to examine the hypothesis of elevated rates in the Cambrian period, and it is found that these high rate estimates might be an artifact of the rate estimation method. If this bias is present, then the ages of metazoan divergences would be systematically underestimated. The results of this study have implications for studies of molecular rates and divergence dates.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2006

Analysis of the overdispersed clock in the short-term evolution of hepatitis C virus: Using the E1/E2 gene sequences to infer infection dates in a single source outbreak.

The assumption of a molecular clock for dating events from sequence information is often frustrated by the presence of heterogeneity among evolutionary rates due, among other factors, to positively selected sites. In this work, our goal is to explore methods to estimate infection dates from sequence analysis. One such method, based on site stripping for clock detection, was proposed to unravel the clocklike molecular evolution in sequences showing high variability of evolutionary rates and in the presence of positive selection. Other alternatives imply accommodating heterogeneity in evolutionary rates at various levels, without eliminating any information from the data. Here we present the analysis of a data set of hepatitis C virus (HCV) sequences from 24 patients infected by a single individual with known dates of infection. We first used a simple criterion of relative substitution rate for site removal prior to a regression analysis. Time was regressed on maximum likelihood pairwise evolutionary distances between the sequences sampled from the source individual and infected patients. We show that it is indeed the fastest evolving sites that disturb the molecular clock and that these sites correspond to positively selected codons. The high computational efficiency of the regression analysis allowed us to compare the site-stripping scheme with random removal of sites. We demonstrate that removing the fast-evolving sites significantly increases the accuracy of estimation of infection times based on a single substitution rate. However, the time-of-infection estimations improved substantially when a more sophisticated and computationally demanding Bayesian method was used. This method was used with the same data set but keeping all the sequence positions in the analysis. Consequently, despite the distortion introduced by positive selection on evolutionary rates, it is possible to obtain quite accurate estimates of infection dates, a result of especial relevance for molecular epidemiology studies.

Bayes Theorem↗

PubMed2004

A bayesian analysis of metazoan mitochondrial genome arrangements.

Genome arrangements are a potentially powerful source of information to infer evolutionary relationships among distantly related taxa. Mitochondrial genome arrangements may be especially informative about metazoan evolutionary relationships because (1) nearly all animals have the same set of definitively homologous mitochondrial genes, (2) mitochondrial genome rearrangement events are rare relative to changes in sequences, and (3) the number of possible mitochondrial genome arrangements is huge, making convergent evolution of genome arrangements appear highly unlikely. In previous studies, phylogenetic evidence in genome arrangement data is nearly always used in a qualitative fashion-the support in favor of clades with similar or identical genome arrangements is considered to be quite strong, but is not quantified. The purpose of this article is to quantify the uncertainty among the relationships of metazoan phyla on the basis of mitochondrial genome arrangements while incorporating prior knowledge of the monophyly of various groups from other sources. The work we present here differs from our previous work in the statistics literature in that (1) we incorporate prior information on classifications of metazoans at the phylum level, (2) we describe several advances in our computational approach, and (3) we analyze a much larger data set (87 taxa) that consists of each unique, complete mitochondrial genome arrangement with a full complement of 37 genes that were present in the NCBI (National Center for Biotechnology Information) database at a recent date. In addition, we analyze a subset of 28 of these 87 taxa for which the non-tRNA mitochondrial genomes are unique where the assumption of our inversion-only model of rearrangement is more plausible. We present summaries of Bayesian posterior distributions of tree topology on the basis of these two data sets.

Animals↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling: why?

At present, pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) modeling has emerged as a major tool in clinical pharmacology to optimize drug use by designing rational dosage forms and dosage regimes. Quantitative representation of the dose-concentration-response relationship should provide information for prediction of the level of response to a certain level of drug dose. Several mathematical approaches can be used to describe such relationships, depending on the single dose or the steady-state measurements carried out. With concentration and response data on-phase, basic models such as fixed-effect, linear, log-linear, E(MAX), and sigmoid E(MAX) can be sufficient. However, time-variant pharmacodynamic models (effect compartment, acute tolerance, sensitization, and indirect responses) can be required when kinetics and response are out-of-phase. To date, methodologies available for PK-PD analysis barely suppose the use of powerful computing resources. Some of these algorithms are able to generate individual estimates of parameters based on population analysis and Bayesian forecasting. Notwithstanding, attention must be paid to avoid overinterpreted data from mathematical models, so that reliability and clinical significance of estimated parameters will be valuable when underlying physiologic processes (disease, age, gender, etc.) are considered.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2004

A Bayesian MCMC approach to study transmission of influenza: application to household longitudinal data.

We propose a transmission model to estimate the main characteristics of influenza transmission in households. The model details the risks of infection in the household and in the community at the individual scale. Heterogeneity among subjects is investigated considering both individual susceptibility and infectiousness. The model was applied to a data set consisting of the follow-up of influenza symptoms in 334 households during 15 days after an index case visited a general practitioner with virologically confirmed influenza. Estimating the parameters of the transmission model was challenging because a large part of the infectious process was not observed: only the dates when new cases were detected were observed. For each case, the data were augmented with the unobserved dates of the start and the end of the infectious period. The transmission model was included in a 3-levels hierarchical structure: (i) the observation level ensured that the augmented data were consistent with the observed data, (ii) the transmission level described the underlying epidemic process, (iii) the prior level specified the distribution of the parameters. From a Bayesian perspective, the joint posterior distribution of model parameters and augmented data was explored by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. The mean duration of influenza infectious period was estimated at 3.8 days (95 per cent credible interval, 95 per cent CI [3.1,4.6]) with a standard deviation of 2.0 days (95 per cent CI [1.1,2.8]). The instantaneous risk of influenza transmission between an infective and a susceptible within a household was found to decrease with the size of the household, and established at 0.32 person day(-1) (95 per cent CI [0.26,0.39]); the instantaneous risk of infection from the community was 0.0056 day(-1) (95 per cent CI [0.0029,0.0087]). Focusing on the differences in transmission between children (less than 15 years old) and adults, we estimated that the former were more likely to transmit than adults (posterior probability larger than 99 per cent), but that the mean duration of the infectious period was similar in children (3.6 days, 95 per cent CI [2.3,5.2]) and adults (3.9 days, 95 per cent CI [3.2,4.9]). The posterior probability that children had a larger community risk was 76 per cent and the posterior probability that they were more susceptible than adults was 79 per cent.

Adolescent↗