[THE HYDROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE PROVINCE OF LATINA].
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Data collected from four beaches along southern Lake Michigan (USA) during the summer of 2004 were subjected to correlation and time-series regression analyses aimed at identifying an optimal suite of variables that could be used to predict log Escherichia coli concentrations in real time. Although other variables entered into the regression equations, waves, outfalls of bacteria from an adjacent stream, sunshine, temperature, and time of day (morning versus afternoon) turned out to be the most useful and consistent predictive variables. A post-hoc analysis showed that regression models are much more successful than previous day's bacterial concentration at predicting whether or not the beach water quality is above or below the threshold criteria for full body contact established by the USEPA. Additional analyses, using 99% confidence intervals on predicted logE. coli concentrations, indicated that in extreme cases of high or low health threat, model predictions are likely to be accurate about 90% of the time. The findings of this study are consistent with previous work in the region and seem to indicate that real-time monitoring of hydrometeorological variables can provide the basis of an early warning system for protecting the public from the health risk posed by harmful pathogens in beach water.
The link between swimming and bathing behaviour, and molluscum contagiosum (MC), in a sample of 198 patients with clinically confirmed MC was investigated. Results show that of all the swimming behaviour variables tested, only one (swimming in a school swimming pool) was significant. In relation to the bathing variables tested, only two (sharing a bath sponge with a MC-infected person, and sharing a bath towel with a MC-infected person), were significant. No relationship was found between MC and swimming in a private (home) pool, swimming in a public pool, swimming at the beach, sharing a bath tub with a MC-infected person, and using a private (home) spa. The Relative Risk (RR) ratio of a person sharing a bath sponge with an infected person is three times more at risk of procuring a severe case of MC infection (i.e. > 26 lesions) than a person who does not share a bath sponge with an infected person (r = 0.5; P < 0.01). There was a correlation found between the mode of MC acquisition by site location (r = 0.63; P < 0.05). The anatomical position of MC lesions was shown to be highly dependent on the way the patient was primarily infected. There was also an additive effect with the mode of transmission in that patients who were in the upper extremes in terms of the total number of lesions (average, 124 lesions; mean diameter size, 4.2 mm; n = 42), were those patients who shared a number of fomites (bath sponge, bath towel) with a known MC-infected person, and also swam at the school swimming pool.
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A bacteriological survey on the distribution and occurrence of coliforms and pathogenic indicators of pollution within the surf-zone and near-shore waters along a section of the Natal coast before the use of submarine outfalls with reported previously. In that report more than half the beaches in the region were found to be of Class IV or III quality. After the submarine outfalls became operational, ten further sampling runs were made. A considerable improvement in the sea-water quality was apparent, most of the beaches being regarded to Class II or I, notably in the bathing areas.
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