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PubMed1991

The APACHE III prognostic system. Risk prediction of hospital mortality for critically ill hospitalized adults.

The objective of this study was to refine the APACHE (Acute Physiology, Age, Chronic Health Evaluation) methodology in order to more accurately predict hospital mortality risk for critically ill hospitalized adults. We prospectively collected data on 17,440 unselected adult medical/surgical intensive care unit (ICU) admissions at 40 US hospitals (14 volunteer tertiary-care institutions and 26 hospitals randomly chosen to represent intensive care services nationwide). We analyzed the relationship between the patient's likelihood of surviving to hospital discharge and the following predictive variables: major medical and surgical disease categories, acute physiologic abnormalities, age, preexisting functional limitations, major comorbidities, and treatment location immediately prior to ICU admission. The APACHE III prognostic system consists of two options: (1) an APACHE III score, which can provide initial risk stratification for severely ill hospitalized patients within independently defined patient groups; and (2) an APACHE III predictive equation, which uses APACHE III score and reference data on major disease categories and treatment location immediately prior to ICU admission to provide risk estimates for hospital mortality for individual ICU patients. A five-point increase in APACHE III score (range, 0 to 299) is independently associated with a statistically significant increase in the relative risk of hospital death (odds ratio, 1.10 to 1.78) within each of 78 major medical and surgical disease categories. The overall predictive accuracy of the first-day APACHE III equation was such that, within 24 h of ICU admission, 95 percent of ICU admissions could be given a risk estimate for hospital death that was within 3 percent of that actually observed (r2 = 0.41; receiver operating characteristic = 0.90). Recording changes in the APACHE III score on each subsequent day of ICU therapy provided daily updates in these risk estimates. When applied across the individual ICUs, the first-day APACHE III equation accounted for the majority of variation in observed death rates (r2 = 0.90, p less than 0.0001).

Age Factors↗
PubMed1995

Comparison of APACHE II and III scoring systems for mortality prediction in critical surgical illness.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III (APACHE III), an updated version of APACHE II that contains a larger number of postoperative patients in the normative database, offers better prediction in critical surgical illness. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Surgical intensive care unit of an urban, tertiary-care university hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Eight hundred forty-four consecutive patients in the surgical intensive care unit. Overall scores were determined, as well as scores for survivor, nonsurvivor, trauma, nontrauma, postoperative, and nonoperative patient subgroups. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Survival to hospital discharge, and survival compared with published normative APACHE II and III databases. RESULTS: Mean age was 65.1 +/- 0.5 years. Overall mortality was 7.0% in the surgical intensive care unit and 9.1% in the hospital. The relationship between APACHE II and APACHE III scores for individual patients was linear and correlated significantly (P < .0001) (range of correlation coefficients, .72 to .86) overall and in all subgroups. Both scoring systems overestimated our mortality, but estimations made by APACHE III were significantly (P < .01) higher overall and in all subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: In institutions or groups of patients where APACHE II underestimates mortality, APACHE III may be corrective. However, the differences are subtle and may be difficult to detect in smaller studies.

APACHE↗
PubMed2006

Acute physiology, age, and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) III score is an alternative efficient predictor of mortality in burn patients.

The present study was performed to evaluate the prognostic value of the acute physiology, age, chronic health evaluation (APACHE) III score in burn patients. We hypothesised that APACHE III score efficiently predicts mortality of burn patients as it reflects the physiological changes in the acute phase and the severity of the underlying illness. Data such as age, gender, inhalation injury, total burn surface area (TBSA), burn index (BI), prognostic burn index (PBI), APACHE III score and outcome of 105 hospitalised patients were analysed retrospectively. TBSA, BI, PBI, and APACHE III score in the mortality group were significantly higher than those of surviving group. The mean scores of surviving versus mortality groups were as follows: TBSA, 19.2+/-17.8% versus 69.1+/-28.4%, p<0.0001; BI, 12.8+/-13.1% versus 66.8+/-28.6%, p<0.0001; PBI, 68.8+/-26.0% versus 124.4+/-33.6%, p<0.0001; APACHE III score, 28.4+/-22.2% versus 71.3+/-32.1%, p<0.0001. PBI and APACHE III score showed marked associations between higher scores and higher mortality. APACHE III score showed a significant correlation with PBI (p<0.0001). The present study suggested that APACHE III score could be used as an alternative efficient predictor of mortality in burn patients.

APACHE↗
PubMed1995

The Apache II scoring system in neurosurgical patients: a comparison with simple Glasgow coma scoring.

In order to compare the predictive value of the Apache II, the Glasgow Coma Scale and Revised Trauma Scoring systems in relation to outcome in a neurosurgical department high dependency unit (HDU), all 109 patients entering the unit under the care of one consultant were studied. All patients in the HDU were self-ventilating, so that motor responses were not suppressed by muscle relaxants or sedation. Initial Minimum and Maximum Glasgow Coma Scale Scores, Revised Trauma Score, Apache II and the Apache minus neurological weighting (Apache-NW) scores, were compared as predictors of outcome (as assessed by the Glasgow Outcome Score at 6 months). Twenty-eight patients had a bad outcome, i.e. Glasgow Outcome Scores 1-3, and 72 individuals a good outcome, i.e. scores 4 or 5. Statistical analysis was by the Spearman Ranked Correlation Test, and comparison of Receiver Operational Characteristics Curves. Data were complete on 100 patients (91.7%) and show the Maximum Glasgow Coma Score, followed by the Apache II score, as the best predictors of outcome analysed. This was also true if all patients except those with head injury were analysed as a group. All scoring systems were significantly better predictors of outcome in the head injured patient. For this group, Apache II had an outcome predictive value of 97% compared with 93% for initial and 95% for minimum GCS. Removing the neurological weighting from Apache II weakened its predictive ability in all patients, emphasizing that it is the neurological status of the patient which best predicts overall functional outcome. Apache II data are also much more time-consuming to collect than GCS data.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Brain Injuries↗
PubMed1992

Invalidation of the APACHE II scoring system for patients with acute trauma.

The APACHE II scoring system has been promulgated as a useful tool in the assessment of the severity of injury and prognosis for acutely ill patients. The physiologic basis for stratification is weighted toward older patients with chronic medical conditions. Recently, the APACHE II system has been proposed as a method for determining diagnosis related group (DRG) reimbursement for individual trauma patients. The present study applied the APACHE II scoring system to 280 patients with blunt or penetrating trauma who had documented systolic blood pressure < 90 mm Hg. Fifty-seven (20%) died of their injuries within the first 24 hours. APACHE II scores were recorded both in the emergency room (ED) and at 24 hours following admission. Injury Severity Scores (ISS), Revised Trauma Scores (RTS), and TRISSCAN were calculated. The APACHE II (n = 223) recorded at 24 hours (2.5 +/- 0.2) was significantly less than that recorded in the ED (6.6 +/- 0.3, p < 0.05, Mann-Whitney analysis). Using regression analysis, there was no correlation between APACHE II and ISS if recorded in the ED (r2 = 0.06) or 24 hours following admission (r2 = 0.08). APACHE II also demonstrated a poor correlation with the length of hospital stay (r2 = 0.03 [ED], = 0.19 [24 hours]). Whereas APACHE II may be helpful in defining severity of disease among patients with acute-on-chronic medical conditions, the classification lacks an anatomic component, which is essential to assess the magnitude of acute injury in patients who are typically otherwise healthy.

Acute Disease↗
PubMed1994

The case against using the APACHE system to predict intensive care unit outcome in trauma patients.

The use of outcome indices as a means of evaluating institutional performance for delivery of medical care is at the forefront of federal health policy reforms. Because an enormous number of clinical and financial data are generated by ICU patients, it is inevitable that integrated bedside computers will be necessary to supply the type of information that is being sought by governmental and private insurance agencies involved in assessment of hospital performance. The Health Care Financing Administration already has adopted the APACHE data collection protocols and predictive models for the severity of illness adjustments that were used in assessing the 1986 hospital-specific death rate for acute myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, stroke, and pneumonia. In our opinion, however, it is unlikely that any single system will be developed that can accurately estimate more than 50% of ICU deaths. The intention of the APACHE III system to include 78 diagnostic categories seems unrealistic. Furthermore, the number of data needed to document outcomes for both low- and high-risk admissions is impractical. We are evaluating APACHE III to determine whether the revisions to the definition for head trauma will represent a significant improvement in predicting outcomes for trauma patients. In the interim, the financial investment in the APACHE III automated bedside data collection system cannot be justified for trauma patients. Neither should it be used in ICUs that admit a large number of trauma patients as a tool for monitoring unit efficiency, guiding triage decisions, allocating staff and ICU beds, identifying risks of iatrogenic or other potential complications, or assessing quality of life, in spite of marketing efforts by the APACHE Corporation. We believe that using any of the APACHE systems for these purposes, at best, is premature, and potentially misrepresents the trauma patient population. Standards for patient classification already are in place for use in making determinations for institutional reimbursement from governmental and insurance agencies. The inequities for certain subgroups of patients, including trauma patients, could create situations in which care is rationed rather than allocated according to a plan that distributes resources efficiently. The APACHE system has several shortcomings and adds little, if anything, to the potential solutions for trauma quality assurance and resource allocation. Nor has the APACHE system established procedures for documenting institutional review of unexpected trauma deaths that would be equivalent, for example, to the type of audit filters applied by the American College of Surgeons in conjunction with the TRISS methodology.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Bias↗
PubMed1994

[Prognostic value of 2 patient classification systems: APACHE II and diagnosis-related groups].

UNLABELLED: The APACHE II system classified patients on the basis of the severity of their disease, while the groups related with the diagnosis (DRG) are classified according to the consumption of resources. Nonetheless, the relative DRG weight (RWDRG) may be related with severity given that the most severe patients are also usually the most expensive. The aims of the study were: 1) verify the ability of DRG to measure clinical severity and 2) compare the prognostic value of both systems. METHODS: A transversal cut off was performed (316 consecutive admissions in intensive care units [ICU] with 23 exclusions due to unclear final evolution) with the patients being classified according to final hospital evolution in survivors and deaths. Each patient was given an APACHE II score corresponding to the first 24 hours in the ICU. Parallelly the cases were grouped in the corresponding DRG in accordance with the CIE-9-MC codification of their discharge report. The comparison of the means was carried out with the Student's t test, with the determination of prognostic values being performed by discriminant analysis. RESULTS: The survivors had an APACHE II score of 9.5 +/- 5.5 and the deaths of 22.5 +/- 7.8 (p < 0.0001). The RWDRG of the survivors was 1.4 +/- 0.9 and that of the deaths of 2.0 +/- 1.0 (p < 0.0001). On inclusion of all the patients the APACHE II prognostic value was 85.3% and the RWDRG 68.9% and both 84.6%. In the group of patients with a RWDRG lower than 1.6 the prognostic value of the APACHE II was of 87.6% and the RGRDW 72.0% and both 90%. In the group with RWDRG greater than 1.6 the prognostic value of the APACHE II was 85.1%, the RWDRG 73.0% and both 83.2%. CONCLUSIONS: The system of the groups related with diagnosis indirectly measures clinical severity. APACHE II is significantly superior to the system of groups related with diagnosis with regard to prognostic value. The use of both systems together does not improve the prognostic value of APACHE II.

Diagnosis-Related Groups↗
PubMed2004

Prediction of mortality in an Indian intensive care unit. Comparison between APACHE II and artificial neural networks.

OBJECTIVE: To compare hospital outcome prediction using an artificial neural network model, built on an Indian data set, with the APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II) logistic regression model. DESIGN: Analysis of a database containing prospectively collected data. SETTING: Medical-neurological ICU of a university hospital in Mumbai, India. SUBJECTS: Two thousand sixty-two consecutive admissions between 1996 and 1998. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The 22 variables used to obtain day-1 APACHE II score and risk of death were recorded. Data from 1,962 patients were used to train the neural network using a back-propagation algorithm. Data from the remaining 1,000 patients were used for testing this model and comparing it with APACHE II. There were 337 deaths in these 1,000 patients; APACHE II predicted 246 deaths while the neural network predicted 336 deaths. Calibration, assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, was better with the neural network (H=22.4) than with APACHE II (H=123.5) and so was discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve =0.87 versus 0.77, p=0.002). Analysis of information gain due to each of the 22 variables revealed that the neural network could predict outcome using only 15 variables. A new model using these 15 variables predicted 335 deaths, had calibration (H=27.7) and discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve =0.88) which was comparable to the 22-variable model (p=0.87) and superior to the APACHE II equation (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Artificial neural networks, trained on Indian patient data, used fewer variables and yet outperformed the APACHE II system in predicting hospital outcome.

APACHE↗
PubMed2000

Sampling rate causes bias in APACHE II and SAPS II scores.

OBJECTIVE: To study the effect of sampling rate of laboratory and haemodynamic data on severity scorings and predicted risk of hospital death. DESIGN: Prospective study. SETTING: Medical-surgical intensive care unit (ICU) with 23 beds in a university hospital. PATIENTS: Sixty-nine consecutive emergency admission patients. INTERVENTIONS: Blood samples were drawn from indwelling arterial lines for the laboratory tests of all variables contained in the APACHE II and SAPS II scores at 2-hourly intervals from the time of admission up to 24 h or earlier discharge or death of the patient. Haemodynamic data and temperature were collected either manually by the attending nurse once an hour or as 2-min median values automatically using a Clinical Information Management System (CIMS, Clinisoft, Datex-Ohmeda, Helsinki, Finland). Three sets of severity scores were obtained. (1) "Traditional" scores (haemodynamic data from manual records and laboratory values from tests taken at admission and subsequently on clinical basis only). (2) "CIMS" scores (haemodynamic data from 2-min median values and laboratory values prescribed on clinical indication) and (3) "High rate" scores (haemodynamic data from 2-min median values and laboratory values at 2-hourly intervals). Probability of hospital death was calculated using the SAPS II and APACHE II scores, respectively. RESULTS: Increasing the sampling rate of haemodynamic monitoring interval to 2-min from once per hour resulted in 7.8 % and 11.5 % increases (p < 0.001) in the APACHE II and SAPS II scores, respectively. The combined effect of increased sampling rate of haemodynamic and laboratory tests on the APACHE II and SAPS II scores was 14.4 % and 14.5 % compared to traditional scores (p < 0.001), respectively. The probability of hospital death increased from 0.23 and 0.21 ("traditional" SAPS II and APACHE II) to 0.31 and 0.25 ("high rate" SAPS II and APACHE II), respectively, and, because eight patients died, standardised mortality ratio (SMR) decreased from 0.53 to 0.41 (SAPS II) and from 0.60 to 0.50 (APACHE II). CONCLUSIONS: Increased sampling rate results in higher scores and lower SMR. Comparisons between hospitals using severity scores are biased due to differences in the sampling rates.

APACHE↗
PubMed1997

Mortality discrimination in acute myocardial infarction: comparison between APACHE III and SAPS II prognosis systems. PAEEC Group.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the Acute Physiology, Age and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III with the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II) in discriminating in-hospital mortality for intensive care unit (ICU) patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). DESIGN: Prospective, observational, multicenter study. SETTING: 70 Spanish ICUs. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: 1711 patients with AMI and representative of Spanish ICUs. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: APACHE III score, APACHE III system probability of death (APACHE III probability), SAPS II score and in-hospital mortality were noted for each patient. Two hundred and twenty three (13.0 %) patients died in the hospital. The sensitivity (+/- SE), specificity (+/- SE), and accuracy (+/- SE) for the APACHE III score were, respectively, 75.8 +/- 2.9, 75.9 +/- 1.1, and 75.9 +/- 1.0. The corresponding figures for APACHE III probability were 75.3 +/- 2.9, 79.2 +/- 1.1, and 78.7 +/- 1.0, and for SAPS II 72.2 +/- 3.0, 75.9 +/- 1.1, and 75.4 +/- 1.0. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate good discrimination by the three tests. APACHE III probability shows a statistically significant improvement in accuracy and specificity when compared with the two scores.

APACHE↗
PubMed1995

Use of the APACHE II scoring system to determine mortality of gynecologic oncology patients in the intensive care unit.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if an elevated score on the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scoring system is associated with mortality of acutely ill gynecologic oncology patients. METHODS: Gynecologic oncology patients admitted to the surgical intensive care unit (ICU) were identified from the ICU data base. Their admission APACHE II score and type of gynecologic cancer were also extracted from the data base. Charts were reviewed to determine the disease status and reason for admission to the surgical ICU. Patient mortality was correlated with APACHE II scores. RESULTS: Forty-five gynecologic oncology patients were admitted to the surgical ICU from June 1988 to January 1992. They had a mean age of 62 years and various cancers: ovarian (24), cervical (16), and endometrial (five). The mean APACHE II score was 12 (range 2-26). Eight of 45 (18%) patients died. There was a significant correlation between APACHE II scores and mortality; patients with an APACHE II score of 20 or greater had a 78% risk of death compared to a 3% risk if the score was less than 20 (P < .001, chi 2 test). CONCLUSION: Elevated APACHE II scores are associated with mortality in acutely ill gynecologic oncology patients.

APACHE↗
PubMed2006

Utility of Acute Physiology, Age, and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE III) score in maternal admissions to the intensive care unit.

OBJECTIVE: A mean Acute Physiology, Age, and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE III) score of > 50 is associated with increased intensive care unit mortality rate in nonpregnant cardiac and trauma patients. The objective was to determine the usefulness of the APACHE III score in maternal admissions to an intensive care unit in a tertiary care center in an urban multicultural city. STUDY DESIGN: This was a retrospective review of all maternal admissions (> 20 weeks of gestation or after delivery) to an intensive care unit between January 2002 and May 2004. Demographics, obstetric and medical history, and 20 physiologic variables that comprise the APACHE III were recorded. The minimum APACHE III score (lowest risk of death) is 0; maximum is 299. The association between APACHE III score and maternal death was assessed with Mann Whitney U test. Significance was assumed at a probability value of < .05. RESULTS: Fifty-eight subjects met the study criteria. Thirty percent of these women were admitted antepartum (27 +/- 1.0 weeks of gestation); 31% of the women were admitted on the day of delivery; and 29% of the women were admitted after delivery. Mean maternal age was 27 +/- 6.7 years. Acute conditions that resulted in transfer to the intensive care unit included preeclampsia (24%), cardiorespiratory disease (21%), hemorrhage (16%), infection (12%), trauma (7%), and thromboembolism (3%). Fifty-five percent of the women had no previous underlying obstetric complications, and 98% of the women had no underlying chronic health condition. Fifty-eight percent of the women received care in a medical intensive care unit; 28% of the women received care in a surgical intensive care unit; 10% of the women received care in a cardiac intensive care unit, and 3% of the women received care in a neurologic intensive care unit. The mean intensive care unit stay was 3.7 +/- 4.6 days, and the mean hospital stay was 9.0 +/- 7 days. Three patients died; the rest of the patients went home in good condition. The median APACHE III score was 34 (range, 14-102) and was not correlated with maternal death. CONCLUSION: The APACHE III is not associated with risk of intensive care unit-related maternal death.

APACHE↗
PubMed2000

Improved outcome of APACHE II score-defined escalating systemic inflammatory response syndrome in patients post cardiac surgery in 1996 compared to 1988-1990: the ESSICS-study pilot project.

OBJECTIVE: Cardiac surgery using extracorporeal circulation leads to the release of cytokines and subsequently to a systemic inflammatory response syndrome, which is thought to be a negative prognostic factor for patients' outcome. A stratification for the risk of an escalating systemic inflammatory response syndrome had been achieved in a monocenter study carried out in 1988-1990, using APACHE II scoring on the morning of the 1st postoperative day. We now re-evaluated this concept prospectively in three independent centers. METHODS: The APACHE II based risk stratification was put to test in three independent heart surgery centers in the period from June to December 1996. Nine hundred and forty-five patients after elective cardiac surgery (excluding heart transplantation) with the assistance of the cardiopulmonary bypass were prospectively monitored. RESULTS: We found an increase in mortality with higher APACHE II score values determined on the 1st postoperative day. The mortality rose to nearly 50% with an APACHE II score of > or = 28. Patients at high risk for the development of a systemic inflammatory response syndrome (APACHE II score > or = 24) significantly differed from patients at lower risk (APACHE II score < 19) in the duration of mechanical ventilation and extracorporeal circulation, age and New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The APACHE II score determined on the morning of the 1st postoperative day helps identifying the subgroup of patients with escalating systemic inflammatory response syndrome. Comparison with the data obtained in the years 1988-1990, suggests a better prognosis in the current trial for patients at high risk with a similar degree of escalating systemic inflammatory response syndrome.

APACHE↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Long-term air medical services system performance using APACHE-II and mortality benchmarking.

OBJECTIVE: Air medical transport programs have been in existence for two decades. During this time, no outcome measures have been developed for these services. The authors examined severity scoring and mortality data from their air medical service to characterize its performance and to identify trends in acuity and mortality over a 15-year period. METHODS: APACHE-II scores derived at the time of transport and hospital mortality data have been concurrently recorded in the flight database for adult transports since 1986. The authors analyzed these data and examined the correlation between APACHE-II score at the time of transport and hospital mortality for the 15-year period 1986-2001. RESULTS: 13,808 adult transports were identified. APACHE data were available for 8,204 patients (59%) and mortality for 10,845 (79%), respectively. The number of transports increased from 935 to 1,231 per year. Mean APACHE-II for all patients was 11.6 +/- 8.4. Overall mortality was 22%. Both patient acuity and mortality were trending upward over time. The correlation between APACHE-II and mortality was close and linear (mortality = 0.018 x APACHE-II -0.0243, R2 = 0.97). CONCLUSIONS: Both severity of illness and mortality of air-transported patients appear to be increasing slowly over time in response to changes in the health care system. The strong correlation between APACHE-II performed at the time of transport and mortality validates this technique for benchmarking. The slope of this correlation is an outcome-based characteristic of system performance that may allow monitoring of a system over time and comparisons between systems.

APACHE↗
PubMed2000

Comparison of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) scoring systems in a single Greek intensive care unit.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II scoring systems in a single intensive care unit (ICU), independent from the ICUs of the developmental sample; and to compare the performance of APACHE II and SAPS II by means of statistical analyses in such a clinical setting. DESIGN: Prospective, cohort study. SETTING: A single ICU in a Greek university hospital. PATIENTS: In a time interval of 5 yrs, data for 681 patients admitted to our ICU were collected. The original exclusion criteria of both systems were employed. Patients <17 yrs of age were dropped from the study to keep compatibility with both systems. Eventually, a total of 661 patients were included in the analysis. INTERVENTIONS: Demographics, clinical parameters essential for the calculation of APACHE II and SAPS II scores, and risk of hospital death were recorded. Patient vital status was followed up to hospital discharge. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Both systems showed poor calibration and underestimated mortality but had good discriminative power, with SAPS II performing better than APACHE II. The evaluation of uniformity of fit in various subgroups for both systems confirmed the pattern of underprediction of mortality from both models and the better performance of APACHE II over our data sample. CONCLUSIONS: APACHE II and SAPS II failed to predict mortality in a population sample other than the one used for their development. APACHE II performed better than SAPS II. Validation in such a population is essential. Because there is a great variation in clinical and other patient characteristics among ICUs, it is doubtful that one system can be validated in all types of populations to be used for comparisons among different ICUs.

APACHE↗
PubMed2003

Balthazar computed tomography severity index is superior to Ranson criteria and APACHE II and III scoring systems in predicting acute pancreatitis outcome.

BACKGROUND AND GOALS: Acute pancreatitis runs an unpredictable course. We prospectively analyzed the prognostic usefulness of four different scoring systems in separately assessing three variables; acute pancreatitis severity, development of organ failure and pancreatic necrosis. STUDY: 78 patients with acute pancreatitis were studied prospectively. Data pertinent to scoring systems were recorded 24 hours (APACHE II and III scores), 48 hours (Ranson score) and 72 hours (Balthazar computed tomography severity index) after admission. Statistical analysis was performed by using receiver operating characteristic curves and by comparing likelihood ratios of positive test (LRPT) for all three outcome variables. RESULTS: 44 patients were classified as mild and 34 as severe pancreatitis. When we compared LRPT, only that for the Balthazar score (11.2157) was able to generate large and conclusive changes from pretest to post-test probability in acute pancreatitis severity prediction. LRPT were 2.4157 for Ranson, 4.0980 for APACHE II and 3.6670 for APACHE III score. The APACHE II and III scores and Ranson criteria performed slightly better than the Balthazar score in predicting organ failure (LRPT: 4.0667, 3.2892, 3.0362 and 1.7941 respectively), while when predicting pancreatic necrosis the APACHE II and III performed slightly better than the Ranson score (LRPT: 2.0769, 2.7500 and 1.7813 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In all outcome measures the APACHE scores generate small and of similar extent changes in probability. The Balthazar score is superior to other scoring systems in predicting acute pancreatitis severity and pancreatic necrosis. However the Ranson and APACHE scores perform slightly better with respect to organ failure prediction.

APACHE↗
PubMed2003

Feasibility of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II and III score-based screening in patients receiving allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation.

Patients who require management in the intensive care unit (ICU) for complications after allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT) generally have a poor outcome. We retrospectively studied whether the risk-prediction stratification systems commonly used for patients admitted to the ICU, that is, the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and APACHE III systems, could be useful for identifying patients who should receive intensive care earlier. We reviewed the medical records of 210 patients who underwent allogeneic HSCT and found that 18 (8.6%) had been admitted to the ICU for acute respiratory failure (n=9), acute renal failure (n=7), and septic shock (n=2). The median APACHE II and III scores were, respectively, 16 (10-27) and 55 (22-87) at the onset of complications and 26 (15-43) and 101 (65-157) upon admission to the ICU. Thus, both the APACHE II and APACHE III scores at ICU admission were higher than those at the onset of complications (P <0.0001). Seventeen patients (94%) subsequently died, with a median ICU stay of 7.5 days (1-51 days), as a result of multiorgan failure (n=14), respiratory failure (n=2), and septic shock (n=1). The APACHE II and III scores of the sole surviving patient were, respectively, 21 and 71 at the onset and 24 and 86 upon transfer to the ICU. Thus, the APACHE scores in this study were lower than those reported for other surgical or medical patients treated in the ICU, despite their uniform poor prognosis. Although nine patients had developed grade III to IV acute graft-versus-host disease, which is the most common cause of morbidity and mortality after allogeneic HSCT, this was not fully evaluated in the current scoring systems. Application of these systems to HSCT will require adequate modification, with particular attention to organ dysfunction secondary to graft-versus-host disease.

APACHE↗
PubMed1998

Predicting hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients: comparison of Child-Pugh and Acute Physiology, Age and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE III) scoring systems.

OBJECTIVE: The severity of hepatic abnormalities and extent of dysfunction of other organ systems influences prognosis for cirrhosis. The Child-Pugh system has been used to classify cirrhotic patients into good, intermediate, or poor risk categories in evaluation and therapy. Disregard for cardiorespiratory, renal, electrolyte balance, and acid base status limits its predictive accuracy. We evaluated the accuracy of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE III) to predict short term hospital mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis. METHODS: A total of 282 patients were prospectively enrolled. Child-Pugh and APACHE III scores were recorded on day 1 for each patient. RESULTS: Mean age was 51.7+/-11.3 yr, with 65% men and 35% women; 57% presented with upper GI bleeding, 47% encephalopathy, 9% hepatorenal syndrome, and 7% hepatocellular carcinoma. Sixty-three patients (22%) died. Major causes of death were upper GI bleeding 38%, liver failure 21%, hepatorenal syndrome 19%, hepatocellular carcinoma 4%, and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis 6%. Child-Pugh and APACHE III scores for survivors (8.6+/-2.3 and 58.9+/-35.1) were lower than those for nonsurvivors (10.9+/-2.7 and 87.4+/-30.3) (p < 0.001). Using discriminant analysis, APACHE III correctly identified 75% of cases vs 67% of cases for Child-Pugh (p < 0.05). When information regarding ascites and prothrombin time was added to APACHE III, 81% of cases were correctly classified. CONCLUSION: The APACHE III scoring system is superior to Child-Pugh for prognosticating short term survival of cirrhotic patients. Prognostic accuracy of APACHE III can be enhanced by incorporating information regarding ascites and prothrombin time prolongation.

APACHE↗