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PubMed2000

Extinctions and taxonomy in a trophic model of coevolution.

We investigate the statistics of extinction sizes and the taxonomy in a trophic model of evolution recently proposed [Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 652 (1999)]. By further exploring the parameters of this model, we find that the distribution of extinction sizes N(s) shows typically a characteristic maximum before developing the power-law behavior N(s) approximately s(-alpha) with alpha approximately 2, in agreement with empirical observations. Furthermore, the derivation of the alpha=-2 exponent given by Drossel [Phys. Rev. Lett. 81, 5011 (1998)] for this model is completed. The extinction sizes in each trophic level are also analyzed; one finds that at the fourth level and up (l> or =4) the extinction size statistics is a power law with exponent alpha(l) approximately 1.4, and exponential-like at the second level, also in agreement with some empirical data not previously explained by current models. On the other hand, in contrast to the observed power-law distribution of the number of species in genera, numerical simulations yield an exponential law. A modification of the model is presented that provides an approximate potential behavior for taxonomy, and some consequences for future modeling are outlined.

Biological Evolution↗
PubMed2004

Extinction in population dynamics.

We study a generic reaction-diffusion model for single-species population dynamics that includes reproduction, death, and competition. The population is assumed to be confined in a refuge beyond which conditions are so harsh that they lead to certain extinction. Standard continuum mean field models in one dimension yield a critical refuge length L(c) such that a population in a refuge larger than this is assured survival. Herein we extend the model to take into account the discreteness and finiteness of the population, which leads us to a stochastic description. We present a particular critical criterion for likely extinction, namely, that the standard deviation of the population be equal to the mean. According to this criterion, we find that while survival can no longer be guaranteed for any refuge size, for sufficiently weak competition one can make the refuge large enough (certainly larger than L(c)) to cause extinction to be unlikely. However, beyond a certain value of the competition rate parameter it is no longer possible to escape a likelihood of extinction even in an infinite refuge. These unavoidable fluctuations therefore have a severe impact on refuge design issues.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Spatially synchronous extinction of species under external forcing.

More than 99% of the species that ever existed on the surface of the Earth are now extinct and their extinction on a global scale has been a puzzle. One may think that a species under an external threat may survive in some isolated locations leading to the revival of the species. Using a general model we show that, under a common external forcing, the species with a quadratic saturation term first undergoes spatial synchronization and then extinction. The effect can be observed even when the external forcing acts only on some locations provided the dynamics contains a synchronizing term. Absence of the quadratic saturation term can help the species to avoid extinction.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Resistance of spiders to Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction events.

Throughout Earth history a small number of global catastrophic events leading to biotic crises have caused mass extinctions. Here, using a technique that combines taxonomic and numerical data, we consider the effects of the Cenomanian-Turonian and Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinctions on the terrestrial spider fauna in the light of new fossil data. We provide the first evidence that spiders suffered no decline at the family level during these mass extinction events. On the contrary, we show that they increased in relative numbers through the Cretaceous and beyond the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction event.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Tracking a genetic signal of extinction-recolonization events in a neotropical tree species: Vouacapoua americana Aublet in French Guiana.

Drier periods from the late Pleistocene and early Holocene have been hypothesized to have caused the disappearance of various rainforest species over large geographical areas in South America and restricted the extant populations to mesic sites. Subsequent improvement in climatic conditions has been associated with recolonization. Changes in population size associated with these extinction-recolonization events should have affected genetic diversity within species. However, these historical hypotheses and their genetic consequences have rarely been tested in South America. Here, we examine the diversity of the chloroplast and nuclear genomes in a Neotropical rainforest tree species, Vouacapoua americana (Leguminosae, Caesalpinioideae) in French Guiana. The chloroplast diversity was analyzed using a polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism method (six pairs of primers) in 29 populations distributed over most of French Guiana, and a subset of 17 populations was also analyzed at nine polymorphic microsatellite loci. To determine whether this species has experienced extinction-recolonization, we sampled populations in areas supposedly not or only slightly affected by climatic changes, where the populations would not have experienced frequent extinction, and in areas that appear to have been recently recolonized. In the putatively recolonized areas, we found patches of several thousands of hectares homogeneous for chloroplast variation that can be interpreted as the effect of recolonization processes from several geographical origins. In addition, we observed that, for both chloroplast and nuclear genomes, the populations in newly recolonized areas exhibited a significantly smaller allelic richness than others. Controlling for geographic distance, we also detected a significant correlation between chloroplast and nuclear population differentiation. This result indicates a cytonuclear disequilibrium that can be interpreted as a historical signal of a genetic divergence between fragmented populations. In conclusion, the spatial genetic structure of contemporary V. americana populations shows evidence that this species has experienced large extinction-recolonization events, which were possibly caused by past climatic change.

Climate↗
PubMed2006

Significance of sighting rate in inferring extinction and threat.

We are now entering a time of immense environmental upheaval in which, increasingly, experts are required to provide conservation assessments. Quantitative assessment of trends in species' range and abundance is costly, requiring extensive field studies over a long period of time. Unfortunately, many species are only known through a few "chance" sightings or a handful of specimens, and therefore extinction may be even harder to ascertain. Several methods have been proposed for estimating the probability of extinction. However comparison within and between species is difficult because of variations in sighting rates. We applied a probabilistic method that incorporates sighting rate to the sighting record of Vietnamese slipper orchids (Paphiopedilum). The method generates a probability that another sighting will occur given the previous sighting rate and the time since last observation. This allows greater comparability between species discovered at different times. Its predictions were more highly correlated with the World Conservation Union criteria than previous methods. Trends in data collection and the political climate of a country, which affects access to material, are important potential sources of variation that affect sighting rates. A lack of understanding of the process by which data are generated makes inferring extinction from sighting records difficult because extinction status depends on how the sighting rate varies. However such methods allow rapid conservation prioritization of taxa that are poorly known and would otherwise go unassessed.

Conservation of Natural Resources↗
PubMed2005

Extremely rapid recovery of human cone circulating current at the extinction of bleaching exposures.

We used a conductive fibre electrode placed in the lower conjunctival sac to record the a-wave of the human photopic electroretinogram elicited by bright white flashes, delivered during, or at different times after, exposure of the eye to bright white illumination that bleached a large fraction (approximately 90%) of the cone photopigment. During steady-state exposures of this intensity, the amplitude of the bright-flash response declined to approximately 50% of its dark-adapted level. After the intense background was turned off, the amplitude of the bright-flash response recovered substantially, for flashes presented within 20 ms of background extinction, and fully, for flashes presented 100 ms after extinction. In addition, a prominent 'background-off a-wave' was observed, beginning within 5-10 ms of background extinction. We interpret these results to show, firstly, that human cones are able to preserve around half of their circulating current during steady-state illumination that bleaches 90% of their pigment and, secondly, that following extinction of such illumination, the cone circulating current is restored within a few tens of milliseconds. This behaviour is in stark contrast to that in human rods, where the circulating current is obliterated by a background that bleaches only a few percent of the pigment, and where full recovery following a large bleach takes at least 20 min, some 50,000 times more slowly than shown here for human cones.

Action Potentials↗
PubMed2001

Some aspects of sound extinction by zooplankton.

To address the importance of sound extinction (or the shadowing effect) in the presence of a densely aggregated zooplankton layer, acoustic scattering by weakly scattering fluid objects is studied theoretically. An analytical expression for the extinction cross section is obtained based on the forward scattering theorem and the analytical formula for the forward scattering amplitude is derived from the Modal Based-Deformed Cylinder Model (MB-DCM). The validity of the MB-DCM solution for the forward scattering amplitude and its sensitivity to geometrical and physical parameters is studied. Comparison with the PC-DWBA (Phase-Compensated-Distorted Wave Born Approximation) shows a reasonable agreement between the two models. The extinction cross section is shown to be proportional to (ka)2 and the induced attenuation is predicted for various species of zooplankton over a wide frequency range. It is shown that, under certain realistic conditions, such as the presence of a swarm of aggregated krill, sound extinction by zooplankton could influence the acoustic measurements significantly, as much as an 85% reduction in acoustic intensity for Euphausia superba with n = 5000 ind./m3 over a range of 50 m.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2001

A multispecies overkill simulation of the end-Pleistocene megafaunal mass extinction.

A computer simulation of North American end-Pleistocene human and large herbivore population dynamics correctly predicts the extinction or survival of 32 out of 41 prey species. Slow human population growth rates, random hunting, and low maximum hunting effort are assumed; additional parameters are based on published values. Predictions are close to observed values for overall extinction rates, human population densities, game consumption rates, and the temporal overlap of humans and extinct species. Results are robust to variation in unconstrained parameters. This fully mechanistic model accounts for megafaunal extinction without invoking climate change and secondary ecological effects.

Animals↗
PubMed2001

New ages for the last Australian megafauna: continent-wide extinction about 46,000 years ago.

All Australian land mammals, reptiles, and birds weighing more than 100 kilograms, and six of the seven genera with a body mass of 45 to 100 kilograms, perished in the late Quaternary. The timing and causes of these extinctions remain uncertain. We report burial ages for megafauna from 28 sites and infer extinction across the continent around 46,400 years ago (95% confidence interval, 51,200 to 39,800 years ago). Our results rule out extreme aridity at the Last Glacial Maximum as the cause of extinction, but not other climatic impacts; a "blitzkrieg" model of human-induced extinction; or an extended period of anthropogenic ecosystem disruption.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Morphological disparity of ammonoids and the mark of Permian mass extinctions.

The taxonomic diversity of ammonoids, in terms of the number of taxa preserved, provides an incomplete picture of the extinction pattern during the Permian because of a strongly biased fossil record. The analysis of morphological disparity (the variety of shell shapes) is a powerful complementary tool for testing hypotheses about the selectivity of extinction and permits the recognition of three distinct patterns. First, a trend of decreasing disparity, ranging for about 30 million years, led to a minimum disparity immediately before the Permian-Triassic boundary. Second, the strongly selective Capitanian crisis fits a model of background extinction driven by standard environmental changes. Third, the end-Permian mass extinction operated as a random, nonselective sorting of morphologies, which is consistent with a catastrophic cause.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Extinction and ecosystem function in the marine benthos.

Rapid changes in biodiversity are occurring globally, yet the ecological impacts of diversity loss are poorly understood. Here we use data from marine invertebrate communities to parameterize models that predict how extinctions will affect sediment bioturbation, a process vital to the persistence of aquatic communities. We show that species extinction is generally expected to reduce bioturbation, but the magnitude of reduction depends on how the functional traits of individual species covary with their risk of extinction. As a result, the particular cause of extinction and the order in which species are lost ultimately govern the ecosystem-level consequences of biodiversity loss.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Hypoxia, global warming, and terrestrial late Permian extinctions.

A catastrophic extinction occurred at the end of the Permian Period. However, baseline extinction rates appear to have been elevated even before the final catastrophe, suggesting sustained environmental degradation. For terrestrial vertebrates during the Late Permian, the combination of a drop in atmospheric oxygen plus climate warming would have induced hypoxic stress and consequently compressed altitudinal ranges to near sea level. Our simulations suggest that the magnitude of altitudinal compression would have forced extinctions by reducing habitat diversity, fragmenting and isolating populations, and inducing a species-area effect. It also might have delayed ecosystem recovery after the mass extinction.

Altitude↗
PubMed2005

Multiple causes of high extinction risk in large mammal species.

Many large animal species have a high risk of extinction. This is usually thought to result simply from the way that species traits associated with vulnerability, such as low reproductive rates, scale with body size. In a broad-scale analysis of extinction risk in mammals, we find two additional patterns in the size selectivity of extinction risk. First, impacts of both intrinsic and environmental factors increase sharply above a threshold body mass around 3 kilograms. Second, whereas extinction risk in smaller species is driven by environmental factors, in larger species it is driven by a combination of environmental factors and intrinsic traits. Thus, the disadvantages of large size are greater than generally recognized, and future loss of large mammal biodiversity could be far more rapid than expected.

Animals↗
PubMed1993

Geography of end-Cretaceous marine bivalve extinctions.

Analysis of the end-Cretaceous mass extinction, based on 3514 occurrences of 340 genera of marine bivalves (Mollusca), suggests that extinction intensities were uniformly global; no latitudinal gradients or other geographic patterns are detected. Elevated extinction intensities in some tropical areas are entirely a result of the distribution of one extinct group of highly specialized bivalves, the rudists. When rudists are omitted, intensities at those localities are statistically indistinguishable from those of both the rudist-free tropics and extratropical localities.

Animals↗
PubMed1987

New early Jurassic tetrapod assemblages constrain Triassic-Jurassic tetrapod extinction event.

The discovery of the first definitively correlated earliest Jurassic (200 million years before present) tetrapod assemblage (Fundy basin, Newark Supergroup, Nova Scotia) allows reevaluation of the duration of the Triassic-Jurassic tetrapod extinction event. Present are tritheledont and mammal-like reptiles, prosauropod, theropod, and ornithischian dinosaurs, protosuchian and sphenosuchian crocodylomorphs, sphenodontids, and hybodont, semionotid, and palaeonisciform fishes. All of the families are known from Late Triassic and Jurassic strata from elsewhere; however, pollen and spore, radiometric, and geochemical correlation indicate an early Hettangian age for these assemblages. Because all "typical Triassic" forms are absent from these assemblages, most Triassic-Jurassic tetrapod extinctions occurred before this time and without the introduction of new families. As was previously suggested by studies of marine invertebrates, this pattern is consistent with a global extinction event at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary. The Manicouagan impact structure of Quebec provides dates broadly compatible with the Triassic-Jurassic boundary and, following the impact theory of mass extinctions, may be implicated in the cause.

Animals↗
PubMed1995

Diversification and extinction in the history of life.

Analysis of the fossil record of microbes, algae, fungi, protists, plants, and animals shows that the diversity of both marine and continental life increased exponentially since the end of the Precambrian. This diversification was interrupted by mass extinctions, the largest of which occurred in the Early Cambrian, Late Ordovician, Late Devonian, Late Permian, Early Triassic, Late Triassic, and end-Cretaceous. Most of these extinctions were experienced by both marine and continental organisms. As for the periodicity of mass extinctions, no support was found: Seven mass extinction peaks in the last 250 million years are spaced 20 to 60 million years apart.

Animals↗
PubMed2001

Efficient virus extinction by combinations of a mutagen and antiviral inhibitors.

The effect of combinations of the mutagenic base analog 5-fluorouracil (FU) and the antiviral inhibitors guanidine hydrochloride (G) and heparin (H) on the infectivity of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in cell culture has been investigated. Related FMDV clones differing up to 10(6)-fold in relative fitness in BHK-21 cells have been compared. Systematic extinction of intermediate fitness virus was attained with a combination of FU and G but not with the mutagen or the inhibitor alone. Systematic extinction of high-fitness FMDV required the combination of FU, G, and H. FMDV showing high relative fitness in BHK-21 cells but decreased replicative ability in CHO cells behaved as a low-fitness virus with regard to extinction mutagenesis in CHO cells. This confirms that relative fitness, rather than a specific genomic sequence, determines the FMDV response to enhanced mutagenesis. Mutant spectrum analysis of several genomic regions from a preextinction population showed a statistically significant increase in the number of mutations compared with virus passaged in parallel in the absence of FU and inhibitors. Also, in a preextinction population the types of mutations that can be attributed to the mutagenic action of FU were significantly more frequent than other mutation types. The results suggest that combinations of mutagenic agents and antiviral inhibitors can effectively drive high-fitness virus into extinction.

Animals↗