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PubMed1984

Periodicity of extinctions in the geologic past.

The temporal distribution of the major extinctions over the past 250 million years has been investigated statistically using various forms of time series analysis. The analyzed record is based on variation in extinction intensity for fossil families of marine vertebrates, invertebrates, and protozoans and contains 12 extinction events. The 12 events show a statistically significant periodicity (P less than 0.01) with a mean interval between events of 26 million years. Two of the events coincide with extinctions that have been previously linked to meteorite impacts (terminal Cretaceous and Late Eocene). Although the causes of the periodicity are unknown, it is possible that they are related to extraterrestrial forces (solar, solar system, or galactic).

Animals↗
PubMed1988

Extinction dynamics of age-structured populations in a fluctuating environment.

We model density-independent growth of an age- (or stage-) structured population, assuming that mortality and reproductive rates fluctuate as stationary time series. Analytical formulas are derived for the distribution of time to extinction and the cumulative probability of extinction before a certain time, which are determined by the initial age distribution, and by the infinitesimal mean and variance, mu and sigma 2, of a diffusion approximation for the logarithm of total population size. These parameters can be estimated from the average life history and the pattern of environmental fluctuations in the vital rates. We also show that the distribution of time to extinction (conditional on the event) depends on the magnitude but not the sign of mu. When the environmental fluctuations in vital rates are small or moderate, the diffusion approximation gives accurate estimates of cumulative extinction probabilities obtained from computer simulations.

Aging↗
PubMed1995

Forest losses predict bird extinctions in eastern North America.

Claims that there will be a massive loss of species as tropical forests are cleared are based on the relationship between habitat area and the number of species. Few studies calibrate extinction with habitat reduction. Critics raise doubts about this calibration, noting that there has been extensive clearing of the eastern North American forest, yet only 4 of its approximately 200 bird species have gone extinct. We analyze the distribution of bird species and the timing and extent of forest loss. The forest losses were not concurrent across the region. Based on the maximum extent of forest losses, our calculations predict fewer extinctions than the number observed. At most, there are 28 species of birds restricted to the region. Only these species would be at risk even if all the forests were cleared. Far from providing comfort to those who argue that the current rapid rate of tropical deforestation might cause fewer extinctions than often claimed, our results suggest that the losses may be worse. In contrast to eastern North America, small regions of tropical forest often hold hundreds of endemic bird species.

Journal Article↗
PubMed1997

Characteristics of winter and summer aerosol mass and light extinction on the Colorado plateau.

This paper focuses on the spatial variability of fine mass and extinction budgets taking data from the winter and summer months of 1992. The study area included southern California, southern Nevada, southern Utah, Arizona, and parts of New Mexico. Two types of monitoring sites were operated: intensive and secondary or satellite. At the intensive sites, all major aerosol species were measured as well as extinction or scattering. At the satellite sites, trace elements including sulfur and hydrogen, absorption, and gravimetric fine mass were measured. Where all aerosol species are measured, the spatial variability of extinction budgets is examined assuming an externally mixed aerosol. At the satellite sites, an approximated fine mass budget is derived and the variability of these budgets in space and time are examined. This effort was part of a study called Project MOHAVE (Measurement of Haze and Visual Effects) carried out with the principal objective of understanding the relative contribution of regional and local sources to visibility impairment on the Colorado Plateau and specifically, the Grand Canyon. Generally, the contribution of sulfates, organics, and absorption to extinction are about equal at 20-30% with the coarse mass fraction being about 10-20%. The one exception is in southern California where the nitrate contribution tends to be higher in the winter than summer. During the summer, concentration gradients tend to be spread out across the study area, while during the winter months, variability in concentration and budgets tends to occur on a smaller scale.

Aerosols↗
PubMed2005

Improved light extinction reconstruction in interagency monitoring of protected visual environments.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published the Regional Haze Rule (RHR) in 1999. The RHR default goal is to reduce haze linearly from the baseline period of 2000 through 2004 to natural background in 2064. EPA-recommended method for estimating baseline and natural haze uses the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) light extinction formula. The IMPROVE formula predicts light extinction from measured aerosol chemical concentrations and estimates of the relative humidity multiplier. On average, the IMPROVE formula overpredicts 6156 nephelometer days (24-hr average measured particle light scattering, bsp) of data by 25%. A new IMPROVED method that reconstructs light extinction using a concentration power law model overpredicts these nephelometer days of data by just 2%. Ignoring the 20% lowest light scattering days, this new IMPROVED formula has a 3% underprediction bias over the 4925 highest nephelometer days with light scattering > or =8 inverse megameters. For comparison, the IMPROVE formula has a 12% overprediction bias for the same days. The IMPROVE formula overprediction averages 77%, 27%, 17%, 9%, and -5% broken down by quintile from lowest to highest nephelometer measured light scattering days. The new IMPROVED formula average overprediction is 21%, -5%, -5%, -2%, and 0%. So, agreement between measured and predicted light scattering improves by modifying the current IMPROVE light extinction formula.

Air↗
PubMed2000

Laboratory investigation of the contribution of complex aromatic/aliphatic polycyclic hybrid molecular structures to interstellar ultraviolet extinction and infrared emission.

We have demonstrated by experiment that, in an energetic environment, a simple polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) such as naphthalene will undergo chemical reactions that produce a wide array of more complex species (an aggregate). For a stellar wind of a highly evolved star (post-asymptotic giant branch [post-AGB]), this process would be in addition to what is expected from reactions occurring under thermodynamic equilibrium. A surprising result of that work was that produced in substantial abundance are hydrogenated forms that are hybrids of polycyclic aromatic and polycyclic alkanes. Infrared spectroscopy described here reveals a spectral character for these materials that has much in common with that observed for the constituents of circumstellar clouds of post-AGB stars. It can be demonstrated that a methylene (-CH2-) substructure, as in cycloalkanes, is the likely carrier of the 6.9 microns band emission of dust that has recently been formed around IRAS 22272+5433, NGC 7027, and CPD -56 8032. Ultraviolet spectroscopy previously done with a lower limit of 190 nm had revealed that this molecular aggregate can contribute to the interstellar extinction feature at 2175 angstroms. We have now extended our UV spectroscopy of these materials to 110 nm by a vacuum ultraviolet technique. That work, described here, reveals new spectral characteristics and describes how material newly formed during the late stages of stellar evolution could have produced an extinction feature claimed to exist at 1700 angstroms in the spectrum of HD 145502 and also how the newly formed hydrocarbon material would be transformed/aged in the general interstellar environment. The contribution of this molecular aggregate to the rise in interstellar extinction at wavelengths below 1500 angstroms is also examined. The panspectral measurements of the materials produced in the laboratory, using plasmas of H, He, N, and O to convert the simple PAH naphthalene to an aggregate of complex species, provide insight into possible molecular structure details of newly formed hydrocarbon-rich interstellar dust and its transformation into aged material that becomes resident in the interstellar medium. Specifically the presence of naphthalene-like and butadiene-like conjugated structures as chromophores for the 2175 angstroms ultraviolet extinction feature is indicated.

Cosmic Dust↗
PubMed1999

Evolution of Dust Extinction and Supernova Cosmology.

We have made a quantitative calculation for the systematic evolution of the average extinction by interstellar dust in host galaxies of high-redshift Type Ia supernovae by using a realistic model of photometric and chemical evolution of galaxies and supernova rate histories in various galaxy types. We find that the average B-band extinction at z approximately 0.5 is typically 0.1-0.2 mag larger than the present value, under a natural assumption that dust optical depth is proportional to gas column density and gas metallicity. This systematic evolution causes average reddening with E(B-V&parr0; approximately 0.025-0.05 mag with the standard extinction curve, and this is comparable with the observational uncertainty of the reddening of high-redshift supernovae. Therefore, our result does not contradict the observations that show no significant reddening in high-z supernovae. However, the difference in apparent magnitude between an open universe and a Lambda-dominated flat universe is only approximately 0.2 mag at z approximately 0.5, and hence this systematic evolution of extinction should be taken into account in a reliable measurement of cosmological parameters. Considering this uncertainty, we show that it is difficult to discriminate between open and Lambda-dominated flat cosmologies from the current data.

Journal Article↗
PubMed1999

Left frontal transcranial magnetic stimulation reduces contralesional extinction in patients with unilateral right brain damage.

It has been demonstrated previously that transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) of the sensorimotor cortex can induce transient suppression of the perception of cutaneous near-threshold stimuli from fingers of the contralateral hand in normal individuals. One explanation accounting for deficits in the exploration of contralateral space following a unilateral hemispheric lesion refers to a loss of the normal interhemispheric balance, with a resultant hyperactivation of the unaffected hemisphere due to the release of reciprocal inhibition by the affected one. In order to verify this hypothesis, we investigated the effects of a TMS-induced transient dysfunction of the normal hemisphere upon contralateral tactile extinctions in two groups: (i) 14 right brain-damaged patients and (ii) 14 left brain-damaged control patients. Single-pulse TMS was delivered to frontal and parietal scalp sites of the unaffected hemisphere after an interval of 40 ms from an electrical unimanual or bimanual digit stimulation. In right brain-damaged patients, left frontal TMS significantly reduced the rate of contralateral extinctions compared with controls. After left parietal TMS, the number of extinctions was comparable to the baseline. This pattern of increased sensitivity to cutaneous stimulation ipsilateral to TMS was not observed in left brain-damaged control patients. In this group, right hemisphere TMS did not significantly alter the recognition of bimanual stimuli delivered to the space contralateral to the lesion. The suggestion is made that extinctions produced by right brain damage may be dependent on a breakdown in the balance of hemispheric rivalry in directing spatial attention to contralateral hemispace, so that the unaffected hemisphere generates an unopposed orienting response to the side of the lesion. The mechanisms whereby the left frontal TMS transiently ameliorates these deficits may involve stimulus-induced removal of a left frontal-right parietal transcallosal inhibitory flow, although interactions at subcortical levels cannot be excluded.

Aged↗
PubMed1992

Theoretical study of near neutrality. II. Effect of subdivided population structure with local extinction and recolonization.

There are several unsolved problems concerning the model of nearly neutral mutations. One is the interaction of subdivided population structure and weak selection that spatially fluctuates. The model of nearly neutral mutations whose selection coefficient spatially fluctuates has been studied by adopting the island model with periodic extinction-recolonization. Both the number of colonies and the migration rate play significant roles in determining mutants' behavior, and selection is ineffective when the extinction-recolonization is frequent with low migration rate. In summary, the number of mutant substitutions decreases and the polymorphism increases by increasing the total population size, and/or decreasing the extinction-recolonization rate. However, by increasing the total size of the population, the mutant substitution rate does not become as low when compared with that in panmictic populations, because of the extinction-recolonization, especially when the migration rate is limited. It is also found that the model satisfactorily explains the contrasting patterns of molecular polymorphisms observed in sibling species of Drosophila, including heterozygosity, proportion of polymorphism and fixation index.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Revised UV extinction coefficients for nucleoside-5'-monophosphates and unpaired DNA and RNA.

Ultraviolet absorption provides the nearly universal basis for determining concentrations of nucleic acids. Values for the UV extinction coefficients of DNA and RNA rely on the mononucleotide values determined 30-50 years ago. We show that nearly all of the previously published extinction coefficients for the nucleoside-5'-monophosphates are too large, and in error by as much as 7%. Concentrations based on complete hydrolysis and the older set of values are too low by approximately 4% for typical RNA and 2-3% for typical DNA samples. We also analyzed data in the literature for the extinction coefficients of unpaired DNA oligomers. Robust prediction of concentrations can be made using 38 microg/A260 unit for single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) having non-repetitive sequences and 40-80% GC. This is superior to currently used predictions that account for nearest-neighbor frequency or base composition. The latter result in concentrations that are 10-30% too low for typical ssDNA used as primers for PCR and other similar techniques. Methods are described here to accurately measure concentrations of nucleotides by nuclear magnetic resonance. NMR can be used to accurately determine concentrations (and extinction coefficients) of biomolecules within 1%.

Absorption↗
PubMed1995

Local extinction in a small and declining population: wild dogs in the Serengeti.

Altered assumptions about how different ecological factors limit population numbers may lead to different conclusions about the causes of decline and ultimate extinction of a small population. Here, alternative hypotheses for the local disappearance of the Serengeti plains study population of African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) are examined in light of observations of density dependence, deterministic decline and frequent rapid fluctuations in population number. After a population crash from 60 individuals in 1975 to 30 individuals in 1976, the Serengeti plains population fluctuated around a mean value of 22 individuals for 16 years before local extinction occurred. Variation in population numbers was extreme, with inter-annual reductions in population size of at least 40% occurring three times. Several explanations are consistent with the observed trends in population size including outbreaks of various epizootics and competition with other predators. Monte Carlo simulation, with parameters set to reflect observed fluctuations, demonstrate that population extinction was likely from chance factors alone. In small and declining populations, for which precise data and controls are unavailable, determining the cause(s) of extinction usually will be impossible.

Africa↗
PubMed1999

Anthropogenic extinction of top carnivores and interspecific animal behaviour: implications of the rapid decoupling of a web involving wolves, bears, moose and ravens.

The recent extinction of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and wolves (Canis lupus) by humans from 95-99% of the contiguous USA and Mexico in less than 100 years has resulted in dramatically altered and expanded prey communities. Such rampant ecological change and putative ecological instability has not occurred in North American northern boreal zones. This geographical variation in the loss of large carnivores as a consequence of anthropogenic disturbance offers opportunities for examining the potential consequences of extinction on subtle but important ecological patterns involving behaviour and interspecific ecological interactions. In Alaska, where scavengers and large carnivores are associated with carcasses, field experiments involving sound playback simulations have demonstrated that at least one prey species, moose (Alces alces), is sensitive to the vocalizations of ravens (Corvus corax) and may rely on their cues to avoid predation. However, a similar relationship is absent on a predator-free island in Alaska's Cook Inlet and at two sites in the Jackson Hole region of the Rocky Mountains (USA) where grizzly bears and wolves have been extinct for 50-70 years. While prior study of birds and mammals has demonstrated that prey may retain predator recognition capabilities for thousands of years even after predation as a selective force has been relaxed, the results presented here establish that a desensitization in interspecific responsiveness can also occur in less than ten generations. These results affirm (i) a rapid decoupling in behaviour involving prey and scavengers as a consequence of anthropogenic-caused predator-prey disequilibriums, and (ii) subtle, community-level modifications in terrestrial ecosystems where large carnivores no longer exist. If knowledge about ecological and behavioural processes in extant systems is to be enhanced, the potential effects of recently extinct carnivores must be incorporated into current programmes.

Animals↗
PubMed2000

Correlations in fossil extinction and origination rates through geological time.

Recent analyses have suggested that extinction and origination rates exhibit long-range correlations, implying that the fossil record may be controlled by self-organized criticality or other scale-free internal dynamics of the biosphere. Here we directly test for correlations in the fossil record by calculating the autocorrelation of extinction [corrected] and origination rates through time. Our results show that extinction rates are uncorrelated beyond the average duration of a stratigraphic interval. Thus, they lack the long-range correlations predicted by the self-organized criticality hypothesis. In contrast, origination rates show strong autocorrelations due to long-term trends. After detrending, origination rates generally show weak positive correlations at lags of 5-10 million years (Myr) and weak negative correlations at lags of 10-30 Myr, consistent with aperiodic oscillations around their long-term trends. We hypothesize that origination rates are more correlated than extinction rates because originations of new taxa create new ecological niches and new evolutionary pathways for reaching them, thus creating conditions that favour further diversification.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

Prehistoric bird extinctions and human hunting.

Holocene fossils document the extinction of hundreds of bird species on Pacific islands during prehistoric human occupation. Human hunting is implicated in these extinctions, but the impact of hunting is difficult to disentangle from the effects of other changes induced by humans, including habitat destruction and the introduction of other mammalian predators. Here, we use data from bones collected at a natural sand dune site and associated archaeological middens in New Zealand to show that, having controlled for differences in body mass and family membership (and hence for variation in life-history traits related to population growth rate), birds that were more intensively hunted by prehistoric humans had a higher probability of extinction. This result cannot be attributed to preservation biases and provides clear evidence that selective hunting contributed significantly to prehistoric bird extinctions at this site.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

Dynamics of extinction and the selection of nature reserves.

Familiar quantitative reserve-selection techniques are tailored to simple decision problems, where the representation of species is sought at minimum cost. However, conservationists have begun to ask whether representing species in reserve networks is sufficient to avoid local extinctions within selected areas. An attractive, but previously untested idea is to model current species' probabilities of occurrence as an estimate of local persistence in the near future. Using distribution data for passerine birds in Great Britain, we show that (i) species' probabilities of occurrence are negatively related to local probabilities of extinction, at least when a particular 20-year period is considered, and (ii) local extinctions can be reduced if areas are selected to maximize current species' probabilities of occurrence We suggest that more extinctions could be avoided if even a simple treatment of persistence were to be incorporated within reserve selection methods.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Extinction processes in hot spots of avian biodiversity and the targeting of pre-emptive conservation action.

Hot spots of endemism are regarded as important global sites for conservation as they are rich in threatened endemic species and currently experiencing extensive habitat loss. Targeting pre-emptive conservation action to sites that are currently relatively intact but which would be vulnerable to particular human activities if they occurred in the future is, however, also valuable but has received less attention. Here, we address this issue by using data on Endemic Bird Areas (EBAs). First, we identify the ecological factors that affect extinction risk in the face of particular human activities, and then use these insights to identify EBAs that should be priorities for pre-emptive conservation action. Threatened endemic species in EBAs are significantly more likely to be habitat specialists or relatively large-bodied than non-threatened species, when compared across avian families. Increasing habitat loss causes a significant increase in extinction risk among habitat specialists, but we found no evidence to suggest that the presence of alien species/human exploitation causes a significant increase in extinction risk among large-bodied species. This suggests that these particular human activities are contributing to high extinction risk among habitat specialists, but not among large-bodied species. Based on these analyses, we identify 39 EBAs containing 570 species (24% of the total in EBAs) that are not currently threatened with severe habitat loss, but would be ecologically vulnerable to future habitat loss should it occur. We show that these sites tend to be poorly represented in existing priority setting exercises involving hot spots, suggesting that vulnerability must be explicitly included within these exercises if such sites are to be adequately protected.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Sexual selection and the risk of extinction in mammals.

Sexual selection is commonly envisaged as a force working in opposition to natural selection, because extravagant or exaggerated traits could apparently have never evolved via natural selection alone. There is good evidence that a selection load imposed by sexual selection may be eased experimentally by restricting the opportunity for it to operate. Sexual selection could therefore potentially play an important role in influencing the risk of extinction that a population faces, thereby contributing to the apparent selectivity of extinctions. Conversely, recent theory predicts that the likelihood of extinction may decrease when sexual selection is operating because it could accelerate the rate of adaptation in concert with natural selection. So far, comparative evidence (coming mostly from birds) has generally indicated support for the former scenario, but the question remains open. The aim of this study was therefore to examine whether the level of sexual selection (measured as residual testes mass and sexual size dimorphism) was related to the risk of extinction that mammals are currently experiencing. We found no evidence for a relationship between these factors, although our analyses may have been confounded by the possible dominating effect of contemporary anthropogenic factors.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Tolerance of pollination networks to species extinctions.

Mutually beneficial interactions between flowering plants and animal pollinators represent a critical 'ecosystem service' under threat of anthropogenic extinction. We explored probable patterns of extinction in two large networks of plants and flower visitors by simulating the removal of pollinators and consequent loss of the plants that depend upon them for reproduction. For each network, we removed pollinators at random, systematically from least-linked (most specialized) to most-linked (most generalized), and systematically from most- to least-linked. Plant species diversity declined most rapidly with preferential removal of the most-linked pollinators, but declines were no worse than linear. This relative tolerance to extinction derives from redundancy in pollinators per plant and from nested topology of the networks. Tolerance in pollination networks contrasts with catastrophic declines reported from standard food webs. The discrepancy may be a result of the method used: previous studies removed species from multiple trophic levels based only on their linkage, whereas our preferential removal of pollinators reflects their greater risk of extinction relative to that of plants. In both pollination networks, the most-linked pollinators were bumble-bees and some solitary bees. These animals should receive special attention in efforts to conserve temperate pollination systems.

Animals↗