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Hereditary colorectal cancer: clinical consequences of predictive molecular testing.

The continuing increase in knowledge about the genetic basis of carcinogenesis has led to diverse efforts to exploit this knowledge clinically, primarily in the form of predictive genetic testing. In conjunction with family history, gene tests are intended to improve individual cancer risk assessment. The objectives of predictive molecular testing are to identify the disease-causing germline mutation in an index person who has already developed the disease and to distinguish asymptomatic mutation carriers from non-mutation carriers within a given cancer-prone family. At present, genetic testing for colorectal cancer risk, primarily in form of DNA sequencing, is applied in familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) and hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC). In these inherited colorectal tumor syndromes determining the genetic status may result in an individually tailored surveillance program and prophylactic treatment. The implications of genetic testing for the clinical management of disease, both of mutation and non-mutation carriers, in familial adenomatous polyposis and hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer families are discussed.

Adenomatous Polyposis Coli↗

Correlations between validation and definitive study results for genotoxic compounds.

The use of batteries of predictive tests, perhaps in lieu of costly definitive testing, requires thoughtful identification of individual assays and definition of test batteries and tiers. Generally predictive assays are appraised in a validation study which uses a number of compounds known to be positive (or negative) in the definitive assay. A predictive test meeting specified criteria of specificity (proportion of true positives detected) and sensitivity (proportion of true negatives detected) is then eligible for use in screening compounds of unknown potency. We formally derive the definitions of prevalence (proportion of true positives in a sample of N compounds), sensitivity, and specificity, and show that these arise from different multinomial distributions for validation and screening studies. The formal statistical correlations between the predictive tier and the definitive tier are derived for both types of studies. Correlations show that a predictive assay which is eliminated in a validation study because of low sensitivity or specificity may perform satisfactorily when used for screening. Conversely, a predictive assay which performs well in a validation study may have a poor correlation with definitive assay results when used for screening.

Animals↗

A maximal multistage 20-m shuttle run test to predict VO2 max.

In order to validate a maximal multistage 20-m shuttle run test for the prediction of VO2 max, 91 adults (32 females and 59 males, aged 27.3 +/- 9.2 and 24.8 +/- 5.5 year respectively and with mean VO2 max (+/- SD) of 39.3 +/- 8.3 and 51.6 +/- 7.8 ml . kg-1 . min-1 respectively) performed the test and had VO2 max estimated by the retroextrapolation method (extrapolation to time zero of recovery of the exponential least squares regression of the first four 20-s recovery VO2 values). Starting at 8 km . h-1 and increasing by 0.5 km . h-1 every 2 min, the 20-m shuttle run test enabled prediction of the VO2 max (y, ml . kg-1 . min-1) from the maximal speed (x, km . h-1) by means of the following regression equation: y = 5.857x - 19.458; r = 0.84 and SEE = 5.4. Later, the multistage protocol was slightly modified to its final version, in which the test started at stage 7 Met and continued with a 1 Met (3.5 ml O2 . kg-1 . min-1) increment every 2 min. Twenty-five of the 91 subjects performed the 20-m shuttle test twice, once on a hard, low-friction surface (vinyl-asbestos tiles) and another time on a rubber floor, as well as a walking maximal multistage test on an inclined treadmill. There was no difference between the means of these tests or between the slopes of the VO2max - maximal speed regressions for the two types of surfaces. The 20-m shuttle run test and another maximal multistage field test involving continuous track running gave comparable results (r = 0.92, SEE = 2.6 ml O2 . kg-1 . min-1, n = 70). Finally, test and retest of the 20-m shuttle run test also yielded comparable results (r = 0.975, SEE = 2.0 ml O2 . kg-1 . min-1, n = 50). It is concluded that the 20-m shuttle run test is valid and reliable test for the prediction of the VO2 max of male and female adults, individually or in groups, on most gymnasium surfaces.

Adult↗

Idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus: the CSF tap-test may predict the clinical response to shunting.

A follow-up study was performed in nine patients with idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH) 37 months (mean) after shunting and 10 non-operated controls with comparable degrees of ventricular enlargement, gait disorder, and dementia. Five operated patients vs. no controls reported sustained general improvement (p < 0.02). Objectively improved gait at follow-up (compared with preoperative status) was found in five of the six tested NPH-patients vs. none of the controls (p < 0.005). Improved gait and/or psychometric function was found in four of six NPH vs. none of eight control patients (p < 0.02) after drainage of 40 ml cerebrospinal fluid (CSF tap-test). Improved gait during the CSF tap-test predicted continued improvement at follow-up. Temporal horn size was the only radiological variable which showed a (moderate) positive correlation with resistance to CSF absorption and rate of pressure increase. The size of the third ventricle diminished in parallel with clinical improvement.

Adult↗

Simultaneous hermaphrodites reproducing in pairs self-fertilize some of their eggs: an experimental test of predictions of mixed-mating and Hermaphrodite's Dilemma theory.

Theory predicts (1) that mixed-mating systems (i.e. reproduction through both selfing and outcrossing) should usually not evolve and (2) that reproducing simultaneous hermaphrodites should be in a conflict over the preferred sexual role (The Hermaphrodite's Dilemma). In an in vitro system with the endoparasitic cestode Schistocephalus solidus, a simultaneous hermaphrodite, we tested predictions of both the mixed-mating and the Hermaphrodite's Dilemma theory. Using microsatellite markers, we measured the proportion of selfed offspring and the total reproductive output of each worm within pairs varying in mean weight and weight difference. Worms produced more outbred offspring not only with increasing total weight of the pair, but also with decreasing weight difference between the two paired worms. These results suggest: (1) that this parasite species reproduces by mixed-mating, which may be maintained by stochastic density fluctuations in the definitive host and hence unpredictability of self reproduction and (2) reproductive conflict may prevent worm pairs from achieving an optimal intermediate selfing rate.

Animals↗

Value of programmed stimulation and exercise testing in predicting one-year mortality after acute myocardial infarction.

The ability of programmed ventricular stimulation and exercise testing to predict 1-year mortality after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) was investigated in 228 clinically well survivors of AMI. Patients with inducible ventricular tachycardia (VT) or ventricular fibrillation (VF) had a higher mortality rate than those without inducible arrhythmias (26% vs 6%, p less than 0.001). Exercise-induced ST-segment change of 2 mm or more was associated with a higher mortality rate than ST change of less than 2 mm (11% vs 4%, 0.05 less p less than 0.10). Of patients who had both tests, 62% had no inducible ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation and ST change of less than 2 mm, and only 1% died during the first year. Thus, in clinically well survivors of AMI, programmed stimulation is a powerful predictor of first-year mortality; programmed stimulation and exercise testing together predict virtually all deaths within the first year, and they can identify a large group of patients with a very low mortality rate.

Adult↗

The intravenous ketamine test: a predictive response tool for oral dextromethorphan treatment in neuropathic pain.

IV infusion tests performed to predict subsequent response to oral analgesics are an increasingly popular method used to enhance medical care and conserve resources. Because no infusion test is completely accurate, the potential benefits of these tests must be weighed against the frustration and waste in resources encountered with false-positive results, and the failure to use a potentially beneficial treatment with false-negative results. In recent years, drugs that act antagonistically at N-methyl-d-aspartate receptors have been shown to be valuable adjuncts in the treatment of pain. To determine the predictive value of small-dose (0.1 mg/kg) IV ketamine on an oral dextromethorphan (DX) treatment regimen, we analyzed the analgesic response to these drugs in 25 patients at 2 tertiary care military treatment facilities, institutions at which DX is not readily accessible. When >/=50% response for both drugs was used as the outcome measure for success, the positive predictive value of the ketamine test was 64%, the negative predictive value 73%, and the observed agreement 68%. However, when >/=67% relief with ketamine was used as an outcome measure (as determined by a receiver operating characteristic curve), the positive predictive value was 90%, the negative predictive value 80%, and the observed agreement increased to 84%. Based on these results, we conclude that an IV ketamine test may be useful in predicting response to oral DX. More research is needed to determine the ideal candidates for such a test, and the optimal dose and cutoff value for the response to ketamine.

Administration, Oral↗

A synthetic validity approach to testing differential prediction hypotheses.

A new method is presented for conducting differential prediction analyses that makes it possible to test differential prediction hypotheses with adequate statistical power even when the sample size within a job or a job family is very small. This method, called synthetic differential prediction analysis, represents an application of the logic of synthetic validation to differential prediction analyses. The authors explain this new method and describe its application in a selection-system validation study conducted in a large organization.

Decision Making↗

Predictive genetic testing: mediators and moderators of anxiety.

Mediators and moderators of anxiety following predictive genetic testing were investigated in a cross-sectional study of 208 individuals at risk for familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP). Receiving a positive test result was associated with increased anxiety. The relationship between test result and anxiety was mediated by how threatened individuals felt by their test results. The impact of a positive test result was greater for those who felt distressed about FAP in their families, perceived FAP to be more serious, and perceived the genetic test to be more accurate. The results suggest that assessing, and possibly modifying, people's appraisals of the condition and of its impact on the family and of the threat of the genetic test may help to reduce subsequent anxiety. This has implications for the practice of genetic counseling.

Adolescent↗

Evaluation of an on-farm blood progesterone test for predicting the day of parturition in cattle.

An on-farm blood progesterone enzymeimmunoassay (EIA) was evaluated as a diagnostic test to predict the time of calving within a 24-hour period in near-term dairy cows. Blood samples were taken daily from 45 cows beginning 5 days prior to their expected due dates until calving, and plasma was stored at -20 degrees C until all cows had calved. The EIA test was performed on frozen-thawed plasma samples, and progesterone concentrations were determined to be low (positive test for calving within 24 hours) or high (negative test for calving within 24 hours). Sensitivity, specificity and predictive value of the EIA to accurately determine parturition within 24 hours were 86.7, 90.8 and 75.0%, respectively. The EIA correctly predicted the day of parturition in 168 of 187 (89.8%) plasma samples. Ten additional cows were similarly monitored except the EIA was performed on whole blood immediately after collection, and the sensitivity, specificity and predictive value of the test were 80.0, 97.6 and 88.9%, respectively. The day of parturition was correctly predicted in 49 of 52 (94.2%) whole blood samples. More than 95% of the cows calved within 24 hours when their plasma progesterone reached < 1.3 ng/ml. When results of the EIA were compared with those of a radioimmunoassay (RIA), the EIA findings were used to correctly classify 190 of 232 (81.9%) plasma samples as having low (< 2.0 ng/ml) or high (>/= 2.0 ng/ml) concentrations of progesterone. The EIA test was found to be a quick, practical means of estimating progesterone concentrations in bovine plasma or whole blood and was a useful test for predicting the day of parturition in cows.

Journal Article↗

Caffeine test in predicting flutamide-induced hepatic injury in patients with prostate cancer.

The caffeine test measures the activity of cytochrome p450 (CYP1A2) which is a major enzyme involved in the activation of flutamide. The usefulness of this test in predicting flutamide-induced hepatic injury in patients with prostate cancer was examined. The subjects were: (1). five patients whose aspartate aminotransferase (AST) or alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level rose to 100 IU/l or higher following the start of flutamide (moderately injured group); (2). four patients whose AST and ALT levels were higher than normal but less than 100 IU/l (mildly injured group); and (3). two patients whose hepatic function remained normal (normal group). The subjects were each given canned coffee to drink. Urinary caffeine (137X), paraxanthine (17X) and 1, 7-dimethyluric acid (17U) levels were measured 4-5 h later. The metabolite ratio, (17U+17X)/137X, was calculated to serve as an indicator of CYP1A2 activity. The metabolite ratio for the moderately injured group (3.98+/-1.56) and the mildly injured group (5.55+/-1.42) were lower than that for the normal group (9.56). The results suggest that a decrease in CYP1A2 activity is involved in the onset of flutamide-induced hepatic injury, and that the caffeine test seems to provide a useful means of its prediction.

Aged↗

Doppler measurement of cerebral and lower limb flow during a lower body negative pressure test for predicting orthostatic intolerance.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the cardiovascular response to an orthostatic test for predicting orthostatic intolerance. METHODS: Cerebral and lower limb arterial flow and resistance were assessed by Doppler ultrasonography during lower body negative pressure (7 minutes each at -25 and -45 mm Hg). Cardiovascular deconditioning was induced by 42 days in head-down tilt at -6 degress (7 subjects) and 6-month spaceflights (10 cosmonauts). RESULTS: Orthostatic intolerance during a stand test was observed in 57% of the head-down-tilt subjects and 83% of the cosmonauts. At the lower body negative pressure after head-down tilt and during or after flight, the average cerebral flow velocity and vascular resistance did not change significantly from before head-down tilt and before flight. Conversely, there was a lack of lower limb arterial vasoconstriction (-24% from before head-down tilt and -43% from before flight; P < .01), and the cerebral-femoral flow ratio increased less (-27% from before head-down tilt and -52% from before flight; P < .01). The lack of vasoconstriction was more pronounced in intolerant subjects (-25% from before head-down tilt and -48% from before flight) compared with tolerant subjects (-22% from before head-down tilt and -14% from before flight; P > .01). Also, the lack of a cerebral-femoral flow ratio increase was more pronounced in intolerant subjects (-49% from before head-down tilt and -55% from before flight; P < .01) than in tolerant subjects (-1% from before head-down tilt and -33% from before flight; P < .01). The cerebral flow deficit at the lower body negative pressure before head-down tilt was greater than 8% in 3 of the 4 intolerant head-down-tilt subjects and less than 8% in the 3 tolerant subjects. The 3 cosmonauts who were intolerant after flight had a preflight cerebral flow deficit greater than 8%, whereas the tolerant cosmonaut had a cerebral flow deficit less than 8%. CONCLUSION: Lack of lower limb vasoconstriction and a lower cerebral-femoral flow ratio during lower body negative pressure in disadapted subjects were associated with orthostatic intolerance. A cerebral flow deficit during lower body negative pressure before disadaptation allowed measurement of the predisposition of the subjects to become intolerant.

Blood Pressure↗

The value of a single sensitive urine pregnancy test in prediction of pregnancy outcome.

A simple and reliable indicator for pregnancy outcome will be valuable clinically for patient management and for counselling women whose pregnancies are results of subfertility treatment. This study aimed at evaluating the ICON II test, a simple semiquantitative sensitive urine pregnancy test, in predicting pregnancy outcome in women who conceived after various forms of subfertility treatment. The ICON II test was performed on day 20 after the ovulating dose of hCG administration or spontaneous LH surge. One hundred and forty-five consecutive pregnancies were studied, 99 being viable and 46 nonviable which included subclinical abortion, clinical abortion and ectopic pregnancies. There was a significant difference in the luteal serum progesterone and hCG levels between viable and nonviable pregnancies. There was also a significant difference in the ICON II test result, i.e. either weakly positive (hCG of 25-50 IU/l) and positive (hCG > 50 IU/l) and the pregnancy outcome (p < 0.0001). The specificity of a weakly positive ICON II test in predicting poor pregnancy outcome was 98.8% whereas the sensitivity was 28.6%. In conclusion, a weakly positive ICON II test is useful in predicting poor pregnancy outcome.

Adult↗

When and why do people avoid unknown probabilities in decisions under uncertainty? Testing some predictions from optimal foraging theory.

When given a choice between two otherwise equivalent options - one in which the probability information is stated and another in which it is missing - most people avoid the option with missing probability information (Camerer & Weber, 1992). This robust, frequently replicated tendency is known as the ambiguity effect. It is unclear, however, why the ambiguity effect occurs. Experiments 1 and 2, which separated effects of the comparison process from those related to missing probability information, demonstrate that the ambiguity effect is elicited by missing probabilities rather than by comparison of options. Experiments 3 and 4 test predictions drawn from the literature on behavioral ecology. It is suggested that choices between two options should reflect three parameters: (1) the need of the organism, (2) the mean expected outcome of each option; and (3) the variance associated with each option's outcome. It is hypothesized that unknown probabilities are avoided because they co-occur with high outcome variability. In Experiment 3 it was found that subjects systematically avoid options with high outcome variability regardless of whether probabilities are explicitly stated or not. In Experiment 4, we reversed the ambiguity effect: when participants' need was greater than the known option's expected mean outcome, subjects preferred the ambiguous (high variance) option. From these experiments we conclude that people do not generally avoid ambiguous options. Instead, they take into account expected outcome, outcome variability, and their need in order to arrive at a decision that is most likely to satisfy this need.

Adult↗

Value and limitations of exercise stress testing to predict the functional results of coronary artery bypass grafting.

To assess the value of exercise stress testing to predict the functional result of revascularization, 90 patients were evaluated by coronary angiography and exercise testing pre and postoperatively. Patients were classified on the basis of the postoperative angiogram in a group with successful surgery and a group with unsuccessful surgery. The predictive accuracy positive of ST segment depression to detect unsuccessful surgery was 67% The predictive accuracy negative was 61%. The best predictor of unsuccessful surgery was residual angina pectoris after revascularization with predictive value positive and negative of 85% and 60%, respectively. Thus exercise stress testing has limited value to accurately predict the degree of revascularization.

Adult↗

Sensitivity and specificity of prick and intradermal testing in predicting response to nasal provocation with timothy grass antigen.

OBJECTIVE: Examine the efficacy of epicutaneous and intradermal testing in predicting response to nasal provocation with timothy antigen. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective study. Subjects were tested with Multi-Test II (MT). Subjects with negative wheals were tested with a 1:500 intradermal injection of timothy. They had baseline assessment of nasal cross-sectional area (CSA) using acoustic rhinometry and underwent nasal provocation with increasing timothy concentrations. CSA was assessed and nasal visual analog scale (VAS) completed with each concentration. RESULTS: Sensitivity and specificity of MT in predicting nasal response to provocation were 87% and 86%. Intradermal testing increased sensitivity to 93%. Hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) demonstrated that subjects positive to skin testing had significant reductions in CSA and worsening VAS scores with increasing concentrations of nasally delivered antigen. CONCLUSION AND SIGNIFICANCE: Epicutaneous testing with the Multi-Test II offers 87% sensitivity and 86% specificity in assessing timothy grass reactivity.

Adult↗

Parents' responses to predictive genetic testing in their children: report of a single case study.

There is a widely held view among health professionals that predictive genetic testing of children for late onset diseases is not desirable clinical practice. Yet, little is known about the views of parents, or their responses, to predictive genetic testing in their children. Since such testing is being carried out in some genetic centres, the opportunity was taken to conduct a single case study of the parents of 2 and 4 year old sisters who were tested for the gene for familial adenomatous polyposis. Interviews before testing, after, and 15 months later showed a stable attitude, that parental responsibility included making decisions about such testing, and that the role of health professionals should be one of information giving rather than decision making. These parents had no regrets about having their children tested and reported no changes in their behaviour towards either the child who tested positively or the child who tested negatively. Using standardised scales, mood was found to be within the normal range both before and after testing in the mother and father. This case study is a first step towards systematic empirical studies determining the consequences of acquiescing to parents' requests for genetic testing in their children.

Adenomatous Polyposis Coli↗

The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) predicts alcohol withdrawal symptoms during inpatient detoxification.

We evaluated whether the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) predicted clinically meaningful alcohol withdrawal syndrome (AWS) in 118 alcohol dependent patients without a history of seizures. Patients were monitored by serial administration of the revised Clinical Institute Withdrawal Assessment Scale for Alcohol (CIWA-Ar) during inpatient detoxification. Patients (N = 55) who reached threshold level of AWS for receiving medication (CIWA-Ar > 9) scored significantly higher (p <.001) on the AUDIT total score, the dependence sub-scale, and the single item on morning drinking. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive power, and screening efficiency showed the value of the AUDIT for identifying patients who developed AWS. The AUDIT should be explored alone and in combination with other parameters to improve screening for clinically meaningful AWS in other settings.

Alcohol Withdrawal Seizures↗