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At least 685 records · Page 38Linked to original sources
PubMed1994

The impact of demographic change on tax revenue.

"This paper [simulates] the impact of demographic change on direct tax revenue for the Netherlands using extensive survey data and population projections. Projected demographic development in the Netherlands fits in well with the OECD mainstream. The analysis thus has a more general relevance. The simulations indicate a 27 percent rise in tax revenue until 2010 because of population growth and a relatively older labor force. After 2030, revenue falls as a consequence of a declining population and a rapidly rising share of the elderly. The authors also simulated a variant in which labor-force participation rates are set on the substantially higher OECD average. In this case, the increase in tax revenue almost doubles as compared to the base variant."

Demography↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Future trends in international migration.

The author evaluates projections by the World Bank that show a significant decline in international migration over the next decade. "This projection not only assumes a narrowing of the welfare gap between industrialised and developing countries. It also sets out from the premise that potential migrants react to changes in the economic and social conditions in their home countries with more or less constant (negative) migration elasticities. The following article shows that there is reason to question the validity of this assumption."

Demography↗
PubMed1996

Ethnographic perspectives on the enumertion of aboriginal people in remote Australia.

"This paper compares population counts and age distributions from the last two Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) enumerations of the Aboriginal population of Aurukun, Cape York Peninsula, with the results of detailed ethnographic surveys of the same population at similar points in time. This reveals substantially lower numbers for the ABS counts, particularly of young adults and children. Reasons for this discrepancy are sought in the ethnographic realities of remote indigenous communities and an alternative methodology for Aboriginal enumeration in remote regions is suggested."

Age Distribution↗
PubMed1997

Problems and solutions in forecasting geographical populations.

"This paper asks the question: How does the multistate population model need to be adjusted to provide forecasts of geographical populations? Following an exposition of the standard model, possible solutions to the problems posed by excessive number of parameters are discussed. Decomposition, aggregation and parameterization are described, drawing on some new results. Issues in the temporal forecasting of model components are outlined and the alternative approach of using a spatial interaction model is considered. The paper concludes by arguing that the design of forecasting models is a powerful learning device for both designers and users."

Forecasting↗
PubMed1989

Does Australia's low fertility matter?

The author discusses the future effects of below-replacement fertility in Australia. "Continued below-replacement fertility would lead to a smaller maximum population, followed by population decline and an even older age structure. This paper argues that there is no need to increase the population and that a more mature age structure promises a number of benefits. Population growth imposes further costs on the already stressed natural environment and on the cities, and no economic benefits clearly offset these costs." Government policy to promote migration into Australia as a means of encouraging population growth is compared to the possible impact of a pronatalist policy. The author argues that social policies designed to reduce hardships faced by mothers are inherently desirable even if their demographic effects are uncertain.

Australia↗
PubMed1989

Covariates of divorce in Australia: an analysis using proportional hazard models.

"This paper utilizes data from the 1986 Family Formation Survey of the ABS [Australian Bureau of Statistics] to examine the incidence and correlates of divorce among real cohorts of Australian women with specific characteristics. It is shown that marriage cohort, age at marriage, country of birth, area of residence, age left school and fertility status at marriage are related to the risk of divorce. The results of the present investigation complement findings of other studies on divorce in Australia as well as hazard model based studies from the U.S.A., Canada, and New Zealand."

Age Factors↗
PubMed1990

The estimation of small town Aboriginal population change.

"This paper outlines some of the methodological and conceptual issues associated with the estimation of Aboriginal population change in the rapidly growing town of Katherine, in the Northern Territory [of Australia], and reports on selected social and economic impacts of recent in-migration. Attention is drawn to the inappropriateness of de facto population figures as a basis for planning and the need to estimate service requirements in the context of high population mobility."

Australia↗
PubMed1990

The uses and users of population projections in Australia.

"It is widely recognized that population projections are increasingly used in formulating policy in many public and private sectors. However, little information exists on the nature of the projections or their users. This paper reports the results of a survey conducted to rectify this situation. The results confirm that the applications of projections are very broad and that the prime area of increase has been in small-area projections. At this level many users make their own projections rather than use official projections and the paper reviews the methodology used to make these projections. A number of suggestions are made for improving communication between national and subnational producers and local users." The geographical focus is on Australia.

Australia↗
PubMed1992

The ABS population projections: overview and evaluation.

"This paper provides a brief history of the ABS [Australian Bureau of Statistics] projection [service] in the context of its role as the central statistical agency in Australia. It also presents an overview of the methodology used for generating the projections and details the procedures used for compiling the various components of change incorporated in the projections. The accuracy of the ABS past projections is assessed by comparing their results, both at the national and state/territory levels, with corresponding estimated resident population figures. The paper also describes the range of projection services currently provided by the ABS, lists present unmet needs and indicates some of the developments likely to occur in the future in satisfying unmet demand, consolidation of existing services and dissemination of output." The evaluation concerns the period from 1978 to the present.

Australia↗
PubMed1992

The Victorian population projection framework.

"The Victorian Department of the Treasury has responsibility for preparation of demographic forecasts for use by state government departments and agencies. This paper provides a detailed description of the projection system and models developed by Treasury to produce population and household forecasts for the state, statistical divisions and Statistical Local Areas of Victoria [Australia]. Particular emphasis is given to use of a 'tops down' approach to integrate projections at different geographic levels, methods of reconciling forecasts of household growth with land supply and techniques used to project the inter-SLA migration flows in a multi-regional cohort-component framework."

Agriculture↗
PubMed1992

Projections of households and household populations by household size propensities.

"This paper describes a method for constructing projections of numbers of households of various types and the numbers of people in that structure. The method uses the concept of household size propensity.... Using data from the 1981 and 1986 Censuses and population projections to the year 2011, the method produces projections of Australian households and household populations by size of household for five-year intervals from 1991 to 2011."

Age Factors↗
PubMed1992

Labour market forecasting in Australia: the science of the art.

"This article, which is written for the non-economist, overviews recent attempts at labour market forecasting in Australia and summarizes contemporary views on their contribution towards enhancing the efficiency of the Australian labour market. Current methods of forecasting are described and assessed purely from a theoretical perspective. The paper does not attempt to assess the accuracy or otherwise of Australian labour market forecasts...."

Australia↗