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PubMed1993

Stable microbubble test for predicting the risk of respiratory distress syndrome: I. Comparisons with other predictors of fetal lung maturity in amniotic fluid.

With the advent of surfactant replacement therapy, there is an increasing need for a rapid test of predicting the development of respiratory distress syndrome (RDS). We evaluated the clinical usefulness of the stable microbubble (SM) test in predicting the development of RDS by comparison with other tests in amniotic fluid samples obtained within 12 h before delivery from 40 pregnancies between 23-35 weeks of gestation. These tests included the lecithin/sphingomyelin (L/S) ratio, disaturated phosphatidylcholine/sphingomyelin (DSPC/S) ratio, concentrations of lecithin, DSPC, and surfactant-associated proteins A and B, C (SP-A, SP-B,C). The cut-off value of each test for predicting RDS was determined at a point of maximum diagnostic accuracy. The overall diagnostic accuracy of the SM test was similar to that of other tests. However, both the SM test and the SP-B,C concentration had positive predictive values of 100%. We conclude that the rapid (< 10 min) and reliable information obtained by this test should encourage its use in defining a population of neonates with surfactant deficiency in a multicentre trial of prophylactic surfactant therapy.

Amniotic Fluid↗
PubMed2002

Test day and lactation yield predictions in Italian simmental cows by ARMA methods.

Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, originally developed in the contest of time series analysis, were used to predict Test Day (TD) yields of milk production traits in dairy cows. ARMA models areable to take into account both the average lactation curve of homogeneous groups of animals and the residual individual variability that may be explained in terms of probability models, such as Autoregressive (AR) and Moving Average (MA) processes. Milk, fat, and protein yields of 6000 Italian Simmental cows with 8 TD records per lactation were analyzed. Data were grouped according to parity (1st, 2nd, and 3rd calving) and fitted to a Box-Jenkins ARMA model in order to predict TD yields in five situations of incomplete lactations. Reasonable accuracies have been obtained for a limited horizon of prediction: average correlations among actual and predicted data were 0.85, 0.72, and 0.80 for milk, fat and protein yields when the first predicted TD was one step ahead (on average 42d) of the last actual record available. Cumulative 305-d yields were calculated using all actual (actual yields) or actual plus forecasted (estimated yields) daily yields. Accuracy of lactation predictions was remarkable even when only a few actual TD records were available, with values of 0.88 for milk and protein and 0.84 for fat for the correlations between actual and estimated yields when 6 out of 8 TD records were predicted. Accuracy rapidly increases with the number of actual TD available: correlations were about 0.96 for milk and protein and 0.93 for fat when 4 out of 8 TD records were predicted. In comparison with other prediction methods, ARMA modelsare very simple and can be easily implemented in data recording software, even at the farm level.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Can biological tests assist prediction of suicide in mood disorders?

Predicting suicide is difficult due to its low base-rate and the limited specificity of clinical predictors. Prospective biological studies suggest that dysfunctions in the serotonergic system and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis have some predictive power for completed suicide in mood disorders. A prediction model that incorporates biological testing to increase specificity and sensitivity of prediction of suicide is of potential clinical value. Meta-analyses of prospective biological studies of suicide and cerebrospinal fluid 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid (CSF 5-HIAA) and suicide and the dexamethasone suppression test (DST) in mood disorders using the penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL) and bootstrap method yield odds ratios for prediction of suicide of 4.48 and 4.65 respectively. Two combinatory prediction models, the first requiring positive results on more than one test, and the second requiring a positive result on either one of two tests, were tested to assess their sensitivity, specificity, and predictive power using biological data from published and unpublished studies. The prediction model that requires both DST and CSF 5-HIAA tests to be positive results in 37.5% sensitivity, 88% specificity, and has a positive predictive value of 23%. The prediction model that requires either DST or CSF 5-HIAA tests to be positive results in 87.5% sensitivity, 28% specificity, and has a positive predictive value of 10%. Thus, models attempting to predict a lethal outcome that is uncommon perform very differently making model choice of major importance. Further work on refining biological predictors and integration with clinical predictors is needed to optimize a model to predict suicide in the clinic.

Biomarkers↗
PubMed2001

Predictive genetic testing in children and adults: a study of emotional impact.

AIM: To determine whether, following predictive genetic testing for familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP), children or adults receiving positive results experience clinically significant levels of anxiety or depression, and whether children receiving positive results experience higher levels of anxiety or depression than adults receiving positive results. DESIGN: Two studies, one cross sectional and one prospective. SAMPLE: 208 unaffected subjects (148 adults and 60 children) at risk for FAP who have undergone genetic testing since 1990. MAIN MEASURES DEPENDENT VARIABLES: anxiety, depression; independent variables: test results, demographic measures, psychological resources (optimism, self-esteem). RESULTS: Study 1. In children receiving positive results, mean scores for anxiety and depression were within the normal range. There was a trend for children receiving positive results to be more anxious and depressed than those receiving negative results. In adults, mean scores for anxiety were within the normal range for those receiving negative results, but were in the clinical range for those receiving positive results, with 43% (95% CI 23-65) of the latter having scores in this range. Regardless of test result, adults were more likely to be clinically anxious if they were low in optimism or self-esteem. Children receiving positive or negative results did not experience greater anxiety or depression than adults. Study 2. For children receiving a positive test result, mean scores for anxiety, depression, and self-esteem were unchanged over the year following the result, while mean anxiety scores decreased and self-esteem increased after receipt of a negative test result over the same period of time. CONCLUSION: Children, as a group, did not show clinically significant distress over the first year following predictive genetic testing. Adults were more likely to be clinically anxious if they received a positive result or were low in optimism or self-esteem, with interacting effects. The association between anxiety, self-esteem, and optimism suggests that counselling should be targeted, not only at those with positive test results, but also at those low in psychological resources.

Adenomatous Polyposis Coli↗
PubMed2000

Predictive value of acetylcholine stimulation testing for oligohidrosis caused by zonisamide.

We studied 16 patients for whom zonisamide was newly prescribed. Acetylcholine stimulation testing was performed about 1 month after zonisamide was initiated. Oligohidrosis occurred in none of the four with a normal response and in four of the 12 with a decreased response. Acetylcholine stimulation testing predicted oligohidrosis with a sensitivity of 1 and a false-positive rate of 0.67. The acetylcholine stimulation test was sensitive in detecting oligohidrosis caused by zonisamide, although the false-positive rate was high.

Acetylcholine↗
PubMed1985

Role of exercise testing in predicting sudden death.

The exercise test can be utilized to identify a subset of patients with coronary heart disease who are at increased risk of subsequent cardiac mortality including sudden cardiac death. The exercise test variables that best identify these high risk patients differ according to clinical subsets, but exercise duration, ST segment depression and ventricular arrhythmias on the electrocardiogram are the most important variables. In the clinical setting, the exercise test is of limited value for identifying the patient at risk for developing sudden cardiac death because its sensitivity and specificity are not high enough. However, the exercise test does provide prognostic information that is independent of other clinical variables and it may prove to be of clinical utility when combined with multiple other prognostic variables.

Arrhythmias, Cardiac↗
PubMed1997

Early detection of Alzheimer disease: methods, markers, and misgivings.

There is at present no reliable predictive test for most forms of Alzheimer disease (AD). Although some information about future risk for disease is available in theory through ApoE genotyping, it is of limited accuracy and utility. Once neuroprotective treatments are available for AD, reliable early detection will become a key component of the treatment strategy. We recently conducted a pilot survey eliciting attitudes and beliefs toward an unspecified and hypothetical predictive test for AD. The survey was completed by a convenience sample of 176 individuals, aged 22-77, which was 75% female, 30% African-American, and of which 33% had a family member with AD. The survey revealed that 69% of this sample would elect to obtain predictive testing for AD if the test were 100% accurate. Individuals were more likely to desire predictive testing if they had an a priori belief that they would develop AD (p = 0.0001), had a lower educational level (p = 0.003), were worried that they would develop AD (p = 0.02), had a self-defined history of depression (p = 0.04), and had a family member with AD (p = 0.04). However, the desire for predictive testing was not significantly associated with age, gender, ethnicity, or income. The desire to obtain predictive testing for AD decreased as the assumed accuracy of the hypothetical test decreased. A better short-term strategy for early detection of AD may be computer-based neuropsychological screening of at-risk (older aged) individuals to identify very early cognitive impairment. Individuals identified in this manner could be referred for diagnostic evaluation and early cases of AD could be identified and treated. A new self-administered, touch-screen, computer-based, neuropsychological screening instrument called Neurobehavioral Evaluation System-3 is described, which may facilitate this type of screening.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

A systematic review (meta-analysis) of the accuracy of the Mallampati tests to predict the difficult airway.

The original and modified Mallampati tests are commonly used to predict the difficult airway, but there is controversy regarding their accuracy. We searched MEDLINE and other databases for prospective studies of patients undergoing general anesthesia in which the results of a preoperative Mallampati test were compared with the subsequent rate of difficult airway (difficult laryngoscopy, difficult intubation, or difficult ventilation as reference tests). Forty-two studies enrolling 34,513 patients were included. The definitions of the reference tests varied widely. For predicting difficult laryngoscopy, both versions of the Mallampati test had good accuracy (area under the summary receiver operating characteristic (sROC) curve = 0.89 +/- 0.05 and 0.78 +/- 0.05, respectively). For predicting difficult intubation, the modified Mallampati test had good accuracy (area under the sROC curve = 0.83 +/- 0.03) whereas the original Mallampati test was poor (area under the sROC curve = 0.58 +/- 0.12). The Mallampati tests were poor at identifying difficult mask ventilation. Publication bias was not detected. Used alone, the Mallampati tests have limited accuracy for predicting the difficult airway and thus are not useful screening tests.

Anesthesia, General↗
PubMed2000

Evaluation of blood tests to predict normal gastric mucosa.

BACKGROUND: To determine the accuracy of blood tests in predicting normal gastric mucosa confirmed by histological examination of gastric biopsy specimens. METHODS: In total, 207 consecutive patients referred for upper endoscopy were included. Two biopsy specimens each from the antrum and corpus were assessed histologically for the presence of Helicobacter pylori, gastritis, and atrophy. Serum samples were studied for H. pylori antibodies by enzyme immunoassay (Pyloriset EIA-G and EIA-A) and by a rapid latex agglutination test (Pyloriset Dry); pepsinogen I was measured by an immunoenzymometric assay (Gastroset PGI), gastrin by radioimmunoassay, and parietal cell antibodies by indirect immunofluorescence. RESULTS: In 101 (49%) of 207 patients, the gastric mucosa on histologic examination was normal. In the 63 patients aged 45 years or less, H. pylori IgG serology was negative in all 47 patients with normal gastric mucosa and none had low serum pepsinogen I levels. Among 144 patients over age 45 years, 72 had negative H. pylori IgG serology. Combining the serum pepsinogen I assay with the results of H. pylori IgG serology, 12 patients with normal serology but low serum pepsinogen I were found. Thus, 60 patients, 52 of whom showed normal gastric histology, had normal IgG serology and serum pepsinogen 1. In the remaining eight patients with normal blood tests, the histologic changes were very mild. CONCLUSIONS: Although negative H. pylori IgG serology alone in younger patients, and in combination with normal serum pepsinogen I levels in older patients, reliably predicted the presence of normal gastric mucosa, gastroscopy is still recommended for patients over 45 years.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Non-uptake of predictive genetic testing for BRCA1/2 among relatives of known carriers: attributes, cancer worry, and barriers to testing in a multicenter clinical cohort.

BRCA1/2 test decliners/deferrers have received almost no attention in the literature and this is the first study of this population in the United Kingdom. The aim of this multicenter study is to examine the attributes of a group of individuals offered predictive genetic testing for breast/ovarian cancer predisposition who did not wish to proceed with testing at the time of entry into this study. This forms part of a larger study involving 9 U.K. centers investigating the psychosocial impact of predictive genetic testing for BRCA1/2. Cancer worry and reasons for declining or deferring BRCA1/2 predictive genetic testing were evaluated by questionnaire following genetic counseling. A total of 34 individuals declined the offer of predictive genetic testing. Compared to the national cohort of test acceptors, test decliners are significantly younger. Female test decliners have lower levels of cancer worry than female test acceptors. Barriers to testing include apprehension about the result, traveling to the genetics clinic, and taking time away from work/family. Women are more likely than men to worry about receiving less screening if found not to be a carrier. The findings do not indicate that healthy BRCA1/2 test decliners are a more vulnerable group in terms of cancer worry. However, barriers to testing need to be discussed in genetic counseling.

Adult↗
PubMed1996

The sperm stress test: a novel test that predicts pregnancy in assisted reproductive technologies.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a reliable sperm test that would predict pregnancy rate in assisted reproductive technologies. DESIGN: Blind prospective cohort study. SETTING: Tertiary-care, university hospital-affiliated IVF program. PATIENTS: One hundred nineteen sperm samples were obtained from 110 males from couples undergoing IVF or GIFT (ART). Sperm samples were washed by Percoll, incubated at 24 degrees C for 4 hours, and an aliquot of the same sperm suspension was used for ART incubated at 40 degrees C for 4 hours (stress test). Stress test scores are expressed as the ratio of final to initial motility. RESULTS: Of 119 ART cycles, 24 resulted in pregnancy. Of 24 pregnancies, 23 occurred in cycles that used sperm samples with stress test scores > or = 0.75 and only one with a stress test score < 0.75. The negative predictive value of the test, defined as the absence of pregnancy with scores < 0.75, was 98% and the positive predictive value, defined as the occurrence of pregnancy with scores > or = 0.75, was 36%. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the stress test score alone was correlated significantly with pregnancy after ART. CONCLUSION: These results indicate that stress test scores < 0.75 are predictive of poor pregnancy outcome in ART.

Adult↗
PubMed2001

A paradox: urgent BRCA genetic testing.

Diagnostic or predictive testing for germline mutations in cancer predisposition genes is inherently slow as result of both genetic counselling and mutation analysis. The overall time taken for mutation testing is not generally perceived as harmful to the individual and may be positively beneficial in order to permit full reflection on the implication of the genetic test results. However, we present three cases where we considered urgent genetic testing for the presence of mutations in th BRCA 1 and 2 genes to be necessary as the test result would have altered the subsequent clinical management of these individuals or their families.

Breast Neoplasms↗
PubMed2000

Psychosocial factors predicting BRCA1/BRCA2 testing decisions in members of hereditary breast and ovarian cancer families.

Although BRCA1/2 testing has increasingly entered clinical practice, much is to be learned about the most effective ways to provide counseling to persons potentially interested in receiving test results. The purpose of this study was to identify factors affecting genetic testing decisions in a cohort of hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) families presented with the choice to undergo testing. Relatives in these families are known to carry BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations. Sociodemographics, personality traits, and family functioning were self-assessed using validated psychometric instruments at baseline. Among 172 individuals who participated in pretest education and counseling, 135 (78%) chose to undergo genetic testing and 37 (22%) chose not to be tested. Individuals who chose to undergo genetic testing were more likely to be older (> or =40 years), to have lower levels of optimism, and to report higher levels of cohesiveness in their families. A better understanding of factors that influence interest in predictive testing may help to inform the counseling that occurs prior to genetic testing.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1989

Using the Bender-Gestalt test to predict graphomotor dimensions of the Draw-A-Person test.

The investigators examined four correlated aspects of the Bender-Gestalt and the Draw-A-Person tests. Subjects were 41 boys and 14 girls classified as seriously emotionally disturbed or seriously behavior disordered by their school system in southwest Georgia. Each subject's Bender-Gestalt and human figure drawings were placed on a digitizing pad and encoded to provide information relative to the width, height, average point of location on the fourth quadrant abscissa and ordinate of each drawing. The widths of Bender Figures 2 and 8 correlated significantly with the widths of human drawings; the heights of Figures A, 5, and 7 were significantly correlated with the heights of the human drawings. Bender Figure 1 was significantly correlated with average points of location on the abscissa of human figure drawings (distance from the left margin of the page), but correlations between the average points of location from the top of the page were nonsignificant. Comparison of these results with data from other samples might refine diagnosis.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

Predictive genetic testing in urology: ethical and social issues.

In order to maximize the benefits of predictive genetic testing in urology, the potential ethical and social risks must be identified and minimized. Necessary steps include providing adequate information for patients and families; preparing them to receive test results; maintaining confidentiality to avoid social stigma and discrimination; preserving the principal of solidarity to provide assurances of medical care and social support for persons at risk of genetic illness; and avoiding inappropriate social pressure to prevent the birth of at-risk individuals. Health professionals must play a significant role in helping individuals, families, and society in general to make sound testing decisions and policy.

Genetic Counseling↗
PubMed1983

[Predictive tumor tests in chemotherapeutic treatment concepts of malignant diseases].

In order to determine the pre-therapeutical effectiveness of cytotoxic drugs in metastasizing tumours, two in vitro test methods were examined for their predictive validity: the short-term incubation of tumour cells with cytotoxic drugs and radioactive labelled precursors of the DNA- or RNA-synthesis, and the testing of the cloning ability of tumour cells, pre-incubated with cytotoxic drugs. The short-term incubation techniques were directed in two directions: the testing of sensitivity and the testing of resistance. Both methods can only be carried out using strong proliferating tumours. With methodical, pharmalogical and biological problems, the sensitivity test results in a relatively minor correlation between the in vitro and in vivo reactions. Contrary to this the resistance test allows a predictive, clinically utilizable judgement of primary and secondary forms of the tumour-cell resistance of specific cytotoxic drugs. The consecutive measurement of the proliferative activity of tumours before and after a systematic chemotherapy also seems to be an able parameter concerning the clinically expected effectiveness of cytotoxic drugs. Compared to the other in vitro tests the tumour-cell clonogenic assay demonstrates two main advantages: firstly, all cytotoxic drugs can be analysed by this test method, and secondly, little proliferating tumours can also examined. Nevertheless, this test method seems to be more suitable for predicting tumour-cell resistance than the sensitivity of cytotoxic drugs.

Antineoplastic Agents↗
PubMed2001

Utility of current risk stratification tests for predicting major arrhythmic events after myocardial infarction.

OBJECTIVES: We surveyed the literature to estimate prediction values for five common tests for risk of major arrhythmic events (MAEs) after myocardial infarction. We then determined feasibility of a staged risk stratification using combinations of noninvasive tests, reserving an electrophysiologic study (EPS) as the final test. BACKGROUND: Improved approaches are needed for identifying those patients at highest risk for subsequent MAE and candidates for implantable cardioverter-defibrillators. METHODS: We located 44 reports for which values of MAE incidence and predictive accuracy could be inferred: signal-averaged electrocardiography; heart rate variability; severe ventricular arrhythmia on ambulatory electrocardiography; left ventricular ejection fraction; and EPS. A meta-analysis of reports used receiver-operating characteristic curves to estimate mean values for sensitivity and specificity for each test and 95% confidence limits. We then simulated a clinical situation in which risk was estimated by combining tests in three stages. RESULTS: Test sensitivities ranged from 42.8% to 62.4%; specificities from 77.4% to 85.8%. A three-stage stratification yielded a low-risk group (80.0% with a two-year MAE risk of 2.9%), a high-risk group (11.8% with a 41.4% risk) and an unstratified group (8.2% with an 8.9% risk equivalent to a two-year incidence of 7.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Sensitivities and specificities for the five tests were relatively similar. No one test was satisfactory alone for predicting risk. Combinations of tests in stages allowed us to stratify 91.8% of patients as either high-risk or low-risk. These data suggest that a large prospective study to develop a robust prediction model is feasible and desirable.

Death, Sudden, Cardiac↗
PubMed2000

Genetic testing for Alzheimer's disease.

Genetic factors are important in the development of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Familial AD can result from rare mutations in some genes. Other genes, such as the apolipoprotein E gene (APOE), operate as risk factors for late-onset sporadic AD. On a background of advances in the genetics of AD we suggest a way in which genetic information may be used in the diagnosis of AD. If there is a positive family history of early-onset dementia and the clinical features suggest AD, patients may be tested for presenilin and amyloid precursor protein gene mutations with appropriate pretest and post-test counselling. Predictive testing should be performed under guidelines developed by the World Federation of Neurology and the Human Genetics Society of Australasia. The usefulness of APOE genotyping as an adjunct to conventional diagnostic tests is unknown; data suggest it has low sensitivity and specificity and may have little predictive value in an individual patient. APOE genotyping should not be performed in asymptomatic individuals, except as part of an ethically approved research project; this recommendation is supported by a number of international consensus statements. APOE testing should not be used as a diagnostic test without adequate pretest and post-test counselling, education and support. APOE testing should not be used as a sole diagnostic test in the work-up of patients with AD. Genetic risk factors other than APOE require validation and should not be used routinely, except as part of an ethically approved research protocol.

Aged↗