Projecting age-specific fertility rates by using time-series methods.
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Age Factors↗
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Multistate life table with duration dependence: an application to Hungarian female marital history.
"Building on recent developments in multistate demography, and using data from the 1984 Hungarian microcensus, this paper analyzes the impact that the introduction of duration-specific transitions has on the results of a multistate life table analysis of marital dissolution. The results show that the inclusion of duration has its greatest impact on the distribution of the stationary population between ages 25 and 35." (SUMMARY IN FRE)
Age Factors↗
Mortality and population ageing.
The authors examine the effects of mortality trends on age structure and how fertility and migration affect demograpnic aging. "Computations are done for both France and Italy on population ageing during the last 30 years as well as until the end of the official population projections around 2040. Though the ageing effect of fertility decline is usually emphasized, we can see here that the consequences of mortality changes are at least equally (and sometimes more) important. The case of the Italian projection is particularly fascinating. Even if the very low fertility level of 1.4 children per capita is maintained until the year 2040, more than half the increase in the proportion of the population aged 60 and over (from 21% to 43% for females) would be due to mortality change and slightly less to fertility change." (SUMMARY IN FRE)
Age Distribution↗
Divorce, mobility and housing demand.
The authors analyze the relationship between divorce and housing in the Netherlands. "We first describe the increase in the number of divorces since the early seventies as a context for our subsequent analysis of residential mobility and housing demand among the divorced. Expectations for future developments from now till the year 2000 are evaluated. We base our analysis on the general statistics compiled by the Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics..., data from the 'National Survey of Housing Needs' 1981..., and a small survey we conducted in the municipality of Nieuwegein.... As recently as the early seventies, divorce had a relatively minor impact on the housing market in the Netherlands. But in the last decade the role of divorce in the process of household formation and dissolution has grown dramatically [and has had] an increasing impact on mobility and housing demand...." (SUMMARY IN FRE)
Demography↗
Projecting household dynamics: a scenario-based microsimulation approach.
2 methods are brought together to estimate and analyze future household structure. Application of a scenario method results in the construction of differing context scenarios. These context scenarios function as alternative societal environments of the future household system. Given these context scenarios and, tentatively derived, general hypotheses relating relevant elements of the context scenarios and household processes, future input parameters of the household model are postulated. Subsequently, microsimulation is used to calculate the future household structure. Emphasis in the article is on methodology, rather than on substantive issues which have a mainly illustrative function.
Developed Countries↗
Unobserved heterogeneity and the analysis of longitudinal spatial choice data.
"This paper tackles the problem of handling uncontrolled heterogeneity due to unobserved influences on the decision process of spatial choice. It concentrates upon a discrete-time/'random-effects' approach to the problem of unobserved heterogeneity and documents parametric and non-parametric methods of specifying and estimating models which can cope with unobserved heterogeneity." The model is applied to data from Wales. (SUMMARY IN FRE)
Behavior↗
Modelling step-families: exploratory findings.
"A combined macro-micro model is applied to a population similar to that forecast for 2035 in the Netherlands in order to simulate the effect on kinship networks of a mating system of serial monogamy. The importance of incorporating a parameter for the degree of concentration of childbearing over the female population is emphasized. The inputs to the model are vectors of fertility rates by age of mother, and by age of father, a matrix of first-marriage rates by age of both partners (used in the macro-analytical expressions), and two parameters H and S (used in the micro-simulation phase). The output is a data base of hypothetical individuals, whose records contain identification number, age, sex, and the identification numbers of their relatives." (SUMMARY IN FRE)
Developed Countries↗
A graphic representation of projection accuracy.
The author examines "the problem of measuring projection accuracy. Experience with applying the accuracy measure 'quality of prediction', as proposed by Keyfitz, leads the author to a critical evaluation and elaboration of this accuracy measure. Time series of prediction quality values may show a remarkable temporal instability, partly depending on the chosen bench mark, which seriously hinders interpretation. This interpretation problem may be solved by an easily applicable graphical solution, a convenient short-circuit device to assess a projection's accuracy without restrictions as to size of population or length of projection period." The concepts are illustrated with data used for population forecasts for the Netherlands during the 1970s. (SUMMARY IN FRE)
Demography↗
The demographics of unfunded pensions.
The performance of pay-as-you-go old-age insurance under different demographic conditions can be estimated from a metric consisting of the implicit rate of return to successive cohorts. The author shows a positive return for the prospective population over the next few years, but for cohorts born after the end of the century returns will become sharply negative. A decline in returns is typical of pay-as-you-go schemes as they mature, and a change to negative returns is typical in particular as the birth rate falls under fixed economic conditions. The return can be kept positive by greatly increased fertility or immigration. Taking labor-force participation rates into account, and supposing entitlement independent of contribution, gives much larger negative rates of return, however. The main calculations considered here are for schemes with a constant pension. If the contribution rather than the pension is kept constant then the disparities between cohorts with respect to their returns are smaller, and although the negative returns for future generations then set in earlier they are smaller. The conclusions of the paper are broadly applicable to any population that showed a baby boom after World War II and replacement-level or lower fertility subsequently.
Americas↗
Evaluating the Slavonian census of 1698. Part I: structure and meaning.
"Microsimulation, other demographic tools, and evidence of history and ethnography are used to evaluate an important 17th century household census [in Slavonia, which is modern Croatia]. Linguistic, ethnographic, and internal evidence allow adjustment of anomalies in census categories. Microsimulation based on historically and ethnographically plausible rates and household formation scenarios produces simulated households in accord with those of the adjusted census. Results permit estimation of the true population of the region, of the kinship and age composition of households under frontier conditions, and the probable future composition of households as the frontier stabilized and land shortage began to exert pressure for greater density and household complexity. Part I concentrates on historical, ethnographic, and linguistic evidence." (SUMMARY IN FRE)
Censuses↗
Socio-economic differences in mortality. A life course approach.
"Differential mortality in Norway has been studied on the basis of a sample of data derived from the linkage of the 1960, 1970, and 1980 censuses to vital registration records. Based on the hypothesis that the determinants of survival act in interaction, two models are proposed. The first is based on states defined at each observation period by the conjunction of attributes characterizing each individual. The second model considers the chronological order of the states. Logistic regression applied to the latter shows that the most favourable male and female life trajectories are those for married people belonging to rather privileged categories. There are however some differences by sex, as favourable trajectories concern both economically inactive females and employees." (SUMMARY IN FRE)
Data Collection↗
The potential impact of improvements in contraception on fertility and abortion in Western countries.
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Abortion, Induced↗
A hazard model analysis examining inferential evidence of migration from the Port-city of Viana do Castelo, Minho, 1834-1931.
"This paper is an attempt to analyse the determinants of out-migration of the elite from the Portuguese city of Viana do Castelo [from 1834-1931]. The data used are derived from a reconstruction of this electorate using record linkage methods. Indirect evidence of emigration is available from passport books, and evidence of death is available with cemetery lists. The paper discusses methodological issues in the estimation of hazard models of duration spent under observation in the elite. The analysis suggests that, while out-migration was not significantly dependent on age, or marital status, there were large occupational differentials, and significant period effects." (SUMMARY IN FRE)
Age Factors↗
[Differential mortality by cause of death in Norway, 1970-1985].
"Data from the three Norwegian censuses of 1960, 1970 and 1990 combined with information on migration status and survival between 1970 and 1985 have permitted the estimation, through logistic modelling, of the predictive abilities of different socio-economic indicators on the risk of death by cause. The risk has also been measured for each indicator separately, according to the path followed by the individual between 1960 and 1980. The study shows very strong disparities in risk both for men and for women, as well as a moderate reduction in differences in risk by age. The study also shows, among other things, the importance of taking account of socio-economic information covering as long a period as possible and to consider the cause of death in the study of differential mortality through a life-history approach." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
Age Factors↗
Estimating the time elapsed since first marriage with cross-section data.
"This article shows how Hajnal's method of estimating the mean age at first marriage with period data may be extended to estimate also the mean time elapsed since first marriage. The latter may thus be estimated in fertility analyses that exploit cross-sectional data even when the date of marriage is not known. However, simulations indicate that, under certain circumstances, such an estimate may be seriously biased. An application to data drawn from the 1981 Italian census is presented." (SUMMARY IN FRE)
Age Factors↗
[Demographic systems and supranational systems: European fertility from 1952 to 1982].
"The analysis of fertility for 22 European countries and 8 Soviet Republics between 1952 and 1982 reveals different evolutionary models for socialist Eastern Europe and capitalist Western Europe. These models function as attractors (in the sense of fractal geometry) and suggest that demographic evolutions occur at a supranational level. Is it a matter of a bifurcation related to the geopolitical division established after 1945? Or should it rather be seen as a resurgence of the old historical division which cuts Europe into two parts along either side of a line from Trieste to Saint Petersberg?" (SUMMARY IN ENG)
Demography↗
Predictability of demographic variables in the short run.
In assessing the performance of population forecasts, it is useful to have a standard with which forecast errors can be compared. Univariate time series models may provide such a standard. Mean forecast errors of time series models indicate to what extent the movement of a variable could have been predicted from its own past. These errors show the degree of predictability that is attainable, at least in a given period. In this paper 3 time series methods (exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins method, and structural time series models) are applied to Dutch data on births, deaths, marriages, immigrants, and emigrants. The variability of prediction errors between different periods is examined. The possibility that univariate predictions can be improved by using quarterly or monthly data instead of annual data is tested.
Demography↗
On demographic aging, inflation, and real wages: some evidence from the Netherlands.
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Demography↗