Secular trends in different racial groups.
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The objective of this study was to investigate whether semen quality has changed during the years 1977-1995 in a group of unselected semen donor candidates, and to determine whether semen quality is subject to seasonal variation, by analysis of time- and season-related changes in semen quality using multiple regression and ANOVA. The study was based on analysis of the first semen sample delivered by 1927 semen donor candidates in Copenhagen during the period 1977-1995, with determination of semen volume, sperm concentration, total sperm count, percentage motile spermatozoa, and a semiquantitative sperm motility score. Multiple linear regression analysis with year, sexual abstinence and season as covariates showed a significant increase in mean sperm concentration from 53.0 x 10(6)/mL in 1977 to 72.7 x 10(6)/mL in 1995 (p < 0.0001) and in mean total sperm count from 166.0 x 10(6) to 227.6 x 10(6) (p < 0.0001). Mean semen volume and percentage motile spermatozoa did not change. Sperm motility deteriorated, as the spermatozoa in 74.2% of the samples were of excellent motility in 1977-1980 compared to only 41.9% in 1993-1995 (chi 2 = 130.0, p < 0.0001). Analysis of variance showed significant variation between seasons regarding sperm concentration (p < 0.0001) and total sperm count (p < 0.0001). Highest sperm counts were found in spring, with a mean concentration (95% C.I.) of 77.6 x 10(6)/mL (71.9-83.7), and lowest in summer, with a mean of 57.5 x 10(6)/mL (50.1-65.4). No other semen parameter varied with season. It is concluded that sperm counts increased, whereas sperm motility decreased, in a group of Danish semen donor candidates, from 1977 to 1995. Due to the retrospective design and the anonymity of the donors, we were unable to control for variation in donor age, and we cannot exclude the possibility that some donor candidates were selected by being accepted as donors by other semen donor services in Copenhagen. With these limitations in mind, we suggest our results should be interpreted cautiously and regarded as a contribution to the ongoing dispute on whether or not there is a continuous decrease in sperm quality. The seasonal variations found in sperm concentration and total sperm count were pronounced and were not attributable to seasonal differences in the length of sexual abstinence. Additionally, the same seasonal pattern was observed in five successive year-intervals. These findings strongly indicate that human testicular function is influenced by season, a phenomenon well known in many lower mammals.
OBJECTIVES: In the Northern Sweden MONICA Study, levels of cardiovascular risk factors were determined in 1986, 1990 and 1994. The aim of this study was to assess the trends in cardiovascular risk factors, and to analyse the relationship between levels of risk factors and level of education. DESIGN: Cardiovascular risk factors were determined in cross-sectional population studies of randomly selected 25-64 year old men and women in 1986, 1990 and 1994 (a total of 4742 individuals). RESULTS: Throughout the years 1986 to 1994, cardiovascular risk factor levels showed a marked social pattern, generally being more favourable among people with a university education. Serum cholesterol levels declined in all educational groups, but blood pressure declined significantly only in women with a university education. Body mass index increased, most markedly in men with university and in women with a secondary school education. Prevalence of cigarette smoking decreased significantly in young men. It increased markedly in low-educated women so that the social gaps in smoking widened substantially over time. The improved level of education in the population at large was calculated to explain only a little of the risk factor changes between 1986 and 1994. CONCLUSIONS: Trends in risk factor levels in different educational groups have been more diverging for women than for men. The most marked change in risk factor levels has been the decline in total serum cholesterol for both men and women in all educational groups.
Preterm birth and low birthweight in Canada have shown paradoxical temporal trends, with an increase in preterm birth and a decrease in low birthweight. Mean birthweight has increased in many industrialised countries, despite a recent rise in preterm birth, suggesting a temporal increase in fetal growth (birthweight for gestational age) in Canada. We thus described temporal trends in the distribution of fetal growth from 1981 to 1997, including means and proportions of infants at both the low and high ends of the fetal growth distribution. We used data for singleton live births from Statistics Canada's Canadian Birth Data Base for the years 1981-97 (excluding Ontario and Newfoundland) and analysed temporal trends in birthweight and birthweight-for-gestational-age z-score as continuous outcomes and the derived dichotomised outcomes [i.e. low birthweight (<2500 g), very low birthweight (<1500 g), small-for-gestational-age (<10th percentile), very small-for-gestational-age (<3rd percentile), high birthweight (>4000 g), very high birthweight (>4500 g), large-for-gestational-age (>90th percentile), and very large-for-gestational-age (>97th percentile)]. The birthweight-for-gestational-age was based on a newly developed population-based Canadian reference. The results showed that in the overall sample and in a subsample of term and post-term births, mean birthweight, mean z-score, rates of high birthweight, very high birthweight, large-for-gestational-age, and very large-for-gestational-age increased whereas rates of low birthweight, very low birthweight, small-for-gestational-age, and very small-for-gestational-age decreased between 1981-83 and 1995-97. The reverse was observed in preterm births. These temporal changes were larger for more extremely distributed measures of fetal growth. For example, compared with 1981-83, the decrease in 1995-97 for very small-for-gestational-age (<3rd percentile) was 38.9%, whereas the decrease for small-for-gestational-age (<10th percentile) was only 29.7%. Corresponding temporal increases were 21.4% for very large-for-gestational-age (>97th percentile) and 15.2% for large-for-gestational-age (>90th percentile). Among infants with gestational age 34-36 weeks, all measures of fetal growth, including the rates for all dichotomous outcomes, decreased in 1995-97 as compared with 1981-83. We conclude that Canadian infants are getting bigger, but only those born at term. The temporal trends for more extremely distributed fetal growth measures are particularly marked.
BACKGROUND: Pediculosis capitis and pubis are not mandatorily reported diseases in most countries. Thus, the reported rates of these diseases in large populations are usually inaccurate and based on estimations. OBJECTIVE: To describe the global epidemiology of pediculosis capitis and pubis in the Israeli Defense Force. METHODS: We analyzed the data obtained from the routine and mandatory reporting of every individual case of pediculosis capitis and pubis to the Army Health Branch Epidemiology Department since 1972 and 1973, respectively. RESULTS: During this period, epidemics of pediculosis capitis and pubis were observed between 1973 and 1985 and 1972 and 1987, with 17.7- and 3.9-fold increases in incidence, respectively. These two epidemics were followed by a sharp decline in morbidity (113.6- and 13.6-fold between 1981 and 1999 and 1984 and 1999, respectively) to the present. CONCLUSIONS: A number of factors could be responsible for the observed decline in morbidity, e.g. socioeconomic, pharmacologic, environmental, or prevention policy modifications. The rates of pediculosis capitis and pubis have continuously declined since the last epidemic of 1972-1987, indicating the influence of these and possibly other factors.
OBJECTIVES: To compare the self-reported functional status of cohorts, born 10 years apart, when they were at equivalent ages: 75, 80, or 85. DESIGN: Cross-sectional mailed survey of three birth cohorts in 1989 and 1999. PARTICIPANTS: Random samples of older home-dwelling residents from birth cohorts 1904, 1909, and 1914 in 1989 ( N = 685) and the birth cohorts 1914, 1919, and 1924 in 1999 ( N = 2,047) were asked the same questions. MEASUREMENTS: Self-reported physical functioning, need for assistance in daily living, and attitudes toward life. RESULTS: Among 85-year-olds born in 1914 there was a significantly larger proportion able to go outdoors compared with 85-year-olds born in 1904 (72.9% vs 60.6% in women (P <.01) and 84.6% vs 63.6 % in men (P <.01), respectively). Similar trends were observed between the oldest cohorts concerning the need for assistance. The amount of publicly funded domestic help had reduced in the two oldest cohorts in 1999 compared with 1989 (20.3% vs 29.8% in 85-year-old women born in 1914 vs 1904 (P <.05); and 10.2 % vs 25.0% in 85-year-old men born 1914 vs 1904 (P <.05), but at the same time 75-year-old women born in 1924 had increased the use of private domestic help compared with 75-year-old women born in 1914. Significantly larger proportions of both men and women had plans for the future in all the cohorts in 1999 than in 1989. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent yet small differences between the corresponding cohorts suggest that physical functioning and more-optimistic attitude toward life have increased and need for assistance has decreased over 10 years in the older population up to the age of 85.
Numerous studies have reported increases in asthma prevalence among children world-wide. Less is known about similar trends in adults. We aimed to investigate whether the prevalence of allergic asthma symptoms had increased in an adult general population. Two cross-sectional surveys using identical methods were carried out in 1989 and 1998. A one-page questionnaire on respiratory symptoms was mailed to random samples of 15-41-year-olds living in Copenhagen. The response rates were 86.6% (3624/4185) and 78.8% (2402/3048) in 1989 and 1998, respectively. The questionnaire was validated with specific immunoglobilin E (IgE) positivity as the reference in a random sample of responders in connection with both surveys. We found a significantly increased prevalence of subjects who reported shortness of breath on exposure to pollens (6.6% 0 s. 10.3%, odds ratio 1.61, 95% CI 1.34-1.95), furry animals (5.4% vs. 7.6%, odds ratio 1.45, 95% CI 1.17-1.79), and house dust (7.8% vs. 10.2%, odds ratio 1.35, 95% CI 1.12-1.61). The validation of these symptoms showed that the positive predictive values were reasonably stable over time, which may support that a true increase in allergic asthma has occurred. In conclusion, the prevalence of allergic asthma symptoms increased significantly in this adult general population over a 9-year period.
There is increasing evidence that the aerobic fitness performance of children is declining, at least in developed countries. To see if there was evidence of similar trends in a non-Western country, this study analysed data on 6-18-year-old Koreans tested between 1968 and 2000 using distance runs ranging from 600 to 1200 m. All existing data on the results of children's aerobic fitness tests in Korea were collated. In addition to six individual studies, very large datasets were available from the Korean Ministries of Education, and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. Data on a total of 22,127,265 6-18-year-old children were available in the form of group means and standard deviations. Data were collated for each age x sex x test group, and performances were expressed as percentages of the fitted values for the year 1992 to standardise across tests, ages and sexes. All age x sex x test groups were then combined, and curves were fitted using weighted regression. A two-linear segment model best described the pattern of change (r = 0.83, p < 0.001). There was a relatively slow decline (0.26 % per year) in the aerobic performance of Korean children between 1968 and 1984. After 1984, however, there was a steep decline in performance, averaging 0.80 % per year. The rate of decline was greater in boys, younger children and children from outside the capital Seoul. Changes in running performance showed a similar pattern to changes in estimated body mass index. Compared to other countries, there has been a sharp decline in Korean children's performance on tests of aerobic fitness, which has been concurrent with increases in estimated body mass index.
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BACKGROUND: Between 1980 and 1989, mortality due to coronary artery disease decreased considerably in the United States, suggesting a possible decrease in the prevalence of coronary atherosclerosis. We examined this possibility in patients with valvular regurgitation who, often in the absence of angina, underwent coronary angiography before valve-replacement surgery. METHODS: We studied 601 patients with isolated, nonischemic valvular regurgitation who were operated on between 1980 and 1989 and who had undergone preoperative coronary angiography. From the angiograms we determined the prevalence of clinically significant coronary artery disease and of multivessel disease, assessed the mean degree of stenosis, and analyzed the trends in the data over the years of the study. RESULTS: The prevalence of coronary artery disease (35 percent in 1980-1981, 37 percent in 1982-1983, 34 percent in 1984-1985, 37 percent in 1986-1987, and 35 percent in 1988-1989; P = 0.97) did not change significantly during the study period. We found no significant change in the prevalence of multivessel disease (24 percent in 1980-1981 and 23 percent in 1988-1989, P = 0.99) or in the mean ( +/- SD) degree of stenosis (11 +/- 13 percent in 1980-1981 and 13 +/- 14 percent in 1988-1989, P = 0.07). When these measures of coronary atherosclerosis were adjusted for age and sex, there were still no significant changes over time (P = 0.39 for the prevalence of coronary artery disease, P = 0.81 for that of multivessel disease, and P = 0.57 for the mean degree of stenosis). The patients' mean total cholesterol level decreased from 219 +/- 48 mg per deciliter (5.66 +/- 1.24 mmol per liter) to 206 +/- 44 mg per deciliter (5.33 +/- 1.14 mmol per liter) between 1980 and 1989 (P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: From 1980 to 1989, no significant change was observed in angiographic measures of coronary atherosclerosis in patients with nonischemic valvular regurgitation, in contrast to the marked decrease in mortality due to coronary disease in the general population. These findings suggest that the well-documented reduction in mortality due to coronary disease may not be due to a reduction in the prevalence of coronary atherosclerosis.
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OBJECTIVES: To examine the impact of state legislation mandating minimum maternal and newborn length of stay (LOS). STUDY DESIGN: By using Medicaid claims data linked to vital statistics files, LOS, and "short stay" (</=1 day after vaginal delivery, </=2 days after cesarean delivery) were determined for 151,464 term newborns born to mothers receiving Medicaid in Ohio from July 1, 1991 to June 30, 1998. Changes in LOS and "short stay" were examined for 4 periods that reflected events occurring in Ohio at the time. RESULTS: The proportion of newborns discharged after a "short stay" increased dramatically before legislation (7/1/91-8/31/95) but decreased after the introduction of legislation (9/1/95-6/30/96). In the 4 months after passage of the law, but before its effective date (Period III), the odds of a "short stay" decreased. This decrease continued in the 20 months after the law went into effect (Period IV). White, young, married mothers without a high school degree or with poor prenatal care and lower birth weight infants were more likely to be discharged early. CONCLUSIONS: LOS and "short stay" returned to near-1991 levels for Medicaid newborns in Ohio after legislative activity.
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OBJECTIVE: To compare trends in the consumption of key foods over 10 years in the most deprived and least deprived quarters in north Glasgow, Scotland as defined by the Carstairs deprivation index for their postcode of domicile. DESIGN: Four random, cross-sectional, age- and gender-stratified population surveys carried out in 1986, 1989, 1992 and 1995. After assigning a deprivation score, food-frequency questionnaires from 2883 men and 3127 women were examined for compliance with dietary targets, examining trends by gender and within the most and least deprived quarters of the population. SETTING: North Glasgow, Scotland. SUBJECTS: Over 600 men and 600 women (aged 25-64 years) in each of the four survey years who completed a lifestyle questionnaire including a food frequency section. RESULTS: Increasing trends in the reported consumption of fruit and vegetables and oil-rich fish were observed over the 10-year period. However, the trend to increased fruit and vegetable consumption in the most deprived groups was not significant, and in 1995 only 8% of men and 12% of women in this group claimed consumption of these foods 4 or more times a day. In general, a higher percentage of those in the least deprived group met the targets for the key foods. CONCLUSIONS: Trends to increasing consumption of fruit and vegetables and fish were in the right direction, but the targets for consumption of certain key foods were met by a minority of the population. The progress towards the target for fruit and vegetables showed widening social gradients with time.
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