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PubMed1988

Wage differentials due to gender.

"In this paper, a longitudinal data set covering 5% of all Danish wage earners over a 9-year period is used to shed light on the observed wage differentials due to gender. A human capital model is used to isolate the effects of changes in experience, schooling and unemployment, together with other factors.... Despite the observation from macro statistics that women have had the highest observed increases in wage rates, the models show that this increase is mainly due to an improvement in their background characteristics and that men still receive a higher return to their characteristics. The main difference between genders appears to be that female workers do not, in general, get any return to their experience. The estimates also show negative effects on the wage rate of previous spells of unemployment."

Demography↗
PubMed1994

A macroeconometric disequilibrium analysis of current and future migration from Eastern Europe into West Germany.

"This paper attempts to evaluate the impact of current and future immigration flows on major macroeconomic variables of the West German economy. The analysis is based on a macroeconometric disequilibrium model for the West German economy. This model is extended until 1995 and used for several simulation experiments. Special attention is given to the notion that the effects of immigration are regime-specific, i.e., they depend on the type of disequilibrium prevailing on the goods and labor market."

Demography↗
PubMed1989

The behavioural and welfare implications of housing demand under rationing. The United Kingdom experience.

"The present study investigates, on pooled budget data (1968/1985) from United Kingdom Family Expenditure Surveys, the consequences of relaxing the assumption of free choice in housing, while continuing to maintain the assumption of unrationed demand for other items. Since the demand equations are estimated jointly as a system, introducing rationed demand for one item will have consequences for the other demand equations. We investigate the nature and magnitude of such changes using the framework of a general demographic demand system that allows for non-linear/non-separable commodity demand behaviour and also permits the equivalence scales to vary between the rationed and unrationed items." The author finds that "unlike in previous studies, the rationed demand system fails to reject linear preferences."

Demography↗
PubMed1990

The third birth in Sweden.

"This paper considers the formulation, estimation and interpretation of microdynamic models of fertility. Our model explains parity choices, sterility, childlessness, interbirth intervals and initiation of pregnancy within a unified framework. We develop a general methodology for estimating the determinants of transition times to births of different orders. Our procedure incorporates time-varying explanatory variables and unobservables. We present conditions that justify conventional formulae relating hazards to survivor functions when time-varying variables enter hazards. We also consider the validity of widely-used piecemeal estimation strategies that focus on one birth at a time. We consider methods for selecting a best model among a class of non-nested models. Two criteria are set forth and used to evaluate the determinants of third births in Sweden."

Birth Order↗
PubMed1990

Mortality and fertility: how large is the direct child replacement effect in China?

"The direct child replacement effect, that is the extent to which parents will have a child to replace one that died, was estime d by Olsen's method in China, using microdata from a sample survey of 4785 ever-married women in Hebei province taken in 1985. Olsen's method corrects for bias in the ordinary least squares estimate and uses mortality rates as an instrumental variable. Data for all age groups were pooled. Estimates of the direct replacement effect before and after correction for bias were 0.836 and 0.556, showing that over half of child deaths were replaced. The instrumental variable estimate produced a result of 0.614, similar to 0.613, computed by considering p1 to be random. A computation without instrumental variables yielded 0.774. The results showed that this method for calculating the direct replacement effect works well with these data because several of the alternative methods gave close estimates. There appears to be little family specific variation in child mortality rates, pointing out the effectiveness of Chinese primary health care. The direct replacement effect of about 0.6 is, however about 3 times that found by Olsen in Colombia and Malaysia, and close to the theoretical maximum. The reason for such a high value may be the small family size in China, where death of a child is more likely to provoke a response. Or it might suggest that severe government policy causes couples to attempt to have another child. Policy implications in this setting are that rather than make more contraceptives available, or improve infant survival, Chinese policymakers should make a small family size attractive, e.g., by improving education or pensions.

Asia↗
PubMed1995

Marital status and earnings in developed countries.

"When estimating earnings equations for men in the United States, a dichotomous variable for whether or not the man is currently married is often included as a regressor. The coefficient estimate for this variable is most usually large and significant. However, there is rarely much discussion of the marriage effect. This effect is central to this study, which contributes to the understanding of this statistical association in two ways. First, it shows that the relationship exists in almost all of the fourteen developed countries examined and across several different time periods. Controlling for age, and, when available, education, race/ethnicity, hours worked, and location, marriage differences in annual earnings in favor of currently married males range from 0% to 30%. Second, it finds that there are important differences between those who are separated, divorced, widowed, and never married."

Age Factors↗
PubMed1990

Capital accumulation, endogenous population growth, and Easterlin cycles.

"In this paper we attempt to explain the occurrence of population cycles in industrialised economies where the birth rate depends on the difference between the actual and the expected consumption rate. This model of an endogenously growing population brings together Easterlin's idea of an adapting aspiration level with the neoclassical optimal growth paradigm. It is shown that in this highly aggregated demo-economic system (i.e., without inclusion of the age structure of a population) swings both in the economic and demographic variables may exist. The reason behind this 'strange' optimal behaviour is identified to be an intertemporal substitution effect between current and future levels of consumption."

Birth Rate↗
PubMed1990

Socioeconomic determinants of fertility in China: a microeconometric analysis.

"This paper reports the first set of estimates of the socioeconomic determinants of fertility in China using micro-data available from China's 1985 In-Depth Fertility Survey. Based on existing microeconomic theories of fertility, an econometric model was specified and estimated. The results indicate that even after age, marriage duration and child mortality are taken into account, education level of the woman, occupational status of the husband, the place of former and current residence, sex preference for boys, durable goods ownership, and family structure affect fertility."

Age Factors↗
PubMed1993

Down syndrome: effects of demographic factors and prenatal diagnosis on the future livebirth prevalence.

In northwest European countries maternal age is increasing. This will lead to an increase of the prevalence of Down syndrome conceptuses. Meanwhile, the increased use of prenatal cytogenetic diagnosis (PCD) will lead to a decrease in the prevalence of Down syndrome among livebirths. We were interested to know what the result of these two opposite developments would be in the near future, and we describe here a model to quantify these processes and the resulting livebirth prevalence of Down syndrome. The model is demonstrated for The Netherlands from 1992 to 2001. The predicted livebirth prevalence for The Netherlands in 1992 is 1.36 per 1000. Demographic factors will cause an increase to 1.76 per 1000 in 2001 with present indications for PCD and a utilization ratio of 50%. An increase of the utilization ratio to 90% in 2001 will lead to a prevalence of 1.22 per 1000, a little less than the present prevalence. Alternative screening programs, including maternal serum screening, could lead to a further decrease of the livebirth prevalence. The model described here can be used for evaluation of the consequences of alternative forms of Down syndrome screening.

Birth Rate↗
PubMed1989

Two earner family migration: a search theoretic approach.

"This paper represents the first attempt to model the two earner family decision to migrate using a joint search theoretic approach. In so doing, the paradox of a couple whose members would both migrate if single but decide not to migrate because they are married to each other is discovered and explained. Furthermore the impact of the rising number of working women and reentry of wives into the labor force on the extent and regional pattern of migration is discussed. Extensions to the model are addressed, as well as future avenues of research, both theoretical and empirical." A geographical focus on the United States is implied.

Americas↗
PubMed1989

Utilitarian pension and retirement policies under population ageing.

The author analyzes population aging and its impact on pension and retirement policies by utilizing a simple utilitarian model for alternative types of pension finance. Findings indicate that "when specific adjustments to population ageing are necessary, changes in the retirement age are preferred to changes in pensions or contributions." A geographical focus on developed countries is implied.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1986

The rate of convergence of a generalized stable population.

In an age-structured population that grows exponentially, each age group pi(t) at period t is asymptotically equivalent to x0t for some positive number x0. In this paper we show that the speed at which the ith age group reaches its exponential state of equilibrium can be measured by the rate at which the ratio vi(t) = pi(t)/pi(t-1) converges to x0. The age specific rate of convergence is determined by considering a quantity r satisfying [vi(t)-x0] less than or equal to rt when t is large; Ri = Inf r (over all initial populations, r satisfying the above inequality) is the R-factor used in numerical analysis to measure the rate at which the sequence vi(t) converges to x0; Si = -1n Ri is then defined as the rate of convergence to stability of the ith age group. The case of constant net maternity rates is studied in detail; in this context S0 is compared to the population entropy H, which was proposed by Tuljapurkar (1982) as a measure of the rate of convergence to stability.

Age Factors↗